ICG Warns of Bosnia Crisis

**poiuytrewq0987** · 05-07-2011, 01:07 PM

In a report published on Friday, the group writes that state institutions in Bosnia are under attack by all sides, calling on the high representative to avoid making "hasty decisions" and on Bosnia's predominantly Serb Republika Srpska to retract a controversial referendum plan.

The Crisis Group addresses two main issues leading to the current crisis, the formation of the government in the Federation, the larger of Bosnia's two entities, and the referendum on the high representative and the state court and prosecution that Republika Srpska plans to hold.

"With such trends, it is all too easy to imagine Bosniak parties overseeing a failed state whose institutions Serbs and Croats have abandoned," the report warns.

In both instances, the think tank calls on the international community to "step back from over-involvement in local politics to calibrate goals to a realistic appraisal of diminished powers and best guarantee stability".

It asks all parties to make compromises to help de-escalate the situation and begin work towards renewing Dayton and achieving EU membership.

The Federation government, which was formed controversially in March after the two main Croat parties refused to take part in the coalition led by the Social Democratic Party, SDP, is disputed by the Croats, who have created a parallel Croat National Assembly.

The Crisis Group criticises a March decision by Bosnia's High Representative to suspend a decision by the Central Election Commission, CEC, to annul the formation of the Federation authorities.

Likewise, it warns against the High Representative's plans to annul the Republika Srpska referendum or impose sanctions on Serb officials, "not least because the attempts would likely be defied and make a referendum even more destabilising."

The ICG puts forward several recommendations for resolving the current crisis, calling on the High Representative to lift his suspension of the Central Election Commission decision, and the Federation to reform its government. Addressing the situation in Republika Srpska, the group asks the local authorities to withdraw their referendum, or, if it goes forward, to rule out any unilateral steps against the state court.

"Even though the situation is deeply troubling, the international community should avoid hasty decisions that could deepen the crisis and push the parties to maximalist positions. This is not the time to try to micro-manage the crisis with technical measures or sanctions," the group says.

Calling for a "strategical rethink of international policy", the ICG calls on the international community to "convene a high-level conference to set its goals in Bosnia, reconfirm its commitment to the Dayton Peace Agreement, remove the High Representative from local politics, develop plans to relocate his office outside Bosnia and give the EU the capacities to become a leading actor."

The report, meanwhile, has been the subject of some criticism, both from Bosnia's Social Democratic Party and from some observers.

The sooner mini-me Yugoslavia breaks apart the better.