Israel Likely To Attack Iran?

[Sol Invictus]

November 27, 2009

Wayne Madsen On Russia Today: Israel may be motivated by fears that Iran’s nuclear capabilities could soon surpass Israel’s. Can the U.S. use its influence to persuade Israel to avoid such a course of action? Priya Sridhar talks to investigative reporter Wayne Madsen.

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[Svipdag]

Israel has too little to gain by such a course of action to justify the risk. A pyrrhic victory is never worth pursuing, and Israel could hope for nothing better in an outright nuclear war with Iran.

Is Iran likely to attack Israel ? Surely the ayatollahs realise that Israel is under the protection of the United States and, even with a Muslim in the presidency, a nuclear attack on Israel would carry the risk of a counter-strike by the US.

Though the arrogance of Muslim jihadists must not be under-estimated, I seriously doubt that they are ready to precipitate Armageddon just yet.

[Rusalka]

They've been saying an attack is imminate for months (or years) now. Though rumor has it that Natanyahu exchanged a ten-month settlement freeze for America's OK to bomb an Iranian nuclear plant. But I highly doubt Iran's keeping all her babies in just one place, should they have them.

If Iran recognizes she has a nuclear bomb, maybe a nuclear race will ensue in all the ME. Iran is trying to expand its influence in the continent, export the Revolution. Let the Sunnis worry about the sponsor of the Shite minorities getting the bomb.

Is Iran likely to attack Israel ?

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No, not first-handedly, no.

[Sol Invictus]

If Iran recognizes she has a nuclear bomb, maybe a nuclear race will issue in all the ME. Iran is trying to expand its influence in the continent, export the Revolution. Let the Sunnis worry about the sponsor of the Shite minorities getting the bomb.

Interesting scenario; so am I right to assume from this that you believe any Nuclear attack against Israel will be covert, or from within Israel, but with Iranian fingerprints on them?

[Rusalka]

Interesting scenario; so am I right to assume from this that you believe any Nuclear attack against Israel will be covert, or from within Israel, but with Iranian fingerprints on them?

Meh, Iran could very innocently say that some rebel group stole a nuclear bomb. Who would dare attack her in retaliation then?

Iran's being rogue as of late (more than usual), inciting the Houthis in Northern Yemen, so who knows what Saudi Arabia's reaction would be to an Israeli attack in Iran. But it would be naive to believe that, for instance, the sunni Islamic Brotherhood will choose Israel over shite Iran. What Israel does with the tacit approval of Egiptyan politicians, that's a different thing altogether.

[Rusalka]

Iranian lawmaker: Iran could leave nuclear treaty

If Iran withdraws from the treaty, its nuclear program would no longer be subject to oversight by the U.N. nuclear agency

Now they're being stupidly insolent. Nothing precludes them from building a bomb while even having UN members staying in Qom. They could use the other 495960 facilities they surely have. Israel managed to deceive an UN inspection team by placing false walls, for Zion's sake. Or maybe they are flailing because Russia abandoned them.