hereward
02-24-2010, 03:25 PM
Met Office: we must check 150 years of climate data
More than 150 years of global temperature records are to be re-examined by scientists in an attempt to regain public trust in climate science after revelations about errors and suppression of data.
The Met Office has submitted proposals for the reassessment by an independent panel in a tacit admission that its previous reports have been marred by their reliance on analysis by the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU).
Two separate inquiries are being held into allegations that the CRU tried to hide its raw data from critics and that it exaggerated the extent of global warming.
In a document entitled Proposal for a New International Analysis of Land Surface Air Temperature Data, the Met Office says: “We feel it is timely to propose an international effort to reanalyse surface temperature data in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organisation.”
The new analysis would test the conclusion reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”.
The World Meteorological Organisation said the Met Office proposal had been approved in principle this week by delegates at a meeting in Antalya, Turkey.
The IPCC has come under attack in recent weeks after it emerged that its latest report contained a number of errors, all of which overstated the severity of the threat posed by climate change. The most glaring error was a claim that all Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. Most glaciologists believe it would take another 300 years for the glaciers to melt at the present rate.
The allegations against climate scientists are believed to have contributed to an unprecedented rise in public scepticism about climate change.
An opinion poll this month found that the proportion of the population which believes climate change is an established fact and largely man-made has fallen from 41 per cent in November to 26 per cent.
The Met Office document stresses that the new assessment would be fully independent and be based on data that was freely available to the public and could therefore be examined by climate sceptics.
It says: “The proposed activity would provide a set of independent assessments of surface temperature produced by independent groups using independent methods.”
The Met Office secretly proposed carrying out the reassessment in December last year, soon after more than 1,000 leaked e-mails raised doubts about the integrity of some scientists at the CRU. The Times revealed on December 5 that the Department of Energy and Climate Change had stopped the Met Office from announcing the reassessment because it feared that it would be seized upon as an admission of weakness on the eve of the Copenhagen climate summit.
The reassessment will be hampered by the refusal of authorities in some countries to allow data from their weather stations to be made publicly available. However, data from more than 3,000 of the 5,000 stations around the world has already been published on the Met Office website and it hopes that most of the rest will be available later this year.
The reassessment will also look at the data in much greater detail, tracking daily changes in temperature. The Met Office’s previous report was based on monthly averages.
The document states that the main reason for the reassessment is to “ensure that the datasets are completely robust and that all methods are transparent”.
The Met Office says that it does not expect the reassessment to result in significant changes in its conclusions about how the temperature has changed.
“It is important to emphasise that we do not anticipate any substantial changes in the resulting global and continental-scale multi-decadal trends.”
The Met Office said that the reassessment would take up to three years. It hopes the findings will be ready for the IPCC’s next report, due to be published in 2013 and 2014.
The Met Office intends to hold a meeting at which “key players” from climate science and weather centres around the world would decide how to conduct the reassessment.
It adds: “Recognising that no single institution can undertake such a fundamental data collection, reanalysis and verification process single-handedly, we would envisage this as a broad community effort — a ‘grand challenge’ so to speak — involving UK and international partners.”
The document also suggests that “multiple independent groups” could consider the same raw data.
It adds that scientists participating in the process will be encouraged to be open about the uncertainties in their conclusions.
“Participants will be required to create a full audit trail and publish their methodology in the peer-reviewed literature. Strong preference will be given to systems ... that reflect the uncertainties in the observations and methods.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7039264.ece
Hope this is the right place.
More than 150 years of global temperature records are to be re-examined by scientists in an attempt to regain public trust in climate science after revelations about errors and suppression of data.
The Met Office has submitted proposals for the reassessment by an independent panel in a tacit admission that its previous reports have been marred by their reliance on analysis by the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU).
Two separate inquiries are being held into allegations that the CRU tried to hide its raw data from critics and that it exaggerated the extent of global warming.
In a document entitled Proposal for a New International Analysis of Land Surface Air Temperature Data, the Met Office says: “We feel it is timely to propose an international effort to reanalyse surface temperature data in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organisation.”
The new analysis would test the conclusion reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”.
The World Meteorological Organisation said the Met Office proposal had been approved in principle this week by delegates at a meeting in Antalya, Turkey.
The IPCC has come under attack in recent weeks after it emerged that its latest report contained a number of errors, all of which overstated the severity of the threat posed by climate change. The most glaring error was a claim that all Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. Most glaciologists believe it would take another 300 years for the glaciers to melt at the present rate.
The allegations against climate scientists are believed to have contributed to an unprecedented rise in public scepticism about climate change.
An opinion poll this month found that the proportion of the population which believes climate change is an established fact and largely man-made has fallen from 41 per cent in November to 26 per cent.
The Met Office document stresses that the new assessment would be fully independent and be based on data that was freely available to the public and could therefore be examined by climate sceptics.
It says: “The proposed activity would provide a set of independent assessments of surface temperature produced by independent groups using independent methods.”
The Met Office secretly proposed carrying out the reassessment in December last year, soon after more than 1,000 leaked e-mails raised doubts about the integrity of some scientists at the CRU. The Times revealed on December 5 that the Department of Energy and Climate Change had stopped the Met Office from announcing the reassessment because it feared that it would be seized upon as an admission of weakness on the eve of the Copenhagen climate summit.
The reassessment will be hampered by the refusal of authorities in some countries to allow data from their weather stations to be made publicly available. However, data from more than 3,000 of the 5,000 stations around the world has already been published on the Met Office website and it hopes that most of the rest will be available later this year.
The reassessment will also look at the data in much greater detail, tracking daily changes in temperature. The Met Office’s previous report was based on monthly averages.
The document states that the main reason for the reassessment is to “ensure that the datasets are completely robust and that all methods are transparent”.
The Met Office says that it does not expect the reassessment to result in significant changes in its conclusions about how the temperature has changed.
“It is important to emphasise that we do not anticipate any substantial changes in the resulting global and continental-scale multi-decadal trends.”
The Met Office said that the reassessment would take up to three years. It hopes the findings will be ready for the IPCC’s next report, due to be published in 2013 and 2014.
The Met Office intends to hold a meeting at which “key players” from climate science and weather centres around the world would decide how to conduct the reassessment.
It adds: “Recognising that no single institution can undertake such a fundamental data collection, reanalysis and verification process single-handedly, we would envisage this as a broad community effort — a ‘grand challenge’ so to speak — involving UK and international partners.”
The document also suggests that “multiple independent groups” could consider the same raw data.
It adds that scientists participating in the process will be encouraged to be open about the uncertainties in their conclusions.
“Participants will be required to create a full audit trail and publish their methodology in the peer-reviewed literature. Strong preference will be given to systems ... that reflect the uncertainties in the observations and methods.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7039264.ece
Hope this is the right place.