Eldritch
01-04-2011, 09:30 AM
Top ten predictions for 2011 include yet another euro crisis, slower growth, retirement at 75 (in Japan), banks to start lending again, India to win the World Cup.
Looking back at our top ten predictions for 2010, we got the big political and economic stories right but our sporting predictions were awful (though we did accurately predict that England would beat Bangladesh at cricket).
...
So here are our top ten predictions for 2011:
1) Yet another eurozonecrisisin the spring if not before, when Spain and Italy have to refinance in aggregate over €400 billion of bonds.
The euro might break up at this point, though European politicians are normally able to respond to a crisis and I suspect that what will break up the euro will be the failure of most of the countries to take the tough medicine necessary to make their economies competitive over the longer term. We give it only a one in five chance of surviving in its present form for ten years. If the euro doesn’t break up, this could be the year when it weakens substantially towards parity with the dollar.
...
http://www.cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/Top-ten-for-2011.pdf
Looking back at our top ten predictions for 2010, we got the big political and economic stories right but our sporting predictions were awful (though we did accurately predict that England would beat Bangladesh at cricket).
...
So here are our top ten predictions for 2011:
1) Yet another eurozonecrisisin the spring if not before, when Spain and Italy have to refinance in aggregate over €400 billion of bonds.
The euro might break up at this point, though European politicians are normally able to respond to a crisis and I suspect that what will break up the euro will be the failure of most of the countries to take the tough medicine necessary to make their economies competitive over the longer term. We give it only a one in five chance of surviving in its present form for ten years. If the euro doesn’t break up, this could be the year when it weakens substantially towards parity with the dollar.
...
http://www.cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/Top-ten-for-2011.pdf