Russia is Doomed

[Joe McCarthy]

A few years old but a useful reality check nonetheless.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...ext=va&aid=375

Russia is Doomed: Catastrophic Post-Cold War Demographic Situation


by Said Ibrahayev

The words that are in the heading are not a fruit of the author's imagination, but it is a quite substantiated prediction based on specific figures and facts, which are a subject of discussion right in Russia today. It is a matter of catastrophic demographic situation.

Ethnic Russian population of the Russian Federation is rapidly decreasing. Entire cities and villages are ceasing to exist due to the lack of population in them. According to official figures of National Forum, «Present and Future of Russia's Population», which took place in Moscow last month, 11,000 villages and 290 cities have disappeared from the map of the Russian Federation. 13,000 villages are still on the map, but they remained with no inhabitants in them. Two villages are disappearing in Russia each day, which in one year is equal to a small province.

Deputy Minister of Health and Social Development of Russia, Vladimir Starodubtsev, said that Russia's population has decreased by 9 million over the last 10 years. Moreover, depopulation affected virtually entire Russia. Even according to understated figures, the number of the Russian population is decreasing 700 to 800 thousand each year (other reports show that the figure is 1.2 million a year). Since 1992 death rate among Russians exceeded birth rate and the difference has only been increasing ever since then.

Male death rate in Russia is one of the highest in the world. At the same time 30% of the dead are men of working years. Average life of men is 13 years less than that among women (women - 72 years, men - 58.8 years). Main reasons are alcoholism, oncology (cancer), traumas and poisonings. Deaths from abuse of alcohol in Russia skyrocketed 3.5 times over the past 5 years. Suicide rate exceeds Central European figures 2.5 times among males and 1.5 times among females. In Russia there are twice as many deaths in traffic accidents as there are in European states.

Russian youth ages 15 to 19 started dying 40 % more often. Out of today's generation of 16-year-olds, only 54 % will live until they reach their retirement age.

In 1998 for the first time the number of retirees in Russia exceeded the number of children and juveniles under 16 by 110,000. For January 1, 2004, this number has grown to 4.2 million. Right now the number of children under 14 is 2.5 times lower than the number of retirees (10.6 and 27.2 million accordingly). According to the predictions that have been made, starting the year 2006 the number of retirees will be growing even more actively and by 2016 it will comprise 25% of the entire Russian population.

According to the census of the Russian Federation, the number of ethnic Russians was 104 million out of 144.2 million of the overall population in Russia. Considering the fact that demographic figures in Russia have always been considered to be a national security issue, then proceeding from Soviet/Russian practice of demographic overstatements, you can say for sure that the number of 104 ethnic Russians is set too high and it's already been quite a while since the real number of ethnic Russians sank under the psychological mark of 100 million.

The signs of apparent worsening of demographic situation for Russians have been seen right in Moscow as well. This week Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper («Young Communist Truth») published the figures of ethnic structure of the population of the Russian capital. Senior research officer of Center for Geopolitical Research of Institute of Geography under Russian Academy of Sciences, Olga Vendina, whose research is based on the records from civil status registries in all districts of Moscow over the years of 1993 - 2003, 'ethnically tinged' neighborhoods have already been formed in Moscow. In these parts of the city Russian population is constantly decreasing, while the percentage of residents of other ethnic backgrounds is systematically increasing. Furthermore, it is in Moscow's historical center, where birthrate among non-Russian population is considerably higher than birthrate among Russians, who are being naturally ousted to the capital's outskirts.

The largest ethnic diasporas in Moscow, whose numbers are constantly growing due to sharp increase of newborns throughout the last 10 years are Azeris, Tatars, Armenians and Ukrainians. At the same time each 5th Russian woman marries a man from the Caucasus.

But that's not all. About a year ago Novye Izvestiya ('New Tidings') newspaper published some figures about ethnical structure of Russia, compiled by Jewish University of Jerusalem based on the 2002 census.

According to that sensational document, in 2002 the number of Chinese population in Russia reached almost 3.5 million, and thus the Chinese have now taken the fourth place in Russia's population, following Russians (104 million), Tatars (7.2 million), and Ukrainians (5.1 million). 15 years ago there were only 5 thousand Chinese living in Russia.

According to the predictions made by the experts, by the year 2013 every fourth person in Russia will be a Chinese.

[Äike]

Russia should ask Estonia to forcefully deport all Russians living in Estonia, to Russia. That would be my wet dream. These 350 000 Russians would definitely help the demographic situation of Russia.

[Saruman]

Jihado-globalist wet-dreams.
It's true that demographic situation was dire in 90s during the rule of drunkard Yeltsin and oligarchic clique that supported him. Unfortunately for the enemies of Russia and Europe, situation has changed in recent years.
TFR was 1.16 in 1999 and has since increased to 1.54 in 2009.
Russian economy will hit 2.5 trillion by 2015 and become 8th largest economy in the world, overtaking Canada and Italy.

According to the predictions made by the experts, by the year 2013 every fourth person in Russia will be a Chinese.

Those "experts" are case for psychiatry, as the statement above is nonsensical.

[Joe McCarthy]

Jihado-globalist wet-dreams.
It's true that demographic situation was dire in 90s during the rule of drunkard Yeltsin and oligarchic clique that supported him. Unfortunately for the enemies of Russia and Europe, situation has changed in recent years.
TFR was 1.16 in 1999 and has since increased to 1.54 in 2009.
Russian economy will hit 2.5 trillion by 2015 and become 8th largest economy in the world, overtaking Canada and Italy.




Those "experts" are case for psychiatry, as the statement above is nonsensical.

So then your contention is that all is well? Question: how many Chinese were in Russia in 1990? Question: how many Chinese are in Russia today? Moreover, what are demographics showing for Muslim increase in Russia?

[Saruman]

So then your contention is that all is well?

All is not well, but things are getting better.

Question: how many Chinese were in Russia in 1990? Question: how many Chinese are in Russia today?

Some estimates from 2004 speak of 400 000. I don't know about 1990. I would need to find more data.
That sentence implied that there was going to be something like 35 million Chinese in Russia in 2 years!!!! Please, how can you post such sources?

Moreover, what are demographics showing for Muslim increase in Russia?

Their areas have quite high growth rates, but are primarily concentrated in ethnic autonomous republics in Caucasus. Nevertheless, growth has been such that it cannot be simply attributed to non-Russians.

[InvaderNat]

On the contrary though, I've seen reports recently about Russian birthrates increasing in some provinces and even making positive growth in others (and not just the Southern Muslim ones either).
Somehow I get the feeling that this report is a little bit exaggerated, Russia is hardly 'doomed' but it definitely has it's demographic problems (then again they cant be much worse than Western Europe). Plus at least their society isn't infected with PC thinking (remember the recent protests over the murdered Russian football fan) which is more than I could say for Britain or France who's media practically worships their African football players.

[Joe McCarthy]

Basically we're reduced to a numbers game at this point - not a basic refutation of the data. 'It's horrible, but not AS horrible as the article says!'

Needless to say, bearing these tidings gives me no pleasure, but as there is a myopic sense of Russophilia among many nationalists, it's useful to provide a dose of reality.

[Joe McCarthy]

This puts the situation in perspective. Essentially the Chinese view Siberia as Mexico views the American Southwest - they think it is stolen territory to be retaken.

http://www.thevanguard.org/thevangua...k/061102.shtml

As you can see, Russia gobbled up a huge chunk of northern China, wrapping all the way around it to Korea, such that northern China remains landlocked with no access to the Sea of Japan to this day:

How did China lose all this territory, which it once called its Maritime Provinces? It was thanks to a sociopathic lunatic named Hong Xiuquang (1814-1864).

In 1843, Hong read a Bible tract by a Chinese Christian missionary, and decided that he was the younger brother of Jesus Christ, and as the New Messiah, God instructed him to rid China of its Ching Dynasty rulers.

His movement, Taiping Tianguo (Heavenly Kingdom of Peace), gained millions of followers and precipitated the deadliest civil war in human history. Between 1851 and 1864, the Taiping Rebellion cost China 50 million lives.

It was finally defeated by an English officer leading the Ching Imperial Army. His victory forever earned him the sobriquet Charles "Chinese" Gordon. Hong poisoned himself.

During the Taiping chaos, China was unable to defend her borders and Russia's Czar Alexander II (1818-1885) saw his chance to achieve his country's dream of warm-water ports on the Pacific Ocean. He assigned the task to his Governor of Eastern Siberia, Nikolay Muravyov (1809-1881), and Russian General Gennady Nevelskoy (1813-1876), who proceeded to move some 20,000 Baikal and Amur Cossacks east of the Amur-Ussuri Rivers and onto Sakhalin Island.

By 1858, Russian control of the region was a fait accompli. On May 28th at the Siberian town of Aigun, the representative of the Chinese Emperor was forced to sign the Treaty of Aigun which ceded China's Maritime Provinces to Russia. For this, Muravyov was granted the title Count Amursky ("of the Amur") by the Czar.

This history puts into perspective a news story in mid-October (10/16) by Russia's only independent television station, Ren TV, reporting from Vladivostok:

The emerging demographic situation developing here between Russia and China is simply catastrophic. The crisis is due to the creeping expansion of thousands of Chinese migrants. Chinese workers entering Siberia are replacing Russians who are not prepared to toil 12 hours a day for a pittance.

Chinese students are taught that Siberia is their land, stolen from China in the 19th century. It is suspected by many Russians here that China is subsidizing the migration of its citizens. Demographers predict that by 2025 Chinese will be the Russian Far East's predominant ethnic group. Then, it is feared, they will gain the right to vote and demand union with China.

If you're familiar with the Reconquista plan of the Mexican Aztlan movement (to reconquer the Southwest US "stolen" by America in the 19th century), this may sound like déjà vu all over again. Yet however bad you think our illegal immigrant problem is, it's pipsqueak compared to Russia's in Siberia.

Eastern Siberia, or the Russian Far East (the right half of "Siberia 1900" above) is 6.2 million square kilometers (2.4 million square miles), almost 65% the size of the entire United States including Alaska (9.6msk, 3.6msm). The total population is 6.7 million, or a little over one person per square kilometer.

In northern China or Manchuria (not China as a whole, but right across the border from Russian Siberia) it's 130 people per square kilometer.

And what is more "catastrophic" than these demographics are those of Russia's as a whole: Russia's population is falling off a cliff. In 1991, at the collapse of the Soviet Union, there were 165 million Russians. Now there are 140 million, a smaller population that Pakistan's. By 2025, it will be below 120 million.

The life expectancy of the average Russian man is now 57, due to epidemic alcoholism (millions of Russian men drink a gallon of vodka a week), AIDS, and a fourth world health/medical system. Millions of Russian women are sterile because they've had so many abortions (the preferred Russian method of birth control).

In the Russian Far East, Russian women who still can have babies are marrying Chinese immigrant men - because they make so much better husbands. They are not drunk all the time, they're not beat-you-up abusive, they work hard, and they turn their paycheck over to their wives. This is a Russian women's marital paradise.

Russia's military is as bad off as its health care system. Its draftee troops are mercilessly mistreated and have no morale. Its equipment old and rusted, its technology obsolete, it couldn't take on Poland much less China. Its nukes are useless as the Chinese have lots as well and would be the last men standing in an exchange.

Russia's GDP is smaller than Mexico's (766 billion vs. 768 billion - the US is 12.5 trillion). And it will get smaller as its main export, oil, becomes less competitive given high extraction costs.

The geopolitical bottom line is that there is no way Russia is going to be able to hold on to Siberia for much longer. Within 20 years or less, it's going to be Chinese Siberia.

It won't take a war. The demographics will become so overwhelming that Moscow will just give up and sell the place. Maybe not all at once. Maybe in bites.

First it will be Primorski Krai, that region east of the Ussuri River that wraps around Manchuria ending at Vladivostok and North Korea. Second, the region east of the Amur River to the Pacific. Third, Amur Oblast west of the Amur River. Fourth, Transbaikalia east of Lake Baikal.

After China digests all of this, we'll have to see what is bitten off next.

So when you hear someone grousing about America's problems, provide them with the perspective of what's happening to Russia. For all of this is a reminder that our tussles with Mexico and Moslems are just the preliminaries - that the Main Event of the 21st Century will be America's struggle with Communist China.

[Hussar]

Jihado-globalist wet-dreams.
It's true that demographic situation was dire in 90s during the rule of drunkard Yeltsin and oligarchic clique that supported him. Unfortunately for the enemies of Russia and Europe, situation has changed in recent years.
TFR was 1.16 in 1999 and has since increased to 1.54 in 2009.
Russian economy will hit 2.5 trillion by 2015 and become 8th largest economy in the world, overtaking Canada and Italy.
Those "experts" are case for psychiatry, as the statement above is nonsensical.

I haven't time to expose all my argumentation (i'm very busy in this moment of my life to be very active on a social forum....), but i have to quote your words.
In this moment i live in Russia (S.Peterburg), and i always studied these fields (history/dmography/sociology/politics) so i know.


These "experts" are just another boring expression of the mainstream of yankee think tank, tied to the old logic of cold war (never dead).

[Joe McCarthy]

Chinese aren't the only threat - not by a longshot:

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...lim_population