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This is what I have been trying to figure out for Sicily.
My conclusion is that despite there being a lot of Greek genetic influence throughout the entire southern Italy, some traces of Norman in far NW Sicily, and some elevated North African and Levantine affinity on the south and west coasts of Sicily, there is a belt from southern Calabria through Messina/Catania and into inland central Sicily that is virtually unchanged since ancient times and best represents the pre-Greek, pre-Phoenician, pre-Norman population in close to undiluted form.
I conclude this for the following reasons:
- Southernmost Calabria, northeast Sicily, and inland central Sicily all have very different histories, but they all cluster closely together, and have a lot of IBD sharing on GEDmatch (a lot of people in Messina, Caltanissetta, and southern Calabria are coming up cousins).
- There is inflated Caucasus and SW Asian affinity on GEDmatch calculators, but lower North African and SSA affinity than the rest of Sicily, supporting the notion of a population once heavily West Asian in character that became more "European".
- North European components as well as "Atlanto-Med" and West Med are lower than elsewhere in the South, implying little to no Norman influence of meaningful significance.
- Baltic influence is lower than in any Greeks.
It is also worth noting Messina has been destroyed by earthquakes, so the original population may have been destroyed and the people there today may be originally from Calabria or the inland who were resettled in those towns. This has been suggested to me by surnames and history.
The people in these regions seem to be genetically almost like Cretans with minor North African, or even close to the Dodecanese islanders that are most outlying from the mainland.
This is in contrast to Apulia and southeast Sicily which seem to shift toward mainland Greece, Campania which shifts toward central Italy, and other places in Sicily with evidence of minor North African, Norman, and Phoenician/Jewish.
Do others agree, or do they think there has been too much movement from region to region to say?
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