Should Ireland reunify?

[Grace O'Malley]

Election over this weekend, with some changes. First time for Unionism in North. Thought it could be relevant to thread.


How Northern Ireland lost its Unionist majority, and Sinn Féin regained their mojo
Pádraig Belton
4 March 2017
4:39 PM
SPECTATOR.co.uk

They were the elections you didn’t hear about, because the UK press mainly instead covered Bruce Forsyth’s chest infection. But Northern Ireland just woke up to a world where the Unionists’ vote share is a princely 45.7%.

It was the highest turnout since 1998 (64.8%), the year of the Good Friday Agreement, that buoyed Sinn Féin to within a pip of the DUP–the latter on 28 seats and 28.1% of first-preference votes, the former on 27 and 27.9%.

So the two unionist parties, the DUP and UUP, jointly now have 38 seats in a 90-seat assembly. While Sinn Féin and the SDLP (after a surprisingly very good election day) have 39.

It doesn’t change the maths–the DUP and Sinn Féin still are the largest unionist and nationalist parties, and will still nominate (or more likely, won’t) a First Minister and deputy First Minister in the next three weeks to form a new joint executive. But it changes utterly everything about the psychology.

Arlene Foster – who presided first over the ‘Cash for Ash’ scandal, then a divisive, petty campaign plagiarised from the worst days of Ian Paisley – proved the best get-out-the-vote sergeant for nationalist voters living in West Belfast and west of the Bann generally, many of them young and casting first ballots. Sinn Féin’s photogenic, young new leader Michelle O’Neill–such a refreshingly new quantity that she was denied entrance to her own count in Ballymena for not having photo ID – has every incentive to sit back and let the unpopular Foster twist and cling to her party’s leadership as resolutely as Jeremy Corbyn is doing across the water.

Sinn Féin has said it won’t nominate a deputy First Minister so long as Foster would be First Minister, not anyway until there is a full investigation of Cash for Ash. It wouldn’t be a bad bet to expect Direct Rule to be imposed before the month is out (The ‘Vote Arlene, get Theresa’ scenario).

And if you think Foster’s gormless intransigence was great for the nationalist vote share, wait till you see what Direct Rule and Brexit will do to annoy nationalist voters right into a united Ireland.

Bear in mind Brexit, whatever its effects on the UK generally, will kneecap Northern Ireland. Belfast’s 1,200 financial services firms providing ‘nearshore’ support for London will be hit hard by the Brexodus. Farms accounting for 35% of NI’s EU exports, compared to 10% of the UK’s, will bear the brunt of tariffs after a hard Brexit. Plus Remain won here by 56% to 44%.

There’s another story here, too. It’s the rise of the parties, like Alliance and the Greens, that are neither nationalist nor unionist: fueled by the votes of detribalised, social liberal Protestants.

If you’re from Northern Ireland and under 40, you were #awakeforbailey, a Green in Belfast South, until 3.15 am and having to explain this morning why a woman called Clare kept you awake online all night.

more....
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/03...regained-mojo/

Yes a changing of the guard with Sinn Fein getting so close. The next few weeks should be interesting because if they can't work together London will have to step in and that is right into Sinn Fein's hands more than the Unionists.

[Graham]

Yes a changing of the guard with Sinn Fein getting so close. The next few weeks should be interesting because if they can't work together London will have to step in and that is right into Sinn Fein's hands more than the Unionists.

It's kind of sad how it comes to that. Sinn fein and the dup could put Ulster in danger over tribalism.

Much prefer the sdlp.

[Grace O'Malley]

It's kind of sad how it comes to that. Sinn fein and the dup could put Ulster in danger over tribalism.

Much prefer the sdlp.

I think it's a combination of things. A lot of people aren't happy with Arlene Foster because she brought in a failed renewable heating incentive scheme which is going to cost millions. There is also the issue of Brexit which most NI voted against so people aren't happy. Brexit is not good for Northern Ireland and if not handled properly is going to cause problems. Well honestly it's going to cause problems no matter what way it is handled.

Anyway Arlene is one of those intransigent Unionist types so there is going to be a reaction from people that aren't normally so polarised. Hopefully level heads will prevail but is Theresa May a strong PM? I don't think so from what I've been reading. Didn't she annoy the Scots recently as well?

[Graham]

Scots are permanently annoyed in politics to be fair, May or any other. Brexit isn't the biggest problem in Britain Imo. It's her parties demolition of the health system in England.

I don't think unionists in norn Ireland know how little that England cares about them.

[brennus dux gallorum]

Both sides do not support unification. Possibly things might change in the future but the Republic of Ireland population do not want to cause instability by joining with a significant amount of Protestant Ulsterman who see themselves as anything but Irish.

Brexit will cause a lot of problems though as the border area needs to be fluid and both sides of the border cross all the time and goods and services need to go both ways. If there are significant problems with this it might change people's minds on where their future needs would best be met.

The Republic of Ireland will not leave the EU and both Northern Ireland and the Republic have the most trade and interaction with each other. Brexit is bad for Northern Ireland as they also received significant development funds from the EU. The Irish Government want the border to remain as is as it is best for both sides. I don't think people in London give a fig about Northern Ireland and I'm sure the Northern Irish might realise this and start thinking about what is best for them.

The Republic of Ireland would not able to support Northern Ireland though as they get significant funds from the UK so unless they become more self sufficient I don't think there will be unity.

If this is what most of natives believe, I adopt this as my response

[Grace O'Malley]

Scots are permanently annoyed in politics to be fair, May or any other. Brexit isn't the biggest problem in Britain Imo. It's her parties demolition of the health system in England.

I don't think unionists in norn Ireland know how little that England cares about them.

I think they are aware of how little England cares about them. I think deep down they know that most British would be only too glad if Northern Ireland disappeared.

[Grace O'Malley]

If this is what most of natives believe, I adopt this as my response

The Republic of Ireland are very strong supporters of the EU and will not be following Britain out any time soon. I think a lot of Irish would in theory like a United Ireland but they are too aware of the problems that it would cause. There are too many Unionists that could create a lot of unrest and also the Irish acknowledge they could not afford to support Northern Ireland in its present state. It is too dependent on money from the UK and cannot pay its own way.

[Longbowman]

I think they are aware of how little England cares about them. I think deep down they know that most British would be only too glad if Northern Ireland disappeared.

?

[Grace O'Malley]

?

Read various publications like the Belfast Telegraph and even the Irish papers where they have interviewed people. Most Northern Irish, including Protestants, will admit London and British voters don't give them much thought. You will pick this up very quickly in a lot of comments by people from Northern Ireland.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/op...-35403457.html

I'm sure you are aware that both sides of the border are very concerned about Brexit and are worried about the future. They do not want a hard border which most people in London couldn't give a fig about or would not have even thought about.

[Grace O'Malley]

And this.

Yesterday's election in Northern Ireland could scarcely have been more important. Yet the British media barely considered it worth reporting.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/ada...evidence-that-

This article is one of the latest with lots of comments as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...brexit-britain

Even if people think different publications are biased it is always interesting looking at readers' comments at the end. You learn more from reading the comments than what is in the main article.

In the early seventies when the late great Margo MacDonald was elected, briefly, as the MP for Govan. She was approached in the Commons tea room by a big friendly giant figure who congratulated her, warmly, on her victory.

As he was leaving the Rev I K Paisley took her hand firmly and said

"And never forget Margo. They've got utter contempt for us all."