Belarus divorcing from Russia

[Not a Cop]

Russia mainly used 'oppressed Russian minority' card in Crimea to instigate local Russians. The exact moment at which Russian minority became seriously oppressed was when Ukrainian parliament showed an intention to change language-related laws. That can not be the case in Belarus as Russian is already the dominant language. Also, Lukaeshnko, as auhoritarian leader, has tools to manage situation quicker than Ukrainian parliament. Furthermore , the starting point, 'bloody overturn of a democratically elected leader' just didn't happen in Belarus, there are no neo-nazis (equivalents of 'banderovtsi' and what not), possibly the epithet that defines the utmost enemy of Russian people, running around.

Lukashenko is simply trying to avoid negative consequence of the Russian financial collapse.

F.ex.
Ruble collapse: Belarus leader Lukashenko calls for halt on trade in Russian rubles
35.4% of Belarus' exports go to Russia, with 59.3% of its imports coming the other way. It's thought that more than 90% of these transactions are denominated in Russia ruble, which has led to a loss in revenue of $739m over the first 10 months of the year, despite volumes remaining steady.

Actually Belarus as a sovereign nation is in much tricker sitiation than Ukraine is.

Lets imagine this scenario - Lukashenko distances from Russia as much as possible. Something happens inside the country (economical crisis for example) and population starts to blame the old dictator. Either democratical or nationalist powers or both at the same time decide that they are powerfull enough to make a revolution and remove Lukashenko.

People are on streets, countless meetings, protests etc. Lukashenko understands that his days are counted and not much else he can do.

And than as a rabbit from out magician hat the Union State of Russia and Belarus appears. Not much people know, but Russians and Belarussians already live in some sort of federation, in few days Lukashenko trades with Russia for better conditions for himself. Few hours agfter signing of all nedeed documents Pskov division enters Belarus, and everything is over in a couple of days.

Pretty possible scenario IMO.

[Borna]

Actually Belarus as a sovereign nation is in much tricker sitiation than Ukraine are.

Lets imagine this scenario - Lukashenko distances from Russia as much as possible. Something happens inside the country (economical crisis for example) and population starts to blame the old dictator. Either democratical or nationalist powers or both at the same time decide that they are powerfull enough to make a revolution and remove Lukashenko.

People are on streets, countless meetings, protests etc. Lukashenko understands that his days are counted and not much else he can do.

And than as a rabbit from out magician hat the Union State of Russia and Belarus appears. Not much people know, but Russians and Belarussians already live in some sort of federation, in few days Lukashenko trades with Russia for better conditions for himself. Few hours agfter signing of all nedeed documents Pskov division enters Belarus, and everything is over in a couple of days.

Pretty possible scenario IMO.

How strong are ties with Belarusian people with Russia ? I mean do people of Belarus feel Russia as their older brother, and do they feel Russia as their country as well ?

[Raven_]

Not a Cop, Belarus and Russia have already signed a treaty that allows Russia to participate in domestic Belarusian conflicts sometime in the past.

[Not a Cop]

Not a Cop, Belarus and Russia have already signed a treaty that allows Russia to participate in domestic Belarusian conflicts sometime in the past.

Haven't read of that, but sounds possible. Actually many people think that Union state was an attempt of Lukashenko to come to power in Russia, keeping in mind a weak Eltsin in end of 90-s it sounds pretty possible, at start of this project it was mainly Lukashenko, who pushed it.

How strong are ties with Belarusian people with Russia ? I mean do people of Belarus feel Russia as their older brother, and do they feel Russia as their country as well ?

I don't know much about Belarussians, only thing i can say that anti-russians rhetoric is not a base of Belarussian nationalists unlike of Banderovtsi movement.

Also studies showed that about 90% of Belarussians use russian language in everyday life, so their culture isn't much different from mainstream Russian one.

[La Misse]

)

[Jehan]

I take a look on wikipedia. It seems that belarussian nationalist are pro western and close to polish.
Also 80% of the population are belarussians, the situation is very different than in Crimea. Russian army will not take Belarussia without shoot a fire. And we can bet that the guerilla/nationalist movement will have an active help from the other country.

[glass]

Lukashenko is just trying to milk cow (Russia). But he would never trade alliance with Russia for alliance with EU/US. Russia is much more reliable partner for him himself and his country. Also russians historicaly prefer deal with what they have/given, unlike west which is always trying to change and shape countries in their own interests.

[Linebacker]

It was to be expected.Nobody wants to stay on or near a sinking ship.A smart person would want to take a lifeboat.

[Loki]

President Lukashenko of Belarus has recently made 180 degree policy change. Belarus is now looking to western direction and even promised to help Ukraine. Russian MPs are mad and accuse Lukashenko of betrayal. Putinist policies of Russia are making their friend list very, very short. Are we heading to Ukraine-like crisis at Belarus or can Russia take this divorce in more civilized manner ?

Of course, this has got to be a Hweinlant thread. Fellas, don't take this guy's posts seriously. He's an obsessive Russia-hater. I'm surprised I haven't banned him yet. But he isn't breaking forum rules.

[Zmey Gorynych]

Yes, the great strategist, chess master and tactical genius has had a great 2014. All Russia's strategic foreign policy initiatives have simply failed. There is one partner to lose before loosing Russian "republics". That's Kazakhstan. I would like to hear your educated guesstimate about '15 developments at that front. Will Kazakhstan re-orient itself towards China as Eurasian Union is nothing more than "carcass of co-operation" ?

Kazakhstan has already intensified its partnership with China, the kazakhs are the regions largest oil suppliers to China and the chinese have bought one of the largest oil companies in Kazakhstan, there's also the pipeline built by the chinese which takes kazakh oil to China's border meaning the end of the russian infrastructural monopoly in the country. That's all good news for Kazakh economy however they can not afford to completely fall into China's hands. Regardless of what happens to Russia (whether it remains an independent player or becomes the West's plaything) Kazakhstan must balance their growing links with China with their relationship with the partner in the west (whoever it may be). I don't think 15 will bring drastic changes in Kazakhstan's foreign policy. A lot will depend on how fast things develop in Russia. If the kazakhs are smart they can profit greatly from Putin's demise and become a true central asian leader and increase their energy exports in Asia at the expense of Russia.