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Graham
07-22-2010, 11:21 AM
Population boost from minorities' growth
Published Date: 15 July 2010
By Jenny Fyall
http://news.scotsman.com/news/Population-boost-from-minorities39-growth.6420605.jp

THE share of white British people living in Scotland will drop by 10 per cent by the middle of the century as ethnic minorities grow, new research has shown.
White British people will make up 84.3 per cent of the population in 2051, compared with 94.3 per cent in 2006, the study by the University of Leeds has shown.

This will equate to a reduction from 4.82 million today, compared with 4.65 million by the middle of the century.

However, the overall population will continue to rise, from 5.1 million to 5.5 million over the same time period, driven by an increase in immigrants and growing numbers of ethnic minorities.

In 2051, the study shows that ethnic minority groups will make up 6.2 per cent of Scotland's population compared with 2.4 per cent in 2006, with particularly rapid rises among Pakistani and Chinese groups.

This will mean there will be about 342,000 people from ethnic minority groups in Scotland in 2051, as against 123,000 in 2006.

However, the fastest rise in Scotland will be among the White Other group, which includes people from EU countries such as Poland and from America, Australia and Canada. This group will rise from 2.29 per cent of the population in 2006 to 8.1 per cent in 2051.

Scientists at the University of Leeds compiled the Scotland-specific statistics for The Scotsman following the launch of a study earlier this week on population projections across the UK as a whole.

Whereas in the UK as a whole ethnic minority groups are expected to make up a fifth of the population by 2051, the new data shows that in Scotland they are projected to make up just 6 per cent.

Professor Philip Rees, who led the project, said: "This is to do with the history of migration and where immigrants have gone, and they have predominantly gone to places with jobs and opportunities.

"There are clearly immigrant communities in Scotland - just think of Italian ice cream. Then there are the Pakistani and Asian communities in central Glasgow, and in Edinburgh the international business activities will be attracting lots of people, as well as the universities.

"So Scotland is not without its diversity.

But still if you catch a train from Waverley in Edinburgh to Kings Cross in Leeds and look at the people milling about at the station you notice quite a difference."

Groups expected to grow the fastest - such as those from Pakistan, people immigrating from Europe, America and Australia, and those that are mixed ethnic and white - usually have the youngest age structures, according to the report.

"They have a youthful age structure with a concentration in the 20 to 45 age group," Prof Rees said.

In contrast, the White British groups, which includes people from Scotland and elsewhere in the UK, have an older age structure, which results in lower birth rates.

The UK-wide study, Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, also predicted that ethnic minority groups would shift from living largely in deprived local authority areas to more affluent areas, making them significantly less segregated from the rest of the population.

IN NUMBERS
5,112,317 - Scotland's population in 2006
5,515893 - Scotland's population in 2051
97.6% - Percentage share of white groups 2006
93.8% - Percentage share of white groups 2051
2.4% - Percentage share of ethnic minority groups 2006
6.2% - Percentage share of ethnic minority groups 2051

The Polish population boom, a 'hink half of them live where I am :D