Belarus divorcing from Russia

[Hweinlant]

President Lukashenko of Belarus has recently made 180 degree policy change. Belarus is now looking to western direction and even promised to help Ukraine. Russian MPs are mad and accuse Lukashenko of betrayal. Putinist policies of Russia are making their friend list very, very short. Are we heading to Ukraine-like crisis at Belarus or can Russia take this divorce in more civilized manner ?

[alfieb]

Fantastic news.

I don't trust Lukashenko at all. He's a post-soviet commie despot. But any move away from Putin is a good move for the West.

[Jehan]

:eek:
Where did you read this information? Have you some link, i'am very curious?
Westerns country considers Lukashenko as a dictator and whants him to leave the power. How both parts will deal with that?

[Methmatician]

Unless this involves solving the human rights problems in Belarus it ain't great news.

[Siberyak]

And tell us where is Belarus going? Lukashenko and much of his inner circle are still banned from entering the eu

[Empecinado]

Lukashenko is like Franco or Castro, a survivalist, smart and pragmatic statesman who knows how to play his cards without give up the country to any power. Franco theoretically approached to the USA and Western world, but this was done only for the sake of ending with the blockade and get international recognition, in practice he had better relationship with Arab Baazist countries, did not allow USA to use their bases in the Yom Kippur War, kept the country safe from US-founded cultural Marxism and bought uranium to USSR to develop a nuclear program.

[Hweinlant]

:eek:
Where did you read this information? Have you some link, i'am very curious?


http://kommersant.ru/doc/2638726



Westerns country considers Lukashenko as a dictator and whants him to leave the power. How both parts will deal with that?

There is some bargaining to do with Ukrainian crisis.

I'd guess many people at Belarus are pretty scared after Russia annexed Crimea. Why wouldn't they do that to Belarus ?

[Hweinlant]

http://itar-tass.com/en/world/768340



Lukashenko says Belarus is ready to help Ukraine


“I am telling it openly, we have always done everything the Ukrainian president asked us. And we will continue that way,” Lukashenko said.

A Belarusian-Ukrainian television channel will be launched in Belarus as agreed by the two Presidents, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Pyotr Poroshenko of Ukraine, at their meeting on Sunday.

[Zmey Gorynych]

LOOOOL, Chechnya's next and after that Tatarstan and Siberia :D


And tell us where is Belarus going? Lukashenko and much of his inner circle are still banned from entering the eu
I'm not sure whether you doubt Hweinlant's post or disapprove of Lukashenko's choice. If it's the former I can confirm that Lukashenko did change his rethoric in the last couple of months. First of all he refused to critisize Ukraine and Moldova's agreements with the EU saying that each country is free to choose its own path and that Belarus will continue to have good relations with everybody. After that he went ballistic when Russia banned imports of certain goods from Belarus to which Batiko responded with the reistatement of custom inspection with Russia effectively putting an end to the Customs Union. Now he's meeting with Poroshenko, says he'll do anything to help Ukraine (whatever that means).

As for Lukashenko being banned from entering the EU, that can change in a second.

Russia got played big time this year. The Eurasian Union may not come to exist. The whole thing should've started January the 1st. LOOOL

[Siberyak]

LOOOOL, Chechnya's next and after that Tatarstan and Siberia :D


I'm not sure whether you doubt Hweinlant's post or disapprove of Lukashenko's choice. If it's the first I can confirm that Lukashebko did change his rethoric in last couple of months. First of all he refused to critisize Ukraine and Moldova's agreements with the EU saying that each country is free to choose its own path and that Belarus will continue to have good relations with everybody. After that he went ballistic when Russia banned imports of certain goods from Belarus to which Batiko responded with the reistatement of custom inspection with Russia effectively putting an end to the Customs Union. Now he's meeting with Poroshenko says he'll do anything to help Ukraine (whatever that means).

As for Lukashenko being banned from entering the EU, that can change in a second.

Russia got played big time this year. The Eurasian Union may not come to exist. The whole thing should've started January the 1st. LOOOL

His status with the eu won't change unless.

He allows opposition to rally and not be monitored or harassed.

[Zmey Gorynych]

His status with the eu won't change unless.

He allows opposition to rally and not be monitored or harassed.
If he plays the West's game his status will change in a heartbeat.

[Siberyak]

If he plays the West's game his status will change in a heartbeat.

Meaning loosening his grip on power. We shall see. Remember the "west" (if you even know what that means) had saddam hussein as an ally at one time against iran

[Jehan]

If he plays the West's game his status will change in a heartbeat.

If he play the West game, soon or late he will quit the power.

[Zmey Gorynych]

If he play the West game, soon or late he will quit the power.
Eventually he will lose power or simply retire from public life but it wont happen immediately. He's 60 now, if he makes the switch from east to west he'll win the next elections and probably those after that without any kind of problem and by the end of his 6th term he'll be 70+. He didn't assassinate journalists and did not start wars, the west and his people will turn a blind eye to his 20+ years of quasi-dictatorial reign.

[Jehan]

Meaning loosening his grip on power. We shall see. Remember the "west" (if you even know what that means) had saddam hussein as an ally at one time against iran

And where is saddam now?
The west can tell Lukashenko everything he wants to heard. The fact is that he is just a tool use against Russia. When the tool will stop to be usefull, West will drop him and put a "democratic" governement who share the western view instead.

Russians have a lot of defects but they never let one of their ally down without try to help. Its not the case of Western. Lukashenko will probably be disapoint.
But it's a good thing for belarussians people.

[Not a Cop]

President Lukashenko of Belarus has recently made 180 degree policy change. Belarus is now looking to western direction and even promised to help Ukraine. Russian MPs are mad and accuse Lukashenko of betrayal. Putinist policies of Russia are making their friend list very, very short. Are we heading to Ukraine-like crisis at Belarus or can Russia take this divorce in more civilized manner ?

You and me both know what Lukashenko policies are about - not long after he came to power he understood two facts:
1. EU wouldn't like his authorian methods and not long after he will ally with them he will be removed.
2. Russia is way too big and powerfull to be an equal ally for Belarus. Alliance with Russia will mean that he either will be degraded to the level of governor of Belarussian province, or even worser - will be removed.

So there was only way for him - to be neutrall, but due to the fact that both EU and Russia has enough power to infuence internal policies of Belarus he has to side with Russia or EU from time to time.

And he does it well! Economical help from both sides helps Belarussian economy a lot.

Last years were the "Russian" period, now propably the "EU" period comes. Nothing new.

[Zmey Gorynych]

Russians have a lot of defects but they never let one of their ally down without try to help.
Another myth, Serbia and Armenia comes to mind, not to mention the former soviet republics that russians invaded over the years.

[Jehan]

Another myth, Serbia and Armenia comes to mind, not to mention the former soviet republics that russians invaded over the years.

For Serbia, i have no idea.

For Armenia, Russians were ally to Azerbadjan. Like they were ally in both sides they choose to not choose.

[Siberyak]

And where is saddam now?
The west can tell Lukashenko everything he wants to heard. The fact is that he is just a tool use against Russia. When the tool will stop to be usefull, West will drop him and put a "democratic" governement who share the western view instead.

Russians have a lot of defects but they never let one of their ally down without try to help. Its not the case of Western. Lukashenko will probably be disapoint.
But it's a good thing for belarussians people.

That's a fact. remember The usa supported saddam in his war against Iran but when he threatened to trade Oil in Euros instead of dollars that was then end of him. So all this bullshit talk about the west's moral authority should end

http://media.npr.org/dvd/2004/oct/fahrenheit/main_saddam-09f4b02c80793c362fb107213289386a9b806799-s6-c30.jpg

[Hweinlant]

LOOOOL, Chechnya's next and after that Tatarstan and Siberia :D

Russia got played big time this year. The Eurasian Union may not come to exist. The whole thing should've started January the 1st. LOOOL

Yes, the great strategist, chess master and tactical genius has had a great 2014. All Russia's strategic foreign policy initiatives have simply failed. There is one partner to lose before loosing Russian "republics". That's Kazakhstan. I would like to hear your educated guesstimate about '15 developments at that front. Will Kazakhstan re-orient itself towards China as Eurasian Union is nothing more than "carcass of co-operation" ?

[Hweinlant]

You and me both know what Lukashenko policies are about - not long after he came to power he understood two facts:
1. EU wouldn't like his authorian methods and not long after he will ally with them he will be removed.
2. Russia is way too big and powerfull to be an equal ally for Belarus. Alliance with Russia will mean that he either will be degraded to the level of governor of Belarussian province, or even worser - will be removed.


We have pretty aligned understanding here. Lukashenko playing the role of Humpty Dumpty between EU and Russia. This strategy will fail, like it failed for Yanukovych. Lukashenko can play that card only for some time and then he must choose. I think he tries to use Ukraine as stepping stone to co-operation with EU and use EU's Eastern Partnership as his new foreign policy initiative. Basically he will ditch Putin as Putin can not bribe him off anymore.

Apparently there is pretty strong nationalist tendency at Belarus, which spells bad for Russia as nationalist circles at Belarus see Russia as existential threat not only for their state but for their ethnic group. Lukashenko seems to be aligning with these forces, who just a year ago were pushed and kept in marginal. Let's keep in mind that large swathes of Russian Federation are ethnically Belarusian rather than Russian. I'm speaking about Smolensk and thereabouts. They were stolen from Belarusians and gifted to Russia by the bolsheviks, like so many other regions.

[Raven_]

I'd guess many people at Belarus are pretty scared after Russia annexed Crimea. Why wouldn't they do that to Belarus ?

Russia mainly used 'oppressed Russian minority' card in Crimea to instigate local Russians. The exact moment at which Russian minority became seriously oppressed was when Ukrainian parliament showed an intention to change language-related laws. That can not be the case in Belarus as Russian is already the dominant language. Also, Lukaeshnko, as auhoritarian leader, has tools to manage situation quicker than Ukrainian parliament. Furthermore , the starting point, 'bloody overturn of a democratically elected leader' just didn't happen in Belarus, there are no neo-nazis (equivalents of 'banderovtsi' and what not), possibly the epithet that defines the utmost enemy of Russian people, running around.

Lukashenko is simply trying to avoid negative consequence of the Russian financial collapse.

F.ex.
Ruble collapse: Belarus leader Lukashenko calls for halt on trade in Russian rubles (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ruble-collapse-belarus-leader-lukashenko-calls-halt-trade-russian-rubles-1480156)
35.4% of Belarus' exports go to Russia, with 59.3% of its imports coming the other way. It's thought that more than 90% of these transactions are denominated in Russia ruble, which has led to a loss in revenue of $739m over the first 10 months of the year, despite volumes remaining steady.

[Hweinlant]

Russia mainly used 'oppressed Russian minority' card in Crimea to instigate local Russians. The exact moment at which Russian minority became seriously oppressed was when Ukrainian parliament showed an intention to change language-related laws. That can not be the case in Belarus as Russian is already the dominant language. Also, Lukaeshnko, as auhoritarian leader, has tools to manage situation quicker than Ukrainian parliament. Furthermore , the starting point, 'bloody overturn of a democratically elected leader' just didn't happen in Belarus, there are no neo-nazis (equivalents of 'banderovtsi' and what not , , possibly the epithet that defines the utmost enemy of Russian people, running around.


They can use other narratives. Moscow media will spin it 24/7. "Belarus is not a real country", "Belarus was created by communists", "Belarus was always part of Russia", "Minsk is our Jerusalem". You get the point. Maybe they liberate Belarus from evil fascists with proactive strike. .

[Raven_]

They can use other narratives. Moscow media will spin it 24/7. "Belarus is not a real country", "Belarus was created by communists", "Belarus was always part of Russia", "Minsk is our Jerusalem". You get the point. Maybe they liberate Belarus from evil fascists with proactive strike. .

Either there must be some pre-existing strongly expressed sentiment or something big must happen.
Putin probably doesn't want Lukashenko removed as it would be unclear whether Maidan-like protesters would not end up wining. The current turn in Lukashenko's views do not seem to be dictated by people's inspirations. His new pro-EU position may appeal to some groups, obviously, but dealing with one person is easier than with millions of people. Especially when they may hold even more differing views. You said: Lukashenko playing the role of Humpty Dumpty between EU and Russia. This strategy will fail, like it failed for Yanukovych. Lukashenko can play that card only for some time and then he must choose. But Yanukovych was really choosing between appeasing masses vs. some other masses and Putin. On the op of that, Ukraine is in a such situation that neither direction would have guaranteed bright future. Ukraine is asking EU to give her money, but how long will it last? Ukraine is not a role-model situation. Despite masses' aspirations, future is bleak which i find incredibly sad. I just don't believe Lukashenko will jump into the same train. Just like that.

[Raven_]

Oh, and I don't understand why you think Putin would create turmoil specifically in Belarus. There are Russians who decided not to go on vacation to Baltic States out of fear of getting killed this summer :D Instigating clashes between Russians and ethnic pribaltiks would be a much safer move.

[Leto]

Hweinlant, do you have any other interests, besides your hatred toward Russia? I've never seen you posting on other topics, only about something related to Russia (always negative). I'm afraid you are just paranoid.

[Borna]

Keep on dreaming you fucks.
Bear is going to eat you all on the end.

[Raven_]

Hweinlant, do you have any other interests, besides your hatred toward Russia? I've never seen you posting on other topics, only about something related to Russia (always negative). I'm afraid you are just paranoid.

Right, he should join you in countless threads about USA. I am sometimes ashamed that a fellow Eastern Euro is the first one to talk about domestic American issues to a point where you know more than some actual Americans. You're making me feel uneasy.

[Leto]

Right, he should join you in countless threads about USA. I am sometimes ashamed that a fellow Eastern Euro is the first one to talk about domestic American issues to a point where you know more than some actual Americans. You're making me feel uneasy.
I am not your fellow. And most Americans don't mind me discussing their issues. I've never created a hateful or disrespectful thread about America. On the contrary, many of them agree with me and give me thumbs up.

[Borna]

Russophobia reached critical level on this site. It is so heated up to a point that people do not write anything on their own sections nor topics related to their own people, but feel happiness and joy when speaking some shitty things about Russia. What is even more sad is that many of those people are Slavs.

I understand inferior nations who got bullied by a bear for a long time, they see their opportunity to give their miserable contribution to potential Russian demise. Those are people with serious inferiority complex and they require psychiatrists. What sickens me most are Slavs who advocate Western "Drang nach Osten". Those people gave up their complete history and blood for the handfull of dollars.

They do not realize that if Russia is going down, everyone will go down with her.

[Not a Cop]

Russia mainly used 'oppressed Russian minority' card in Crimea to instigate local Russians. The exact moment at which Russian minority became seriously oppressed was when Ukrainian parliament showed an intention to change language-related laws. That can not be the case in Belarus as Russian is already the dominant language. Also, Lukaeshnko, as auhoritarian leader, has tools to manage situation quicker than Ukrainian parliament. Furthermore , the starting point, 'bloody overturn of a democratically elected leader' just didn't happen in Belarus, there are no neo-nazis (equivalents of 'banderovtsi' and what not), possibly the epithet that defines the utmost enemy of Russian people, running around.

Lukashenko is simply trying to avoid negative consequence of the Russian financial collapse.

F.ex.
Ruble collapse: Belarus leader Lukashenko calls for halt on trade in Russian rubles (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ruble-collapse-belarus-leader-lukashenko-calls-halt-trade-russian-rubles-1480156)
35.4% of Belarus' exports go to Russia, with 59.3% of its imports coming the other way. It's thought that more than 90% of these transactions are denominated in Russia ruble, which has led to a loss in revenue of $739m over the first 10 months of the year, despite volumes remaining steady.

Actually Belarus as a sovereign nation is in much tricker sitiation than Ukraine is.

Lets imagine this scenario - Lukashenko distances from Russia as much as possible. Something happens inside the country (economical crisis for example) and population starts to blame the old dictator. Either democratical or nationalist powers or both at the same time decide that they are powerfull enough to make a revolution and remove Lukashenko.

People are on streets, countless meetings, protests etc. Lukashenko understands that his days are counted and not much else he can do.

And than as a rabbit from out magician hat the Union State (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State) of Russia and Belarus appears. Not much people know, but Russians and Belarussians already live in some sort of federation, in few days Lukashenko trades with Russia for better conditions for himself. Few hours agfter signing of all nedeed documents Pskov division enters Belarus, and everything is over in a couple of days.

Pretty possible scenario IMO.

[Borna]

Actually Belarus as a sovereign nation is in much tricker sitiation than Ukraine are.

Lets imagine this scenario - Lukashenko distances from Russia as much as possible. Something happens inside the country (economical crisis for example) and population starts to blame the old dictator. Either democratical or nationalist powers or both at the same time decide that they are powerfull enough to make a revolution and remove Lukashenko.

People are on streets, countless meetings, protests etc. Lukashenko understands that his days are counted and not much else he can do.

And than as a rabbit from out magician hat the Union State (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State) of Russia and Belarus appears. Not much people know, but Russians and Belarussians already live in some sort of federation, in few days Lukashenko trades with Russia for better conditions for himself. Few hours agfter signing of all nedeed documents Pskov division enters Belarus, and everything is over in a couple of days.

Pretty possible scenario IMO.


How strong are ties with Belarusian people with Russia ? I mean do people of Belarus feel Russia as their older brother, and do they feel Russia as their country as well ?

[Raven_]

Not a Cop, Belarus and Russia have already signed a treaty that allows Russia to participate in domestic Belarusian conflicts sometime in the past.

[Not a Cop]

Not a Cop, Belarus and Russia have already signed a treaty that allows Russia to participate in domestic Belarusian conflicts sometime in the past.

Haven't read of that, but sounds possible. Actually many people think that Union state was an attempt of Lukashenko to come to power in Russia, keeping in mind a weak Eltsin in end of 90-s it sounds pretty possible, at start of this project it was mainly Lukashenko, who pushed it.



How strong are ties with Belarusian people with Russia ? I mean do people of Belarus feel Russia as their older brother, and do they feel Russia as their country as well ?

I don't know much about Belarussians, only thing i can say that anti-russians rhetoric is not a base of Belarussian nationalists unlike of Banderovtsi movement.

Also studies showed that about 90% of Belarussians use russian language in everyday life, so their culture isn't much different from mainstream Russian one.

[La Misse]

:))

[Jehan]

I take a look on wikipedia. It seems that belarussian nationalist are pro western and close to polish.
Also 80% of the population are belarussians, the situation is very different than in Crimea. Russian army will not take Belarussia without shoot a fire. And we can bet that the guerilla/nationalist movement will have an active help from the other country.

[glass]

Lukashenko is just trying to milk cow (Russia). But he would never trade alliance with Russia for alliance with EU/US. Russia is much more reliable partner for him himself and his country. Also russians historicaly prefer deal with what they have/given, unlike west which is always trying to change and shape countries in their own interests.

[Linebacker]

It was to be expected.Nobody wants to stay on or near a sinking ship.A smart person would want to take a lifeboat.

[Loki]

President Lukashenko of Belarus has recently made 180 degree policy change. Belarus is now looking to western direction and even promised to help Ukraine. Russian MPs are mad and accuse Lukashenko of betrayal. Putinist policies of Russia are making their friend list very, very short. Are we heading to Ukraine-like crisis at Belarus or can Russia take this divorce in more civilized manner ?

Of course, this has got to be a Hweinlant thread. Fellas, don't take this guy's posts seriously. He's an obsessive Russia-hater. I'm surprised I haven't banned him yet. But he isn't breaking forum rules.

[Zmey Gorynych]

Yes, the great strategist, chess master and tactical genius has had a great 2014. All Russia's strategic foreign policy initiatives have simply failed. There is one partner to lose before loosing Russian "republics". That's Kazakhstan. I would like to hear your educated guesstimate about '15 developments at that front. Will Kazakhstan re-orient itself towards China as Eurasian Union is nothing more than "carcass of co-operation" ?
Kazakhstan has already intensified its partnership with China, the kazakhs are the regions largest oil suppliers to China and the chinese have bought one of the largest oil companies in Kazakhstan, there's also the pipeline built by the chinese which takes kazakh oil to China's border meaning the end of the russian infrastructural monopoly in the country. That's all good news for Kazakh economy however they can not afford to completely fall into China's hands. Regardless of what happens to Russia (whether it remains an independent player or becomes the West's plaything) Kazakhstan must balance their growing links with China with their relationship with the partner in the west (whoever it may be). I don't think 15 will bring drastic changes in Kazakhstan's foreign policy. A lot will depend on how fast things develop in Russia. If the kazakhs are smart they can profit greatly from Putin's demise and become a true central asian leader and increase their energy exports in Asia at the expense of Russia.

[LightHouse89]

Plutocratic America vs Plutocratic Russia? Which one is the best? Neither.

[glass]

little advice for all strategists who are sharing their expectations of post-Putin or post-russian world
Do not count your chickens before they hatch :rolleyes:

[Rugevit]

We have pretty aligned understanding here. Lukashenko playing the role of Humpty Dumpty between EU and Russia. This strategy will fail, like it failed for Yanukovych. Lukashenko can play that card only for some time and then he must choose. I think he tries to use Ukraine as stepping stone to co-operation with EU and use EU's Eastern Partnership as his new foreign policy initiative. Basically he will ditch Putin as Putin can not bribe him off anymore.


Lukashenko has been doing this for the last 15 years or so. He has been accredited for having political instincts, even by his political enemies. Yanukovich was an amateur in comparison to Lukashenko.



Apparently there is pretty strong nationalist tendency at Belarus, which spells bad for Russia as nationalist circles at Belarus see Russia as existential threat not only for their state but for their ethnic group. Lukashenko seems to be aligning with these forces, who just a year ago were pushed and kept in marginal. Let's keep in mind that large swathes of Russian Federation are ethnically Belarusian rather than Russian. I'm speaking about Smolensk and thereabouts. They were stolen from Belarusians and gifted to Russia by the bolsheviks, like so many other regions.



TUT.BY (www.tut.by) is considered the most popular information portal in Belarus with about 2 million visitors daily. The majority of visitors are residents of Belarus. This is not an opposition or anti-government on portal. There was a poll on the portal recently : TUT.BY -- Poll (http://www.tut.by/poll/2985)

If a referendum was held on Belarus entering the Eurasian Economic Union [union with Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries] , how would you vote?

Results:

For - 20.12% (1581 votes)
Against - 78.98% (6207)
Your answer - 0.90 (71)



The independent institute of socio-economic & political study (IISEPS) based in Vilnius ran a survey 6 months ago finding around 55% of Belarusians were against union with Russia, while 20-24% for the union. The rest were undecided. So similar results with small numbers supporting the union with Russia as in the poll on TUT.BY. Surveys of this institute are most trusted by many analysts. The opinion of Belarusians about the EU has been changing, since Belarusian began to travel more around Europe. Today, Belarusians receive more Schengen visa per capita than residents of any other country. People are viewing EU positively now.

The sentiments towards union with Russia is similar among people of Kazakhstan. There would not be such a union if referendums were held in Belarus and Kazakhstan. Friends of Russia are Nazarbayev and Lukashenko, who will not be in power forever. The Belarusian oppositions stated that last 3 presidential elections were rigged and Lukashenko government is illegitimate,so are the agreements between Belarus and Russia.

----

As for Lukashenko divorcing Russia is media nonsense. Relations between Belarus and Russia over trade were far worse in the past. The difference this time is conflict in Ukraine. Belarus cannot divorce Russia while relying on the Russian market on which Belarus sells most of her manufactured goods receiving cheap energy sources from Russia. The export to Russia was 49% of total export of Belarus last year. Belarus sells manufactured goods to Russia, while oil-made products, chemicals and fertilisers are sold to EU and other countries. A lot of people are employed in manufacturing industry. Kazakhstan is in a better position than Belarus in this regard.

Both Lukashenko and Nazarbayev visited Ukraine meeting Poroshenko in Kiev in the light of new negotiations between rebels in south-eastern Ukraine and Kiev authorities. They probably met Poroshenko on request of Kremlin. Lukashenko has been playing friendly to Ukraine ever since the conflict began in Ukraine, which disappointed some nationalists in Russia. Ukraine is the 2nd largest trading partner of Belarus after Russia, which Lukashenko does not want to loose. Lukashenko knows very well he will be swept from the government if the Belarusian economy fails completely. Lukashenko came to power in the 90s when the economy of Belarus was failing and people were taking to the streets.

[Rugevit]

A country can only be a vassal or an enemy of Russia. There is no other option. Russia has no friends and it will never have friends. I mean true friends and dictators and puppets relying on Kremlin's support.

[Borna]

A country can only be a vassal or an enemy of Russia. There is no other option. Russia has no friends and it will never have friends. I mean true friends and dictators and puppets relying on Kremlin's support.

On the other hand you can be fully recognized ally and friend with USA, with a equal position, rid of their influence in your country, economically supported, you are guaranteed have complete independence, phones, computers and emails of your country and high ranking politicians never gonna be wired or similar. Of course it is guaranteed that once you done your work, you won't be bombed, hunted and killed like an animal. Such a pretty democratic paradise USA is, both to her and her allies.

[Loki]

I hope everyone realises this is a troll thread created by a troll.

[glass]

For - 20.12% (1581 votes)
Against - 78.98% (6207)
Your answer - 0.90 (71)
2m visitors and less than 10k votes? mmmkay

The independent institute based in Vilnius
please...
this sounds like virgin porn star

Look at recent elections in Moldavia. "Pro-european" politicians in power, one "pro-russian" party banned right before elections, every second moldovan working abroad is in Russia, yet only 5 voting stations abroad out of 125 were opened in Russia. Despite all this, so called pro-european parties got only 45% votes. Why would Belarus have worse attitude towards Russia. Total propaganda and/or coup is only way make to people anti-russian

[Shepherd]

Last thing Id expect from Belarus

[Illancha]

Lukashenko is a funny character. Every time he's mentioned I re-watch this video (sure he's not saying it to compliment :laugh:):


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vJj2OAJ88g

Now there's a man I can see eye-to-eye with.


I hope everyone realises this is a troll thread created by a troll.
Are you calling someone a troll because you disagree with him on politics?

[Loki]

Are you calling someone a troll because you disagree with him on politics?

No, never have.

[Unome]

A wise decision from Lukashenko… may Belarus continue to prosper. :thumb001:

[Zmey Gorynych]

Look at recent elections in Moldavia. "Pro-european" politicians in power, one "pro-russian" party banned right before elections, every second moldovan working abroad is in Russia, yet only 5 voting stations abroad out of 125 were opened in Russia. Despite all this, so called pro-european parties got only 45% votes. Why would Belarus have worse attitude towards Russia. Total propaganda and/or coup is only way make to people anti-russian
You think the result would've been different if that party wasn't banned? What do you know about the circumstances that led to the ban? My guess is whatever the russian media fed you on the tele. Do you know that a month before the elections your Lavrov talked about that party being banned? What is his business talking about the elections in another country and more importantly how did he knew what's going to happen before it happened.

That was the plan all along, the party was created over night with russian money and who do they put in charge? A "businessman" with shady connections in Russia, a high end criminal with no serious education. The man was a clown who threw money left and right. His purpose was to take votes from the Communist Party which changed allegiances in the last year. Once he accomplished that his adventure was over, he was to return to Russia. He said so himself in leaked videos, he was so dumb as to talk to undercover journalists about what he was set to do in Moldova, which speaks to the dumbness of russians who trusted this mission to such a complete moron.

The party was banned because it has been proved in court that it was sponsored from abroad, which is contrary to the electoral law. This ban favoured the Socialist Party (the truly serious pro-russian party) which picked up whatever votes the banned party would've taken, strenghening the left's result. If the percentage of the left-wing would've been divided between 3 parties instead of 2 they would've taken less after the redistribution, hence fewer seats in the parliament.

The pro-euopean parties took 45% but left-wing parties took even less (only 38%), so what are you trying to say exactly? The reduction of the stations in Russia was not democratic but it was a smart move. Anyway those from Russia voted massively for a party that did not reach the threshold. By the way the leader (Shelin) of this party was recently criticized by russian officials for no withdrawing from the race as he was told to do and denied entry in Russia because of this.

These elections were a big fuck up for Russia, they planned big but alot went wrong for them. In the end they have only 20% percent of loyal dogs in the parliament because the communists have recently made a statement that they will support the pro-european parties.

[Loki]

President Lukashenko of Belarus has recently made 180 degree policy change. Belarus is now looking to western direction and even promised to help Ukraine. Russian MPs are mad and accuse Lukashenko of betrayal. Putinist policies of Russia are making their friend list very, very short. Are we heading to Ukraine-like crisis at Belarus or can Russia take this divorce in more civilized manner ?

Belarus is an independent country, it can do whatever it wants. It's not "married" to Russia. It's a dictatorship, whereas Russia is a democracy.

[Rugevit]

2m visitors and less than 10k votes? mmmkay


People visit different sections of the portal.



please...
this sounds like virgin porn star

Look at recent elections in Moldavia. "Pro-european" politicians in power, one "pro-russian" party banned right before elections, every second moldovan working abroad is in Russia, yet only 5 voting stations abroad out of 125 were opened in Russia. Despite all this, so called pro-european parties got only 45% votes. Why would Belarus have worse attitude towards Russia. Total propaganda and/or coup is only way make to people anti-russian

You don't know anything about Belarus other than what you read in Russian media. If you doubt the survey, then see the the results of the poll on the portal.

[Rugevit]

Loki!

I appreciate your rep. I always wanted to say you and now it seems like a good time: you are a slightly better version of RussiaPrussia when it comes to matters on Russia. ;) Russia never had and it will never have friends, such is the country. Russians have a common saying : the only friend of Russia is her army and fleet.

[Loki]

Loki!

I appreciate your negative rep. I always wanted to say you and now it seems like a good time: you are a slightly better version of RussiaPrussia when it comes to matters on Russia. ;) Russia never had and it will never have friends, such is the country. Russians have a common saying : the only friend of Russia is her army and fleet.

Nothing wrong with RussiaPrussia, I like his posts :)

He hasn't been posting much lately, though.

[Rugevit]

Nothing wrong with RussiaPrussia, I like his posts :)

He hasn't been posting much lately, though.

He was entertaining! :)

[glass]

These elections were a big fuck up for Russia, they planned big but alot went wrong for them. In the end they have only 20% percent of loyal dogs in the parliament because the communists have recently made a statement that they will support the pro-european parties.
This elections proved that people in soviet states do not tend to link incompetence of their politicians and overall bad situation in economy with Russia. Neither independant NGOs nor independants instutites can change that. Pre-coup Ukraine had 50/50, Moldova showed (despite all) 45/38. From my experience with belarussians, they are far more satisfied with Lukashenko than ukrainians with their president(s). So any survey that shows 20% supporters of union with Russia is 100% bullshit. This numbers at least 60% if not more.

Those independant institutes survey only tiny "right" minority then call it opinion of belarussian people:rolleyes:



You don't know anything about Belarus other than what you read in Russian media. If you doubt the survey, then see the the results of the poll on the portal.
Please...
There are many belarussians in Moscow, one my friend visits Belarus ever 2-3 months (business matters). She is very talkative...

People visit different sections of the portal.

Yes, out 2m visitors there was very tiny minority of people who decided to show their disregard with Russia
mmmkay :rolleyes:
A sinlge complaining person is usualy louder then 10 satisfied ones

[ЛыSSый]

Belarus divorcing from Russia only in your wet sprotastanian rusophobic dreams. And let me remind to you: president of Belarus bats'ka Lukashenko actually hohol, so you even can't imagine what things he wants and gets soon in real.

[Unome]

Homogeneous societies (Belarus, although China/Chinese are the best example) habitually fall under autocracy because homogeneity is closer to family kin-selection and so citizens of such a country automatically trust their leader as a child will trust his/her father/mother.

[Zmey Gorynych]

This elections proved that people in soviet states do not tend to link incompetence of their politicians and overall bad situation in economy with Russia. Neither independant NGOs nor independants instutites can change that. Pre-coup Ukraine had 50/50, Moldova showed (despite all) 45/38. From my experience with belarussians, they are far more satisfied with Lukashenko than ukrainians with their president(s). So any survey that shows 20% supporters of union with Russia is 100% bullshit. This numbers at least 60% if not more.

Those independant institutes survey only tiny "right" minority then call it opinion of belarussian people:rolleyes:
I take it you think 45/38 (which ultimately turned out to be 63/20) is a good result for Russia. It's actually very bad, anything but a pro-russian government in Moldova is bad news for Russia. Had the left-wing won they would've federalized the country and transnistrian political figures would've taken control. Moldova could've been used against Ukraine, now that possibility is gone.

You used "despite all" a second time. I'm curious to know how many more people do you think would've voted if more voting stations were allowed in Russia? I'm ready to bet that very few, in any case not enough to change the outcome of the election.

Ukraine may have been divided before the maidan but after the november elections pro-russian parties took what 10%? It's quite clear where Ukraine and Moldova is heading. I'm not sure how reliable that opinion poll regarding Belarus is but as you said belarusians are far more satisfied with Lukashenko than ukrainians were with their presidents and if the president tells them to look west that's what they'll do. Right now Lukashenko is making a U-turn, probably someone is whispering in his ear, he may know something (things to come) and he's preparing the ground. Belarus wont be turned like Ukraine, there will be no miadan or coup d'etat, everything will be done softely.

[glass]

I take it you think 45/38 (which ultimately turned out to be 63/20) is a good result for Russia.
i am not talking about what is good for Russia. Actualy 100/0 would be best for Russia, because i want my country break from all those Moldavias, Ukraines and alike. I am for russian national state. I am glad to see any anti-russian sentiments as it works best for Russia in long term.
I just tell you that 38% voted for union with Russia. Ploticians are always ready to prostitute especialy in countries like Moldavia, Bulgaria and alike. But it does not change simple fact that 38% voted so called eurasian union.

You used "despite all" a second time. I'm curious to know how many more people do you think would've voted if more voting stations were allowed in Russia? I'm ready to bet that very few, in any case not enough to change the outcome of the election.
you mentioned party that did not make into parliament. If more people voted they could get in, so "pro-european" parties would have less share there.


Ukraine may have been divided before the maidan but after the november elections pro-russian parties took what 10%?
If you are being bombarded with anti-russian propaganda you would eventualy believe it. Nothing really special. Because all russian media sources were banned just right after coup.

[Zmey Gorynych]

Actualy 100/0 would be best for Russia, because i want my country break from all those Moldavias, Ukraines and alike. I am for russian national state. I am glad to see any anti-russian sentiments as it works best for Russia in long term
I hope you become president one day, sooner rather than later.

[Hweinlant]

Right now Lukashenko is making a U-turn, probably someone is whispering in his ear, he may know something (things to come) and he's preparing the ground. Belarus wont be turned like Ukraine, there will be no miadan or coup d'etat, everything will be done softely.

I can imagine many small voices whispering to his ear, although none is really required for his U-turn. Belarus beasically exports only to Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are in recession due their conflict. If positive prognosis for Russian economy is -5% and negative around -15/20% drop in GDP, Lukashenko seriously needs to seek better relations with west. Economical base of Belarus will melt with disappearance of their export markets. Situation in the ground is already pretty darn serious as Central Bank hiked interest rate to 26% yesterday and capital controls are put in effect. When the storm hits Russian markets with full force in early '15, there will be mass unemployment, riots and whole shebang. Lukashenko must distance himself as far as possible from the looming chaos at Russia.

[igo112]

...

[Jehan]

So finally nothing happen. Belarus is still an ally of russia.


Maybe it's more the belarussian population who dislike more and more russia?