Belarus divorcing from Russia

[Zmey Gorynych]

His status with the eu won't change unless.

He allows opposition to rally and not be monitored or harassed.

If he plays the West's game his status will change in a heartbeat.

[Siberyak]

If he plays the West's game his status will change in a heartbeat.

Meaning loosening his grip on power. We shall see. Remember the "west" (if you even know what that means) had saddam hussein as an ally at one time against iran

[Jehan]

If he plays the West's game his status will change in a heartbeat.

If he play the West game, soon or late he will quit the power.

[Zmey Gorynych]

If he play the West game, soon or late he will quit the power.

Eventually he will lose power or simply retire from public life but it wont happen immediately. He's 60 now, if he makes the switch from east to west he'll win the next elections and probably those after that without any kind of problem and by the end of his 6th term he'll be 70+. He didn't assassinate journalists and did not start wars, the west and his people will turn a blind eye to his 20+ years of quasi-dictatorial reign.

[Jehan]

Meaning loosening his grip on power. We shall see. Remember the "west" (if you even know what that means) had saddam hussein as an ally at one time against iran

And where is saddam now?
The west can tell Lukashenko everything he wants to heard. The fact is that he is just a tool use against Russia. When the tool will stop to be usefull, West will drop him and put a "democratic" governement who share the western view instead.

Russians have a lot of defects but they never let one of their ally down without try to help. Its not the case of Western. Lukashenko will probably be disapoint.
But it's a good thing for belarussians people.

[Not a Cop]

President Lukashenko of Belarus has recently made 180 degree policy change. Belarus is now looking to western direction and even promised to help Ukraine. Russian MPs are mad and accuse Lukashenko of betrayal. Putinist policies of Russia are making their friend list very, very short. Are we heading to Ukraine-like crisis at Belarus or can Russia take this divorce in more civilized manner ?

You and me both know what Lukashenko policies are about - not long after he came to power he understood two facts:
1. EU wouldn't like his authorian methods and not long after he will ally with them he will be removed.
2. Russia is way too big and powerfull to be an equal ally for Belarus. Alliance with Russia will mean that he either will be degraded to the level of governor of Belarussian province, or even worser - will be removed.

So there was only way for him - to be neutrall, but due to the fact that both EU and Russia has enough power to infuence internal policies of Belarus he has to side with Russia or EU from time to time.

And he does it well! Economical help from both sides helps Belarussian economy a lot.

Last years were the "Russian" period, now propably the "EU" period comes. Nothing new.

[Zmey Gorynych]

Russians have a lot of defects but they never let one of their ally down without try to help.

Another myth, Serbia and Armenia comes to mind, not to mention the former soviet republics that russians invaded over the years.

[Jehan]

Another myth, Serbia and Armenia comes to mind, not to mention the former soviet republics that russians invaded over the years.

For Serbia, i have no idea.

For Armenia, Russians were ally to Azerbadjan. Like they were ally in both sides they choose to not choose.

[Siberyak]

And where is saddam now?
The west can tell Lukashenko everything he wants to heard. The fact is that he is just a tool use against Russia. When the tool will stop to be usefull, West will drop him and put a "democratic" governement who share the western view instead.

Russians have a lot of defects but they never let one of their ally down without try to help. Its not the case of Western. Lukashenko will probably be disapoint.
But it's a good thing for belarussians people.

That's a fact. remember The usa supported saddam in his war against Iran but when he threatened to trade Oil in Euros instead of dollars that was then end of him. So all this bullshit talk about the west's moral authority should end

[Hweinlant]

LOOOOL, Chechnya's next and after that Tatarstan and Siberia

Russia got played big time this year. The Eurasian Union may not come to exist. The whole thing should've started January the 1st. LOOOL

Yes, the great strategist, chess master and tactical genius has had a great 2014. All Russia's strategic foreign policy initiatives have simply failed. There is one partner to lose before loosing Russian "republics". That's Kazakhstan. I would like to hear your educated guesstimate about '15 developments at that front. Will Kazakhstan re-orient itself towards China as Eurasian Union is nothing more than "carcass of co-operation" ?