China thinks it can defeat America in battle

[Loki]

China thinks it can defeat America in battle (http://theweek.com/article/index/264032/china-thinks-it-can-defeat-america-in-battle)

https://7e8c.https.cdn.softlayer.net/807E8C/origin.theweek.com/img/dir_0121/60788_article_full/sorry-china-but-the-us-still-has-the-upper-hand.jpg?206



The bad news first. The People's Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.

Now the good news. China is wrong — and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America's nuclear-powered submarines.

Moreover, for economic and demographic reasons Beijing has a narrow historical window in which to use its military to alter the world's power structure. If China doesn't make a major military move in the next couple decades, it probably never will.

The U.S. Navy's submarines — the unsung main defenders of the current world order — must hold the line against China for another 20 years. After that, America can declare a sort of quiet victory in the increasingly chilly Cold War with China.

How China wins

The bad news came from Lee Fuell, from the U.S. Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center, during Fuell's testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 30.

For years, Chinese military planning assumed that any attack by the People's Liberation Army on Taiwan or a disputed island would have to begin with a Pearl Harbor-style preemptive missile strike by China against U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. The PLA was so afraid of overwhelming American intervention that it genuinely believed it could not win unless the Americans were removed from the battlefield before the main campaign even began.

A preemptive strike was, needless to say, a highly risky proposition. If it worked, the PLA just might secure enough space and time to defeat defending troops, seize territory, and position itself for a favorable post-war settlement.

But if China failed to disable American forces with a surprise attack, Beijing could find itself fighting a full-scale war on at least two fronts: against the country it was invading plus the full might of U.S. Pacific Command, fully mobilized and probably strongly backed by the rest of the world.

That was then. But after two decades of sustained military modernization, the Chinese military has fundamentally changed its strategy in just the last year or so. According to Fuell, recent writings by PLA officers indicate "a growing confidence within the PLA that they can more-readily withstand U.S. involvement."

The preemptive strike is off the table — and with it, the risk of a full-scale American counterattack. Instead, Beijing believes it can attack Taiwan or another neighbor while also bloodlessly deterring U.S. intervention. It would do so by deploying such overwhelmingly strong military forces — ballistic missiles, aircraft carriers, jet fighters, and the like — that Washington dare not get involved.

The knock-on effects of deterring America could be world-changing. "Backing away from our commitments to protect Taiwan, Japan, or the Philippines would be tantamount to ceding East Asia to China's domination," Roger Cliff, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said at the same U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on Jan. 30.

Worse, the world's liberal economic order — and indeed, the whole notion of democracy — could suffer irreparable harm. "The United States has both a moral and a material interest in a world in which democratic nations can survive and thrive," Cliff asserted.

Fortunately for that liberal order, America possesses by far the world's most powerful submarine force — one poised to quickly sink any Chinese invasion fleet. In announcing its readiness to hold off the U.S. military, the PLA seems to have ignored Washington's huge undersea advantage.

http://media.theweek.com/img/generic/USsubEmbed1.jpg

The Silent Service

It's not surprising that Beijing would overlook America's subs. Most Americans overlook their own undersea fleet — and that's not entirely their own fault. The U.S. sub force takes pains to avoid media coverage in order to maximize its secrecy and stealth. "The submarine cruises the world's oceans unseen," the Navy stated on its Website.

Unseen and unheard. That why the sub force calls itself the "Silent Service."

The Navy has 74 submarines, 60 of which are attack or missile submarines optimized for finding and sinking other ships or blasting land targets. The balance is ballistic-missile boats that carry nuclear missiles and would not routinely participate in military campaigns short of an atomic World War III.

Thirty-three of the attack and missile boats belong to the Pacific Fleet, with major bases in Washington State, California, Hawaii, and Guam. Deploying for six months or so roughly every year and a half, America's Pacific subs frequently stop over in Japan and South Korea and occasionally even venture under the Arctic ice.

According to Adm. Cecil Haney, the former commander of Pacific Fleet subs, on any given day 17 boats are underway and eight are "forward-deployed," meaning they are on station in a potential combat zone. To the Pacific Fleet, that pretty much means waters near China.

America has several submarine types. The numerous Los Angeles-class attack boats are Cold War stalwarts that are steadily being replaced by newer Virginia-class boats with improved stealth and sensors. The secretive Seawolfs, numbering just three — all of them in the Pacific — are big, fast, and more heavily armed than other subs. The Ohio-class missile submarines are former ballistic missile boats each packing 154 cruise missile.

U.S. subs are, on average, bigger, faster, quieter, and more powerful than the rest of the world's subs. And there are more of them. The U.K. is building just seven new Astute attack boats. Russia aims to maintain around 12 modern attack subs. China is struggling to deploy a handful of rudimentary nuclear boats.

Able to lurk silently under the waves and strike suddenly with torpedoes and missiles, submarines have tactical and strategic effect greatly disproportionate to their relatively small numbers. During the 1982 Falklands War, the British sub Conqueror torpedoed and sank the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano, killing 323 men. The sinking kept the rest of the Argentine fleet bottled up for the duration of the conflict.

America's eight-at-a-time submarine picket in or near Chinese waters could be equally destructive to Chinese military plans, especially considering the PLA's limited anti-submarine skills. "Although China might control the surface of the sea around Taiwan, its ability to find and sink U.S. submarines will be extremely limited for the foreseeable future," Cliff testified. "Those submarines would likely be able to intercept and sink Chinese amphibious transports as they transited toward Taiwan."

So it almost doesn't matter that a modernized PLA thinks it possesses the means to fight America above the waves, on land, and in the air. If it can't safely sail an invasion fleet as part of its territorial ambitions, it can't achieve its strategic goals — capturing Taiwan and or some island also claimed by a neighboring country — through overtly military means.

That reality should inform Washington's own strategy. As the United States has already largely achieved the world order it struggled for over the last century, it need only preserve and defend this order. In other words, America has the strategic high ground against China, as the latter must attack and alter the world in order to get what it wants.

In practical military terms, that means the Pentagon can more or less ignore most of China's military capabilities, including those that appear to threaten traditional U.S. advantages in nukes, air warfare, mechanized ground operations, and surface naval maneuvers.

"We won't invade China, so ground forces don't play," pointed out Wayne Hughes, a professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. "We won't conduct a first nuclear strike. We should not adopt an air-sea strike plan against the mainland, because that is a sure way to start World War IV."

Rather, America must deny the Chinese free access to their near waters. "We need only enough access to threaten a war at sea," Hughes said. In his view, a fleet optimized for countering China would have large numbers of small surface ships for enforcing a trade blockade. But the main combatants would be submarines, "to threaten destruction of all Chinese warships and commercial vessels in the China Seas."

Cliff estimated that in wartime, each American submarine would be able to get off "a few torpedo shots" before needing to "withdraw for self-preservation." But assuming eight subs each fire three torpedoes, and just half those torpedoes hit, the American attack boats could destroy all of China's major amphibious ships — and with them, Beijing's capacity for invading Taiwan or seizing a disputed island.

Waiting out the Chinese decline

If American subs can hold the line for another 20 years, China might age right out of its current, aggressive posture without ever having attacked anyone. That's because economic and demographic trends in China point towards a rapidly aging population, flattening economic growth, and fewer resources available for military modernization.

To be fair, almost all developed countries are also experiencing this aging, slowing and increasing peacefulness. But China's trends are pronounced owing to a particularly steep drop in the birth rate traceable back to the Chinese Communist Party's one-child policy.

Another factor is the unusual speed with which the Chinese economy has expanded to its true potential, thanks to the focused investment made possible by an authoritarian government… and also thanks to that government's utter disregard for the natural environment and for the rights of everyday Chinese people.

"The economic model that propelled China through three decades of meteoric growth appears unsustainable," Andrew Erickson, a Naval War College analyst, told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

What Erickson described as China's "pent-up national potential" could begin expiring as early as 2030, by which point "China will have world's highest proportion of people over 65," he predicted. "An aging society with rising expectations, burdened with rates of chronic diseases exacerbated by sedentary lifestyles, will probably divert spending from both military development and the economic growth that sustains it."

Wisely, American political and military leaders have made the investments necessary to sustain U.S. undersea power for at least that long. After a worrying dip in submarine production, starting in 2012 the Pentagon asked for — and Congress funded — the acquisition of two Virginia-class submarines per year for around $2.5 billion apiece, a purchase rate adequate to maintain the world's biggest nuclear submarine fleet indefinitely.

The Pentagon is also improving the Virginia design, adding undersea-launched drones, extra missile capacity, and potentially a new anti-ship missile.

Given China's place in the world, its underlying national trends and America's pointed advantage in just that aspect of military power that's especially damaging to Chinese plans, it seems optimistic for PLA officers to assume they can launch an attack on China's neighbors without first knocking out U.S. forces.

Not that a preemptive strike would make any difference, as the only American forces that truly matter for containing China are the very ones that China cannot reach.

For they are deep underwater.

[Loki]

This article ignores a very important point - in any conflict of the US vs China, Russia will help out. Especially after what happened in Ukraine.

Russia has some of the best nuclear-powered subs in the world, and would be enough to warn off any attack by the US. In fact, Russia is currently building new, ultra-modern subs that would be superior to US ones, and also outnumber them.

[Styrian Mujo]

Ofcourse it can...with ease even.

[Vasconcelos]

Thisx article ignores a very important point - in any conflict of the US vs China, Russia will help out. Especially after what happened in Ukraine.

South Korea and Japan wouldn't just stay idle and watch the whole catastrophe happen.
India woundn't be very happy with an invasion of Taiwan either.

[Hong Key]

...

[Isleño]

Wow, the U.S. is a beast.

[Loki]

Unlikely to happen in Taiwan, because recent negotiations between the PRC and Taiwan have actually been fruitful. Less hostility there.

[zhaoyun]

I doubt it. China's navy is no match for the US navy. But honestly, I don't think there will be any war over Taiwan. The PRC knows that even if it succeeds in occupying Taiwan, it will face great resistance and popular rebellion over it's rule. I'm pretty sure they know that a military takeover of the island would only prove to be a hollow victory, so they're looking at the long game and hoping that growing economic and personal interdependence will eventually bring Taiwan back to the fold.

But honestly, as long as the PRC remains an authoritarian state that is not ruled by law, Taiwan will never be interested in rejoining it, and the PRC leaders know this. But their society will probably still have to wait another 30 years before it reaches the socio-economic per capita parity and political system that is compatible with what the Taiwanese are accustomed to.

[American]

I doubt it. China's navy is no match for the US navy. But honestly, I don't think there will be any war over Taiwan. The PRC knows that even if it succeeds in occupying Taiwan, it will face great resistance and popular rebellion over it's rule. I'm pretty sure they know that a military takeover of the island would only prove to be a hollow victory, so they're looking at the long game and hoping that growing economic and personal interdependence will eventually bring Taiwan back to the fold.

But honestly, as long as the PRC remains an authoritarian state that is not ruled by law, Taiwan will never be interested in rejoining it, and the PRC leaders know this. But their society will probably still have to wait another 30 years before it reaches the socio-economic per capita parity and political system that is compatible with what the Taiwanese are accustomed to.

It's amazing how quickly the Taiwanese were able to modernize and develop after all those years of martial law. It was pretty ugly how everything in China turned out in my opinion; lot's of mistakes and bad leaders. I know China has been rising for many years now and of course they should be it makes sense but how much longer are the people going to submit to the CCP? I don't know enough about the politics to make any concrete statements about it. I've been studying Chinese history, especially their contemporary history and it seems like in this day and age it's amazing that the CCP is still even around. How soon should we expect political change if at all?

[TIGERZZZ]

Not when USA joins with the Allies ofcourse

[Unome]

This article ignores a very important point - in any conflict of the US vs China, Russia will help out. Especially after what happened in Ukraine.

Russia has some of the best nuclear-powered subs in the world, and would be enough to warn off any attack by the US. In fact, Russia is currently building new, ultra-modern subs that would be superior to US ones, and also outnumber them.
US can defeat Russia and China at the same time.

[zhaoyun]

It's amazing how quickly the Taiwanese were able to modernize and develop after all those years of martial law. It was pretty ugly how everything in China turned out in my opinion; lot's of mistakes and bad leaders. I know China has been rising for many years now and of course they should be it makes sense but how much longer are the people going to submit to the CCP? I don't know enough about the politics to make any concrete statements about it. I've been studying Chinese history, especially their contemporary history and it seems like in this day and age it's amazing that the CCP is still even around. How soon should we expect political change if at all?

Those are good questions.

Well, obviously, like everywhere, Communism is generally a disaster. Coupled with having a psychotic and lunatic leader like Chairman Mao with a god like personality cult, the damage was increased a thousand fold. However, since Deng Xiaoping opened up China in 1978, the Mainland has steadily been catching up to the overseas ethnic Chinese territories in development, but it probably still has about 20-30 years to go before it can match that.

China's political system is gradually changing, it's more orderly and lawful than it was 20 years ago, because the population is now more educated and also the quality of politicians are shifting from corrupt apparatchiks to a more professional technocratic class. But it's hard to predict. I think when the per capita living standards and educational levels get closer to that of developed countries, the political system will be forced to become a lot cleaner and protective of individual rights because an educated population would demand no less.

BTW, it's a proven formula everywhere, that

Ethnic Chinese + Market Economy + Political Stability = A prosperous and orderly society.

Just look at HK, Singapore, Taiwan, Macau, all the large Chinese communities around the world, they all have high per capita development levels. Now the Mainland is catching up after screwing up with Communism for a few decades.

[TIGERZZZ]

I don't think USA should interfere if China invades Taiwan or whatever. It's the crisis and there's no money for this right now.
Let the East Asians do as they like

[Manifest Destiny]

US can defeat Russia and China at the same time.

I think we can win a war against either one, but not both at the same time. But we'd have allies, too, so I think we'd win that hypothetical world war.

[American]

Those are good questions.


BTW, it's a proven formula everywhere, that

Ethnic Chinese + Market Economy + Political Stability = A prosperous and orderly society.

Just look at HK, Singapore, Taiwan, Macau, all the large Chinese communities around the world, they all have high per capita development levels. Now the Mainland is catching up after screwing up with Communism for a few decades.

Haha add Southern California and the Bay Area to that list as well; the media makes it seem like every good American university is 99% Asian-American and mostly Chinese. I'm exaggerating of course but I do see it in my everyday life. Where I live there is a huge Asian community and of course that's great I wouldn't want to be anywhere else but yeah you do see a lot more Chinese nowadays in tech and business and all. Back when my parents were in the technology industry in the 80's and 90's of the few Asians they worked with most were Japanese and some Korean (which reflected our local community at that time) and then one Chinese here and one Vietnamese there. In fact my dad worked for a company based in Japan and traveled there frequently. But now he has a lot more Chinese coworkers. I met one of his friends that is from Shanghai and actually went to Peking University. I didn't appreciate his background at the time (I was a few years younger and not as knowledgeable about Asia at that time) but I definitely second what you're saying. I'm all for a 21st century led by China unlike probably most of my American counterparts. Just as long as they still let me into the country I'm good. That's why I try not to blast 'em too much. The 50 Cent Brigade is watching me.

[Jacobus]

China will make many many little china babies like they make plastic toys, then they will make china weapons and then they will attack murica and then they will lose because china weapons are bad like china toys and china babies. In perfect inglish.

[zhaoyun]

Haha add Southern California and the Bay Area to that list as well; the media makes it seem like every good American university is 99% Asian-American and mostly Chinese. I'm exaggerating of course but I do see it in my everyday life. Where I live there is a huge Asian community and of course that's great I wouldn't want to be anywhere else but yeah you do see a lot more Chinese nowadays in tech and business and all. Back when my parents were in the technology industry in the 80's and 90's of the few Asians they worked with most were Japanese and some Korean (which reflected our local community at that time) and then one Chinese here and one Vietnamese there. In fact my dad worked for a company based in Japan and traveled there frequently. But now he has a lot more Chinese coworkers. I met one of his friends that is from Shanghai and actually went to Peking University. I didn't appreciate his background at the time (I was a few years younger and not as knowledgeable about Asia at that time) but I definitely second what you're saying. I'm all for a 21st century led by China unlike probably most of my American counterparts. Just as long as they still let me into the country I'm good. That's why I try not to blast 'em too much. The 50 Cent Brigade is watching me.

Well, Chinese generally value things like family values, hard work, education, entrepreneurship, so those are cultural factors that generally lead to stable and prosperous societies. Also, we are pragmatic people.

Despite all the hype, I still think China has a loooong way to go before catching up to the US. The US has many core strengths that will be difficult for any challenger to emulate any time soon, most of all is its soft power, the strength of its institutions, universities, system, values, so forth.

Also, despite all the hype, I don't think there will be war between China and the US. Neither country wants it first of all. Secondly, there are too many economic links linking the two. Thirdly, they are actually on opposite sides of the globe despite the fact that the US has a large presence in East Asia. I do think there will be a lot of rivalry, but there will also be a lot of mutual trade, investment and influences. What is clear though, is that Sino-US relations will likely be the most important bilateral relationship in this century.

[American]

Well, Chinese generally value things like family values, hard work, education, entrepreneurship, so those are cultural factors that generally lead to stable and prosperous societies. Also, we are pragmatic people.

Despite all the hype, I still think China has a loooong way to go before catching up to the US. The US has many core strengths that will be difficult for any challenger to emulate any time soon, most of all is its soft power, the strength of its institutions, universities, system, values, so forth.

Also, despite all the hype, I don't think there will be war between China and the US. Neither country wants it first of all. Secondly, there are too many economic links linking the two. Thirdly, they are actually on opposite sides of the globe despite the fact that the US has a large presence in East Asia. I do think there will be a lot of rivalry, but there will also be a lot of mutual trade, investment and influences. What is clear though, is that Sino-US relations will likely be the most important bilateral relationship in this century.

I couldn't have worded that any better. I definitely agree with what you're saying. War is not something I think either side wants and I do think it is a little unrealistic. We just gotta hope our leaders think the same way and when there's so much money involved I'm sure they see it the way we do, war would only make things worse for both sides imo.

[SKYNET]

As long as Jews are in the government, Chinese won't perform acts of threats or do something against the US.

[Colonel Frank Grimes]

This article ignores a very important point - in any conflict of the US vs China, Russia will help out. Especially after what happened in Ukraine.

Russia has some of the best nuclear-powered subs in the world, and would be enough to warn off any attack by the US. In fact, Russia is currently building new, ultra-modern subs that would be superior to US ones, and also outnumber them.

Russia wouldn't side with China over the US. A strong China is not in Russia's best interests. The Russians know it's better to fight a propaganda and intelligence war against the US than a real war and the US is of the same mindset. China, on the under hand, could likely prefer military action in a conflict of interests with Russia and it's not like they haven't been eyeing Siberia for awhile. A push for Taiwan today may mean a push for Siberia tomorrow. A sensible and far sighted Russian government would prefer the status quo in the East.

[Scandalf]

The US military might is overwhelming. The only power that could seriously threat the US is Russia.

[Yaroslav]

It can and should. God damn America.

[Manifest Destiny]

It can and should. God damn America.

It probably can't and it won't.

Just to put things in perspective:

http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/g366/drivenascar/1be7e4f0e907dae49d82ebf7e1ae3f0d.jpg

[Manifest Destiny]

The US military might is overwhelming. The only power that could seriously threat the US is Russia.

Neither can match our military hardware, but I think China would be the bigger threat due to it's huge population from which it can conscript soldiers if necessary.

[Longbowman]

This article ignores a very important point - in any conflict of the US vs China, Russia will help out. Especially after what happened in Ukraine.

Russia has some of the best nuclear-powered subs in the world, and would be enough to warn off any attack by the US. In fact, Russia is currently building new, ultra-modern subs that would be superior to US ones, and also outnumber them.

NATO is impregnable. This article pays lip-service to other countries but sure, Russia might have China's back, but I'd rather have the UK, France, Germany, Australia etc.

[LightHouse89]

Im sure those American Special Forces transsexual/transgenders will stop China :rolleyes:

[Unome]

I think China has a better economic & financial future than military. The Chinese somewhat compete against Jewish/Israeli/Zionist world bankers. Both the Chinese and Jews can compete over world finance.

An economic war already is occurring anyway as countries are trying to compete against the US $.

[LightHouse89]

NATO is impregnable. This article pays lip-service to other countries but sure, Russia might have China's back, but I'd rather have the UK, France, Germany, Australia etc.

Yeah right.....NATO is useless outside of Europe. America is downsizing its military so you Europeans should quickly build a bigger force or at least gradually and update your weapon systems. Do not let foreingers in your service...... but maybe if the EU forms its own military it can work? Who knows....I do not think Russia will invade any NATO country but a world war between America vs. China and Russia will be devastating for us.....which in the long run would be beneficial to Europe and most of the world.

America is decreasing its military and by 2020 the Government wants our force to be below or at pre-world war 1 levels. Our foreign policy thank God is dissolving quickly.....there is talk of it dissolving entirely in Europe within less than 100 years [hopefully]. The more powerless America is the better.

I think maybe now with countries like France, Europe is not so bad off.. I mean it has man power and willing man power that is more healthy as oppose to America with 1/3 or more of the population is over weight. If we go to war against those countries, I am sure they would take us alone in such a war and do what they can to influence Europe to not be involved. America is losing its importance and influence in the world and this is what is stirring two sleeping giants...China and Russia. They both could take America and its puppet governments in the middle east, south America etc...... we do not have very many friends in the world and with good reason too.

The Multicultural decadent Empire is coming to its end [Thank God!]. America will not be number 1 for long and it has been defeated by the dollar.... Osama knew how to get us and it defeated us. It drove our economy to the brink....all we need is to lose our economic ties in this world which could happen and we would be finished. Wars are not entirely won with money but for a country losing its influence in the world it does not look like we have a bright future. I think it is for the best though for the world really that we disappear and turn into several smaller fractions. That's what happened with the Roman Empire and will happen here.

[Longbowman]

Yeah right.....NATO is useless outside of Europe. America is downsizing its military so you Europeans should quickly build a bigger force or at least gradually and update your weapon systems. Do not let foreingers in your service...... but maybe if the EU forms its own military it can work? Who knows....I do not think Russia will invade any NATO country but a world war between America vs. China and Russia will be devastating for us.....which in the long run would be beneficial to Europe and most of the world.

America is decreasing its military and by 2020 the Government wants our force to be below or at pre-world war 1 levels. Our foreign policy thank God is dissolving quickly.....there is talk of it dissolving entirely in Europe within less than 100 years [hopefully]. The more powerless America is the better.

I think maybe now with countries like France, Europe is not so bad off.. I mean it has man power and willing man power that is more healthy as oppose to America with 1/3 or more of the population is over weight. If we go to war against those countries, I am sure they would take us alone in such a war and do what they can to influence Europe to not be involved. America is losing its importance and influence in the world and this is what is stirring two sleeping giants...China and Russia. They both could take America and its puppet governments in the middle east, south America etc...... we do not have very many friends in the world and with good reason too.

The Multicultural decadent Empire is coming to its end [Thank God!]. America will not be number 1 for long and it has been defeated by the dollar.... Osama knew how to get us and it defeated us. It drove our economy to the brink....all we need is to lose our economic ties in this world which could happen and we would be finished. Wars are not entirely won with money but for a country losing its influence in the world it does not look like we have a bright future. I think it is for the best though for the world really that we disappear and turn into several smaller fractions. That's what happened with the Roman Empire and will happen here.

K then :)

[LightHouse89]

I think China has a better economic & financial future than military. The Chinese somewhat compete against Jewish/Israeli/Zionist world bankers. Both the Chinese and Jews can compete over world finance.

An economic war already is occurring anyway as countries are trying to compete against the US $.

Most foreign money is worth more than the US $. Our country is a toilet and militaristically going down hill. Our foreign policy in the middle east is gone, along with Kazakhstan and various parts of Asia.....what does that tell you?

[Manifest Destiny]

Yeah right.....NATO is useless outside of Europe. America is downsizing its military so you Europeans should quickly build a bigger force or at least gradually and update your weapon systems. Do not let foreingers in your service...... but maybe if the EU forms its own military it can work? Who knows....I do not think Russia will invade any NATO country but a world war between America vs. China and Russia will be devastating for us.....which in the long run would be beneficial to Europe and most of the world.

America is decreasing its military and by 2020 the Government wants our force to be below or at pre-world war 1 levels. Our foreign policy thank God is dissolving quickly.....there is talk of it dissolving entirely in Europe within less than 100 years [hopefully]. The more powerless America is the better.

I think maybe now with countries like France, Europe is not so bad off.. I mean it has man power and willing man power that is more healthy as oppose to America with 1/3 or more of the population is over weight. If we go to war against those countries, I am sure they would take us alone in such a war and do what they can to influence Europe to not be involved. America is losing its importance and influence in the world and this is what is stirring two sleeping giants...China and Russia. They both could take America and its puppet governments in the middle east, south America etc...... we do not have very many friends in the world and with good reason too.

The Multicultural decadent Empire is coming to its end [Thank God!]. America will not be number 1 for long and it has been defeated by the dollar.... Osama knew how to get us and it defeated us. It drove our economy to the brink....all we need is to lose our economic ties in this world which could happen and we would be finished. Wars are not entirely won with money but for a country losing its influence in the world it does not look like we have a bright future. I think it is for the best though for the world really that we disappear and turn into several smaller fractions. That's what happened with the Roman Empire and will happen here.

Osama didn't put us into debt. Voters did by electing socialist idiots.

And we have the biggest economy in the world. If we go down, we'll probably drag most of the world with us (particularly China, whose economy is in no small part based on selling us their poorly made shit and buying our debt). I think you're right that it will happen, but it will be a disaster for much of the planet.

[LightHouse89]

K then :)

I do not think it is bad for Europe. The UK has a capable military, their own tech, nukes....then you have France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Scandinavia, Turkey all with greatly equipped armies....NATO doesn't even need America anymore. It is far more self reliant than before the cold war where it was entirely dependent on the US. Today European technology surpasses America...as does Asian tech. Our defense budget is pretty bad for a world police force. We need to get funding to fund free healthcare somewhere? if we do not then how can we pay for everyone's healthcare? military spending cuts! Our tanks and their reactive armor technology was designed by Europeans not Americans.....the Missile defense system in Poland was made by Swedes just used to pay for with American tax dollars.

[Benacer]

Worth taking into account, surely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

[LightHouse89]

Osama didn't put us into debt. Voters did by electing socialist idiots.

And we have the biggest economy in the world. If we go down, we'll probably drag most of the world with us (particularly China, whose economy is in no small part based on selling us their poorly made shit and buying our debt). I think you're right that it will happen, but it will be a disaster for much of the planet.

He had the brains to know we would occupy his country....he just thought the jihad against America would be more intense but our economic downfall was the entire real purpose of it. They won. You cannot say they did not. A civilization that worships money and bases its entire system off of is pretty stupid to me....the modern American system but it was much easier to attack the economy the way the terror groups did because it almost crippled us....well it did economically. Our foreign policy is diminishing and rapidly going to disappear one day hopefully soon. What is more interesting to know is which country has the most gold? in the end they will be the richest country in the world. we have some but we by that time will erupt into smaller fractions and resemble a third world country.

I am sure China is prepared for our economic downfall. I am sure many countries are preparing. The world does not want to rely on America...they do not trust us, they cannot trust this country and they want little to do with us. The last 8 years have proven this and it will continue to happen. DO you not find it shocking that the government wants to diminish the military to pre world war one levels....that is very small and largely useless..... if we got attacked we would lost in any war. The Mexican Army should invade at that point along with Canada.

[LightHouse89]

Worth taking into account, surely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

That is going to change drastically....have you been following the news? Maybe you do not get American news? Our leaders flat out told Europe and Ukraine 'your on your own'. The military here has closed down three or four national guard bases.........if they are so broke they cannot afford to keep the national guard that says a lot. I have friends in the service...some of which went threw training only to be told at the end of the 6 months to be given honorable discharges and told to go home [army cannot afford to keep them]. My cousin got paid more to leave the marines than do another 6 year stint.

America militaristically is not going to be number 1 for long. Not to mention the government has said on multiple occasions they plan to reduce our size to pre world war 1 levels. I am not making it up at all.

[Alphawolf]

If you compare the military spending of both nations. Than you find the wright answer.

http://i.imgur.com/F3AvoEq.jpg

[Manifest Destiny]

He had the brains to know we would occupy his country....he just thought the jihad against America would be more intense but our economic downfall was the entire real purpose of it. They won. You cannot say they did not. A civilization that worships money and bases its entire system off of is pretty stupid to me....the modern American system but it was much easier to attack the economy the way the terror groups did because it almost crippled us....well it did economically. Our foreign policy is diminishing and rapidly going to disappear one day hopefully soon. What is more interesting to know is which country has the most gold? in the end they will be the richest country in the world. we have some but we by that time will erupt into smaller fractions and resemble a third world country.

I am sure China is prepared for our economic downfall. I am sure many countries are preparing. The world does not want to rely on America...they do not trust us, they cannot trust this country and they want little to do with us. The last 8 years have proven this and it will continue to happen. DO you not find it shocking that the government wants to diminish the military to pre world war one levels....that is very small and largely useless..... if we got attacked we would lost in any war. The Mexican Army should invade at that point along with Canada.

The money we spent invading Afghanistan was pretty insignificant compared to the rest of our debt. And China is still tied up in our own economic interests. At this point their economy would unavoidably go into the shitter if ours does.

But I agree that America will probably break up into separate nations. This is actually beneficial from a preservationist standpoint.

[Unome]

That is going to change drastically....have you been following the news? Maybe you do not get American news? Our leaders flat out told Europe and Ukraine 'your on your own'. The military here has closed down three or four national guard bases.........if they are so broke they cannot afford to keep the national guard that says a lot. I have friends in the service...some of which went threw training only to be told at the end of the 6 months to be given honorable discharges and told to go home [army cannot afford to keep them]. My cousin got paid more to leave the marines than do another 6 year stint.

America militaristically is not going to be number 1 for long. Not to mention the government has said on multiple occasions they plan to reduce our size to pre world war 1 levels. I am not making it up at all.
It's funny how the Russian nationalists are blaming Ukraine on US even though nobody even cares about the civil unrest in Ukraine…

It's a Slavic problem, not an international one. Russia is worried about its oil pipeline into Europa and competing with the Moslems over oil sales & profits.

Saudi Arabia is rich off of oil, but not Russia. Communism simply destroyed Russia's economic future.

[LightHouse89]

If you compare the military spending of both nations. Than you find the wright answer.

http://i.imgur.com/F3AvoEq.jpg

what I tried to point out is that it will decline very soon. No one believes me but when you have military bases closing all over and leaving countries you will understand. I do not think our NATO bases will close anytime soon but it is getting there because we cannot afford to have them. How can we fund Obamacare? Free Dental care? free living? increasing welfare population? How will we fund these things with a giant military budget? We cannot. Unless we print up more money and cause more inflation. China and Russia plan on increasing their military budget even more within the next few decades..... China is increasing its navy by the way.... give it 15 or 20 years and the most common ships in your harbor will have Chinese flags. You watch. I am sure Europe and Turkey will be okay.....Russia and China view America as the biggest enemy because of our foreign policy.

[LightHouse89]

It's funny how the Russian nationalists are blaming Ukraine on US even though nobody even cares about the civil unrest in Ukraine…

It's a Slavic problem, not an international one. Russia is worried about its oil pipeline into Europa and competing with the Moslems over oil sales & profits.

Saudi Arabia is rich off of oil, but not Russia. Communism simply destroyed Russia's economic future.

An ambitious people are unpredictable and the future today is even more uncertain. 10 years ago I did not think America would lose its place in the world nor did I predict homosexual marriage would be legalized and forced onto every state....but it is. I also did not think illegal immigration would intensify when the government passed free healthcare for everyone....it did. So to say the world will not be different 20 years from now is kind of foolish to say. I view China as very ambitious......if they declared us an enemy, confiscated many of our assets there [corporations], stopped lending us money we would be screwed....they are communists and we are a democracy....by allowing ourselves to be debt slaves to them we are playing their game by their rules not ours. I do not think hardcore commies give a damn about the capitalist economy unless there is something in it for them in the long run. There is something unusual about them and their motives for helping us. Its foolish to be one of these cocky Americans thinking we will still be number 1 fifty years from now. I am not an optimist at all I guess.

[Melina]

US can defeat Russia and China at the same time.

You sir are exaggerating. China and Russia would be way to much for the army that we currently have.

I think we can win a war against either one, but not both at the same time. But we'd have allies, too, so I think we'd win that hypothetical world war.
Don't know but the relationship the U.S has with Israel and Germany is becoming a bit shaky lately.

[Manifest Destiny]

You sir are exaggerating. China and Russia would be way to much for the army that we currently have.

It depends in how much of the war is fought with troops on the ground, and where. If we tried to invade China or Russia, it would be tough for us. Invading America would be nearly impossible for them. If it was fought with aircraft and naval vessels, we'd have a huge advantage in both size and quality of hardware.


Don't know but the relationship the U.S has with Israel and Germany is becoming a bit shaky lately.

Shaky enough that they'd let Russia and China take over big chunks of the world?

[Unome]

You sir are exaggerating. China and Russia would be way to much for the army that we currently have.
Oh ye of little faith, you are a negative-nancy. :silly000:

[LightHouse89]

I think China is patient where as the Russians are more hot headed...... Europeans are primed for another world war while americans are more interested in social issues like illegal immigration which currently being reformed to allow billions of more illegals be given citizenship which is a very wise thing for America to do.... anyway I find it odd many bases in my state are downsizing and closing down. Last night seeing that train I was shocked....I wonder if any of that hardware was sold to Iraq or going to be sold?

I think Americans think we will win the next war but China and Russia are only testing the water to see our reaction. They know how tech is much better so they wont risk allowing themselves to lose....it will be nuclear warfare before they lose.... if that happens we are finished here. we would fire nukes back but all that would do is ruin the worlds environment. there wont be a war anytime soon....China and Russia will gobble up afew countries...we will have the same useless Barry on TV saying America will do something which we all know wont happen. hahaha.

America yeah! http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/24/us/politics/pentagon-plans-to-shrink-army-to-pre-world-war-ii-level.html?_r=0

I like this article.....I am very glad to hear about transgender to be allowed in the service. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/11/hagel-military-transgender-rule-review

I can just image any future conflicts with transsexual soldiers hahahahaha.... my God LOL. I find this funny when I use to find it offensive. My uncle was right before he died....he said this use to be a country of men..now it is turning into a country of pussies.

[Scandalf]

Neither can match our military hardware, but I think China would be the bigger threat due to it's huge population from which it can conscript soldiers if necessary.

The "huge" population is meaningless if we are talking about nuclear warfare capabilities. Did you know that France alone has more nukes than China?

[Scandalf]

You sir are exaggerating. China and Russia would be way to much for the army that we currently have.

Don't know but the relationship the U.S has with Israel and Germany is becoming a bit shaky lately.

The only true partner to the US is the UK. However if there were to be a war vs China and Russia, it would automatically mean that Europe would be threatened too, with obvious consequences.

[Loki]

If America becomes involved, then so will Russia. American subs will chance Russia. Russia currently owns more subs than America has ever had, and more modern and advanced.

[Rojava]

Nuclear warfare is just wrong. Using nuclear power for energy purposes is sensible though. But to kill people? That's just disgusting. These sort of weapons shouldn't even be mentioned during times of war.

[Donnay]

This is hilarious! Mere beating of the drums from warmongers.

Even Britain could defeat China in a straight equidistant war. What people don't realize is that qualitative edge in warfare is mostly derived from the quickness (or lack thereof) in deploying your army, such as command and control, intelligence, and strategic transport, and in this realm Britain, yes the Empire of yesteryear, still has an edge over China. China's army is suited for warfare with its neighbors. At this stage China doesn't come close in ability when compared to the Western powers' long range war capability.


If America becomes involved, then so will Russia. American subs will chance Russia. Russia currently owns more subs than America has ever had, and more modern and advanced.

A war between the U.S and its allies versus China and its allies would result in mutual destruction. And war is nowhere in the future. Trade ties are bringing the U.S and China closer than ever before. It's true that relations between the U.S and Russia are badly strained, mostly due to our managerial incompetence and desire to meddle in others' affairs. If the U.S and Russia could leave each other alone and simply maintain peaceful trade ties imagine how much of a safer world we would have?

[Donnay]

You sir are exaggerating. China and Russia would be way to much for the army that we currently have.

But that's not how modern warfare works. There's no such thing as "too much for the army we currently have" when both sides have thousands of thermonuclear, atomic, and boosted fission missiles. If war was declared both continents could be incinerated within hours bringing down the rest of the world with them.

The days of land invasions are over.

[Mraz]

http://www.chinasourcingblog.org/Industrial%20Clusters.png

Top 100 industrial cities of China. In a conventional war, the USA would destroy this country with its airforce.

[The Illyrian Warrior]

God forbid China ever to become world leading military power due intolerant policy we've seen lately in Far Eastern regional zone.

[Lurker]

The only true partner to the US is the UK. However if there were to be a war vs China and Russia, it would automatically mean that Europe would be threatened too, with obvious consequences.

Japan post WW2 has also been aligned to the US in most defense issues. If Japan hasn't helped the US in its wars it's due to the pacifist clause in the Japanese constitution. A change in that now could raise tensions too much with China, but I think in the event of a world war Japan would align with the US.