Belarus divorcing from Russia

[Hweinlant]

You and me both know what Lukashenko policies are about - not long after he came to power he understood two facts:
1. EU wouldn't like his authorian methods and not long after he will ally with them he will be removed.
2. Russia is way too big and powerfull to be an equal ally for Belarus. Alliance with Russia will mean that he either will be degraded to the level of governor of Belarussian province, or even worser - will be removed.

We have pretty aligned understanding here. Lukashenko playing the role of Humpty Dumpty between EU and Russia. This strategy will fail, like it failed for Yanukovych. Lukashenko can play that card only for some time and then he must choose. I think he tries to use Ukraine as stepping stone to co-operation with EU and use EU's Eastern Partnership as his new foreign policy initiative. Basically he will ditch Putin as Putin can not bribe him off anymore.

Apparently there is pretty strong nationalist tendency at Belarus, which spells bad for Russia as nationalist circles at Belarus see Russia as existential threat not only for their state but for their ethnic group. Lukashenko seems to be aligning with these forces, who just a year ago were pushed and kept in marginal. Let's keep in mind that large swathes of Russian Federation are ethnically Belarusian rather than Russian. I'm speaking about Smolensk and thereabouts. They were stolen from Belarusians and gifted to Russia by the bolsheviks, like so many other regions.

[Raven_]

I'd guess many people at Belarus are pretty scared after Russia annexed Crimea. Why wouldn't they do that to Belarus ?

Russia mainly used 'oppressed Russian minority' card in Crimea to instigate local Russians. The exact moment at which Russian minority became seriously oppressed was when Ukrainian parliament showed an intention to change language-related laws. That can not be the case in Belarus as Russian is already the dominant language. Also, Lukaeshnko, as auhoritarian leader, has tools to manage situation quicker than Ukrainian parliament. Furthermore , the starting point, 'bloody overturn of a democratically elected leader' just didn't happen in Belarus, there are no neo-nazis (equivalents of 'banderovtsi' and what not), possibly the epithet that defines the utmost enemy of Russian people, running around.

Lukashenko is simply trying to avoid negative consequence of the Russian financial collapse.

F.ex.
Ruble collapse: Belarus leader Lukashenko calls for halt on trade in Russian rubles
35.4% of Belarus' exports go to Russia, with 59.3% of its imports coming the other way. It's thought that more than 90% of these transactions are denominated in Russia ruble, which has led to a loss in revenue of $739m over the first 10 months of the year, despite volumes remaining steady.

[Hweinlant]

Russia mainly used 'oppressed Russian minority' card in Crimea to instigate local Russians. The exact moment at which Russian minority became seriously oppressed was when Ukrainian parliament showed an intention to change language-related laws. That can not be the case in Belarus as Russian is already the dominant language. Also, Lukaeshnko, as auhoritarian leader, has tools to manage situation quicker than Ukrainian parliament. Furthermore , the starting point, 'bloody overturn of a democratically elected leader' just didn't happen in Belarus, there are no neo-nazis (equivalents of 'banderovtsi' and what not , , possibly the epithet that defines the utmost enemy of Russian people, running around.

They can use other narratives. Moscow media will spin it 24/7. "Belarus is not a real country", "Belarus was created by communists", "Belarus was always part of Russia", "Minsk is our Jerusalem". You get the point. Maybe they liberate Belarus from evil fascists with proactive strike. .

[Raven_]

They can use other narratives. Moscow media will spin it 24/7. "Belarus is not a real country", "Belarus was created by communists", "Belarus was always part of Russia", "Minsk is our Jerusalem". You get the point. Maybe they liberate Belarus from evil fascists with proactive strike. .

Either there must be some pre-existing strongly expressed sentiment or something big must happen.
Putin probably doesn't want Lukashenko removed as it would be unclear whether Maidan-like protesters would not end up wining. The current turn in Lukashenko's views do not seem to be dictated by people's inspirations. His new pro-EU position may appeal to some groups, obviously, but dealing with one person is easier than with millions of people. Especially when they may hold even more differing views. You said: Lukashenko playing the role of Humpty Dumpty between EU and Russia. This strategy will fail, like it failed for Yanukovych. Lukashenko can play that card only for some time and then he must choose. But Yanukovych was really choosing between appeasing masses vs. some other masses and Putin. On the op of that, Ukraine is in a such situation that neither direction would have guaranteed bright future. Ukraine is asking EU to give her money, but how long will it last? Ukraine is not a role-model situation. Despite masses' aspirations, future is bleak which i find incredibly sad. I just don't believe Lukashenko will jump into the same train. Just like that.

[Raven_]

Oh, and I don't understand why you think Putin would create turmoil specifically in Belarus. There are Russians who decided not to go on vacation to Baltic States out of fear of getting killed this summer Instigating clashes between Russians and ethnic pribaltiks would be a much safer move.

[Leto]

Hweinlant, do you have any other interests, besides your hatred toward Russia? I've never seen you posting on other topics, only about something related to Russia (always negative). I'm afraid you are just paranoid.

[Borna]

Keep on dreaming you fucks.
Bear is going to eat you all on the end.

[Raven_]

Hweinlant, do you have any other interests, besides your hatred toward Russia? I've never seen you posting on other topics, only about something related to Russia (always negative). I'm afraid you are just paranoid.

Right, he should join you in countless threads about USA. I am sometimes ashamed that a fellow Eastern Euro is the first one to talk about domestic American issues to a point where you know more than some actual Americans. You're making me feel uneasy.

[Leto]

Right, he should join you in countless threads about USA. I am sometimes ashamed that a fellow Eastern Euro is the first one to talk about domestic American issues to a point where you know more than some actual Americans. You're making me feel uneasy.

I am not your fellow. And most Americans don't mind me discussing their issues. I've never created a hateful or disrespectful thread about America. On the contrary, many of them agree with me and give me thumbs up.

[Borna]

Russophobia reached critical level on this site. It is so heated up to a point that people do not write anything on their own sections nor topics related to their own people, but feel happiness and joy when speaking some shitty things about Russia. What is even more sad is that many of those people are Slavs.

I understand inferior nations who got bullied by a bear for a long time, they see their opportunity to give their miserable contribution to potential Russian demise. Those are people with serious inferiority complex and they require psychiatrists. What sickens me most are Slavs who advocate Western "Drang nach Osten". Those people gave up their complete history and blood for the handfull of dollars.

They do not realize that if Russia is going down, everyone will go down with her.