W. R.
12-03-2009, 09:47 AM
Region: Russian rhetoric warms to Ukraine
Kremlin softens tough talk in lead-up to Jan. 17 presidential elections
Posted: October 21, 2009
http://www.praguepost.com/pictures/1-20091021-2592-1536-pic.jpg
By Alena Pastukhova
For the Kyiv Post
The Kremlin has stoked anti-Ukrainian resentment in recent years, but its propaganda machine may be softening ahead of Ukraine's Jan. 17 presidential election.
And, while official Russia is warming to their Slavic brothers ever so slightly, much of the population remains deeply split over whether to regard Ukraine positively.
A poll from the Moscow-based Levada Center Sept. 18-21 showed 46 percent of Russians have a "good or very good" attitude toward Ukraine, while almost as many (44 percent) see Ukrainians in a "bad or very bad" light. Another 10 percent remain undecided.
Ukrainians regard their northern neighbors more warmly. A parallel study by Kyiv's International Institute of Sociology showed between 88 percent and 93 percent of Ukrainians consistently hold a positive view of Russia, despite repeated spats between leaders of the two nations.
Experts say the results are not surprising.
"There is no state anti-Russia propaganda in Ukraine," said Oleksandr Paliy, an expert at the Kyiv-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think tank within the Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine.
In contrast, Russians are markedly more hostile toward Ukraine, in no small part because of a state-orchestrated propaganda campaign, said Aleksey Grazhdankin, deputy director of Moscow's Levada Center.
"The attitude toward Ukraine is the result of state propaganda," Grazhdankin said. "Russia's information environment is a mono-polar world with only one point of view. The standard is established by the state power and is eventually followed by the majority."
Grazhdankin expects further improvement in Russian attitudes toward Ukraine, noting that Kremlin leaders appear to be taking a cautious attitude until the Jan. 17 presidential election. Some also detect a tilt toward Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as the official campaign kicked off Oct. 19.
But tensions can flare at any time between the neighbors - over any number of issues.
Many are watching to see if Moscow will interfere in the presidential vote by overtly backing a candidate, as it did in 2004, when then-Russian President Vladimir Putin's support for Viktor Yanukovych backfired badly.
Grazhdankin doesn't think Russian leaders will make the same mistake in 2010. Rather, he said, the Kremlin would send warning signals to all candidates, making clear what Russia expects from them.
"It is unfavorable for Russia to worsen relations with the country before a new president is elected," Grazhdankin said.
But many say the bilateral relationship is in need of repair.
The percentage of Russians with a good attitude toward Ukrainians has remained below 55 percent since March 2008. By comparison, at least 80 percent of Russians shared a "good or very good" attitude to Belarus during the same period.
Levada Center's polls consistently show that Russians' attitude toward Ukraine worsens each time top Russian officials make radical statements or take action against Ukraine.
Anti-Ukrainian sentiment was strong among Russians after the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. Russian media repeatedly accused Ukraine of supplying arms to the Caucasus country. Russian media also made repeated and unsubstantiated claims that Ukrainian conscripts fought alongside Georgian soldiers. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko added fuel to the fire by siding openly with Georgian counterpart, Mikheil Saakashvili.
In a poll conducted soon after, only 37.3 percent of Russians viewed Ukrainians in a good light, while 52.6 percent said their attitude was "bad."
Gas conflict and opinion
Russian's attitudes toward the United States, which also sided with Georgia, experienced an all-time low just after the Russian-Georgian war. In September 2008, only 23 percent said their attitude toward the United States was "positive or very positive." Previously, attitudes toward the United States dipped sharply in the spring of 1999, when NATO forces conducted a military operation in the former-Yugoslavia and, in the spring of 2003, when the United States launched a military attack on Iraq. Both moves were widely reported by the Russian press in a negative manner and condemned by Kremlin officials.
Many think Russian propaganda has tempered its virulent anti-Americanism, at least for the moment, until the Kremlin leadership decides whether U.S. President Barack Obama will bring an improvement in relations over the hostility that existed during the administration of George W. Bush.
For Ukraine, conflict over natural gas affects Russian opinion. The previous dip in attitude (with 29 percent viewing Ukraine positively and 62 percent negatively) took place in January during Russia's three-week gas cutoff.
"Ukraine was described by the majority of Russian media as a Russian gas robber, and it seriously spoiled Russians' attitude," Grazhdankin said.
Pro-NATO rhetoric, attempts to have the 1932-33 Communist-induced famine recognized as genocide against the Ukrainian nation, and attempts to honor the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) that fought against the Communists and Nazis during and after World War II have hurt Russians' view of Ukraine, experts said.
So why do Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin bash Ukraine so hard?
Viktor Chumak, director of political programs at the Kyiv-based International Center for Policy Studies, said, "Ukraine is a country where economic and political competitiveness is cultivated," and such a neighbor is dangerous for Russia's leadership because it offers an alternative to their "soft authoritarian regime."
"The image of Ukraine as an enemy," deep in crisis and worse off than Russia is pushed in the Russian media to convince citizens there is "no better alternative to their own regime," Chumak added.
http://www.praguepost.com/print/2592-region-russian-rhetoric-warms-to-ukraine.html
Kremlin softens tough talk in lead-up to Jan. 17 presidential elections
Posted: October 21, 2009
http://www.praguepost.com/pictures/1-20091021-2592-1536-pic.jpg
By Alena Pastukhova
For the Kyiv Post
The Kremlin has stoked anti-Ukrainian resentment in recent years, but its propaganda machine may be softening ahead of Ukraine's Jan. 17 presidential election.
And, while official Russia is warming to their Slavic brothers ever so slightly, much of the population remains deeply split over whether to regard Ukraine positively.
A poll from the Moscow-based Levada Center Sept. 18-21 showed 46 percent of Russians have a "good or very good" attitude toward Ukraine, while almost as many (44 percent) see Ukrainians in a "bad or very bad" light. Another 10 percent remain undecided.
Ukrainians regard their northern neighbors more warmly. A parallel study by Kyiv's International Institute of Sociology showed between 88 percent and 93 percent of Ukrainians consistently hold a positive view of Russia, despite repeated spats between leaders of the two nations.
Experts say the results are not surprising.
"There is no state anti-Russia propaganda in Ukraine," said Oleksandr Paliy, an expert at the Kyiv-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think tank within the Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine.
In contrast, Russians are markedly more hostile toward Ukraine, in no small part because of a state-orchestrated propaganda campaign, said Aleksey Grazhdankin, deputy director of Moscow's Levada Center.
"The attitude toward Ukraine is the result of state propaganda," Grazhdankin said. "Russia's information environment is a mono-polar world with only one point of view. The standard is established by the state power and is eventually followed by the majority."
Grazhdankin expects further improvement in Russian attitudes toward Ukraine, noting that Kremlin leaders appear to be taking a cautious attitude until the Jan. 17 presidential election. Some also detect a tilt toward Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as the official campaign kicked off Oct. 19.
But tensions can flare at any time between the neighbors - over any number of issues.
Many are watching to see if Moscow will interfere in the presidential vote by overtly backing a candidate, as it did in 2004, when then-Russian President Vladimir Putin's support for Viktor Yanukovych backfired badly.
Grazhdankin doesn't think Russian leaders will make the same mistake in 2010. Rather, he said, the Kremlin would send warning signals to all candidates, making clear what Russia expects from them.
"It is unfavorable for Russia to worsen relations with the country before a new president is elected," Grazhdankin said.
But many say the bilateral relationship is in need of repair.
The percentage of Russians with a good attitude toward Ukrainians has remained below 55 percent since March 2008. By comparison, at least 80 percent of Russians shared a "good or very good" attitude to Belarus during the same period.
Levada Center's polls consistently show that Russians' attitude toward Ukraine worsens each time top Russian officials make radical statements or take action against Ukraine.
Anti-Ukrainian sentiment was strong among Russians after the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. Russian media repeatedly accused Ukraine of supplying arms to the Caucasus country. Russian media also made repeated and unsubstantiated claims that Ukrainian conscripts fought alongside Georgian soldiers. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko added fuel to the fire by siding openly with Georgian counterpart, Mikheil Saakashvili.
In a poll conducted soon after, only 37.3 percent of Russians viewed Ukrainians in a good light, while 52.6 percent said their attitude was "bad."
Gas conflict and opinion
Russian's attitudes toward the United States, which also sided with Georgia, experienced an all-time low just after the Russian-Georgian war. In September 2008, only 23 percent said their attitude toward the United States was "positive or very positive." Previously, attitudes toward the United States dipped sharply in the spring of 1999, when NATO forces conducted a military operation in the former-Yugoslavia and, in the spring of 2003, when the United States launched a military attack on Iraq. Both moves were widely reported by the Russian press in a negative manner and condemned by Kremlin officials.
Many think Russian propaganda has tempered its virulent anti-Americanism, at least for the moment, until the Kremlin leadership decides whether U.S. President Barack Obama will bring an improvement in relations over the hostility that existed during the administration of George W. Bush.
For Ukraine, conflict over natural gas affects Russian opinion. The previous dip in attitude (with 29 percent viewing Ukraine positively and 62 percent negatively) took place in January during Russia's three-week gas cutoff.
"Ukraine was described by the majority of Russian media as a Russian gas robber, and it seriously spoiled Russians' attitude," Grazhdankin said.
Pro-NATO rhetoric, attempts to have the 1932-33 Communist-induced famine recognized as genocide against the Ukrainian nation, and attempts to honor the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) that fought against the Communists and Nazis during and after World War II have hurt Russians' view of Ukraine, experts said.
So why do Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin bash Ukraine so hard?
Viktor Chumak, director of political programs at the Kyiv-based International Center for Policy Studies, said, "Ukraine is a country where economic and political competitiveness is cultivated," and such a neighbor is dangerous for Russia's leadership because it offers an alternative to their "soft authoritarian regime."
"The image of Ukraine as an enemy," deep in crisis and worse off than Russia is pushed in the Russian media to convince citizens there is "no better alternative to their own regime," Chumak added.
http://www.praguepost.com/print/2592-region-russian-rhetoric-warms-to-ukraine.html