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Old Prussians were the native Baltic-speaking inhabitants of East Prussia before the area was conquered by the Teutonic Order. We have a lot of evidence of Prussian language being used long after the conquest, including texts in Prussian. The language got finally extinct at the beginning of the 1700s, its last speakers died in the Sambia Peninsula.
We have documents from the early 15th century which confirm that Old Prussians were not slaughtered during the conquest, but continued to be the main ethnic group of the area even over one century after the crusade. Here is the count of native Prussian farmsteads (families) in lands administered directly by the Teutonic Knights in year 1404:
Komturei - number of Prussian serf families / number of Prussian free families:
Marienburg - 444 / 57
Christburg - 1336 / 290
Elbing - 706 / 200
Balgen - 1935 / 908
Brandenburg (Pokarben) - 1148 / 450
Osterode - 97 / 9
Koenigsberg - 1610 / 1661
Ragnit - 108 / 121
In total - 7384 (serf) / 3696 (free) = ca. 11,100
But this doesn't include Prussian families in lands owned by bishops and in private estates, these are estimated as:
In areas administered by bishops estimated ca. 5,500 Prussian farmsteads
In areas owned by private owners estimated ca. 5,500 Prussian farmsteads
So another 11,000. In total over 22,000 farmsteads inhabited by Old Prussian rural population. Prussians of the Sambia Peninsula numbered ca. 4,400 families according to that census from year 1404 (they are already included in those 22,000 above).
In Kulmer Recht villages (they were new settlements established primarily for German and Polish immigrants) there were ca. 20,000 families (ca. 1000 villages x 20). It is said that in these villages the majority were immigrants (largely Germans) and Prussians were up to 25%, which is ca. 5,000 families.
Average size of a farmstead / familiy is estimated to be 5 people.
Those estimates above refer only to rural population, to settled peasants & petty nobles with their own farmsteads. It is estimated that there were also ca. 10,000 Prussian so-called "loose people" (advenae), hirelings (hired laborers) & social margins.
Moreover in 56 towns and cities existing in Prussia as of 1404 as well as in their suburbs, there lived ca. 50,000 people (including 9,000 in Koenigsberg and 9,000 in Elbing). It is estimated that Prussians were at least 10% of this urban & sub-urban population, so at least 5,000. But in reality that was rather closer to 6,500. It seems for example, that in Koenigsberg Prussians were 28% of the population (high % in the suburbs, low % in the Old Town) and in Elbing - around 6%. So in Koenigsberg and Elbing combined, Prussians were 17% - or 3,000 out of 18,000.
The remaining ca. 50 towns had 32,000 people, including at least 10% Prussians. I assumed 3,500 Prussians.
All in all, in 1404 Prussians were probably 50% up to 60% (average 55%), of population of their original territory as of 1220. But later their proportion declined after each subsequent war / epidemic, followed by new immigration waves. So my estimate is that by year 1816 no more than 1/3 of ancestry of population of East Prussia was Old Prussian. I chose 1816 because that's approximately when population of the "original Prussia" hit one million people.
My calculations/estimates for % of Prussian ancestry in East Prussia range from low 20% to high 35%.
This graph shows the option with high % of surviving Prussian ancestry (32-33%) - it shows estimated total population size, and estimated % origins of the population over time:
I also found 84 people with East Prussian ancestry in FTDNA Haplogroup Projects.
Y-DNA frequencies of modern Lithuanians and of pre-1945 East Prussians:
N1 - 40.53% (122) / 22.62% (19)
R1a - 42.19% (127) / 45.23% (38)
I2a - 2.33% (7) / 4.76% (4)
R1b - 4.32% (13) / 15.48% (13)
I1 - 4.65% (14) / 7.14% (6)
E1b - 2.66% (8) / 1.19% (1)
J - 1.33% (4) / 1.19% (1)
G - 1.00% (3) / 1.19% (1)
I2b - 0.33% (1) / 0.00% (0)
other - 0.66% (2) / 1.19% (1)
Total sample - 301 / 84
So, compared to Lithuanians, in East Prussia there was:
- 1.8 times less of N1c
- 2.2 times less of E1b
- 1.1 times less of J
- 3.6 times more of R1b
- 2.0 times more of I2a
- 1.5 times more of I1
- 1.1 times more of R1a
And when it comes to share of M458 in R1a:
Lithuanians (sample 127):
R1a(xM458) - 100 (= 78.74% of R1a)
R1a-M458 - 27 (= 21.26% of R1a)
East Prussia (sample 33 + 5 unknown):
R1a(xM458) - 27 (= 81.82% of R1a)
R1a-M458 - 6 (= 18.18% of R1a)
Unknown R1a - 5 (in total 33+5=38)
East Prussians with typically Balto-Slavic haplogroups (+ their surnames):
The most numerous subclade of N1c in East Prussia is Z16975 / FGC13372:
https://www.yfull.com/arch-3.15/tree/N-Z16975/
This is why I think that this branch of N1c can be called the Prussian branch:
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