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RussiaPrussia
05-03-2014, 11:50 AM
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May 1, 2014 2:07 pm
China tried to undermine economic report showing its ascendancy

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and David Pilling in Hong Kong

http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/11c7543d-0a5f-43fa-8c57-7c3145f38887.img

China fought for a year to undermine new data showing it is poised to usurp the US (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl) as the world’s biggest economy in 2014 based on purchasing power, according to people who helped compile the report.
The report, released this week by the International Comparison Programme under the auspices of the World Bank, included a line stating that the “National Bureau of Statistics of China has expressed reservations about some aspects of the methodology”. Beijing has declined to publish the headline number for China and the report said that the NBS “does not endorse the results as official statistics”.







But, according to those involved in compiling the data, China’s distaste for the findings (http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2014/04/30/china-overtakes-the-us-your-questions-answered/) went further.
“A year ago, there was a huge debate. China wanted to throw this out. They don’t want to be seen as number one. They’re worried about the political implications with the US,” said one person involved in preparing the report. “They begged and threatened for a whole year . . . China hates it,” he said.
The main reason for China’s lack of triumphalism is that leaders do not want exposure to the international pressure that comes with being the world’s largest economy, according to people familiar with Chinese official views on the matter.
“They certainly don’t want to overstate the size of their economy. They are sensitive about that,” said Vinod Thomas, director-general of independent evaluation at the Asian Development Bank, which played a role in compiling Chinese statistics for the report. “The pushback and sensitivity has been muted publicly but, behind the scenes, it’s been there for sure.”
China’s tightly controlled state media did not mention the latest estimates, which were widely reported outside the country. Beijing has often balked at international estimates showing it has taken the global lead in everything from carbon emissions to energy use.
Taking the title as the world’s largest economy, held by the US since 1872, might be seen as a crowning achievement after three decades of rapid economic growth. However, China’s leaders are wary of the added international responsibility that could come with it.

“On a per-capita basis, China is still a very poor country so it does not want to be asked to do too much on the international stage – at least not yet,” said an adviser to senior Chinese policy makers.
At current exchange rates and projected growth rates, China is expected to overtake the US in real terms in about a decade but, even then, the country’s 1.36bn people will, on average, be relatively poor (http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2014/04/does-size-matter-china-poised-to-overtake-us-as-worlds-largest-economy-in-2014/).
According to the latest ICP report, in per capita purchasing power terms China ranks just 99th in the world, while the US ranks 12th.

Loki
05-03-2014, 01:12 PM
Interesting.

zhaoyun
05-03-2014, 05:30 PM
Well it all goes along with Deng's advice to "韬光养晦" Taoguang Yanghui, to avoid the spotlight and sunshine, on China's path to development. He believed that to be seen as a primary challenger to the current world order would only spell unnecessary hostility during a period in which China needed peaceful conditions to focus on internal development.

China still has a long way to go. Just being the largest economy is an important milestone, but it's by far one of the least important for a country of China's size. It's socio-economic development and industrial sophistication still has a lot of room to grow.

Prisoner Of Ice
05-05-2014, 02:11 AM
Basically US has become poorer because population is much larger due to crazy immigration for last 50 years. It's 1/3 of china and same space. In another 30 years USA will be just as poor as china on a per capita basis. At the same time, middle east will be in starvation mode and food production will be 100% maxed and unable to increase any. Instead it will shrink because water will be more and more ins carce supply (already in India, half the country has no access to fresh water in their homes).

How awesome the world's future is, and I am so glad that world borders have basically been knocked down because teh future = awesomeness.

curupira
05-05-2014, 04:35 AM
Interesting but their rise is too significant to be effectively hidden.

RussiaPrussia
05-05-2014, 02:13 PM
its also funny that they still dont count macau and hongkong in their gdp numbers

curupira
05-05-2014, 02:30 PM
Can you imagine what would happen if they manage to get to the standards of living and technological levels of Japan?

zhaoyun
05-05-2014, 02:35 PM
Can you imagine what would happen if they manage to get to the standards of living and technological levels of Japan?

I believe it will in probably 50 years. That's what most Westerners do not understand about China, especially those who claim it will be another "Japan", meaning all hype and then deflating. China is a HUGE country. Most outsiders do not understand the size and scale of China, it's not just another country, it's really another world, practically a continent, and a whole civilization unto one state.

Anyways, historically, China was at a higher development standard per capita than Japan. Which is why historically China was the undisputed hegemon of East Asia, it dominated the entire sphere culturally, economically and often times politically except during periods of division. The last 150 years where Japan has been ahead of China has been an aberration of history, and will likely change in the next coming decades. Even if China was only at about 50% of the per capita wealth of Japan and Western countries, it would be a huge dominating force, just look at the sheer size and scale and the numbers.

Anglojew
05-05-2014, 02:39 PM
Basically US has become poorer because population is much larger due to crazy immigration for last 50 years. It's 1/3 of china and same space. In another 30 years USA will be just as poor as china on a per capita basis. At the same time, middle east will be in starvation mode and food production will be 100% maxed and unable to increase any. Instead it will shrink because water will be more and more ins carce supply (already in India, half the country has no access to fresh water in their homes).

How awesome the world's future is, and I am so glad that world borders have basically been knocked down because teh future = awesomeness.

I slightly disagree. In another 30 years the USA will, like China today, be divided completely between the haves and have nots. There will be no real Middle-Class.

zhaoyun
05-05-2014, 02:40 PM
If you want to look at China's future, just look at all the ethnic Chinese states in China's periphery, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, these are all Han Chinese states, and their socio-economic levels are all at Japan's level or in some areas, slightly higher even. The only reason why Mainland China has been a laggard was because of Communism, it lost about 30 years in development, while these other regions had the right combination of political stability and economic opportunity, and its proven that anywhere you have this combination, Chinese culture will thrive and produce a prosperous society. The coastal regions of mainland China today, 30 years after reforms, are already approaching the standards of living of the overseas Chinese states, and that's about 300 million people we are talking about.

zhaoyun
05-05-2014, 02:42 PM
I slightly disagree. In another 30 years the USA will, like China today, be divided completely between the haves and have nots. There will be no real Middle-Class.

It will take much longer than 30 years to have such as seismic shift in the character of a society. The US will continue to have a large middle class in the forseeable future, and will continue to be the primary superpower for at least the next 30 years. After that, the US might be the leader among peers, and perhaps China might become more powerful, after maybe 50-60 years, but it will take a long time before China can challenge the US in terms of the power of its cultural institutions because those take a great deal of time to mature. The US took a long time to challenge the British empire in a wide array of fields even after the US became the primary industrial/economic power in the late 19th century.