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We have pretty aligned understanding here. Lukashenko playing the role of Humpty Dumpty between EU and Russia. This strategy will fail, like it failed for Yanukovych. Lukashenko can play that card only for some time and then he must choose. I think he tries to use Ukraine as stepping stone to co-operation with EU and use EU's Eastern Partnership as his new foreign policy initiative. Basically he will ditch Putin as Putin can not bribe him off anymore.
Apparently there is pretty strong nationalist tendency at Belarus, which spells bad for Russia as nationalist circles at Belarus see Russia as existential threat not only for their state but for their ethnic group. Lukashenko seems to be aligning with these forces, who just a year ago were pushed and kept in marginal. Let's keep in mind that large swathes of Russian Federation are ethnically Belarusian rather than Russian. I'm speaking about Smolensk and thereabouts. They were stolen from Belarusians and gifted to Russia by the bolsheviks, like so many other regions.
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