Andrew Fursov: Russia focuses on the new logic

[silentkiller]

It's pretty good analysis of the current political situation in Russia, in my opinion.
I liked the article, I decided to translate it to English and post thread here. Enjoy

Andrey Fursov: Russia focuses on the new logic
"There's the logic of intentions and the logic of circumstances"

After solving the Crimean issue, Russia has demonstrated change of its course to the general global community. Now, logically, the changes within the country itself should happen - "courteous" cleaning of the "fifth column", industrialization, nationalization of the elites, a dismissal of the officials, who are not ready to conduct a policy of confrontation. Let us recall, however, that the father of all nations, Joseph Stalin used to say - "there's the logic of intentions and the logic of circumstances, and the latter is always stronger". Historian Andrey Fursov told to Nakanune.ru of the logic of the "post-Crimean" Russia, the possibility of sabotage and color revolutions.

Question: Will the Crimea and its reunification with Russia, the patriotic charge that the country received after the Olympics and the successful operation of the peninsula, become the impetus for the real modernization, industrialization, if you want, of our country?

Andrey Fursov: It is too early to talk about it. My intuition suggests that everything happened too recently for any steps and even more so for the conclusions. By the May, it will be clear whether to wait for changes or will be a quiet sabotage.

Question: But, it's possible to conclude, already even on those sanctions, which were imposed to Russia, that the West itself has launched the process of nationalization of the elite, or rather - it helped us in this?

Andrey Fursov: We must nationalize elite ourselves and there must be will of the political leadership to do this.

Question: You, as it turns out, do not share the optimism which is being broadcasted now in the patriotic community?

Andrey Fursov: Events in the Crimea made a ​​deep impression on me as well. And I am really optimistic and happy together with the main mass of our population that Crimea reunited with the country. The mere fact that in this area, there were leaders, who led the people behind them, speaks volumes. It distinguishes favorably the Crimea from Donetsk or Lugansk, where the sentiments of the people are pro-Russian too, but there was no leaders. The victory in the reunification of the Crimea with Russia, is very important in symbolic terms. Ended the era that began with the betrayal of Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Moreover, now we live in a different world. The world has changed.
But as Stalin used to say, "there is the logic of intentions and the logic of circumstances". The worse will be our relationships with the West, the more chances there are that the nationalization of elite will happen, and we'll finally turn the "fifth column" off.

Question: But is it the primary task now: To disperse conditional "Dozhd'" or dismiss collective Venediktov from "Ekho Moskvy"? You'll be satisfied, if the TV channel "Rain" will not exist anymore, but nothing will change absolutely in economic terms? Besides, we see already, as the opposition changes its language before our eyes, even more - "changes its shoes", as people say.

Andrey Fursov: No, in a situation of tense relations with the West, having a "fifth column" is an unaffordable luxury, in economic terms too. Everything should be done in the complex, but the first step is political and legal remedies of the "fifth column". And then already, the real economic changes that need to dismantle the economic reforms of 1990's. Let me explain why I think so. The deterioration of relations with the West is a long-term process, it is necessary to be ready for this. It should be understood that the neoliberal economy will not give us the opportunity to even survive this confrontation, not that to win. The only way out is mobilizational economy. And there is a serious problem. The current elite, most of them, are not ready to switch to rails of the mobilizational economy, they will simply sabotage this process, and our further confrontation with the West, logically will cause conflict within the ruling elite and all the ensuing consequences.

Question: It's an interesting issue, Putin's address in St. George's Hall in the Kremlin was greeted by general applause, full support, but among those, who applauded the president's speech, there were many officials, who are absolutely incompetent for a new political and economic situation. And they will not leave themselves, if they are still there.

Andrey Fursov: Yes, indeed they are incompetent. These people were educated in the habit of comfortable lifestyle, unlikely that they will be satisfied with a long-term confrontation. Therefore, I believe that the struggle within the elite also will be increasing.

Question: But this serious ideological split, means that the Russian Maidan will begin inevitably, is not it?

Andrey Fursov: The colour revolutions, you want to say. Last Maidan is already something else. Color revolution is just a change of regime in relatively peaceful way. Yes, we remember that there have been protests at the Bolotnaya Square in Moscow. There is no doubt that at the aggravation of the situation, "the fifth column" will try to destabilize the situation by the same "against corruption" slogans. These slogans are not new, they sounded also in Yugoslavia and in Egypt, but they are effective, more than one regime was taken down with them. We shouldn't go far, the USSR also was brought down like it. But I think our people remember the events of 1993 quite well and I hope that we will not step on the same rake a second time.

Question: Once again, the lessons of the last Maidan...

Andrey Fursov: Maidan is a lesson to good fellows. We saw a lot. The participants of Maidan were saying directly what is this. Timoshenko said straight that the Maidan is an example for all fighters against dictators at the former Soviet Union territories. It's clear what "dictator" she was referring to in the first place. And descendant of a war criminal Shukhevich said that a new series of anti-Soviet revolutions begin with Maidan, but instead of the Soviet Union, Russia will become the aim, as a basis for creating a new Russian empire. I hope people, including leaders of the country, understood what is what.

Question: Meanwhile, the patriotic camp, presented in the mass media, celebrates the victory and believes that the new course is inevitable, do you agree?

Andrey Fursov: As a historian, I can say that there is nothing inevitable in history. The turn in domestic policy is very likely, but again, I remind a quote of Stalin: "There is the logic of intentions and the logic of circumstances, and the logic of circumstances is always stronger". Annexation of the Crimea, certainly was about to happen. The deterioration of our relations with the West is logical now. The external political situation creates the necessary conditions for this, but also there must be the political will of the leadership itself. Because the contradiction between the sovereign course and preservation of raw nature of the economy creates poignancy, which should be resolved one way or another. But on the other hand, the country gained a very strong liberal inertia in the last 20 years and the process of stopping and the new turn is not going to be painless. I'm sure, people will support this change, and we will see in the near future, if the leadership is willing to go this route also. But I'm still an optimist.
In any case, very interesting times await us.

Question: The painful measures - what are these?

Andrey Fursov: The termination of liberal course, curtailment of liberal reforms, cleaning of the "fifth column" in the government, business and media. Of course, it's political and legal cleaning, but according to the laws. Whether these will be all the measures? In Russia now, a lot depends on the will of single person.

Question: By the way, is it okay? That everything depends on single person?

Andrey Fursov: But it's always like it in Russia. The political will of Ivan the Terrible or Stalin played a large part in the presence of equilibrium of different groups. Yes, they were governing with the support of certain groups, nobody will work without this - simply nothing will come out, but with balance of interests, the will of one person was playing a crucial role. Like my late teacher said, Khomeini played a bigger role in certain situations, than the alignment of political forces in Tehran in 1978-1979. You do not need a strong volitional impetus, gently push is enough, for the system to take a course and not to swerve from the path. For example, Ivan the Terrible unwrapped Russia for several centuries, using his Oprichnina, although the Oprichnina existed only foy seven years. Then there were Boyar troubles and a lot more, but, nevertheless, Conciliar Ulozhenie was accepted a few decades later. I hope, the Annexation of the Crimea also will become such impetus.

Question: How do you know that the ship has changed its course? What are the signs?

Andrey Fursov: When the most odious figures will leave the government, and they will be replaced, for example, by the presidential advisor Sergei Glazyev. The cadres decide everything.

Question: Well, for example, all are tired to predict the Medvedev's resignation, but he is not about to leave.

Andrey Fursov: To understand why there is no resignation and whether it will be, you need to be inside. I do not support fortune-telling on some scraps of phrases and searching for signals.

Source: http://www.nakanune.ru/articles/18820/

[glass]

Patriotism itself can not industrilze Russia or feed our stomach.
Russia should be better cleared from all those guys who have money, kids, wifes in the west, while in Russia they are just working (aka stealing money from budget). In this case i want hard economical sanctions from EU (hopelessly i guess). People who do not see their future life in Russia is real fifth column, not just crazy and mentally ill "pro-western liberals". They have good entertainment value after all. Also they are perfect at descrediting western propaganda about freedom and democracy, attempts to bring Russia to big european family and all other similar crap.
If government lock Echo of Moscow somebody else would fill vacuum and new "sources of information" would be much worse and retarded than (sometimes) reasonable journalists from Echo of Moscow

[silentkiller]

Patriotism itself can not industrailze Russia or feed our stomach.
Russia should be better cleared from all those guys who have money, kids, wifes in the west, while in Russia they are just working (aka stealing money from budget).

I guess, this is the future struggle Fursov is talking about, these people will not leave so simply their belongings and position in society.

In this case i want hard economical sanctions from EU (hopelessly I guess ). People who do not see their future life in Russia is real fifth column, not just crazy and mentally ill "pro-western liberals".

Agree on that.

They have good entertainment value after all.

Just look at Novodroskaya. It's like political showbizz. I mean I wouldn't like such ppl rule big country.

Also they are perfect at descrediting western propaganda about freedom and democracy, attempts to bring Russia to big european family and all other similar crap.

In my opinion, Echo of Moscow are usual russophobes - they just do not like Russia, and seek justification for their dislike by any means.