LePen Can Win

[wvwvw]

Says French scientist.

French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory

French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory

by CHRIS TOMLINSON
28 Apr 2017


According to French physicist Serge Galam, a victory for populist anti-mass migration presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is entirely possible due to a phenomenon known as differentiated abstention.
Professor Galam, who works as a research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), says the science proves the possibility of a Le Pen victory, SFR reports.

“Differentiated abstention” is the key, according to Galam, who defined the term as: “The gap between the vote intention declared in the polls and the actual vote.”

Galam says it is incredibly unlikely that those who voted for Le Pen in the first round of the French presidential elections last Sunday will vote for Macron, guaranteeing her a sizeable base. He also said it is unlikely all those who oppose Le Pen are guaranteed to support her opponent Emmanuel Macron who is unpopular with far left and conservative voters.

“With less than 50 per cent of voting intentions, Marine Le Pen can end up with more than 50 per cent of the votes cast,” Galam said.

Serge Galam has a history of accurate predictions over the last two years. In June of 2016, he correctly predicted the Leave campaign would win the Brexit vote. In November, he predicted Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidency, and recently predicted that popular French politician Alain Juppé would lose the Republican primary.

At the start of the week, Mr. Macron enjoyed a double-digit lead over Le Pen in the immediate aftermath of the first round election.

However, Macron was outmanoeuvred by Le Pen when she visited workers at a Whirlpool plant scheduled for closure due to outsourcing in Macron’s hometown of Amiens. When Macron arrived hours later he was greeted with boos, whistles, and cries of “Marine for President!”

Pro-traditional family group La Manif pour Tous (“Protest for Everyone”) has also come out against Macron accusing him of having “anti-family” policies and valuing money over people.

Macron, a former investment banker at Rothschilds & Cie Banque, is widely seen as an establishment candidate and is in favour of globalisation. Some, like Breitbart London’s James Delingpole, have compared Macron to former U.S. president Barack Obama with Mr. Delingpole calling him “the living embodiment of the French Deep State”.

The former Socialist Party economy minister is also pro-free trade and free-market, positions which Le Pen criticised Thursday when she joined several fishermen in the early morning. She pledged to take back the sovereignty of French waters by getting France out of the European Union through a referendum on the nation’s membership.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017...e-pen-victory/

[Sebastianus Rex]

She will be nowhere near to win, anti EU speech (wich in the case of a Frexit would mean total collapse of the EU) puts off alot of potential voters, my guess is something around 35%.

[LoLeL]

Let's wait and see.

[barkoo]

She will be nowhere near to win, anti EU speech (wich in the case of a Frexit would mean total collapse of the EU) puts off alot of potential voters, my guess is something around 35%.

She won't go to Frexit, and only use demagogy to gain voters. Anyway she could only win if abstainers from the first round which didn't vote (around 20 %) go for her while in the same time expecting a big abstention from Fillon and Melenchon voters. But she gonna lose, 10/15 pts difference with Macron.

[Sebastianus Rex]

[QUOTE]

She won't go to Frexit, and only use demagogy to gain voters.

Well, if so, it doesn't seems a great strategy, probably more to lose than to win by promising the Frexit.

[Inquizzzitor]

Unfortunately, though, she won't win. He's only saying she CAN. Yes, it's possible. But highly unlikely, still. My guess is around 39-40% of the vote goes to her.

[barkoo]

Well, if so, it doesn't seems a great strategy, probably more to lose than to win by promising the Frexit.

The only true candidate for the Frexit was Asselineau, but French ppl are sheeps. The only hope to get a politician who had a De Gaulle stature and vista is vanished.

[ariel]

If she would not win in these election she probably will win in the next election...

[Anthropos]

I think that 62/38 prediction is a little off. We'll see.

Marine Le Pen's cadence is a little too tense in my opinion. There is a time for everything, but when did we see this woman confidently at ease? That is her weakness, in my opinion.

[Sebastianus Rex]

The only true candidate for the Frexit was Asselineau, but French ppl are sheeps. The only hope to get a politician who had a De Gaulle stature and vista is vanished.

Well, it is in difficult times that great leaders arise, like De Gaulle during WWII. We're living a transitional period, things are still too grey.