Ukraine started negotiations with Romania for a bilateral security agreement in Davos

[Cybele]

OK maybe "annex" is not the best word,
but maybe a pro-Western Moldovan government could "unite" with Romania regardless of what the people want?
After a long enough time in power, maybe a pro-Western government could strongly promote reunification,
and manufacture a consensus with a media campaign and mass movement supported by Western money and NGOs.
Romanians support reunification more than Moldovans, maybe Romanian activists can "convince" Moldovans?

To my understanding their pro-Western administration doesn’t care about the unification with Romania. It’s not a priority. More like an independent EU integration and accession of EU funds, to which their population is more open.
Maybe they’ll (both the population and government) become more open to unification in case they will feel very threatened, that it’s possible.

I think that if the Russians take more Ukrainian territory and advance toward Transnistria,
then there will be urgency in Moldova.
What if the pro-Western government asks for protection from Romania?

According to official declarations, Romania will provide help, but it will avoid entering with armed forces into Moldova.
Iohannis stated that we will not get military involved (with troops) if a conflict arises in Moldova, because they are not a NATO member. Romania will train their military personnel (we already have, he said). And I’m expecting we will send military equipment and ammunition to Moldova, help with logistics. Surely volunteer battalions will form and of course we will take refugees and offer humanitarian help.

What if Romanian forces enter Moldova?
What if there is a referendum to unite with Romania while there are Romanian forces in Moldova?
Something like this happened in Crimea.

What was the exact situation with Crimea, though? The Crimean population was pro-Russian, before Russian soldiers entered it in 2014, right? But in Moldova they are not so pro-unionist.
I mean a sense of urgency for reunification might arise on both sides, if the war approaches Moldova's borders. But I doubt we will enter directly in Moldova by force.

(Also if Ukraine begins falling apart and is no longer financially supported by the West, and Russia takes more territory,
then Poland, Romania, and Hungary may want to take pieces of Ukraine as well, and form their own zones of occupation.
Distant possibility; part of Ukraine was once part of Romania. Another reason to keep an independent relationship with Russia)

In such an eventuality, I've heard Poland does not want to take back any terrirory from Ukraine ( this could confirmed or denied by people who know better the situation ). Can't speak for Hungary. As for Romania, we are helping them now with everything we can: from weapons, electric energy, taking refugees etc. Our president agreed that Romania will help Ukraine financially too. We signed in 1997 a treaty that we don't have territorial pretentions from them.
Only in future if other parties will come into power, maybe the support for them will finish and there are higher chances of canceling the Neptun treaty.

[dviz]

you mention blood, but when you plot with G25 Moldovans both sides of Prut vs Romanians they almost don't overlap.

Romania is a large country by European standards. This why while there is overlap between provinces, this overlap is not complete. In K13 coordinates average Romanians in various provinces span distances larger than 12, which iirc is larger than distances between Poles and Western Russians.

the status quo is the best for Moldova, otherwise it can become nasty if all these groups start to fight each other. and they're a post-Soviet society, they don't shy away of fighting if it comes their way.

I have watched the political life in Moldova for decades now. Status quo doesn't work for them. Rep. of Moldova is in a grey area between Europe and Russia, that does not allow for investment (mostly due to insecurity, and less because of corruption - it's the same situation as in Ukraine). They will forever lag behind, and the population will slowly peter out.

Integration in the EU is a pipe dream, the union is much more realistic. Moldova has negotiated only 1 chapter of the EU's Community acquis out of 35, but that chapter is still not closed. At this rate joining the EU is never gonna happen. And the needs are pressing. For the moment, Romania absorbs some of the Moldovan economic output (a third of the Moldovan exports go to Romania), and provides gas and electrical energy when relations with Transnistria breakdown, but this Romanian help cannot be taken for granted. At some point Moldovans will have to make a decision - do they want to integrate with Romania or stay out.

Perhaps more surprisingly, the pro-European and pro-Romanian currents in Moldova are not so tied to the language spoken. A lot of Moldovan Russian speakers (be them ethnic Romanian /Moldovan, Ukrainian or Russian) are pro-European or pro-union, particularly in Chisinau, mostly because Chisinau has the best educated population in Moldova, a population that is better informed and has seen Romania and Europe, and is less inclined to believe the dumbest kind of Russian propaganda.

[Scarface F]

what is your opinion about Russia, Cybele? Got me curious.

[Scarface F]

Russia is not the white knight that's gonna save us from the globohomo. The Russian elite is one of the most depraved groups of individuals,

Agreed.

[Scarface F]

the disproportion makes it for a huge GDP per capita for Bucharest, one of the richest regions in the EU, funnily in the poorest country of the EU - this statistic alone speaks tons.

Romania isn't poorest country in the EU at all. I noticed big wealth of Bucharest on maps though, yeah. Centralisation is problem of many countries.

[ioas12]

[QUOTE=dviz;7891355]Romania is a large country by European standards. This why while there is overlap between provinces, this overlap is not complete. In K13 coordinates average Romanians in various provinces span distances larger than 12, which iirc is larger than distances between Poles and Western Russians.
Which counties are that ? I know they can be high but I never heard 12 before

[CosmoLady]

Russia is not the white knight that's gonna save us from the globohomo. The Russian elite is one of the most depraved groups of individuals,

Agreed.

I never said otherwise,
but Russia lacks anywhere near the budget, self-destructive recklessness, and ideological stupidity of the Globohomo American Empire.

So in my opinion, Russia is much less dangerous for humanity, UNLESS a nuclear war starts, then both sides are equally dangerous.

Encouraging conflict with Russia only makes nuclear war more likely.

Also, it was a Russian officer, Stanislav Petrov, who prevented nuclear war in 1983 during NATO's reckless Able Archer exercise,
and it was a Russian officer, Vasily Arkhipov, who prevented nuclear war in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
So the USSR has already saved humanity twice. (I am NOT a communist though and I am glad that the USSR was defeated.)
You should be thanking these Russian heroes for being alive today;

They were conscientious and reasonable while the US/NATO was (still is) reckless.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov

The domestic and foreign policy of Globohomo is visibly depraved and ANTI-HUMAN.
The rumoured (psyop?) private habits of Russian leaders are utterly irrelevant.

What I see from travelling the world (including the US) is that Russia, China, and non-Western countries always build great things,
while the US does not build any great things,
B]the US only undermines and destroys other countries[/B]: physically, politically, economically/financially, culturally, socially.

For example, look around you. Thanks to Russia, a pipeline supplies gas to Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, and Austria.
Russian uranium, loans, and investment support the maintenance and expansion of nuclear power in Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia.
The US regime/woke financial system opposes all/most loans and investment for fossil fuels and nuclear power.

and Putin is just a dull Soviet pencil pusher who throws temper tantrums every time he's not allowed at the adults table.

You see the obvious contradiction, right? He cannot throw temper tantrums if he is a DULL pencil pusher.

Everything I have read about Putin suggests that he is personally very cautious, moderate, conservative, sometimes pedantic and petty like a schoolmaster. The invasion of Ukraine was a reluctant last resort due to extreme circumstances.
Of course he has a dark side like anyone else, and I never said that he was a saint, very few people are.
Most importantly, Putin is clearly very intelligent, with far above the intellectual capacity of any Western leader,
this is obvious, this reflects poorly on the West.

Putin was indeed a bureaucrat with a seemingly unremarkable career under communism,
who was favoured for promotion by powerful forces in Russia post-1991, and has since consolidated his power and has rebuilt Russia.
So whether you or I like him or not is irrelevant. I respect his intelligence and accomplishments.

Btw, the realism of Mearsheimer and co is only a redressing of imperialism that brought us two world wars. So no, thank you.
If you're curious why realism is unacceptable in Eastern Europe watch critique of realism:

I was referring to REALISM as a general principle. What is the opposite of realism? Idealism? Fantasy?

Mearsheimer, a great intellect, is a continuation of the realism of George Kennan, another great intellect and experienced diplomat.

Kennan also strongly opposed the expansion of NATO and provocation of Russia, as did Pat Buchanan.

The main supporters of NATO expansion are the US foreign policy establishment and the weapons industry.

The US foreign policy establishment is openly imperialist and mostly Jewish:
Kagan, Nuland, Abrams, Perle, Kristol, Wurmser, Wolfowitz, Sullivan, etc

The question is,
why does a proud nation like Romania insist on being the lapdog of this clique of self-confessed US imperialists?

The US repeatedly abandons, subverts, and betrays its allies, too many examples to name throughout history.
"It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal." example: Ukraine, Georgia, Egypt
-Henry Kissinger

The US has also lost its recent conflicts: Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and soon Ukraine.
While Russia has won its recent conflicts: Chechnya, Syria, the Sahel (Africa), and soon Ukraine.
Asia, India, and the Middle East are aligning with Russia, the West is becoming isolated.

Logically, it makes sense for Romania to keep its options open with an INDEPENDENT foreign policy.

[dviz]

Why would Russia try to invade Romania without giving them a reason?

Do you think empires need reasons (from the invaded parties) when they invade other countries? For what reason has Russia occupied half of Moldova in 1812, when Moldova was not part of the conflict in the Russo-Turkish war of 1806–1812?

Romania should not prop Ukraine with weapons (humanitarian aid is ok). By giving weapons we make the conflict last longer, while more Ukrainians will die. A diplomatic solution which would’ve put an end the carnage was stopped, as the Great Britain interfered.

I see, you have a humanitarian view. You care about Ukrainians dying. So, in your view, if Ukrainians give up, they stop dying. But do you care about Russians dying? Crimean cities under Russian occupation and Russian cities in Russia proper are bombarded on weekly basis. Hundreds of thousands of Russians (if not millions by now) are internally displaced. Do you care about them? Why don't take your humanitarian plea to Putin? Why doesn't he give up? Doesn't he care about his own people? He put them through this suffering. Russians from Belgorod or Voronezh didn't ask for this war. Why doesn't he care for them?

Some said from the beginning, Ukraine would have to concede some land. Now Putin won’t give up the territorial gains, Russia made in Ukraine.

Ukraine has been invaded by Russia every decade now, and every time it happened Ukraine had to give up some territory. Nevermind the thousands of Ukrainians killed.

Imagine this scenario: a mobster comes into your house every year and kills a member of your family and then asks for money. Are you telling me that your sole response is to pay him every time?

Romania had nothing to do with Russia & Ukraine affairs, to begin with. But by sending weapons we get ourselves involved. The budget for the army is based on taxpayer’s money too, so I see it as reasonable to consult the population.

That's actually not reasonable at all. Military budgets and spending are not up for society-wide debate. The start of a military conflict is also not subject to referendums, otherwise democracies would be crushed by dictatorships every time. No individual wants to go to war. No family wants to lose close relatives and their possessions. Only dictators enjoy wars from their bunkers.

Russians claim there was genocide against ethnic Russian civilians in Donbas region, before the war in 2022.

"Russians claim". Russians also claimed that private individuals took over Crimea (and not the Russian army), that private individuals were fighting in Donbas (and not the Russian army), that Russia would not invade Ukraine, etc, etc. Who cares at this point about what Russians are claiming.

I think what Russians saw more of a “provocation” the NATO continuous expansion and Ukraine wanting to join it, because they feel surrounded and cornered, and they won’t allow that.

This is a typical Russian talking point.
In reality, NATO expansion happened because Russia's neighbors begged to join NATO after being abused by Russia for centuries.

I think Russia is right to fear NATO expansion, but so are Russia's neighbors correct in seeking protection from Russia, after being attacked/mistreated for generations. I don't think the fears of 150 million Russians have to be taken more seriously than the protection needs of the other 150 million Eastern Europeans. At this point, Eastern Europeans have broke up with Russia. I hope cooler heads will prevail and some form of agreement for lasting peace will be found out, but this divorce with Russia is going to last a long time.

Sovereignty it’s more of a theoretic concept now, because Ukraine gave it away to big corporations and foreign powers, who produce their grains, influence their government, etc.

Every time Putin talks about sovereignty I think of Xi Jinping smiling.

Would we be asked for territory now? What Romanian territories does Russia want, these days though and why? I’m playing “devil’s advocate” here.

You obviously do not speak Russian, and do not follow Russian commentators.
Let me tell you that many Russians think that Moldova is part of historic Russia which they can claim at any time. Are you ok with Russia occupying Rep. of Moldova after Ukraine? What about Moldova region of Romania? What about Dobrogea? They can say that Dobrogea is Tatar land that they can claim as a successor state. You fine with that?

Romania would have been on the chopping block right now, if we weren't in NATO.

[Cybele]

what is your opinion about Russia, Cybele? Got me curious.

It’s difficult to have a precise opinion about such a huge and varied country, with complex history and with little info from inside of it. I’m continuing to form my opinion as I get more info (both positive and negative). There is the language barrier as well, because of which I cannot have a more direct and better understanding of their society and mentality.
Sure, one can find on the internet, all sorts of vlogs made by common people who either visit or stay there. They offer a glimpse into their lives and impressions of the country. But this only covers a small part of the complexity of life there.
I’ve seen a video made by Romanian vlogger Cosmin Avram recently, who traveled to Russia (which is not common destination for Romanians in general). And he said he had worse impression of the place before, but after going personally there, he changed it. He's quite objective from what I've noticed, with what he says. So, I get the impression in Romania, Russia and Russian population are painted in more negative ways (at least in certain aspects).
But travelling in Moscow, Sankt Petersburg and so on, like he did, is not the same as living in there for a number of years and it certainly shows just a small area of the immense territory which Russia has.

Also, judging by some of his actions I don’t consider Putin some perfect leader. Russia follows same steps in digitalization as Europe, they move slowly towards digital ID, etc.

[Cybele]

Do you think empires need reasons (from the invaded parties) when they invade other countries?

Do you believe Russia has revived its tsarist imperialistic past?
I mean, that’s a possibility. But Putin does not seem to want to annex West of Ukraine and expand further. It may be, that Russia will take the south of Ukraine, which they perceive as strategic for their security.

For what reason has Russia occupied half of Moldova in 1812, when Moldova was not part of the conflict in the Russo-Turkish war of 1806–1812?

In short both Ottomans and Russians (and not only them) used these regions as “currency exchange”, between themselves. The Ottomans were told by the French (since Napoleon was about to attack Russia), to expect a bit more with signing the peace negotiations. The French had their interests too in the region, of course. But they didn’t wait and so, half of Moldova (Bessarabia) was given to the Russians. Maybe the history would’ve been different for Moldova, if the Ottomans had waited.

Some historians said that the Ottoman Empire, did not had the right to give up land from Principality of Moldova to tsarist Russia either. Principality of Moldova was vassal of the Ottoman empire, but Moldova did not lose its status as a sovereign state, maintaining its national statehood, political, economic, legal systems, administrative, fiscal and religion. Others, said that the Principality was not so autonomous actually. In any case, that was done by both empires, more or less legally.
Catherine II, empress of Russia, was German and she planned with Joseph II the sharing the Balkans including Moldova, Wallachia, Transylvania, etc. between themselves.
Indeed, the empires and these nobiliary families who in some cases were related and had ties, cared for their interests to the detriment of whatever foreign populations they were ruling. Empires seek to drain the local resources and have obedient subjects. And when they fall it’s bad too, to a degree, because they leave whatever regions they had, in chaos and for other empires to seek to occupy.

I see, you have a humanitarian view. You care about Ukrainians dying. So, in your view, if Ukrainians give up, they stop dying. But do you care about Russians dying? Crimean cities under Russian occupation and Russian cities in Russia proper are bombarded on weekly basis. Hundreds of thousands of Russians (if not millions by now) are internally displaced. Do you care about them? Why don't take your humanitarian plea to Putin? Why doesn't he give up? Doesn't he care about his own people? He put them through this suffering. Russians from Belgorod or Voronezh didn't ask for this war. Why doesn't he care for them?

You’ve kinda twisted my idea in some way. My point was that Ukrainians are dying in bigger numbers than the Russians, they will not be able to go on forever, even women and disabled are sent to the front. Ukrainians are under the risk of losing southern territory of their country too, with the Black sea opening, if the fight goes on. These aspects are more critical for the Ukrainians and their country than for Russians, it inflicts bigger damage to them. So, shouldn’t Ukrainians stop first?

Ukraine has been invaded by Russia every decade now, and every time it happened Ukraine had to give up some territory. Nevermind the thousands of Ukrainians killed.

Wasn’t Ukraine also given territories by Russia? Excuse me, but Khrushchev if I'm not mistaken, gave Bukovina to Ukraine and now we sit and cry that Russia takes their territories.

That's actually not reasonable at all. Military budgets and spending are not up for society-wide debate. The start of a military conflict is also not subject to referendums, otherwise democracies would be crushed by dictatorships every time. No individual wants to go to war. No family wants to lose close relatives and their possessions. Only dictators enjoy wars from their bunkers.

From a political-philosophical perspective, referendums are an expression of direct democracy. If a referendum is held that’s direct expression of population. If you hold a referendum and ask population if they want to send weapons to foreign country and don’t twist the truth, wouldn’t that be democratic? And if you, as administration, are not transparent, is that democratic?
Of course, if you would ask the people they wouldn’t want a war, because it’s them who will be sent to the front. Administrations fear losing power the most, because they have all the money, all the influence. They would sacrifice millions of lives, in order not to fall.
Military involvement in conflicts should be up for national debate imo. Explain the situation and let the people chose in matters that affect their security. Being 100% transparent in general, can also protect from accusation of corruption, etc. You expect us to believe all these politicians take these decisions for our own sake. They fly in private jets, payed form taxpayer money, buy expensive houses but oh… they care so much for Romania and Ukraine…
As for military spending, probably lots of money are used to buy expensive equipment, to feed further the American military–industrial complex.

"Russians claim". Russians also claimed that private individuals took over Crimea (and not the Russian army), that private individuals were fighting in Donbas (and not the Russian army), that Russia would not invade Ukraine, etc, etc. Who cares at this point about what Russians are claiming.

I don't expect 100% of they say is true, so I agree. And yes, Russia dismissed the invasion claims publicly. However, Stoltenberg said Putin sent a draft treaty in autumn 2021 to NATO, as pre-condition not to invade Ukraine. So maybe NATO thought about and expected the war, but ignored Putin's request instead of negotiate about it.
“President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement,” Stoltenberg told a joint committee meeting of the European Parliament on September 7. “That was what he sent us. And [that] was a pre-condition for not invade [sic] Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that.”
“He went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite,” Stoltenberg reiterated, referring to the accession of Sweden and Finland into the alliance in response to Putin’s invasion. Their entry, he later insisted, “demonstrates that when President Putin invaded a European country to prevent more NATO, he's getting the exact opposite.”

In reality, NATO expansion happened because Russia's neighbors begged to join NATO after being abused by Russia for centuries.

Maybe they should seek to make own alliance.

You obviously do not speak Russian, and do not follow Russian commentators.
Let me tell you that many Russians think that Moldova is part of historic Russia which they can claim at any time. Are you ok with Russia occupying Rep. of Moldova after Ukraine?

No, I’m not ok with Russia occupying RM.
I’m also not ok with Romania occupying them (hypothetical scenario) or anyone else, for that matter. Moldovans from Republic, should stay independent if they want so. But if they choose (they pretty much did, as they stood separated for decades now) this path, is normal to think of ways of dealing with all good and bad things, that come with being a separate state.
R. of Moldova is a neutral country though, how realistically will they be invaded? Russia would get even more international opprobrium if they attacked or tried to annex them.

What about Moldova region of Romania? What about Dobrogea? They can say that Dobrogea is Tatar land that they can claim as a successor state. You fine with that?

No.
In a hypothetical scenario the Romanians in Moldova (our side) and Dobruja would oppose any Russification attempts. Compared to centuries ago, our identity has crystallized more. And it depends how much power they can project and for how much time, they'd be able to occupy the territories. Even after WW2, and Soviet occupation, Romania kinda had independent policy from Soviet Union and managed to get Soviet troops, out of the country after 1958.

Another option would've been developing nuclear weapons of our own. Maybe we should revive Danube Program.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danube_Program
What do you mean by Dobruja is Tatar land? Would they make it Tatarstan 2.0? That’s kinda wild.

Romania would have been on the chopping block right now, if we weren't in NATO.

Romanian politicians put all their faith in NATO. NATO has like 5.000 foreign soldiers (half of them being American) stationed in Romania, a country next to an ongoing war. That’s not much. In comparison Germany hosts over 35.000 American troops, while it’s not bordering Ukraine. Japan hosts over 50.000 American troops even though, at the moment the relationship with China are not as tense, as with Russia. Probably, for the Americans the Pacific region is of higher interest and concern, than the NATO’s Eastern Flank.
I wouldn’t wanna see if the Alliance will actually for us work or not. 5.000 soldiers so far are our security guarantees.