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wvwvw
01-05-2015, 06:00 AM
How Vladimir Putin Upset NATO’s Strategy
By Thierry Meyssan
Voltairenet.org
January 5, 2015

At the annual summit on security organized by the Bertelsmann Foundation and NATO in Munich in 2007, President Vladimir Putin had stressed that the interest of Western Europeans was not only overseas but also and especially with Russia. Since then, he has continued to try to build economic relations, including the construction of the North Stream pipeline under the leadership of former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. For its part, the United States has done everything to prevent this rapprochement, including the organization of the Kiev coup and the South Stream pipeline sabotage.

According to the Atlanticist press, Russia would have been severely impacted by the unilateral “sanctions” – in reality acts of economic war – imposed on the occasion of the annexation of Crimea to the Federation or of the destruction of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing and by lower oil prices. The ruble has lost 40% of its value, wasted investments in the South Stream gas pipeline cost $ 4.5 billion and the food embargo has cost $ 8.7 billion. The Atlanticist media assures us that Russia is now definitely ruined and isolated politically.

The Atlanticist press however is at an impasse concerning the consequences of this economic war in the European Union. Besides the ban on food exports which is likely to destroy whole sections of its agriculture, the renunciation of South Stream will weigh very seriously on the future of the Union by increasing the price of energy.

It seems that the unilateral “sanctions” have had the unintended consequence of deflating oil prices. Indeed, this began on June 20, but deviation from usual variations began only at the end of July, at the time of the first economic “sanctions”. Oil prices having no relation to the law of supply and demand, but as with any speculative market, with the volume of speculative capital, the moving of Russian capital following the announcement of sanctions accelerated the process. Initially the fall in oil prices was attributed to an effort by Saudi Arabia to stop US investments in shale gas and non-conventional oil but, at the meeting of OPEC it turned out that the Saudis were probably not the cause. Moreover, it seemed impossible that Saudi Arabia would be speculating against its United States sovereign.

Whatever the case may be, Russia surprised Washington by upsetting the diplomatic chess board: Vladimir Putin visited Turkey, a NATO member state, just after US Vice-President Joe Biden, to conclude huge economic agreements. Not only do these bypass the Alliance’s unilateral sanctions, but they deeply disrupt them.

Turkey today is a country poised to become a terrible dictatorship. According to the State Department -though complacent vis-à-vis a member of NATO – the internet is censored; the government has abused its power by stopping corruption investigations conducted against its members and their families; it has punished the police and the judiciary that led these investigations; minorities have no rights, except the three designated minorities in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne; the Erdoğan government is holding hundreds of political prisoners (mainly senior officers guilty of having contacted the Chinese Army, opposition politicians, journalists and lawyers); torture is widespread, arbitrary detention and extrajudicial killings are legion.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg89nRrE8QU
President Erdoğan has built the world’s largest palace. He did it in a natural park, while the courts had forbidden him to do so. It cost taxpayers $ 615 million.

The criminal drifting of the Erdogan administration has become a major concern within NATO. All the more since Turkey is proving to become also a reluctant ally. Thus, it continues to help jihadists in their fight against the Kurdish people (though very predominantly Sunni) instead of actively joining the United States’ coalition against the Islamic Emirate. This is why Vice President Joe Biden visited Ankara on November 22nd , manifestly to threaten President Erdoğan if he did not march to US orders.

However, on December 1st, Putin also went to Ankara. Distinguishing between economic and political issues, he had a long prepared offer: an unprecedented economic alliance between the two nations. Understanding that this unexpected offer was his only way out in relation to Washington, President Erdoğan signed all the documents that had been written by the Russians. He accepted the strengthening of the submarine pipeline linking his country to Russia via the Black Sea; he bought Russian gas at a good price and even civilian nuclear power plants to power his industry; he delivered his agricultural products to Russia despite the embargo by all other Atlantic States; etc.

For NATO, the Turkish problem is turning into a nightmare.

Vladimir Putin certainly has not changed his mind about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He is a petty criminal who joined the Muslim Brotherhood, was propelled to power with the help of the CIA, and he now behaves like a true mafia boss. But the Russian president is used to dealing with oligarchs or heads of state in Central Asia that are no better. He himself arrived at the Kremlin by infiltrating the circles of Boris Yeltsin and Berezovsky.

For his part, Erdoğan knows he owes his power to NATO, and now it is taking him to task. He has no problem doing the splits: political ally to Washington and economic ally to Moscow. He knows that no State has ever gotten out of the Alliance, but he imagines he can stay in power via this double game.

Now let us observe the strategy of Vladimir Putin.

The power of the United States resides both in its currency, which they impose on the rest of the world through the control of the oil market, and on its army.

NATO has just launched an economic war against Russia. For the purposes of propaganda, it masks its attacks under the term “sanctions”. However, sanctions would assume an indictment, a trial and a verdict. Not in this case. The most serious “sanctions” had even been imposed after the destruction of a civilian aircraft in Ukraine, when in all probability it was shot down by the new authorities in Kiev.

In response, Vladimir Putin first leaned away from the countries of Western Europe and towards the Far East by signing the largest contract in history with his Chinese partners. Then he used Turkey against NATO to circumvent Western business “sanctions”. Whether with China or with Turkey, Russia sells energy in local currency or barter, never in dollars.

Russian experts have calculated that Washington would act if oil prices remained below 60 dollars a barrel for more than six months. Two months ago, the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira S. Nabiullina, testified before the Duma that she was ready for this scenario, the institution holding sufficient reserves.

Therefore, if for the moment Russia is seriously affected by the NATO economic attack, the situation could be reversed in six months. To maintain its domination over the world, Washington would then be forced to intervene to drive up oil prices. But in the meantime, this war will have sunk the European Union and NATO, while Russia will have reoriented its economy towards its Chinese ally.

Ultimately, Russia is acting here as it has always done. Formerly, she practiced the “strategy of scorched earth” when Napoleon’s France or the Germany of Adolf Hitler invaded. It destroyed its own resources instead of leaving them to enemy troops and kept retreating to the East. Then it surged back against invaders exhausted by their overly prolonged penetration.

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Prisoner Of Ice
01-05-2015, 06:14 AM
Like I said when this started it's impossible to embargo russia. May as well declare an embargo on yourself instead, it has the same effect.

Anglojew
01-05-2015, 08:59 AM
A very fascinating viewpoint.

The sanctions were launched because of Crimean secession not because of the plane though. Russia had previously invaded Georgia also and is viewed by many as a regional bully (I personally am pro-Russian but the article is obviously biased).

BeerBaron
01-05-2015, 09:08 AM
The deflation of oil prices was not "unintended" it was deliberate.

OPEC could decrease production, but under pressure from the US and Saudis they have kept production high, meaning they are doing it on purpose specifically to hurt Russia.

Sarmatian
01-05-2015, 09:27 AM
Like I said when this started it's impossible to embargo russia. May as well declare an embargo on yourself instead, it has the same effect.

This begs the question: are people in US government really that dumb or delusional? Can they understand the harder you push the more united and aggressive Russians will be?

Sarmatian
01-05-2015, 09:28 AM
The deflation of oil prices was not "unintended" it was deliberate.

OPEC could decrease production, but under pressure from the US and Saudis they have kept production high, meaning they are doing it on purpose specifically to hurt Russia.

Isn't it obvious they will destroy US shale oil production before leaving a dent on Russian oil industry?

Prisoner Of Ice
01-05-2015, 09:33 AM
This begs the question: are people in US government really that dumb or delusional?

Yes, Obama is incredibly stupid and the whole cabinet is full of cronyism hires of people who have no qualifications of any kind.



Can they understand the harder you push the more united and aggressive Russians will be?

Since Russia is a big exporter of many resources and US and Europe are largely disarmed or outdated, this is just hard for me to credit. If this was 1990, they couldpush on Russia a bit. Now we have 1990 tech and 1930s economy. It is just some fanciful delusions of later day Roman emperors. If it makes any difference, I don't think American people have any enmity to russia. Most don't know where crimea is let alone care.

Sarmatian
01-05-2015, 09:48 AM
Yes, Obama is incredibly stupid and the whole cabinet is full of cronyism hires of people who have no qualifications of any kind.

Since Russia is a big exporter of many resources and US and Europe are largely disarmed or outdated, this is just hard for me to credit. If this was 1990, they couldpush on Russia a bit. Now we have 1990 tech and 1930s economy. It is just some fanciful delusions of later day Roman emperors. If it makes any difference, I don't think American people have any enmity to russia. Most don't know where crimea is let alone care.

It's like if there are two different Americas: one is a normal country with common people living their everyday lives and minding their own business and another is 'elitist' America, the one generating foreign policy of meddling in other's backyards and dragging the rest into another war for their own personal gain. It makes me wonder when will the former true America wake up and give a chop to that latter elitist garbage?

BeerBaron
01-05-2015, 09:57 AM
Isn't it obvious they will destroy US shale oil production before leaving a dent on Russian oil industry?

Fracking in the US has gone down, and the oil price drop has lowered the Canadian dollar because of oil shale.

HOWEVER, the Russian economy is much weaker, the currency is even weaker than that, the oil prices have hurt Russia the most, they have made a MASSIVE dent in Russia.

The Russians have already come to the table, the most recent being the prisoner exchange and a lowering in military activity in Ukraine.

So, yes it will hurt the US and Canada a bit, but it IS devastating the Russian economy and the currency.

I know there is a lot of popular support for Russia on this forum, but the fact is the US is winning by bleeding them to death.

Methmatician
01-05-2015, 10:05 AM
This begs the question: are people in US government really that dumb or delusional? Can they understand the harder you push the more united and aggressive Russians will be?
Aggressive? Didn't Russia recently start giving Ukraine free or cheap gas after the the value of the ruble crashed?

Sarmatian
01-05-2015, 10:16 AM
Fracking in the US has gone down, and the oil price drop has lowered the Canadian dollar because of oil shale.

HOWEVER, the Russian economy is much weaker, the currency is even weaker than that, the oil prices have hurt Russia the most, they have made a MASSIVE dent in Russia.

The Russians have already come to the table, the most recent being the prisoner exchange and a lowering in military activity in Ukraine.

So, yes it will hurt the US and Canada a bit, but it IS devastating the Russian economy and the currency.

I know there is a lot of popular support for Russia on this forum, but the fact is the US is winning by bleeding them to death.

You shouldn't listen to American media, it's not good for people's sanity.

I just want to remind you that Russia is the only economy in the world capable to sustain nuclear and space programs simultaneously while being totally isolated. All that is needed is to manage available resources effectively and US has done Russia a huge favor in creating incentive for restructuration of this management. Russia can produce everything it's need on its own and cutting down external supplies will serve nothing but boosting Russia's internal production. Sure there will be period of initial difficulties but give it a couple of years at most and you'll see Russia only coming better and more independent than ever.

wvwvw
01-05-2015, 05:26 PM
By Raúl Ilargi Meijer's
The Automatic Earth

Washington is well-aware that a comprehensive deal with Iran cannot be reached without Russia’s help. That would be the Obama administration’s sole – and I repeat – sole foreign policy success. A return to the “Bomb Iran” hysteria would only suit the proverbial usual (neo-con) suspects. Still, by no accident, both Iran and Russia are now subject to Western sanctions. No matter how it was engineered, the fact that stands is that the current financial/strategic oil price collapse is a direct attack against (who else?) Iran and Russia. [..]

Russia’s government debt totals only 13.4% of its GDP. Its budget deficit in relation to GDP is only 0.5%. If we assume a US GDP of $16.8 trillion (the figure for 2013), the US budget deficit totals 4% of GDP, versus 0.5% for Russia. The Fed is essentially a private corporation owned by regional US private banks, although it passes itself off as a state institution.
US publicly held debt is equal to a whopping 74% of GDP in fiscal year 2014. Russia’s is only 13.4%.

The declaration of economic war by the US and EU on Russia – via the run on the ruble and the oil derivative attack – was essentially a derivatives racket. Derivatives – in theory – may be multiplied to infinity. Derivative operators attacked both the ruble and oil prices in order to destroy the Russian economy. The problem is, the Russian economy is more soundly financed than America’s. [..]

Moscow’s key mistake was to allow Russia’s domestic industry to be financed by external, dollar-denominated debt. Talk about a monster debt trap which can be easily manipulated by the West. The first step for Moscow should be to closely supervise its banks. Russian companies should borrow domestically and move to sell their assets abroad. Moscow should also consider implementing a system of currency controls so the basic interest rate can be brought down quickly.[..]

Russia does not need to import any raw materials. Russia can easily reverse-engineer virtually any imported technology if it needs to. Most of all, Russia can generate — from the sale of raw materials – enough credit in US dollars or euros.[..]

Replacing imports with domestic Russian manufacturing makes total sense. There will be an inevitable “adjustment” phase – but that won’t take long. German car manufacturers, for instance, can no longer sell their cars in Russia due to the ruble’s decline. This means they will have to relocate their factories to Russia. If they don’t, Asia – from South Korea to China — will blow them out of the market.

The EU’s declaration of economic war against Russia makes no sense whatsoever. Russia controls, directly or indirectly, most of the oil and natural gas between Russia and China: roughly 25% of the world’s supply. The Middle East is bound to remain a mess. Africa is unstable. The EU is doing everything it can to cut itself off from its most stable supply of hydrocarbons, prompting Moscow to redirect energy to China and the rest of Asia. What a gift for Beijing [..]

Now imagine Russia and China jointly investing in a new gold, oil and natural resource-backed monetary union as a crucial alternative to the failed debt “democracy” model pushed by the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street, the Western central bank cartel, and neoliberal politicians. They would be showing the Global South that financing prosperity and improved standards of living by saddling future generations with debt was never meant to work in the first place. Until then, a storm will be threatening our very lives – today and tomorrow.

Escobar is nowhere near right on all accounts, but he has some good points. The US enters this self-fabricated and self-desired ‘battle’ with a huge debt disadvantage. However, it holds the reserve currency, and stories about the demise of the petrodollar are way premature. That petrodollar rules well over 90% of all international trade, and it’s going to take a lot of time before that changes in a substantial way.

But countries like Russia and China have plenty revenue coming in in dollars, plus they have huge dollar reserves. It’s not a winnable fight for the power behind the power in Washington, but they’ll fight anyway, partly because that’s all they want and understand, and partly because they won’t do the actual fighting. The way we’ve set up our societies assures the worst possible people rise to the top. That’s just the way it is. And the way we are.

Still, America is never going to control the entire world. And any attempt to achieve that goal will take it further away from it. But a lot of people will be killed in that doomed attempt. And down the line the fighting will go on until there are so few people left, and so little organization, that all that remains is communities of a scale people can actually comprehend. That seems to be the only possible outcome as long as we allow for the psychopaths among us to decide who gets to have their fingers on the nuclear buttons.