2
An interesting article of opinion, and I guess controversial, about the fate of the world.
Did you know that Xi was hunted and his sister commited suicide? or that Putin was a taxi driver?
China will lose almost half of its population by the end of the century and Russia will be majority Muslim by 2063. The imperial fantasies of Putin and Xi, as well as those of Trump, are on their way to evaporating under the sun of history.Psychological defeats are the most serious of all. Nations drag their consequences for many years, generations even.
China was defeated in its own country against the British and French empires, Spain in Cuba, the United States in Vietnam, France in Algeria, the USSR in the Cold War. Defeats write history as much or more than victories and, of course, condition the present.
China, Russia and the United States want to win not only to dominate the world, but to forget the humiliations of the past. The same thing happens to Xi, Putin and Trump. It is something personal, typical of authoritarian leaders. They confuse their particular interest with the interest of the State.History teaches us that no one, no leader, earns anything forever. Victories are ephemeral compared to historical time. Even those that last more than a century fade with the next twist of fate.
When the road goes awry, open societies survive more easily than closed ones. Where tyranny, violence and subjugation flourished, the defeats have been much deeper and more lasting.
When they fall, the autocrats drag down their people and states. This has been the case throughout history. It is likely, therefore, that Xi will drag China, Putin to Russia and Trump to the United States if he regains the presidency next year.All three are united by the personal experience of psychological defeat, of humiliation, of not having been accepted in their respective societies.
Xi went through jail and ruin, his father's degradation and his sister's suicide.
Putin's mother had him single and he never met his father. Mother and son lived with extreme modesty until he joined the KGB. When the Berlin Wall fell and he lost his job in Soviet counterespionage, he drove a taxi and returned to a small flat in St. Petersburg.
Trump grew up in Queens, New York's most mafia district, far from the elites of upper Manhattan who, despite his fortune, never considered him one of their own.
Having won for several years, now the three of them have started to lose. They are on the verge of their last redemption. If Trump doesn't return to the White House, he'll be over forever, but America will pull through.Putin and Xi have it harder. They are not Mao or Stalin. They cannot be and this is good for the world. Technology allows them to subjugate the masses, but not to mobilize them. Progress has reinforced individualism even in the most authoritarian regimes. The Chinese and Russians put up with the leader, but they don't follow him. They are not messianic. We see no patriotic fervor on the streets of Russia and China.
Xi and Putin dream of leading changes that haven't been seen in a hundred years, but they can't change their own people. Xi has a project of national rejuvenation that is almost impossible to fulfill. Demographic projections indicate that by the end of the century China will have lost almost half of its population.
Russia, already suffering from demographic decline, will also see Muslims in the majority in 2063.The size of the population and the territory have been decisive in consolidating geostrategic hegemonies. Xi, Putin and Trump know this. They know what they are up against: the end of a China at the center of the world, as well as the end of a white, Christian Russia and America.
.....
Europe can compensate for intellectual decline by fostering the humanities and demographic decline by accepting immigrants who will not want to live in China or Russia for nothing in the world. When circumstances require it and institutional and political corsets allow it, open societies are creative, flexible and supportive. Much more than the closed ones.https://www.lavanguardia.com/interna...n-derrota.htmlIf democratic leaders in Europe and the United States take all this into account, they will be able to negotiate with China and Russia from an advantageous position. Notice how Xi listens to European leaders when they ask him to convince Putin to withdraw from Ukraine.
It is true that these European leaders are small and improvised. Their changes of course are discouraging, but in their doubts and modesties also lies the solidity of our progress. They are not strong, but neither do they go down in an spiral like Xi, Putin and Trump do. They don't win much, but they don't lose either. We should not forget that time is always in favor of modest and resilient turtles.
Bookmarks