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Thread: Has Earth's Sixth Mass Extinction Already Arrived?

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    Default Has Earth's Sixth Mass Extinction Already Arrived?

    With the steep decline in populations of many animal species, from frogs and fish to tigers, some scientists have warned that Earth is on the brink of a mass extinction like those that occurred only five times before during the past 540 million years.

    Each of these 'Big Five' saw three-quarters or more of all animal species go extinct.

    In a study to be published in the March 3 issue of the journal Nature, University of California, Berkeley, paleobiologists assess where mammals and other species stand today in terms of possible extinction, compared with the past 540 million years, and they find cause for hope as well as alarm.

    "If you look only at the critically endangered mammals -- those where the risk of extinction is at least 50 percent within three of their generations -- and assume that their time will run out, and they will be extinct in 1,000 years, that puts us clearly outside any range of normal, and tells us that we are moving into the mass extinction realm," said principal author Anthony D. Barnosky, UC Berkeley professor of integrative biology, a curator in the Museum of Paleontology and a research paleontologist in the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology.

    "If currently threatened species -- those officially classed as critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable -- actually went extinct, and that rate of extinction continued, the sixth mass extinction could arrive within as little as 3 to 22 centuries," he said.

    Nevertheless, Barnosky added, it's not too late to save these critically endangered mammals and other such species and stop short of the tipping point. That would require dealing with a perfect storm of threats, including habitat fragmentation, invasive species, disease and global warming,

    "So far, only 1 to 2 percent of all species have gone extinct in the groups we can look at clearly, so by those numbers, it looks like we are not far down the road to extinction. We still have a lot of Earth's biota to save," Barnosky said. "It's very important to devote resources and legislation toward species conservation if we don't want to be the species whose activity caused a mass extinction."

    Coauthor Charles Marshall, UC Berkeley professor of integrative biology and director of the campus's Museum of Paleontology, emphasized that the small number of recorded extinctions to date does not mean we are not in a crisis.

    "Just because the magnitude is low compared to the biggest mass extinctions we've seen in a half a billion years doesn't mean to say that they aren't significant," he said. "Even though the magnitude is fairly low, present rates are higher than during most past mass extinctions."

    "The modern global mass extinction is a largely unaddressed hazard of climate change and human activities," said H. Richard Lane, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Earth Sciences, which funded the research. "Its continued progression, as this paper shows, could result in unforeseen -- and irreversible -- negative consequences to the environment and to humanity."

    The study originated in a graduate seminar Barnosky organized in 2009 to bring biologists and paleontologists together in an attempt to compare the extinction rate seen in the fossil record with today's extinction record. These are "like comparing apples and oranges," Barnosky said. For one thing, the fossil record goes back 3.5 billion years, while the historical record goes back only a few thousand years. In addition, the fossil record has many holes, making it is impossible to count every species that evolved and subsequently disappeared, which probably amounts to 99 percent of all species that have ever existed. A different set of data problems complicates counting modern extinctions.

    Dating of the fossil record also is not very precise, Marshall said.

    "If we find a mass extinction, we have great difficulty determining whether it was a bad weekend or it occurred over a decade or 10,000 years," he said. "But without the fossil record, we really have no scale to measure the significance of the impact we are having."

    To get around this limitation, Marshall said, "This paper, instead of calculating a single death rate, estimates the range of plausible rates for the mass extinctions from the fossil record and then compares these rates to where we are now."

    Barnosky's team chose mammals as a starting point because they are well studied today and are well represented in the fossil record going back some 65 million years. Biologists estimate that within the past 500 years, at least 80 mammal species have gone extinct out of a starting total of 5,570 species.

    The team's estimate for the average extinction rate for mammals is less than two extinctions every million years, far lower than the current extinction rate for mammals.

    "It looks like modern extinction rates resemble mass extinction rates, even after setting a high bar for defining 'mass extinction,'" Barnosky said.

    After looking at the list of threatened species maintained by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the team concluded that if all mammals now listed as "critically endangered," "endangered" and "threatened" go extinct, whether that takes several hundred years or 1,000 years, Earth will be in a true mass extinction.

    "Obviously there are caveats," Barnosky said. "What we know is based on observations from just a very few twigs plucked from the enormous number of branches that make up the tree of life."

    He urges similar studies of groups other than mammals in order to confirm the findings, as well as action to combat the loss of animal and plant species.

    "Our findings highlight how essential it is to save critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable species," Barnosky added. "With them, Earth's biodiversity remains in pretty good shape compared to the long-term biodiversity baseline. If most of them die, even if their disappearance is stretched out over the next 1,000 years, the sixth mass extinction will have arrived."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Treffie View Post
    With the steep decline in populations of many animal species, from frogs and fish to tigers, some scientists have warned that Earth is on the brink of a mass extinction like those that occurred only five times before during the past 540 million years.

    Each of these 'Big Five' saw three-quarters or more of all animal species go extinct.

    In a study to be published in the March 3 issue of the journal Nature, University of California, Berkeley, paleobiologists assess where mammals and other species stand today in terms of possible extinction, compared with the past 540 million years, and they find cause for hope as well as alarm.

    "If you look only at the critically endangered mammals -- those where the risk of extinction is at least 50 percent within three of their generations -- and assume that their time will run out, and they will be extinct in 1,000 years, that puts us clearly outside any range of normal, and tells us that we are moving into the mass extinction realm," said principal author Anthony D. Barnosky, UC Berkeley professor of integrative biology, a curator in the Museum of Paleontology and a research paleontologist in the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology.

    "If currently threatened species -- those officially classed as critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable -- actually went extinct, and that rate of extinction continued, the sixth mass extinction could arrive within as little as 3 to 22 centuries," he said.

    Nevertheless, Barnosky added, it's not too late to save these critically endangered mammals and other such species and stop short of the tipping point. That would require dealing with a perfect storm of threats, including habitat fragmentation, invasive species, disease and global warming,

    "So far, only 1 to 2 percent of all species have gone extinct in the groups we can look at clearly, so by those numbers, it looks like we are not far down the road to extinction. We still have a lot of Earth's biota to save," Barnosky said. "It's very important to devote resources and legislation toward species conservation if we don't want to be the species whose activity caused a mass extinction."

    Coauthor Charles Marshall, UC Berkeley professor of integrative biology and director of the campus's Museum of Paleontology, emphasized that the small number of recorded extinctions to date does not mean we are not in a crisis.

    "Just because the magnitude is low compared to the biggest mass extinctions we've seen in a half a billion years doesn't mean to say that they aren't significant," he said. "Even though the magnitude is fairly low, present rates are higher than during most past mass extinctions."

    "The modern global mass extinction is a largely unaddressed hazard of climate change and human activities," said H. Richard Lane, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Earth Sciences, which funded the research. "Its continued progression, as this paper shows, could result in unforeseen -- and irreversible -- negative consequences to the environment and to humanity."

    The study originated in a graduate seminar Barnosky organized in 2009 to bring biologists and paleontologists together in an attempt to compare the extinction rate seen in the fossil record with today's extinction record. These are "like comparing apples and oranges," Barnosky said. For one thing, the fossil record goes back 3.5 billion years, while the historical record goes back only a few thousand years. In addition, the fossil record has many holes, making it is impossible to count every species that evolved and subsequently disappeared, which probably amounts to 99 percent of all species that have ever existed. A different set of data problems complicates counting modern extinctions.

    Dating of the fossil record also is not very precise, Marshall said.

    "If we find a mass extinction, we have great difficulty determining whether it was a bad weekend or it occurred over a decade or 10,000 years," he said. "But without the fossil record, we really have no scale to measure the significance of the impact we are having."

    To get around this limitation, Marshall said, "This paper, instead of calculating a single death rate, estimates the range of plausible rates for the mass extinctions from the fossil record and then compares these rates to where we are now."

    Barnosky's team chose mammals as a starting point because they are well studied today and are well represented in the fossil record going back some 65 million years. Biologists estimate that within the past 500 years, at least 80 mammal species have gone extinct out of a starting total of 5,570 species.

    The team's estimate for the average extinction rate for mammals is less than two extinctions every million years, far lower than the current extinction rate for mammals.

    "It looks like modern extinction rates resemble mass extinction rates, even after setting a high bar for defining 'mass extinction,'" Barnosky said.

    After looking at the list of threatened species maintained by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the team concluded that if all mammals now listed as "critically endangered," "endangered" and "threatened" go extinct, whether that takes several hundred years or 1,000 years, Earth will be in a true mass extinction.

    "Obviously there are caveats," Barnosky said. "What we know is based on observations from just a very few twigs plucked from the enormous number of branches that make up the tree of life."

    He urges similar studies of groups other than mammals in order to confirm the findings, as well as action to combat the loss of animal and plant species.

    "Our findings highlight how essential it is to save critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable species," Barnosky added. "With them, Earth's biodiversity remains in pretty good shape compared to the long-term biodiversity baseline. If most of them die, even if their disappearance is stretched out over the next 1,000 years, the sixth mass extinction will have arrived."

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    I'm very skeptical of the claims that this article makes.

    First it acknowledges that mass exctinctions have taken place in the past. Then it claims that one is taking place now. Afterwards it claims that human activities are causing climate change which are causing this newest mass extinction.

    The greatest mass extinction was the Permian-Triassic mass extinction event of 250mya. It dwarfs the Cretaceous–Tertiary mass extinction event of 65mya many times over. This was when the dinosaurs largely died out.

    I paid attention in science class and palaeontology is a minor hobby of mine.

    For this article I call a politically-motivated foul. Climate change hasn't been proven to be caused by human beings except by scientists who're in the pocket of special interest groups with agendas of their own.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Winged Hussar View Post
    I'm very skeptical of the claims that this article makes.

    First it acknowledges that mass exctinctions have taken place in the past. Then it claims that one is taking place now. Afterwards it claims that human activities are causing climate change which are causing this newest mass extinction.

    The greatest mass extinction was the Permian-Triassic mass extinction event of 250mya. It dwarfs the Cretaceous–Tertiary mass extinction event of 65mya many times over. This was when the dinosaurs largely died out.

    I paid attention in science class and palaeontology is a minor hobby of mine.

    For this article I call a politically-motivated foul. Climate change hasn't been proven to be caused by human beings except by scientists who're in the pocket of special interest groups with agendas of their own.
    I must have missed the mention of climate change in the article. Can you show me please?

    Also, why do you think human actions (not climate change, but mass destruction of their habitats and killings) are not contributing to a mass extinction?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I must have missed the mention of climate change in the article. Can you show me please?

    Also, why do you think human actions (not climate change, but mass destruction of their habitats and killings) are not contributing to a mass extinction?
    Okay Loki, I will try. Or maybe I read this paragraph wrong?

    ""The modern global mass extinction is a largely unaddressed hazard of climate change and human activities," said H. Richard Lane, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Earth Sciences, which funded the research. "Its continued progression, as this paper shows, could result in unforeseen -- and irreversible -- negative consequences to the environment and to humanity.""

    As to why human beings are not contributing to mass extinction, scientists don't jump to conclusions nor embrace political causes. To be detached and objective is the measure of a true scientist. Not a paid lackey of someone like Al Gore and his global warming millions. As far as I've been able to discover the responsibility for climate change being a human-only creation is rather unlikely. Human beings are a factor, it's true, but to put the blame on us alone is foolish.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Winged Hussar View Post
    Okay Loki, I will try. Or maybe I read this paragraph wrong?

    ""The modern global mass extinction is a largely unaddressed hazard of climate change and human activities," said H. Richard Lane, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Earth Sciences, which funded the research. "Its continued progression, as this paper shows, could result in unforeseen -- and irreversible -- negative consequences to the environment and to humanity.""

    As to why human beings are not contributing to mass extinction, scientists don't jump to conclusions nor embrace political causes. To be detached and objective is the measure of a true scientist. Not a paid lackey of someone like Al Gore and his global warming millions. As far as I've been able to discover the responsibility for climate change being a human-only creation is rather unlikely. Human beings are a factor, it's true, but to put the blame on us alone is foolish.
    Ah, thanks. The reason I asked, is because climate change's emission would not alter the validity of this article. It's actually about human acitivity, not specifically climate change.

    We know that many mammals, birds, lizards and insects have already gone extinct due to human activity. And more are predicted to go extinct - increasingly more. This is no wonder, given humans' technological advancement, and greater capability to completely subjugate nature.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Ah, thanks. The reason I asked, is because climate change's emission would not alter the validity of this article. It's actually about human acitivity, not specifically climate change.

    We know that many mammals, birds, lizards and insects have already gone extinct due to human activity. And more are predicted to go extinct - increasingly more. This is no wonder, given humans' technological advancement, and greater capability to completely subjugate nature.
    I agree that human beings have a power to conquer nature. Human beings also have a strong power to help nature as well. Loki I remember sitting in my undergrad science class and listening to the professor go on about climate change. He said that there's just so much to take into account about climate change/global warming. This was in the mid-1990s when the hysteria began to build. What my professor said was that there's so many other factors to take into consideration: geothermal activity, solar activity like solar flares, even things like cosmic radiation like gamma rays and X-rays and whatnot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Winged Hussar View Post
    I agree that human beings have a power to conquer nature. Human beings also have a strong power to help nature as well. Loki I remember sitting in my undergrad science class and listening to the professor go on about climate change. He said that there's just so much to take into account about climate change/global warming. This was in the mid-1990s when the hysteria began to build. What my professor said was that there's so many other factors to take into consideration: geothermal activity, solar activity like solar flares, even things like cosmic radiation like gamma rays and X-rays and whatnot.
    Yeah, I guess people like to latch onto an easy phrase which consist of a popularized buzzword. But you'll probably find the same people there who would normally be concerned about nature as well.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Yeah, I guess people like to latch onto an easy phrase which consist of a popularized buzzword. But you'll probably find the same people there who would normally be concerned about nature as well.
    Oh, I don't disagree! Let me tell you a story: one of the most polluted lakes in the United States was Lake Onondaga in Syracuse, New York. This was because the heavy industrial factories in Syracuse piped their waste down off into the lake. It had mercury and other toxins in it and most of the fish died off. The lake was closed off for fishing for years until the state began to invest money in clean-up efforts. Recently fishing was allowed again because of the clean-up. Now it's a popular place for local bass fishers.

    The moral is: human beings can clean up the messes they make.

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