Belarus divorcing from Russia

[LightHouse89]

Plutocratic America vs Plutocratic Russia? Which one is the best? Neither.

[glass]

little advice for all strategists who are sharing their expectations of post-Putin or post-russian world
Do not count your chickens before they hatch

[Rugevit]

We have pretty aligned understanding here. Lukashenko playing the role of Humpty Dumpty between EU and Russia. This strategy will fail, like it failed for Yanukovych. Lukashenko can play that card only for some time and then he must choose. I think he tries to use Ukraine as stepping stone to co-operation with EU and use EU's Eastern Partnership as his new foreign policy initiative. Basically he will ditch Putin as Putin can not bribe him off anymore.

Lukashenko has been doing this for the last 15 years or so. He has been accredited for having political instincts, even by his political enemies. Yanukovich was an amateur in comparison to Lukashenko.

Apparently there is pretty strong nationalist tendency at Belarus, which spells bad for Russia as nationalist circles at Belarus see Russia as existential threat not only for their state but for their ethnic group. Lukashenko seems to be aligning with these forces, who just a year ago were pushed and kept in marginal. Let's keep in mind that large swathes of Russian Federation are ethnically Belarusian rather than Russian. I'm speaking about Smolensk and thereabouts. They were stolen from Belarusians and gifted to Russia by the bolsheviks, like so many other regions.

TUT.BY is considered the most popular information portal in Belarus with about 2 million visitors daily. The majority of visitors are residents of Belarus. This is not an opposition or anti-government on portal. There was a poll on the portal recently : TUT.BY -- Poll

If a referendum was held on Belarus entering the Eurasian Economic Union [union with Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries] , how would you vote?

Results:

For - 20.12% (1581 votes)
Against - 78.98% (6207)
Your answer - 0.90 (71)



The independent institute of socio-economic & political study (IISEPS) based in Vilnius ran a survey 6 months ago finding around 55% of Belarusians were against union with Russia, while 20-24% for the union. The rest were undecided. So similar results with small numbers supporting the union with Russia as in the poll on TUT.BY. Surveys of this institute are most trusted by many analysts. The opinion of Belarusians about the EU has been changing, since Belarusian began to travel more around Europe. Today, Belarusians receive more Schengen visa per capita than residents of any other country. People are viewing EU positively now.

The sentiments towards union with Russia is similar among people of Kazakhstan. There would not be such a union if referendums were held in Belarus and Kazakhstan. Friends of Russia are Nazarbayev and Lukashenko, who will not be in power forever. The Belarusian oppositions stated that last 3 presidential elections were rigged and Lukashenko government is illegitimate,so are the agreements between Belarus and Russia.

----

As for Lukashenko divorcing Russia is media nonsense. Relations between Belarus and Russia over trade were far worse in the past. The difference this time is conflict in Ukraine. Belarus cannot divorce Russia while relying on the Russian market on which Belarus sells most of her manufactured goods receiving cheap energy sources from Russia. The export to Russia was 49% of total export of Belarus last year. Belarus sells manufactured goods to Russia, while oil-made products, chemicals and fertilisers are sold to EU and other countries. A lot of people are employed in manufacturing industry. Kazakhstan is in a better position than Belarus in this regard.

Both Lukashenko and Nazarbayev visited Ukraine meeting Poroshenko in Kiev in the light of new negotiations between rebels in south-eastern Ukraine and Kiev authorities. They probably met Poroshenko on request of Kremlin. Lukashenko has been playing friendly to Ukraine ever since the conflict began in Ukraine, which disappointed some nationalists in Russia. Ukraine is the 2nd largest trading partner of Belarus after Russia, which Lukashenko does not want to loose. Lukashenko knows very well he will be swept from the government if the Belarusian economy fails completely. Lukashenko came to power in the 90s when the economy of Belarus was failing and people were taking to the streets.

[Rugevit]

A country can only be a vassal or an enemy of Russia. There is no other option. Russia has no friends and it will never have friends. I mean true friends and dictators and puppets relying on Kremlin's support.

[Borna]

A country can only be a vassal or an enemy of Russia. There is no other option. Russia has no friends and it will never have friends. I mean true friends and dictators and puppets relying on Kremlin's support.

On the other hand you can be fully recognized ally and friend with USA, with a equal position, rid of their influence in your country, economically supported, you are guaranteed have complete independence, phones, computers and emails of your country and high ranking politicians never gonna be wired or similar. Of course it is guaranteed that once you done your work, you won't be bombed, hunted and killed like an animal. Such a pretty democratic paradise USA is, both to her and her allies.

[Loki]

I hope everyone realises this is a troll thread created by a troll.

[glass]

For - 20.12% (1581 votes)
Against - 78.98% (6207)
Your answer - 0.90 (71)

2m visitors and less than 10k votes? mmmkay

The independent institute based in Vilnius

please...
this sounds like virgin porn star

Look at recent elections in Moldavia. "Pro-european" politicians in power, one "pro-russian" party banned right before elections, every second moldovan working abroad is in Russia, yet only 5 voting stations abroad out of 125 were opened in Russia. Despite all this, so called pro-european parties got only 45% votes. Why would Belarus have worse attitude towards Russia. Total propaganda and/or coup is only way make to people anti-russian

[Shepherd]

Last thing Id expect from Belarus

[Illancha]

Lukashenko is a funny character. Every time he's mentioned I re-watch this video (sure he's not saying it to compliment ):



Now there's a man I can see eye-to-eye with.

I hope everyone realises this is a troll thread created by a troll.

Are you calling someone a troll because you disagree with him on politics?

[Loki]

Are you calling someone a troll because you disagree with him on politics?

No, never have.