Vlach
11-20-2014, 11:31 AM
A interesting article in romanian, I translated it with google translate.
"On November 30 parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova, crucial for the region, given that the aim is to get the Russian elections in Chisinau what obtained in Kiev through military confrontation. To achieve this in Chisinau, Moscow has two scenarios: one aggressive and peaceful one, "writes Dan Dungaciu, director of the Institute of Political Science of the Romanian Academy.
On November 30 parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova, crucial for the region, given that the aim is to get the Russian elections in Chisinau what obtained in Kiev through military confrontation. I mean indefinitely blocking the path of Euro-Atlantic Moldova and transforming the idea of "Euro-Atlantic integration" into a slogan devoid of any real significance. To achieve this in Chisinau, Moscow has two scenarios: one aggressive and one peaceful. Before, however, a brief statement of context.
Elections Europe and Russia on the horizon in the head Nov. 30 parliamentary elections are primarily geopolitical. Shades can be made, but become irrelevant in relation to real stake. Election, Moldova looks like this: one third do not vote third vote goes pro-Western parties (the Liberal Democratic Party, Democratic Party Liberalşi), third pro Eastern (Communist Party, the Socialist Party and Motherland Party). We elections from November 30 to see the vector of development of Moldova, no doctrine that will govern the country. This is the major difference between elections in Moldova or the Ukraine and Romania, for example. In reality, any comparisons "three" are completely false. In Romania, NATO and EU member state, and presidential elections are political choices, which will decide which parties and politicians will lead the country without change, in substance, no Euro-Atlantic orientation or membership of Romania in these institutions. In Moldova, the situation is unfortunately another.
Elections decide the direction. While there this electoral reality, Moldova has no real chance to get out of the gray / buffer and to integrate into Euro-Atlantic space. If we were to find, however, a link between electoral processes in the three countries, it is the contagion effect. Victoria pro and anti-Russian forces in Ukraine and Klaus Johannis presidential victory in Romania blowing in the sails AEI in Chisinau, so the Western camp. Despite the balances recorded in the polls, the first chance they have three pro-European parties, because they are not only beneficiaries of redistribution, but rather a vote of diaspora and Romania, which Moldova is more significant , percentage speaking. Moscow, however, has its stakes. And to prevent the Alliance for European Integration to impose Chisinau and keep alive Euro-Atlantic integration project, has two scenarios.
Aggressive scenario: boys in tracksuits in Moscow in early November, the Socialist Party leader, Igor Dodon, was in Moscow where he met including President Vladimir Putin. On this occasion, the Federal Migration Service of the Russian Federation took a decision seemingly inexplicable: Moldovan workers who violated in one way or another, the migration policy of Russia, will be able to return to Moldova in the period 5-30 November, after which they can return freely to Russia to legalize, to resume work freely, without restrictions being canceled all previous sanctions. Why does Russia that? From Moscow's sincere desire to facilitate the process of Moldovan migrants voting in the elections of November 30? It's not like that. The explanation must be sought elsewhere. Official Chisinau says it is about RM 300,000 workers in the Russian Federation, the Russians speak circa500. 000, but is circulated informally and 7-900 numbers 000. Of these, it is very plausible that tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, to be violated Russian law. The fact that Moscow sends them to vote in Chisinau, promising them that he would legalize thereafter is to her advantage, for two reasons. First, they are usually Russian-speaking electorate parties, so an indirect advantage. The second argument is the other. Moldovan workers are the most effective coverage to send groups of people in Chisinau. If the Russian Federation has a counter-Maidan project in Moldova after the elections of November 30, in the event of winning elections by the pro-Europeans can make the script with solid guys in tracksuits, which, in 1989, came to Romania the USSR. And the best mechanism to do this is the exact mechanism of Moldovan workers sent home in Chisinau, to vote, because no one can stop them as citizens to return home. And anyway, no one can control the way who will enter the country. Vote, and protest, can revolt if AEI will win a majority government with Europeans Have You voted, now Russia will block our jobs, we will put the visa, we will prohibit to work there we remain on the street, we have no salaries and jobs, Chisinau we asigurănimic etc.! In reality, we are like the bench Radio Erevan cycling and Mercedes: Igor Dodon asked not to go to Moscow to make calls on the Russian authorities to "release" Moldovan workers, but the Kremlin urgently summoned and put forwards the request to Moscow was going to do to allow emigrants to vote in Chisinau Chisinau authorities signals ... lately various outbreaks of conflict and revolution on the territory of Moldova. But no one in Chisinau does not mention about the enormous potential for conflict that Moscow, the "request" Igor Dodon, it can trigger. Peaceful scenario: ... Donbas monstrous coalition or the government's theory, the second possibility for Russia to stop the reconstruction of a European project for Moldova is the power that would come from the East forces. Scenario is only hypothetical, because chances are rather utopian. After interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Moscow has sparked a wave of fear that disrupted major attractiveness (geo) politics. The three parties in Chisinau Eastern carriers have the option to take a majority votes viable. But there is a version of "peaceful scenario". For a ghost haunt in Chisinau, and her name is .... "grand coalition" .is about a broad coalition, "national unity" to bring together the LDP and ... PC! That two parties declared pro-European will sit together at the table PCRM majority. PCRM And, as in 2005, will put ashes on the head, in the mind of Vladimir Voronin will produce another "orange revolution" that will make pro-European and thus become eligible for government. It's a monstrous coalition completely against nature, but will be sold with the following "arguments" is solid, consistent, can provide long-term stability; collected over 61 seats, so you could, over two and a half years to elect the president; will be based coalition of "national idea" - "Moldovan", nothing else! - That will be the common denominator of this alliance eclectic and Moldova State will be based on its governance, a solid coagulated element: We Moldovan and punctum. It tried that in 2005 and the result was dead, wounded and tortured children on April 7, 2009. The problem with this "peaceful scenario" is that they agree perfectly Russia. In fact, it would solve the problem that Russia would receive guarantees that nothing spectacular so it will not script can spend in the Euro-Atlantic perspective. PCRM's Donbas Moscow in Moldova, namely that Russia casts anchor in Moldova to prevent it go to the West, as do separtiste regions in Ukraine. Bringing the ruling communists means that Russia has met all objectives. The Trap "national unity coalition" could fall and some circles occcidentale.
http://adevarul.ro/assets/adevarul.ro/MRImage/2014/11/08/545e09e60d133766a8a81e03/646x404.jpg?1416481303
Saturated any discussion of expanding and irritated by the insistence, especially in Romania, to provide guarantors Moldovan integration, they should be willing to accept a form of "negative geopolitical" in the region on which they agree and Moscow . Nobody, neither East nor West, not only manage Moldova and Chisinau, caught in the straps of this coalition, will not integrate to the end nor the EU (about NATO no longer an issue, because the Liberal Party will be removed from the game), but neither in the Eurasian Union. We are yet in the space of assumptions and speculation. But ghost "Grand Coalition" in Chisinau haunt anyone, at this point, not a firmly rejects. In addition, speculations are a relatively favorable since two of the three pro-European parties in Chisinau (LDP) have practiced a circumstantial alliance with the Communists in the short term and for their own interests. Europe can not repeat the mistake of 2005 the short term, the largest stake of the foreign policy of Romania holds parliamentary elections left Prut. Cannibalize the post-election situation in Romania, the stakes developments in Chisinau is, however, crucial. What wants Bucharest in the region is that Moldova is not in any way follow the Ukrainian scenario and keep the chances of accession, in one way or another, the Euro-Atlantic space. A number of measures are taken for granted until it is too late. 1. Chisinau authorities should be supported political, logistical or media in anticipation of street movements ("counter-Maidan") contesting the outcome of the democratic vote of the citizens of Moldova. 2. Danger "monstrous coalition" there. Therefore, to ensure that voting pro-European voters will not bring the Communists to power, the three pro-European parties must reject any possibility, be it theoretical, to return to power the PC, after that fateful April 7. When people died, has closed the border with Romania, and Chisinau was completely isolated from the rest of Europe. All these things made by PCRM government. 3. pro-European parties should be aware that there is a serious risk of some public complaints if they betray the pro-European. If AEI get majority government, but the parties prefer to enter into other combinations, not just EU will feel betrayed, but voters in the Republic of Moldova, Romania or in the diaspora. The risk is real protests. Flirting with the idea of "monstrous coalition" can be black swan that will overturn all electoral calculations. Example Romania is alive! 4. A "monstrous coalition" would lock in reality, all efforts Europeanization of Moldova made so far by the EU, including Romania. Such a gesture would give grist to the mill of those who say that Moldova can not receive, even in Eastern Partnership priovilegiat treatment since, after five years of pro-European government, brought to power ... Communist Party. 5. Eastern Partnership, whose only hope now remains only a pro-European coalition in Chisinau can not end so pathetic. He started in May 2009 when, while almost, with its inauguration in Prague Communist Party expel the Romanian ambassador in Chisinau, closing the border with Romania and visa put European citizens. It would be a terrible irony that, five years after the inauguration of the Eastern Partnership, the state only as successful as the political format, you end up just Communist Party returns to power. 6. In Bucharest, when the presidential election is over. Romania should give strong messages clear that European option can not be stained. In 2005, Romanian officials have endorsed the "orange revolution" in his head and blessed Voronin (along with the presidents of Ukraine and Georgia) taking option "European" by the communists. There were no past two years and began to regret publicly that gesture. Romania and its president can not make the same mistake a second time. Tolerating or administer a "monstrous coalition" means to completely discredit foreign policy actor. At that moment, from Eastern Europe, you will hear a huge laugh ...
Read more: http://adevarul.ro/international/europa/rusia-pregateste-contra-maidanul-chisinau-scenariul-agresiv-scenariul-pasnic-1_546db0390d133766a81166db/index.html
"On November 30 parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova, crucial for the region, given that the aim is to get the Russian elections in Chisinau what obtained in Kiev through military confrontation. To achieve this in Chisinau, Moscow has two scenarios: one aggressive and peaceful one, "writes Dan Dungaciu, director of the Institute of Political Science of the Romanian Academy.
On November 30 parliamentary elections will take place in Moldova, crucial for the region, given that the aim is to get the Russian elections in Chisinau what obtained in Kiev through military confrontation. I mean indefinitely blocking the path of Euro-Atlantic Moldova and transforming the idea of "Euro-Atlantic integration" into a slogan devoid of any real significance. To achieve this in Chisinau, Moscow has two scenarios: one aggressive and one peaceful. Before, however, a brief statement of context.
Elections Europe and Russia on the horizon in the head Nov. 30 parliamentary elections are primarily geopolitical. Shades can be made, but become irrelevant in relation to real stake. Election, Moldova looks like this: one third do not vote third vote goes pro-Western parties (the Liberal Democratic Party, Democratic Party Liberalşi), third pro Eastern (Communist Party, the Socialist Party and Motherland Party). We elections from November 30 to see the vector of development of Moldova, no doctrine that will govern the country. This is the major difference between elections in Moldova or the Ukraine and Romania, for example. In reality, any comparisons "three" are completely false. In Romania, NATO and EU member state, and presidential elections are political choices, which will decide which parties and politicians will lead the country without change, in substance, no Euro-Atlantic orientation or membership of Romania in these institutions. In Moldova, the situation is unfortunately another.
Elections decide the direction. While there this electoral reality, Moldova has no real chance to get out of the gray / buffer and to integrate into Euro-Atlantic space. If we were to find, however, a link between electoral processes in the three countries, it is the contagion effect. Victoria pro and anti-Russian forces in Ukraine and Klaus Johannis presidential victory in Romania blowing in the sails AEI in Chisinau, so the Western camp. Despite the balances recorded in the polls, the first chance they have three pro-European parties, because they are not only beneficiaries of redistribution, but rather a vote of diaspora and Romania, which Moldova is more significant , percentage speaking. Moscow, however, has its stakes. And to prevent the Alliance for European Integration to impose Chisinau and keep alive Euro-Atlantic integration project, has two scenarios.
Aggressive scenario: boys in tracksuits in Moscow in early November, the Socialist Party leader, Igor Dodon, was in Moscow where he met including President Vladimir Putin. On this occasion, the Federal Migration Service of the Russian Federation took a decision seemingly inexplicable: Moldovan workers who violated in one way or another, the migration policy of Russia, will be able to return to Moldova in the period 5-30 November, after which they can return freely to Russia to legalize, to resume work freely, without restrictions being canceled all previous sanctions. Why does Russia that? From Moscow's sincere desire to facilitate the process of Moldovan migrants voting in the elections of November 30? It's not like that. The explanation must be sought elsewhere. Official Chisinau says it is about RM 300,000 workers in the Russian Federation, the Russians speak circa500. 000, but is circulated informally and 7-900 numbers 000. Of these, it is very plausible that tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, to be violated Russian law. The fact that Moscow sends them to vote in Chisinau, promising them that he would legalize thereafter is to her advantage, for two reasons. First, they are usually Russian-speaking electorate parties, so an indirect advantage. The second argument is the other. Moldovan workers are the most effective coverage to send groups of people in Chisinau. If the Russian Federation has a counter-Maidan project in Moldova after the elections of November 30, in the event of winning elections by the pro-Europeans can make the script with solid guys in tracksuits, which, in 1989, came to Romania the USSR. And the best mechanism to do this is the exact mechanism of Moldovan workers sent home in Chisinau, to vote, because no one can stop them as citizens to return home. And anyway, no one can control the way who will enter the country. Vote, and protest, can revolt if AEI will win a majority government with Europeans Have You voted, now Russia will block our jobs, we will put the visa, we will prohibit to work there we remain on the street, we have no salaries and jobs, Chisinau we asigurănimic etc.! In reality, we are like the bench Radio Erevan cycling and Mercedes: Igor Dodon asked not to go to Moscow to make calls on the Russian authorities to "release" Moldovan workers, but the Kremlin urgently summoned and put forwards the request to Moscow was going to do to allow emigrants to vote in Chisinau Chisinau authorities signals ... lately various outbreaks of conflict and revolution on the territory of Moldova. But no one in Chisinau does not mention about the enormous potential for conflict that Moscow, the "request" Igor Dodon, it can trigger. Peaceful scenario: ... Donbas monstrous coalition or the government's theory, the second possibility for Russia to stop the reconstruction of a European project for Moldova is the power that would come from the East forces. Scenario is only hypothetical, because chances are rather utopian. After interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Moscow has sparked a wave of fear that disrupted major attractiveness (geo) politics. The three parties in Chisinau Eastern carriers have the option to take a majority votes viable. But there is a version of "peaceful scenario". For a ghost haunt in Chisinau, and her name is .... "grand coalition" .is about a broad coalition, "national unity" to bring together the LDP and ... PC! That two parties declared pro-European will sit together at the table PCRM majority. PCRM And, as in 2005, will put ashes on the head, in the mind of Vladimir Voronin will produce another "orange revolution" that will make pro-European and thus become eligible for government. It's a monstrous coalition completely against nature, but will be sold with the following "arguments" is solid, consistent, can provide long-term stability; collected over 61 seats, so you could, over two and a half years to elect the president; will be based coalition of "national idea" - "Moldovan", nothing else! - That will be the common denominator of this alliance eclectic and Moldova State will be based on its governance, a solid coagulated element: We Moldovan and punctum. It tried that in 2005 and the result was dead, wounded and tortured children on April 7, 2009. The problem with this "peaceful scenario" is that they agree perfectly Russia. In fact, it would solve the problem that Russia would receive guarantees that nothing spectacular so it will not script can spend in the Euro-Atlantic perspective. PCRM's Donbas Moscow in Moldova, namely that Russia casts anchor in Moldova to prevent it go to the West, as do separtiste regions in Ukraine. Bringing the ruling communists means that Russia has met all objectives. The Trap "national unity coalition" could fall and some circles occcidentale.
http://adevarul.ro/assets/adevarul.ro/MRImage/2014/11/08/545e09e60d133766a8a81e03/646x404.jpg?1416481303
Saturated any discussion of expanding and irritated by the insistence, especially in Romania, to provide guarantors Moldovan integration, they should be willing to accept a form of "negative geopolitical" in the region on which they agree and Moscow . Nobody, neither East nor West, not only manage Moldova and Chisinau, caught in the straps of this coalition, will not integrate to the end nor the EU (about NATO no longer an issue, because the Liberal Party will be removed from the game), but neither in the Eurasian Union. We are yet in the space of assumptions and speculation. But ghost "Grand Coalition" in Chisinau haunt anyone, at this point, not a firmly rejects. In addition, speculations are a relatively favorable since two of the three pro-European parties in Chisinau (LDP) have practiced a circumstantial alliance with the Communists in the short term and for their own interests. Europe can not repeat the mistake of 2005 the short term, the largest stake of the foreign policy of Romania holds parliamentary elections left Prut. Cannibalize the post-election situation in Romania, the stakes developments in Chisinau is, however, crucial. What wants Bucharest in the region is that Moldova is not in any way follow the Ukrainian scenario and keep the chances of accession, in one way or another, the Euro-Atlantic space. A number of measures are taken for granted until it is too late. 1. Chisinau authorities should be supported political, logistical or media in anticipation of street movements ("counter-Maidan") contesting the outcome of the democratic vote of the citizens of Moldova. 2. Danger "monstrous coalition" there. Therefore, to ensure that voting pro-European voters will not bring the Communists to power, the three pro-European parties must reject any possibility, be it theoretical, to return to power the PC, after that fateful April 7. When people died, has closed the border with Romania, and Chisinau was completely isolated from the rest of Europe. All these things made by PCRM government. 3. pro-European parties should be aware that there is a serious risk of some public complaints if they betray the pro-European. If AEI get majority government, but the parties prefer to enter into other combinations, not just EU will feel betrayed, but voters in the Republic of Moldova, Romania or in the diaspora. The risk is real protests. Flirting with the idea of "monstrous coalition" can be black swan that will overturn all electoral calculations. Example Romania is alive! 4. A "monstrous coalition" would lock in reality, all efforts Europeanization of Moldova made so far by the EU, including Romania. Such a gesture would give grist to the mill of those who say that Moldova can not receive, even in Eastern Partnership priovilegiat treatment since, after five years of pro-European government, brought to power ... Communist Party. 5. Eastern Partnership, whose only hope now remains only a pro-European coalition in Chisinau can not end so pathetic. He started in May 2009 when, while almost, with its inauguration in Prague Communist Party expel the Romanian ambassador in Chisinau, closing the border with Romania and visa put European citizens. It would be a terrible irony that, five years after the inauguration of the Eastern Partnership, the state only as successful as the political format, you end up just Communist Party returns to power. 6. In Bucharest, when the presidential election is over. Romania should give strong messages clear that European option can not be stained. In 2005, Romanian officials have endorsed the "orange revolution" in his head and blessed Voronin (along with the presidents of Ukraine and Georgia) taking option "European" by the communists. There were no past two years and began to regret publicly that gesture. Romania and its president can not make the same mistake a second time. Tolerating or administer a "monstrous coalition" means to completely discredit foreign policy actor. At that moment, from Eastern Europe, you will hear a huge laugh ...
Read more: http://adevarul.ro/international/europa/rusia-pregateste-contra-maidanul-chisinau-scenariul-agresiv-scenariul-pasnic-1_546db0390d133766a81166db/index.html