How fast will the Taliban retake the country upon inevitable U.S. exit?

[Austin]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2007238,00.html


With the U.S. clearly looking to exit the ancient unconquerable abyss which is Afghanistan, obvious to anybody who even moderately keeps tabs on the political language/sentiment of the situation, how long do you think the inevitable remaining U.S.-supported Kabul government will last in comparison to the Soviet supported one?

I personally am of the opinion the Taliban will clean house within two years of our exit and probably hang/gut/behead every person even remotely affiliated with the allies. What do you think>?

[Beorn]

Alexander the Great, the British Empire and Russia are laughing at the USA.

[Austin]

Alexander the Great, the British Empire and Russia are laughing at the USA.

Well yes evidently. See I absolutely do not believe the U.S. will continue to pump money into the country once we no longer have a substantial military force to protect such investments. And I know from living in the U.S. that we do not have the stomach to put more U.S. troops through the meat grinder defending an insulated Kabul government surrounded by tens of thousands of Taliban, yet Russia did have the stomach to do that to a degree which is why the remnant Soviet govt. held out as long as it did yet I firmly believe the U.S. does not and will not make such a sacrifice once we are out which spells doom for any remaining govt. there as I see it.

[Curtis24]

Reality is reality. a Taliban takeover and the creation of an Islamist repressive government is the only outcome given Afghanistan's culture and geography.

The real question is why Obama expanded the war. I"ve heard some theories that it was in preparation of an attack on Pakistan..

[Austin]

Reality is reality. a Taliban takeover and the creation of an Islamist repressive government is the only outcome given Afghanistan's culture and geography.

The real question is why Obama expanded the war. I"ve heard some theories that it was in preparation of an attack on Pakistan..

Yes it is all about economics, I think the reason Afghanistan was all out invaded instead of just bombed to hell is because U.S./Western Europe wanted to accomplish two things in one hit.

-Weaken India's Islamic militant regional dilemma by removing Afghanistan from the picture and constantly undermining Pakistan hence alleviating pressure on India over the Kashmir conflict

-strengthen India economically by weakening the Islamic world, India is a better friend to the West than Pakistan economically hence by invading Afghanistan and undermining Pakistan India is made dominant and the Wests economic friend is buffered

Also the notion that Europe was against the invasion is a smoke screen. Europe is it's own entity, it went to war willingly. The anti-war stance in many of your countries by politicians is largely a superficial token, they went to war for economic reasons with the U.S. because they saw what the U.S. saw economically, the notion that Europe is somehow above the U.S. in regards to Afghanistan is extremely naive, they were and are all on board behind closed doors.

Europe is just playing the good, moralistic anti-war role and the U.S. is playing the big bad oppressive invader role. In this way they temper and confuse the masses by creating a supposedly "good" side in the war (Europe) and a supposedly "less good" side in the war (the U.S.), when in reality they are both hand in hand behind the curtains reaping the benefits of their compact.

[SwordoftheVistula]

I don't think they are that smart. They initially invaded Afghanistan to boot out bin Ladin & al-quada, then they didn't know what to do with it, so like most government programs it just continued on its own inertia. Obama's just keeping it in a holding pattern now in order to keep it out of the news, since he has enough bad press already. They can't score any 'victories' which would give him good press, and a withdrawal might cause people to say he 'lost' the war, so 'holding pattern' it is.

[Austin]

I don't think they are that smart. They initially invaded Afghanistan to boot out bin Ladin & al-quada, then they didn't know what to do with it, so like most government programs it just continued on its own inertia. Obama's just keeping it in a holding pattern now in order to keep it out of the news, since he has enough bad press already. They can't score any 'victories' which would give him good press, and a withdrawal might cause people to say he 'lost' the war, so 'holding pattern' it is.

Obama is holding us there and surely he doesn't want to go down as a weak liberal-black man who lost a war, so yes that surely plays a role in our remaining there yet I would still argue that we are there now only to destabilize Pakistan and the region in general for economic reasons.

The West is run by very smart, calculatingly efficient people. We would not be there unless there were good long-term economic reasons for being there. War is waged for economic reasons in the 21st century through superpowers not in order to go look for a crippled towel head. I believe Osama was a secondary reason for invading.

-Afghanistan was weak and presented an easy entry point to begin the destabilization of the region in favor of India/Saudi, our good economic friends

-Look at who has half the road contracts and construction contracts in Afghanistan...Indian companies and subsidiaries

-Removing Saddam and invading Iraq was a gift to the Saudis, they loved it

-Saudi's are currently pressuring U.S. behind scenes to invade Iran, they desire this very badly

-The entire entry into the Middle-East by the West was to ensure Saudi Arabia's regional security/stability so as to protect the black gold kingdom

-India loves the entire situation but openly questions it, Saudi royals love it but openly question it, Israel is jumping with joy

-China/Russia stay quite and wave it along so much as they are allowed to rape/destroy their despised Islamic minorities internally, which they have been doing under the guise of "anti-terror measures"

[Tyrrhenoi]

-The entire entry into the Middle-East by the West was to ensure Saudi Arabia's regional security/stability so as to protect the black gold kingdom


Mmm.. I have questions about this thesis, before Iraq was invated by the U.S. the oil production of Iraq was less than nowadays as result of trade embargos. Nowadays the oil is exported and Saudi have an extra competitor in it's business. So has Saudi benefited from this situation?

[RoyBatty]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2007238,00.html


With the U.S. clearly looking to exit the ancient unconquerable abyss which is Afghanistan, obvious to anybody who even moderately keeps tabs on the political language/sentiment of the situation, how long do you think the inevitable remaining U.S.-supported Kabul government will last in comparison to the Soviet supported one?

I personally am of the opinion the Taliban will clean house within two years of our exit and probably hang/gut/behead every person even remotely affiliated with the allies. What do you think>?

Retake the country? Did they ever "lose it"? :D

All the US and HATO does is to chase them from one hill to the next. The Taliban never went away nor lost much of anything. The mayor of Kabul ("President" Karzai) is temporary window-dressing. Outside the capital the only real authority (except when it is temporarily disrupted by the US and HATO) are the Taleban.

You have the wrong idea about them too. They're not going to go and "behead" every Afghan remotely affiliated with US HATO. Why? Because even the Taleban are affiliated with US HATO. They do deals in the day. They do a little shooting at night. Next day it's back to "how are you my friend", lol :D

You need to understand that an Afghan's loyalty can be rented (on a temporary basis) but it cannot be bought. US HATO are renting cooperation from the Afghan's. It's not very reliable cooperation. It's a waste of your taxes. In the process corrupt US officials and corporations and war material producers make a fortune by effectively stealing your taxes to pay for this charade.

I personally have met an ex-Afghan army regular from the time of the Soviet invasion (late 1970's to 1980's). Some time ago he returned to Afghanistan to visit his mother. The local Taleban got wind of this (they are surprisingly well informed and have intel / information on things one wouldn't have guessed).
They "invited" him to come and say hello to the boys and show his respects. He was told by his relatives he'd better go.

He went, there wasn't much choice. To cut a long story short, they did make him a bit nervous (particularly the younger, more psychotic, more trigger happy Talebs) but the local bossman ended up telling him that the past doesn't matter, he's an Afghan, welcome back and to come visit any time.

Hope this clears things up a bit for you about how things work out there.

[SwordoftheVistula]

I don't think you could 'destabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan' anymore than it already was.

Besides, the only 'economic interest' is all the outsourcing to India, which increasing tensions in Pakistan could potentially harm.

As to "The West is run by very smart, calculatingly efficient people", short-sighted greedy people would be a better definition. The big money here is in defense contracts, as far as any wars go, and mostly the rest is in various financial schemes (which mainly profit from government inefficiency) for which wars are only a distraction.

[Austin]

Retake the country? Did they ever "lose it"? :D

All the US and HATO does is to chase them from one hill to the next. The Taliban never went away nor lost much of anything. The mayor of Kabul ("President" Karzai) is temporary window-dressing. Outside the capital the only real authority (except when it is temporarily disrupted by the US and HATO) are the Taleban.

You have the wrong idea about them too. They're not going to go and "behead" every Afghan remotely affiliated with US HATO. Why? Because even the Taleban are affiliated with US HATO. They do deals in the day. They do a little shooting at night. Next day it's back to "how are you my friend", lol :D

You need to understand that an Afghan's loyalty can be rented (on a temporary basis) but it cannot be bought. US HATO are renting cooperation from the Afghan's. It's not very reliable cooperation. It's a waste of your taxes. In the process corrupt US officials and corporations and war material producers make a fortune by effectively stealing your taxes to pay for this charade.

I personally have met an ex-Afghan army regular from the time of the Soviet invasion (late 1970's to 1980's). Some time ago he returned to Afghanistan to visit his mother. The local Taleban got wind of this (they are surprisingly well informed and have intel / information on things one wouldn't have guessed).
They "invited" him to come and say hello to the boys and show his respects. He was told by his relatives he'd better go.

He went, there wasn't much choice. To cut a long story short, they did make him a bit nervous (particularly the younger, more psychotic, more trigger happy Talebs) but the local bossman ended up telling him that the past doesn't matter, he's an Afghan, welcome back and to come visit any time.

Hope this clears things up a bit for you about how things work out there.


I don't see what we are in disagreement about. The Taliban still are ultimately against NATO, just because they do deals with them doesn't lessen that reality.

And I do disagree with the friends with everyone afterwords part, I think there will be a lot of purging.

[Austin]

I don't think you could 'destabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan' anymore than it already was.

Besides, the only 'economic interest' is all the outsourcing to India, which increasing tensions in Pakistan could potentially harm.

As to "The West is run by very smart, calculatingly efficient people", short-sighted greedy people would be a better definition. The big money here is in defense contracts, as far as any wars go, and mostly the rest is in various financial schemes (which mainly profit from government inefficiency) for which wars are only a distraction.

Eh this is just not true this incessant mentality that the West's true leadership is "stupid" and "clueless"... Believing this essentially is to buy into the notion that the world isn't as connected and aware as it truly is, those who run the show do what they do for very exact reasons, they would have the masses believe otherwise as seems to be the case with you guys.

The ultimate conspiracy is that there are no "accidental" wars and "stupid" world leaders who make "idiotic blunders". Everything is done and executed in the manner in which it is for precise economic reasons and global allegiances and or interests. The notion that all world leaders are uninformed morons is what they want people to think, they are in fact not at all.

[Eldritch]

I think it's, like, really good 'n' shit that the US is in Afganistan. Because, like, this will happen if they leave:

http://www.thestranger.com/images/blogimages/2010/07/30/1280527375-time_cover_0809.jpg

You know, because this hasn't happened, now that they are there and stuff.

[Äike]

The US and probably the majority of NATO members won't leave the Middle-East before the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq are strong enough to control their countries without any outside help. The Taliban will never control those countries again.

[Pallantides]

the ancient unconquerable abyss which is Afghanistan, o

The Ghaznavids conquered Afghanistan. ;)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/Ghaznavid_Empire_975_-_1187_(AD).PNG


The Pashtuns didn't get control from the Persians and Trukics before the merging of the Durrani Empire in 1747, before that Afghanistan was ruled by the Afsharids and Mughals.

[RoyBatty]

I don't see what we are in disagreement about. The Taliban still are ultimately against NATO, just because they do deals with them doesn't lessen that reality.

And I do disagree with the friends with everyone afterwords part, I think there will be a lot of purging.

The Taleban don't need to wait for the US / HATO to go anywhere. If they want to purge they can purge right now, today, any time, any place apart from sectors which are heavily patrolled by the US / HATO.

Study history a little. The mujaheddeen (old version of the Taleban financed & armed by the USA) didn't go around "purging" Afghanistan after the Soviet Union withdrew.

Sure, there were some scores which would have been settled, local disputes would have been taken care of, this klan may have done a number on another klan etc. but this is normal, all in a days work out there. Nothing unusual or out of the ordinary out there.

As for major Mao or Stalin style purges, forget it. It didn't happen before, it isn't happening now, why should it happen in the future?

What will happen is that anybody being a smarta$$ who defies the Taleban, who fights them and who opposes them will naturally be dealt with, the same as what US / HATO are trying to do with the Talebs who oppose them.

Afghans who don't actively oppose the Talebs will generally be left alone. Afghans aren't stupid. When the time comes to switch sides to the winning team (most likely the Taleban) most of them will do so.

[RoyBatty]

The US and probably the majority of NATO members won't leave the Middle-East before the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq are strong enough to control their countries without any outside help. The Taliban will never control those countries again.

Come again? The USA and HATO deliberately destabilised Afghanistan in the 1970's to become the hornets nest that it is today. They've made their bed and if they plan to wait until conditions are "normalised" there they may as well just sign a blank cheque for an indefinite occupation achieving little but to drain the Imperial Coffers. :thumbs up

[Austin]

Saudi's are happy Saddam was removed due to the military threat he continually posed to the kingdom, which is why Saudi allowed the US to put a base in their country.

Saudi doesn't care about Iraqi oil it is nothing compared to Saudi reserves, they are happy the agressor Saddam is out of the picture, now all they need is Iran to dissapear and they are set.

The U.S./NATO will leave Afghanistan soon enough and when they do they will leave a weak little joke government which controls only kabul as is curently the case already and when this occurs the Taliban will eventually take it and then butcher every westernised woman that they haven't already.

NATO's weak little Kabul govt. won't last 3 months without it's current funding and troop levels. Once the U.S. pulls out it will all go to hell and the govt. will cut deals with the Taliban if not just fork over everything to them entirely in trade for their lives.

[Groenewolf]

The US and probably the majority of NATO members won't leave the Middle-East before the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq are strong enough to control their countries without any outside help. The Taliban will never control those countries again.

This is a bit naive. If this is the case then we be in there for generations to come. it is highly doubtful that Kabul could ever control more then a few cities and the surrounding area. Pretty much the same thing as it is now. The day we no longer send forces and/or money to Afghanistan is the day the regime in Kabul collapses.

Besides that we are not really there to win the war (http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2010/08/dumbing-down-our-national-interest.html#readfurther) with the Taliban. I think withdrawal before the point you mentioned is unavoidable, simply because of the rising costs of the halfhearted semi-attempt to pacify Afghanistan. Then for maybe a few years we just send money to Kabul to do it for us, until also that becomes to expensive.

[Óttar]

Afghanistan Pakistanque delenda sunt!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lFHfBGhv430/SwZ9P7qSmFI/AAAAAAAAADc/Tdv_y17M7H8/s1600/akb3.JPG

The only ones standing in the way are the f*cking Chinese. Madarchod :mad:

[Loki]

A modern "civilized" war won't beat the Taliban. The type of war that Europe had to endure in 1939 - 1945 would. Very easily. Or the US could just nuke the country until no mountains are even left. But that wouldn't go down well with the Western voters.

[Óttar]

A modern "civilized" war won't beat the Taliban. The type of war that Europe had to endure in 1939 - 1945 would. Very easily. Or the US could just nuke the country until no mountains are even left. But that wouldn't go down well with the Western voters.
We should just use drone aircraft with heavy carpet-bombing. Napoleon didn't call up the international community and ask their approval. :coffee:

[RoyBatty]

Saudi's are happy Saddam was removed due to the military threat he continually posed to the kingdom, which is why Saudi allowed the US to put a base in their country.

Saudi doesn't care about Iraqi oil it is nothing compared to Saudi reserves, they are happy the agressor Saddam is out of the picture, now all they need is Iran to dissapear and they are set.

The U.S./NATO will leave Afghanistan soon enough and when they do they will leave a weak little joke government which controls only kabul as is curently the case already and when this occurs the Taliban will eventually take it and then butcher every westernised woman that they haven't already.

NATO's weak little Kabul govt. won't last 3 months without it's current funding and troop levels. Once the U.S. pulls out it will all go to hell and the govt. will cut deals with the Taliban if not just fork over everything to them entirely in trade for their lives.

Obviously the current Afghan puppet "government" won't last. It has no legitimacy or any kind of popular support, never mind whether people supposedly vote for them or not at the polling booths.

The Taleban are the only force their with popular support. They can also count on likely support from Pakistan even though the Pakistanis won't openly admit to it, after all, why screw up a useful arrangement with the US which sees them receiving billions of dollars in US bribes lol. :D

Just before the USA invaded Afghanistan they (and when I speak of they I consider the Federal Government and USA Corporations as the same thing) were trying to negotiate energy pipeline deals with the same Taleban they are now fighting against. Back then the Taleban were good enough for honest Jewish and Christian American businessmen and the freedom and democracy loving US Federal State to deal with.

The Taleban held out for more money than these nice people were willing to pay. Soon after, Afghanistan was invaded by the USA and HATO. Coincidence? Draw your own conclusions but I think NOT.

9/11 was obviously an inside US job. Of all the arguments for and against it, one only needs to look at what happened to the Pentagon building. Was it hit by a plane? Only if you believe in Area 51, the Tooth Fairy and the Perpetual Motion Machine which generates more energy than what is required to drive it.

I couldn't quite work out whether you were being sympathetic to the Saudi's or considered them "our friends" or valued "US Allies" but if you do, you may want to reconsider. They're a much more troublesome and unwholesome bunch of crooks than the Iranians and are far more active in promoting "Islamic" terrorism in a number of hotspots around the world.

[RoyBatty]

We should just use drone aircraft with heavy carpet-bombing. Napoleon didn't call up the international community and ask their approval. :coffee:

Carpet bomb what? Iqbal and his 40 goats? What's the point? Seal up the borders, pack the bags, let them fight it out amongst themselves. Who cares, frankly.


Only problem is one wonders whether this will actually happen. Why? Coz Afghanistan is a gateway to the riches and spoils of Central Asia and Russia and it is a useful base from which to poison Russia via the heroin trade as the USA and HATO are already doing.

Recently announcements were made that Afghanistan's sitting on top of Jah Rastafari knows how much valuable minerals just waiting to be exploited. Would the freedomloving HATO alliance really be prepared to just walk away from all those potential profits, energy pipeline routes, the ability to poison Russia AND a base from which to attack Iran?

I wonder.......

[Sol Invictus]

How fast will the Taliban retake the country upon inevitable U.S. exit?

Sooner the better..

[SwordoftheVistula]

Would the freedomloving HATO alliance really be prepared to just walk away from all those potential profits, energy pipeline routes, the ability to poison Russia AND a base from which to attack Iran?

So far, they have just let China take those over, because they're retarded

[RoyBatty]

So far, they have just let China take those over, because they're retarded

You're probably right, the same (to a lesser extent) may be the case with the Indians. I'm sure they're also trying to gain an opening there.

[Sol Invictus]

So far, they have just let China take those over, because they're retarded

Interesting.. Perhaps paying off some outstanding debts? I doubt the U.S will cede it's holdings of Afghan millitary installations to the Chinese though as it would be a vital platform against Iran, then again they always have Iraq.. I wonder what will become of the opium industry. I doubt they will hand that over to the Chinese tbh.

[Guapo]

You just don't fight mountain folk on their own terrain.

[Austin]

Saudis are dirt yes but Saudi royals care about staying in power even if it means actively undermining the rest of the Arab world. This is why Saudis are held up they hold our oil and say yes to us enough to warrant being protected and furthered. Saudis are used against the rest of the Arab world.

Yes bad things come of this relationship, Osama, radical views of Islam, but in the end Saudi Arabia and it's power-obssesed royals have aided the West in undermining their neighbors more than any other Arab nation, hence they are tolerated and allied with.

Although yes I am aware Saudis are scum, more so than the rest actually as I have met Saudis and they are pure filth desert rats, although actually I met a devout one and he was actually a good guy really liked him, his westernised friend I hated though that one was nothing but a whore.

[SwordoftheVistula]

Interesting.. Perhaps paying off some outstanding debts?

Huh, never thought of that, you may be on to something. China might be threatening to economically pull the rug out from the US government by unloading all the debt they hold in return for the US allowing China to economically colonize Afghanistan and all these other places. That could explain why the US never economically benefits from all these wars, they get the domestic political benefit and pass the economic benefit off to China in order to keep China pacified.