Belarus divorcing from Russia

**~~Zmey Gorynych~~** · 12-23-2014, 10:33 AM

Originally Posted by glasses

This elections proved that people in soviet states do not tend to link incompetence of their politicians and overall bad situation in economy with Russia. Neither independant NGOs nor independants instutites can change that. Pre-coup Ukraine had 50/50, Moldova showed (despite all) 45/38. From my experience with belarussians, they are far more satisfied with Lukashenko than ukrainians with their president(s). So any survey that shows 20% supporters of union with Russia is 100% bullshit. This numbers at least 60% if not more.

Those independant institutes survey only tiny "right" minority then call it opinion of belarussian people

I take it you think 45/38 (which ultimately turned out to be 63/20) is a good result for Russia. It's actually very bad, anything but a pro-russian government in Moldova is bad news for Russia. Had the left-wing won they would've federalized the country and transnistrian political figures would've taken control. Moldova could've been used against Ukraine, now that possibility is gone.

You used "despite all" a second time. I'm curious to know how many more people do you think would've voted if more voting stations were allowed in Russia? I'm ready to bet that very few, in any case not enough to change the outcome of the election.

Ukraine may have been divided before the maidan but after the november elections pro-russian parties took what 10%? It's quite clear where Ukraine and Moldova is heading. I'm not sure how reliable that opinion poll regarding Belarus is but as you said belarusians are far more satisfied with Lukashenko than ukrainians were with their presidents and if the president tells them to look west that's what they'll do. Right now Lukashenko is making a U-turn, probably someone is whispering in his ear, he may know something (things to come) and he's preparing the ground. Belarus wont be turned like Ukraine, there will be no miadan or coup d'etat, everything will be done softely.

**glass** · 12-23-2014, 11:13 AM

Originally Posted by Zmey Gorynych

I take it you think 45/38 (which ultimately turned out to be 63/20) is a good result for Russia.

i am not talking about what is good for Russia. Actualy 100/0 would be best for Russia, because i want my country break from all those Moldavias, Ukraines and alike. I am for russian national state. I am glad to see any anti-russian sentiments as it works best for Russia in long term.
I just tell you that 38% voted for union with Russia. Ploticians are always ready to prostitute especialy in countries like Moldavia, Bulgaria and alike. But it does not change simple fact that 38% voted so called eurasian union.

You used "despite all" a second time. I'm curious to know how many more people do you think would've voted if more voting stations were allowed in Russia? I'm ready to bet that very few, in any case not enough to change the outcome of the election.

you mentioned party that did not make into parliament. If more people voted they could get in, so "pro-european" parties would have less share there.

Ukraine may have been divided before the maidan but after the november elections pro-russian parties took what 10%?

If you are being bombarded with anti-russian propaganda you would eventualy believe it. Nothing really special. Because all russian media sources were banned just right after coup.

**~~Zmey Gorynych~~** · 12-23-2014, 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by glasses

Actualy 100/0 would be best for Russia, because i want my country break from all those Moldavias, Ukraines and alike. I am for russian national state. I am glad to see any anti-russian sentiments as it works best for Russia in long term

I hope you become president one day, sooner rather than later.

**Hweinlant** · 12-23-2014, 12:02 PM

Originally Posted by Zmey Gorynych

Right now Lukashenko is making a U-turn, probably someone is whispering in his ear, he may know something (things to come) and he's preparing the ground. Belarus wont be turned like Ukraine, there will be no miadan or coup d'etat, everything will be done softely.

I can imagine many small voices whispering to his ear, although none is really required for his U-turn. Belarus beasically exports only to Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are in recession due their conflict. If positive prognosis for Russian economy is -5% and negative around -15/20% drop in GDP, Lukashenko seriously needs to seek better relations with west. Economical base of Belarus will melt with disappearance of their export markets. Situation in the ground is already pretty darn serious as Central Bank hiked interest rate to 26% yesterday and capital controls are put in effect. When the storm hits Russian markets with full force in early '15, there will be mass unemployment, riots and whole shebang. Lukashenko must distance himself as far as possible from the looming chaos at Russia.