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View Full Version : Euro 'will be dead in five years'



Treffie
06-07-2010, 01:30 PM
The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph

The single currency is in its death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the survey – the first major wide-ranging litmus test of economic opinion in the City since the election. The findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.

Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided. The finding is only one of a number of remarkable conclusions, including that:

• The economy will grow by well over a percentage point less next year than the Budget predicted in March.

• The Government will borrow almost £10bn less next year than the Treasury previously forecast, despite this weaker growth.

• Just as many economists think the Bank of England will not raise rates until 2012 or later as think it will lift borrowing costs this year.

But the conclusion on the euro is perhaps the most remarkable finding. A year ago or less, few within the City would have confidently predicted the currency's demise. But the travails of Greece, Spain and Portugal in recent weeks, plus German Chancellor Angela Merkel's acknowledgement that the currency is facing an "existential crisis", have radically shifted opinion.

Two of the eight experts who predicted that the currency would survive said it would do so only at the cost of seeing at least one of its members default on its sovereign debt. Andrew Lilico, chief economist at think tank Policy Exchange, said there was "nearly zero chance" of the euro surviving with its current membership, adding: "Greece will certainly default on its debts, and it is an open question whether Greece will experience some form of revolution or coup – I'd put the likelihood of that over the next five years as around one in four."

Douglas McWilliams of the Centre for Economics and Business Research said the single currency "may not even survive the next week", while David Blanchflower, professor at Dartmouth College and former Bank of England policymaker, added: "The political implications [of euro disintegration] are likely to be far-reaching – Germans are opposed to paying for others and may well quit."

Four of the economists said that despite the wider suspicion that Greece or some of the weaker economies may be forced out of the currency, the most likely country to leave would be Germany.

Peter Warburton of consultancy Economic Perspectives said: "Possibly Germany will leave. Possibly other central and eastern European countries – plus Denmark – will have joined. Possibly, there will be a multi-tier membership of the EU and a mechanism for entering and leaving the single currency. I think the project will survive, but not in its current form."

Tim Congdon of International Monetary Research said: "The eurozone will lose three or four members e_SEnDGreece, Portugal, maybe Ireland e_SEnD and could break up altogether because of the growing friction between France and Germany."

The recent worries about the euro's fate followed the creation last month of a $1 trillion (£691bn) bail-out fund to prevent future collapses. Although the fund boosted confidence initially, investors abandoned the euro after politicians showed reluctance to support it wholeheartedly.

Source (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html)

Svanhild
06-07-2010, 03:47 PM
Let's hope he does. Sooner!

Eldritch
06-07-2010, 04:50 PM
http://www.suomenrahapaja.fi/var/ezwebin_site/storage/images/media/images/1993-10-markkaa-a-pieni/7838-1-fin-FI/1993-10-markkaa-a-pieni.png

Welcome back, I've missed you! :hug:

Äike
06-07-2010, 04:53 PM
Estonia is getting the Euro in 6 months, lol.

http://euro.eesti.ee/EU/Prod/Euroveeb/gallery/thumbnails/50eusent.JPG

Estonia is currently the first ex-USSR to get the Euro, because we are economically clearly superior (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Europe-GDP-PPP-per-capita-map.png) then all the other ex-USSR states, but if such talk about the Euro is true, then Estonia is going to be fucked :)

Breedingvariety
06-07-2010, 05:02 PM
I hope euro fails, but I wouldn't bet on it. At least not in the most immediate future. Sure, the best thing is to own physical precious metals rather then any currency.

Breedingvariety
06-07-2010, 05:41 PM
Gold is the currency of kings.
Silver is the currency of gentlemen.
Barter is the currency of pesants.
Debt (i.e., $, Eur, £) is the currency of slaves.

Groenewolf
06-07-2010, 05:58 PM
^What is origin of that quote? Because I usually silver being referred to as the poor man's gold.

Breedingvariety
06-07-2010, 06:06 PM
^What is origin of that quote? Because I usually silver being referred to as the poor man's gold.
Pladizow posted it here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lbmas-fair-value-protection-team-goes-fish-and-chips-break

Gold priced in euros:
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/June0710EuroGold.pdf

spearofperun
06-07-2010, 08:01 PM
Hopefully it will be gone soon and into the same grave im hoping the EU(SSR) and NATO follow!

Groenewolf
06-08-2010, 03:44 AM
Gold priced in euros:
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/June0710EuroGold.pdf

I do already keep an partial eye on the gold price :coffee: .

poiuytrewq0987
06-08-2010, 04:21 AM
Estonia is getting the Euro in 6 months, lol.

http://euro.eesti.ee/EU/Prod/Euroveeb/gallery/thumbnails/50eusent.JPG

Estonia is currently the first ex-USSR to get the Euro, because we are economically clearly superior (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Europe-GDP-PPP-per-capita-map.png) then all the other ex-USSR states, but if such talk about the Euro is true, then Estonia is going to be fucked :)

Economically superior? Lol, what are you on? Your economy is tiny compared to the rest of Europe.

Fortis in Arduis
06-08-2010, 05:02 AM
Economically superior? Lol, what are you on? Your economy is tiny compared to the rest of Europe.

The comparison was made with other ex-USSR states.

ikki
06-08-2010, 05:29 AM
and then estonia gets the glory of taking a huge debt to pay blaxis dear govment crooks :D

what was it again.. 2 years average salary per estonian in debt(?).. yeah, have fun. And greeks complain about their 700e/mo wages, in estonia thats what a university professor gets paid.

Äike
06-08-2010, 10:59 AM
and then estonia gets the glory of taking a huge debt to pay blaxis dear govment crooks :D

what was it again.. 2 years average salary per estonian in debt(?).. yeah, have fun. And greeks complain about their 700e/mo wages, in estonia thats what a university professor gets paid.

Well... The average wage here is ~770 euros, but it has been higher before, like ~833 euros during the start of the economic crisis.

University professors probably get good wages, but lower tier teachers don't.

Äike
06-08-2010, 11:04 AM
Economically superior? Lol, what are you on? Your economy is tiny compared to the rest of Europe.

Estonia has one of the smallest economies in Europe, it's because we have about 1.2 million people. That's why we focus more on quality then quantity.

By GDP Estonia is quite obviously more successful then Bulgaria, even though Bulgaria wasn't in the USSR and in the 90's the Eastern Bloc countries which had not been in the USSR, had several advantages over the ex-USSR ones.

Svanhild
06-08-2010, 03:22 PM
Estonia is getting the Euro in 6 months, lol.

http://euro.eesti.ee/EU/Prod/Euroveeb/gallery/thumbnails/50eusent.JPG

Estonia is currently the first ex-USSR to get the Euro, because we are economically clearly superior (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Europe-GDP-PPP-per-capita-map.png) then all the other ex-USSR states, but if such talk about the Euro is true, then Estonia is going to be fucked :)

By no means I can understand why Estonians feel glad to join the Euro zone. You're effectively joining a rotting monster, a mind product of people-hating Eurocrats. Truth be told, your country is lead astray. How can someone feel a thrill of anticipation when his country is facing imminent political and fiscal digestion?

Stay out for your own sake, Estonia. From USSR to EUSSR.

Groenewolf
06-08-2010, 03:24 PM
By no means I can understand why Estonians feel glad to join the Euro zone.

Maybe because they see it as a move away from Russia. Is the only thing I can think of.

Äike
06-08-2010, 03:37 PM
By no means I can understand why Estonians feel glad to join the Euro zone. You're effectively joining a rotting monster, a mind product of people-hating Eurocrats. Truth be told, your country is lead astray. How can someone feel a thrill of anticipation when his country is facing imminent political and fiscal digestion?

Stay out for your own sake, Estonia. From USSR to EUSSR.


Maybe because they see it as a move away from Russia. Is the only thing I can think of.

No, it's not related to Russia.

The money chance really doesn't matter, the Estonian kroon is pegged to the Euro. If the Euro falls, then so does our currency.

Eldritch
06-08-2010, 06:12 PM
The comparison was made with other ex-USSR states.

Besides, even a small country's economy can be "superior".

Óttar
06-08-2010, 06:29 PM
The Euro collapsing will be good if only for it being economically feasible for Americans to travel. How many times have I thought, "Wouldn't it be cool to peace-out to Ireland or Germany?" and then thought "Oh wait, damn, that's not very cost effective."

Breedingvariety
06-08-2010, 06:49 PM
Well... The average wage here is ~770 euros, but it has been higher before, like ~833 euros during the start of the economic crisis.

University professors probably get good wages, but lower tier teachers don't.
I suspect university professors get more money from inside information then they do from their public endeavor.

poiuytrewq0987
06-09-2010, 05:57 PM
Estonia has one of the smallest economies in Europe, it's because we have about 1.2 million people. That's why we focus more on quality then quantity.

By GDP Estonia is quite obviously more successful then Bulgaria, even though Bulgaria wasn't in the USSR and in the 90's the Eastern Bloc countries which had not been in the USSR, had several advantages over the ex-USSR ones.

That's right, it's small and thus irrelevant in the face of the larger EU economy. Estonian contribution to the European economy is minuscule compared to the German or French contribution. So get off your high horse, and lol at you for comparing Estonia and Bulgaria. You think I care about the shithole that is Bulgaria?:rotfl2

esaima
06-09-2010, 06:28 PM
By no means I can understand why Estonians feel glad to join the Euro zone.
I don´t know. Maybe because it is the only non-negative message that Estonian government can annunciate? Personally i am pretty unimpressed.

Äike
06-09-2010, 06:41 PM
That's right, it's small and thus irrelevant in the face of the larger EU economy. Estonian contribution to the European economy is minuscule compared to the German or French contribution. So get off your high horse, and lol at you for comparing Estonia and Bulgaria.

We have a very small population, out of the EU, only Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus have smaller populations. Thus we have a small economy, but the Estonian people are the richest out of all the ex-USSR countries.

You don't need a big economy to invent new innovative things, like the first e-government in the world and Skype.

All of the world has to go to the polling stations to vote in the elections, while we have done it by the internet, with our computers for years now.

Small =/= irrelevant

Estonia can influence Europe greatly, with our innovation, especially in the IT-area.


You think I care about the shithole that is Bulgaria?:rotfl2

I thought you were Bulgarian.

poiuytrewq0987
06-09-2010, 06:49 PM
We have a very small population, out of the EU, only Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus have smaller populations. Thus we have a small economy, but the Estonian people are the richest out of all the ex-USSR countries.

And that's not saying a lot by the way. More people = more difficult to deal with corruption, and corruption often lead to the degradation of an economy which is the case with Russia. If Russia could deal with corruption, it would easily be one of the richest country per capita.


You don't need a big economy to invent new innovative things, like the first e-government in the world and Skype.

And a Jew invented Facebook, what's your point? lol. Creating new applications =/ invention

It's like calling the peanut butter an invention.


All of the world has to go to the polling stations to vote in the elections, while we have done it by the internet, with our computers for years now.

Good for you?


Small =/= irrelevant

Actually small = irrelevant. :)


Estonia can influence Europe greatly, with our innovation, especially in the IT-area.

Germany alone has the best IT industry in Europe. Your point being?


I thought you were Bulgarian.

Maybe, maybe not.

Äike
06-09-2010, 07:04 PM
And that's not saying a lot by the way. More people = more difficult to deal with corruption, and corruption often lead to the degradation of an economy which is the case with Russia. If Russia could deal with corruption, it would easily be one of the richest country per capita.



And a Jew invented Facebook, what's your point? lol. Creating new applications =/ invention

It's like calling the peanut butter an invention.


Good for you?


Actually small = irrelevant. :)

Maybe, maybe not.

Comparing truly innovative inventions with peanut butter... Your post doesn't even need a response.


Germany alone has the best IT industry in Europe. Your point being?

I wasn't talking about industry. There's a reason why the NATO Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence is located in Estonia. There are similar plans for an IT-center, by the EU.

poiuytrewq0987
06-09-2010, 07:12 PM
Comparing truly innovative inventions with peanut butter... Your post doesn't even need a response.

Calling Skype an invention is a misnomer. Skype only improved on other similar programs. You're being ridiculous here.



I wasn't talking about industry. There's a reason why the NATO Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence is located in Estonia. There are similar plans for an IT-center, by the EU.

Oh wow, who cares where the EU chose that place to be set up in?

Äike
06-09-2010, 07:29 PM
Calling Skype an invention is a misnomer. Skype only improved on other similar programs. You're being ridiculous here.



Oh wow, who cares where the EU chose that place to be set up in?

Simpleminded people like you don't care about anything I presume, you just want to live your life without knowing anything about the government nor politics.

poiuytrewq0987
06-09-2010, 07:37 PM
Simpleminded people like you don't care about anything I presume, you just want to live your life without knowing anything about the government nor politics.

Only the people who know they are wrong resort to insults. :thumb001:

Äike
06-09-2010, 07:41 PM
Only the people who know they are wrong resort to insults. :thumb001:

I'm just surprised at your lack of interest about the systems which govern you.

poiuytrewq0987
06-09-2010, 07:44 PM
I'm just surprised at your lack of interest about the systems which govern you.

The EU doesn't govern me.

Äike
06-09-2010, 08:17 PM
The EU doesn't govern me.

If you live in Macedonia, then this explains why you don't give a damn about the EU nor NATO.

poiuytrewq0987
06-09-2010, 09:15 PM
If you live in Macedonia, then this explains why you don't give a damn about the EU nor NATO.

Not permanently but yes for the moment I do live here (for a few months anyhow) and yes I don't give a damn about both institutions even if I lived in a EU/NATO country I would still not give a damn.

Breedingvariety
06-09-2010, 09:29 PM
I don't give a damn about EU and NATO, about traitors of Europe.

Äike
06-10-2010, 08:43 AM
I don't give a damn about EU and NATO, about traitors of Europe.

EU and NATO are the lesser evils. What do you prefer? NATO or Содружество Независимых Государств (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States.svg/800px-Commonwealth_of_Independent_States.svg.png)?

Monolith
06-10-2010, 08:55 AM
The money chance really doesn't matter, the Estonian kroon is pegged to the Euro. If the Euro falls, then so does our currency.
Not necessarily. Your monetary authorities can always abandon your current fixed exchange rate and opt for a floating one.

Äike
06-10-2010, 08:59 AM
Not necessarily. Your monetary authorities can always abandon your current fixed exchange rate and opt for a floating one.

They won't do that :p

Breedingvariety
06-11-2010, 05:36 PM
They won't do that :p
They will do whatever they want to do.:p

The Lawspeaker
06-11-2010, 06:34 PM
http://www.tulving.com/bullion/Netherlands10Gulden.jpg
Soon, my dear friend, will you return in our midst. And this time we should mint you in gold and silver.