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Ars Moriendi
10-11-2014, 09:33 PM
Armenia Joins Eurasian Union

http://asbarez.com/127785/armenia-joins-eurasian-union/

http://asbarez.com/App/Asbarez/eng/2014/10/eeu-sign.jpg
Armenia's President Serzh Sarkisian sign an accession treaty with the Eurasian Economic Union in Minsk. Oct. 10, 2014.

MINSK, Belarus (RFE/RL)—After months of delay, Armenia formally joined the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on Friday, drawing praise from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

President Serzh Sarkisian signed a corresponding accession treaty with Putin and Presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus at a summit of the Russian-led bloc held in Minsk.

The signing of the document, originally expected in May, was held up by the Kazakh and Belarusian leaders for apparently economic and geopolitical considerations. It was still not a forgone conclusion in the days leading up to the Minsk summit.

Speaking at the gathering, both Putin and Sarkisian expressed hope that the treaty will be ratified by the parliaments of the EEU’s three member states by the end of this year. The Armenian president said his country should be able to “start working from January 1” as a full-fledged member of an alliance which critics fear will restore Russian hegemony over much of the former Soviet Union.

Putin stressed the importance of Armenia’s accession to the EEU in his opening remarks at the summit posted on the Kremlin’s website. “In our view, Armenia is ready to operate in the Eurasian Economic Union on an equal footing with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan,” he said. “Within a relatively short period of time, since the autumn of 2013, our Armenian friends have … brought their national legislation into conformity with the norms of our integration structure.”

“We hope to see positive macroeconomic effects as early as one or two years after Armenia’s accession,” continued Putin. He said membership in the EEU will give a further boost to Armenia’s trade with Russia and the two other ex-Soviet states. “The other key indicators — Gross Domestic Product, consumer demand, real incomes of the population and employment — should also improve,” he added.

Sarkisian, his government and political allies have likewise asserted over the past year that EEU membership will speed up Armenia’s development by lowering the cost of Russian natural gas for its consumers and facilitating its manufacturers’ access to the vast Russian market. However, the authorities in Yerevan have stopped short of forecasting higher growth rates for the Armenian economy for the next few years.

Economic growth in the country is on the contrary slowing down now primarily because of a fallout from Western economic sanctions that have been imposed on Russia in recent months. The International Monetary Fund said last week that Armenia’s GDP will likely increase, in real terms, by only 2.6 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2015. The Armenian government came up with considerably higher growth projections in its most recent policy program approved by parliament in May.

Entry into the EEU means that Armenia will have to replace its traditionally liberal trade regime with more protectionist policies pursued by the bloc’s three member states. The treaty signed in Minsk allows it to exempt more than 800 types of imported goods from much higher customs duties set by the EEU. Armenian officials say that these exemptions will prevent massive price hikes in the domestic market.

Armenian critics of EEU membership argue, however, that Yerevan will enjoy the trading preferences for only several years and will eventually have to adopt the EEU barriers to trade with the rest of the world and the European Union in particular. They point out that Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan account between them for less than 25 percent of Armenia’s overall foreign trade.

The Armenian government was poised to finalize a far-reaching free-trade deal with the EU when Sarkisian unexpectedly decided in August 2013 to make his country part of the Russian-led bloc. The deal fell through as a result of his U-turn widely attributed to strong Russian pressure.

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Military concerns by Yerevan might have trumped all criticism against fully joining the Eurasian Union.
Tass reported today about it:

After joining EEU, Armenia to exempt from duty military products, planes
http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/753925

The benefit will relate to products designed for Armenia’s armed forces, whose analogues are not produced in other EEU members

http://videocdn.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/en/uploads/i/20141012/1064961.jpg

MOSCOW, October 11. /TASS/. After joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), Armenia will exempt from customs duties military products to be imported in 2015-2022, according to the treaty on Armenia’s accession to the EEU posted on the website of the Eurasian Economic Commission, an EEU regulatory body.
The benefit will relate to products designed for Armenia’s armed forces, whose analogues are not produced in other EEU members.

Also exempted from duty will be certain types of civil helicopters and jets, as well as goods imported to Armenia for construction and modernization of nuclear power plants.

Yaroslav
10-11-2014, 09:41 PM
About time. Maidan is already in the works.

Thousands protest against government in Armenia (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/10/thousands-protest-against-government-armenia)

More than 10,000 opposition supporters turn out at rally in Yerevan calling for snap elections

Ars Moriendi
10-12-2014, 03:41 AM
About time. Maidan is already in the works.

Thousands protest against government in Armenia (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/10/thousands-protest-against-government-armenia)

More than 10,000 opposition supporters turn out at rally in Yerevan calling for snap elections

In all fairness, unlike the Ukrianian rebellion that was primarily motivated by Yanukovich's refusal to sign the Association Agreement, there doesn't seem to be a link between these 2 events. At a first glance, seems to be directed more against internal issues.

But of course, I don't know enough of these protests, will keep an eye open though. Thanks for adding that.

Arsenium DeLight
10-12-2014, 06:13 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-yfigH1d2c

Musso
10-15-2014, 08:03 AM
Some points to keep in mind:

1) Eurasian Union comes into force January 1, 2015. It is possible that obstacles come into light till then for Armenia. What was signed is an official roadmap.
2) Armenian public is pro-Russian. The opposition support the Eurasian integration. Very few politicians speak against this move. So a "Maidan" is quite unlikely in Armenia. One of the most pro-West politicians is the current President actually.
3) Joining Eurasian Union was more for security than anything else, or else we would have gone with the EU. EU is not willing to protect us against Turkey and sell us sophisticated weapons at a low price, but Russia is. Russia threatened to take away all those security guarantees if we joined EU. So we had no choice. If one day, the conflicts with our neighbors our solved and our security issues are solved, we will change to the EU in a heartbeat. Trust me.

Jehan
10-15-2014, 08:19 AM
Some points to keep in mind:

1) Eurasian Union comes into force January 1, 2015. It is possible that obstacles come into light till then for Armenia. What was signed is an official roadmap.
2) Armenian public is pro-Russian. The opposition support the Eurasian integration. Very few politicians speak against this move. So a "Maidan" is quite unlikely in Armenia. One of the most pro-West politicians is the current President actually.
3) Joining Eurasian Union was more for security than anything else, or else we would have gone with the EU. EU is not willing to protect us against Turkey and sell us sophisticated weapons at a low price, but Russia is. Russia threatened to take away all those security guarantees if we joined EU. So we had no choice. If one day, the conflicts with our neighbors our solved and our security issues are solved, we will change to the EU in a heartbeat. Trust me.

I totally agree that russian are the best possible ally for armenia. They show that even in trouble they never let their ally alone. EU and USA can't say the same thing. And a big armenian community live in Russia.

But the end of your message is a fucking offense. You build relation with a country and you will change for the opposite in a heatbeat by interest...

Musso
10-15-2014, 08:24 AM
I totally agree that russian are the best possible ally for armenia. They show that even in trouble they never let their ally alone. EU and USA can't say the same thing. And a big armenian community live in Russia.

But the end of your message is a fucking offense. You build relation with a country and you will change for the opposite in a heatbeat by interest...

I said the last part, because if we have the freedom and luxury, we will choose EU over Russia like we were going to do until Russia threatened our national security. Russia knows this, EU knows this, and we know that. We continue to bring our country to European standards in terms of politicsl and economics, in terms of laws our country is more progressive than the Eurasian Union countries, and Armenia is much more free in terms of political and civil rights than the Eurasian Union countries. So basically we are joining a club of nations that are less free and less democratic than us, but we are doing it for our national security.

denz
10-15-2014, 08:43 AM
I said the last part, because if we have the freedom and luxury, we will choose EU over Russia like we were going to do until Russia threatened our national security. Russia knows this, EU knows this, and we know that. We continue to bring our country to European standards in terms of politicsl and economics, in terms of laws our country is more progressive than the Eurasian Union countries, and Armenia is much more free in terms of political and civil rights than the Eurasian Union countries. So basically we are joining a club of nations that are less free and less democratic than us, but we are doing it for our national security.

Another goal of Putin to EU, score 3-0, Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia

Jehan
10-15-2014, 09:27 AM
I said the last part, because if we have the freedom and luxury, we will choose EU over Russia like we were going to do until Russia threatened our national security. Russia knows this, EU knows this, and we know that. We continue to bring our country to European standards in terms of politicsl and economics, in terms of laws our country is more progressive than the Eurasian Union countries, and Armenia is much more free in terms of political and civil rights than the Eurasian Union countries. So basically we are joining a club of nations that are less free and less democratic than us, but we are doing it for our national security.


Ok, i wasn't know that Russia threatened your national security. I knew during the war againd Azeris they help both side, but in general i was thinking it was your best allys. And the danger is more Azeri and Turks.
On the economic side, it can be good for Armenia to join this group. Without development Armenia will loose his population and can't put his army to modern standard.
I hope i'am wrong but i strongly beleive that it's just a question of time before you get involved in a new war against your neighboor.

Musso
10-15-2014, 10:09 AM
Ok, i wasn't know that Russia threatened your national security. I knew during the war againd Azeris they help both side, but in general i was thinking it was your best allys. And the danger is more Azeri and Turks.
On the economic side, it can be good for Armenia to join this group. Without development Armenia will loose his population and can't put his army to modern standard.
I hope i'am wrong but i strongly beleive that it's just a question of time before you get involved in a new war against your neighboor.


They threatened to take away the security guarantees that they have for us. So if we didn't choose Russia, we would endanger our national security. I believe there are incentives economically in the Eurasian Union, but we have more trade with the EU and the EU is also a bigger market. Also we get more investments from France and Argentina, than Russia, suprisingly enough. In the end, the most important thing for a country is its national security, so that is why we are with Russia for now.

Jehan
10-15-2014, 06:34 PM
In a way i understand Russians, why they should deal with your security if you don't want to make alliance with them.

I check on wikipedia and it seems that Russia is still the partner number one for importation and exportation. But maybe if you take all european country together, UE is first.

Musso
10-15-2014, 06:51 PM
In a way i understand Russians, why they should deal with your security if you don't want to make alliance with them.

I check on wikipedia and it seems that Russia is still the partner number one for importation and exportation. But maybe if you take all european country together, UE is first.

Well, we host their military bases here, so it benefits them also to have real estate in the Caucasus.

EU as a whole has more trade with us, and in terms of foreign investments the number one country is Argentina, then France, then Russia. (latest figures).

SKYNET
10-15-2014, 06:57 PM
China should be a leader as a member in Eurasian Union

Ars Moriendi
10-15-2014, 06:59 PM
China should be a leader as a member in Eurasian Union

Eurasia =/= Eastasia ;)

Copyright, 1984.

KawaiiKawaii
10-15-2014, 07:01 PM
Poor Armenia. Well, it was Eurasia or being eaten alive by Turkey, so they chose the lesser evil. Good luck with corruption, economic collapse and so on!

Musso
10-15-2014, 07:01 PM
Honestly, I'm not too enthusiastic about the Eurasian Union. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia are all oligarch dominated countries with protectionist policies. Armenia on the other hand has been reforming with the EU for years and has a liberal economic system (devised and supported by IMF/World Bank). So this is in a way a step back for us, but we had no other choice.

However, since we have the most liberal economic laws in the Eurasian Union and our laws are closest to that of the EU, we could be a bridge for Europeans looking to do business with the Eurasian Market.

Ars Moriendi
10-15-2014, 07:11 PM
Honestly, I'm not too enthusiastic about the Eurasian Union. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia are all oligarch dominated countries with protectionist policies. Armenia on the other hand has been reforming with the EU for years and has a liberal economic system (devised and supported by IMF/World Bank). So this is in a way a step back for us, but we had no other choice.

However, since we have the most liberal economic laws in the Eurasian Union and our laws are closest to that of the EU, we could be a bridge for Europeans looking to do business with the Eurasian Market.

I bolded that part since I wanted to ask if you really think the IMF/World Bank/WTO system is positive?

Musso
10-15-2014, 07:13 PM
I bolded that part since I wanted to ask if you really think the IMF/World Bank/WTO system is positive?

I personally believe in right wing economics, I'm a neo-liberal when it comes to economics, so for that reason I do prefer the neo-liberal policies supported by IMF/World Bank more so than the protectionist policies pursued by Russia.

Gaston
10-15-2014, 07:19 PM
RIP Armenia.

Äijä
10-15-2014, 07:32 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHomETco0MI

Ars Moriendi
10-15-2014, 07:41 PM
^^ In terms of socio-economic model, I think Russia is even more capitalist today than Scandinavian welfare societies.

Cronyism in Russia is political in nature (siloviki's circle), while Western cleptocracy is based around private actors, such as financial institutions, energy companies or offshoring multinationals.

Jehan
10-15-2014, 07:41 PM
When you say the name of the member of eurasian union, no doubt that you don't sell dream. But Russia and Kazakstan are full of natural ressource. It's not because the other country have oligarch and corruption that automatically Armenia will get.

And don't forget European Union isn't so strong. It seems, it's an ideal for you, but UE fail to help his own member as Spain and Greece. Island pass the crisis by making the exacte opposit of UE recomandation and don't join the union.
During the year 2001 to 2007, Romania increase is economic level, they join UE in 2007 and that's the end...

Musso
10-15-2014, 07:54 PM
When you say the name of the member of eurasian union, no doubt that you don't sell dream. But Russia and Kazakstan are full of natural ressource. It's not because the other country have oligarch and corruption that automatically Armenia will get.

And don't forget European Union isn't so strong. It seems, it's an ideal for you, but UE fail to help his own member as Spain and Greece. Island pass the crisis by making the exacte opposit of UE recomandation and don't join the union.
During the year 2001 to 2007, Romania increase is economic level, they join UE in 2007 and that's the end...

Given our geography though, free trade with Europe would be more beneficial in terms of economics. We don't share any borders with the Eurasian countries, and our only access to Russia is through Georgia, and you know what Georgia thinks about Russia and Co. That is why we intended to join EU Association not Eurasian Union, but were strong armed into joining the Eurasian Group.

Kazakhstan and Belarus are also allied with our enemy, Azerbaijan.

Jehan
10-15-2014, 08:22 PM
Armenia don't share border with any european country. For me geographically you aren't more closer to UE than Eurasian countrys than Eurasian.

I beleive that Armenia should never join European Union anyways. To much factors should block the adhesion.
Georgia must be more cautious, they have islamist on his door so.

Musso
10-15-2014, 08:25 PM
Armenia don't share border with any european country. For me geographically you aren't more closer to UE than Eurasian countrys than Eurasian.

I beleive that Armenia should never join European Union anyways. To much factors should block the adhesion.
Georgia must be more cautious, they have islamist on his door so.

But Armenia shares border with Georgia which is economically in Europe's camp, plus if the border with Turkey ever opens we will have a border with another EU-free trade country. While to get to Russia, we have to go through Georgia, and as you know Georgia and Russia don't get along.

I'm not talking about joining EU, I'm talking about Association Agreement with EU which Moldova, Georgia signed.

Jehan
10-15-2014, 08:28 PM
Does this agreement really benefit to moldova and georgia?

Except a revolution, i don't see any issu that your border with turkey will be open.

Musso
10-15-2014, 08:31 PM
Does this agreement really benefit to moldova and georgia?

Except a revolution, i don't see any issu that your border with turkey will be open.

In the long term it benefits them I would say.

What would be ideal for Armenia is to have free trade with EU and Eurasian Union

Armenian Bishop
10-16-2014, 02:37 AM
In his October, 2014, news article, Sassounian, Editor of the California Courier, established 3 criteria that benefit Armenia, as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Excerpts from: The West Must Offer Armenia Incentives Rather than Decry its Ties with Russia.

http://armenianweekly.com/2014/10/15/sassounian-west-must-offer-armenia-incentives-rather-decry-ties-russia/

* In the final analysis, three essential questions need to be raised on Armenia’s membership in the EEU:

1) Given the ongoing Artsakh conflict and Azerbaijan’s multi-billion dollar military spending spree, which country has sold and will continue to sell Armenia advanced weapons to mitigate the growing threat from Baku? Not the Unites States, Great Britain, or France, but Russia!

2) Which country can provide Armenia with desperately needed natural gas at any price, let alone at subsidized prices? Russia and Iran to a lesser extent through a small pipeline.

3) Since Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner, it makes more economic sense to have favorable tax terms with that country than with Europe. Not joining the EEU would place Armenia at a serious tax disadvantage with devastating economic consequences.