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What is worth noting is it depends on where in Sicily. SE Sicily definitely has more Greek input than Calabria... the people there shift northeast (toward Russia) relative to Sicilians, and thus land right near Peloponnesian Greeks. Norman input brings the island a bit north, but not significantly.
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Sikeliot, a couple of points I want to make because I think you are assuming that what shifts Sicilians northward than they would otherwise be is Greek input into an otherwise heavily West Asian/Middle East genome in Sicily. I think we need to be cautious about that.
First of all, as a tangent - the Norman contribution, genetically, to Sicily is extremely low. Extremely. Except in areas of clear Norman influence like Palermo, Corleone, Piazza Armerina, etc. - the Normans just do not have the numbers. Normans never migrated to Sicily in any meaningful numbers. Rather, the Norman culture (and along with it, Latin-Rite Catholicism) was imposed by a political elite. The Norman presence is meaningful, but the genetic contribution - I simply do not see the evidence for it.
Second, to say that southeast Sicily is more Greek than Calabria, I think is just wrong. I know you're saying this because you wonder how else to explain why SE Sicily shifts northward of Calabria - so it must be the Greeks, right? But consider, there are still ENTIRE VILLAGES in Calabria that speak Greek. Certain neighborhoods even in MESSINA still spoke Greek until a few decades ago, and the surrounding towns and villages still spoke Greek until the Catholic Counter-Reformation. Maybe what is shifting SE Sicily northward is not that it is MORE Greek, but a different type of Greek - Dorian - whereas Messina and Calabria were mostly Ionian settlements. In any case, SE Sicily is not *significantly* more northward shifting than Calabria, is it? To tell people who still speak Greek in Calabrian villages that they are less Greek than someone in Ragusa just doesn't make any sense.
Moreover, genetic flow and cultural ties between the Straits area and mainland Greece has never fully subsided. After the fall of Constantinople, more Greeks migrated to Messina than anywhere else in the West with the possible exception of Venice, and Messina was until recently even still considered an important center of Greek learning. I believe the Archbishop of Messina still has some Greek-rite duties he has to attend to. As far as I'm aware, there hasn't been the same kind of connection between Syracuse/SE Sicily and Greece since perhaps ancient times.
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SE Sicily was the center of Greek culture on the island in ancient times.
Greeks in Messina and Catania were mostly from Anatolia and the Aegean (Crete, Dodecanese), those in Ragusa and Syracuse were from the Peloponnese. But I do think it is possible that more of the people in Messina were Hellenized natives rather than genetic Greeks. People in Messina are not genetically very different from Palermo, and Palermo was not a center of Greek migration.
Calabria having a lot of Greek-speaking villages might not imply genetic input. Pontic Greeks speak Greek, but they're mostly Hellenized Caucasus people. Same with Cypriots, who are genetically close to the Levant.
Norman input is mostly in Trapani province, but more along the coasts. Some towns in Palermo too but it is highly overstated there.
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I was under the impression the genetics of Messina, like Catania, are more similar to Syracuse than any of them are to Palermo. If memory serves, all the genetic samples even you've shared on this forum from Palermo show higher West Euro/Atlantid influence than does Messina. Can you link some info or PM me?
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Using Dodecad K12b here is a typical example of each. I put 2 Palermitans because they follow two patterns. I also put a Greek mainlander from the south for comparison and 2 islanders.
In my view it is clear that Ragusa and Syracuse are more like the Greek results.
Ragusa:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 32.25
2 Atlantic_Med 27.28
3 North_European 17.15
4 Southwest_Asian 11.37
5 Gedrosia 6.12
6 Northwest_African 4.11
7 Sub_Saharan 0.82
8 Siberian 0.53
9 East_Asian 0.38
Messina:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 39.23
2 Atlantic_Med 26.13
3 Southwest_Asian 12.13
4 North_European 9.76
5 Northwest_African 6.07
6 Gedrosia 5.13
7 East_African 1.37
8 East_Asian 0.16
9 Sub_Saharan 0.02
Catania:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 36.06
2 Atlantic_Med 26.32
3 Southwest_Asian 12.36
4 North_European 10.89
5 Gedrosia 8.48
6 Northwest_African 4.55
7 East_African 0.95
8 East_Asian 0.35
9 Sub_Saharan 0.02
Syracuse:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 31.42
2 Atlantic_Med 27.76
3 North_European 15.85
4 Southwest_Asian 13.08
5 Gedrosia 7.22
6 Northwest_African 3.81
7 Sub_Saharan 0.53
8 East_African 0.32
Caltanissetta:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 33.56
2 Atlantic_Med 27.1
3 Southwest_Asian 12.88
4 North_European 12.52
5 Gedrosia 6.82
6 Northwest_African 4.68
7 East_African 1.82
8 East_Asian 0.36
9 Siberian 0.2
10 Sub_Saharan 0.08
Palermo #1:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 35.47
2 Atlantic_Med 26.88
3 Southwest_Asian 13.09
4 North_European 8.36
5 Gedrosia 7.79
6 Northwest_African 6.37
7 East_African 1.07
8 Southeast_Asian 0.87
9 Sub_Saharan 0.1
Palermo #2:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 37.87
2 Atlantic_Med 27.26
3 Southwest_Asian 13.83
4 North_European 11.06
5 Gedrosia 4.17
6 Northwest_African 4.08
7 Sub_Saharan 1.34
8 East_Asian 0.38
Agrigento:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 32.8
2 Atlantic_Med 25.7
3 Southwest_Asian 13.97
4 North_European 12.29
5 Gedrosia 8.21
6 Northwest_African 5.2
7 Sub_Saharan 1.36
8 East_African 0.45
Trapani:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 33.02
2 Atlantic_Med 30.6
3 Southwest_Asian 12.29
4 North_European 11.27
5 Gedrosia 5.94
6 Northwest_African 5.14
7 South_Asian 1.14
8 East_African 0.3
9 Sub_Saharan 0.29
Peloponnese, southern Greece:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 33.51
2 Atlantic_Med 28.15
3 North_European 20.81
4 Southwest_Asian 9.07
5 Gedrosia 5.79
6 Southeast_Asian 1.16
7 South_Asian 0.8
8 Northwest_African 0.49
9 Sub_Saharan 0.22
Ikaria, Aegean islands:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 34.12
2 Atlantic_Med 25.13
3 North_European 18.28
4 Southwest_Asian 13.17
5 Gedrosia 7.41
6 Northwest_African 1.25
7 Siberian 0.64
Tilos, Aegean islands:
# Population Percent
1 Caucasus 37.31
2 Atlantic_Med 24.82
3 North_European 17.86
4 Southwest_Asian 11.21
5 Gedrosia 5.87
6 Northwest_African 1.42
7 South_Asian 1.19
8 East_Asian 0.32
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A few observations to these results.
1) Yes, overall the results from Ragusa and Syracuse are slightly more similar to the results from Greece.
2) But both the Ragusa and Syracuse results yield lower Caucusus input than any of the samples from Greece. The two results from Palermo are roughly equal with Greece. Messina has a greater Caucusus input than any of the results from Greece. What to make of this? Maybe now we are beginning to see why my paternal haplogroup from Messina is haplogroup G (Caucusus origin).
3) The Messina and Palermo results - especially Messina - show that the North European input is far below any of the Greek samples. Only about half, so quite a big difference. As you go southeast in Greece, toward Tilos, you get less and less North Euro input (as would be expected, geographically), but still Tilos is almost twice that of Messina. North European input is much higher for Ragusa and Syracuse (even though Ragusa and Syracuse have the highest North Euro input of any of the Sicilian samples), but still slightly below any of the Greek samples.
3) Messina and Palermo #1 have the highest North African contribution. North African contribution is significantly higher in these samples than in the Greek ones.
4) Other differences appear minor.
So, put simply, all the Sicilian samples, but especially Messina, are significantly LESS Northern European and also quite a fair bit MORE Northwest African than the samples from Greece. As we've discussed many times, Sicilians are plotting toward Cyprus, despite a small but noticeable Northwest African contribution.
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