Ireland's in trouble

[The Lawspeaker]

Central Bank Governor expects multi-billion euro loan (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/central-bank-governor-expects-multibillion-euro-loan-2425794.html)

Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan today said he expects the country to get a loan worth tens of billions through an International Monetary Fund-European Union rescue package.

But Professor Honohan said he believes influential IMF-EU experts will not demand any radical alteration of the Government's savings plans once they inspect Exchequer and bank books.

"It's not my call. It's the Government at the end. It's my expectation that that is what is likely to happen," he told RTE Radio.

Irish financial chiefs will today lock horns with IMF-EU officials on options to bail out the banks and drag the country from economic meltdown.

The Government will open its debt-ridden books at a series of meetings over the next seven to 10 days as the harrowing spectre of a multibillion-euro rescue looms over Dublin.

Despite the daunting arrival of IMF specialists, the Government - reluctant to accept the need for outside assistance - maintained that it has not asked for or been granted financial aid.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen said talk of a bailout belittles Ireland.

Professor Honohan, at a meeting of Central Bank colleagues in Frankfurt, said he expected talks in Dublin to lead to the loan.

"I think this is the way forward," he said.

"I don't see it as something that is really worrisome or should lead to a huge change in direction."

Detailed talks will centre on two fronts - plans for €15bn savings over four years and next month's €6bn slash-and-burn budget as well as the damage done by the banking black hole.

It has been estimated that the banks need €50bn to survive but the losses are compounded every month by worsening bankruptcies, mortgage arrears, a run on deposits and loan defaults.

In some quarters the bail-out numbers being speculated are as high as €90bn.

It is understood an IMF team laid the groundwork yesterday in the offices of the Central Bank for a trawl of Irish state banking records.

Britain has already stepped up to the plate with Chancellor George Osborne stating that Treasury chiefs were considering all options for financial aid to Ireland.

The Dublin talks follow two days of discussions in Brussels involving eurozone and EU finance ministers and heated debate across Europe over a way forward for Ireland.

Those sitting down include IMF experts, the European Central Bank and European Commission officials.

Putting the Irish case will be Department of Finance officials, financial regulator Matthew Elderfield and the Central Bank.



I am listening to the RTÉ (http://www.rte.ie/news/morningireland/player.html?20101118,2856627,2856661,flash,257)

[ikki]

2000 sq km of land with people, cities etc as collateral, for the finnish 2 billion. Also the states shares in companies.

[The Lawspeaker]

Frankly I am very sorry for the Irish but I don't think we should give them the heroine they need (a bailout is like supplying drugs to an addict). We are already cutting back some 17 billion which will basically wreck our country and we already helped the Greeks. Go ask someone else.

[The Lawspeaker]

2008 article (http://bocktherobber.com/2008/06/irish-economy-fucked-official) by some blogger. Prepare for some harsh language:

Irish Economy Fucked — Official!

We’re screwed.

Goosed. Fucked. Knackered. Bollixed. Kiboshed. Stuffed. Ruined. Shattered.

That’s it. We’re buggered.

According to the Economic and Social Research Institute, the party’s over and we’re all up Shit Creek without a fucking paddle. Furthermore, they’re right. We are screwed, and we deserve it for persuading ourselves that we had a vibrant economy when in reality all we had was one gigantic motherfucker of an overdraft.

Who knew?

Well, Charlie McCreevy knew, when he was giving away to his pals in the building industry and the bloodstock industry the proceeds of the most prosperous years this country has ever known. And he knew when he was handing the people bread and circuses, by cutting taxes to the bone, instead of investing in infrastructure, and by giving free money to the middle classes through the SSIA scheme. (Don’t get me wrong: you’d be a fool not to take it). All of which is is why he fucked off to Brussels to get his snout into the Commission trough while the going was good. Nice one, Charlie, the only English-speaking Commissioner in history who needs an interpreter to translate what he says into English.

And Brian Cowen knew, when he succeeded Charlie as Finance Minister. It didn’t stop him continuing with the same lunatic spendthrift policies, buying one election after another.

And Bertie Ahern knew as well, but he was too busy trying to slither his way out of his various scandals, and making up lies to tell the Tribunals, and making up more lies to tell the country on the six o’clock news, and too busy trying to hide his money from his ex-wife, and too busy keeping his appalling girlfriend happy and too busy kissing the arses of his former employers, the nuns, who seemed to have something very embarrassing on him.

Where are the hospitals we need? Where are the railways? Where’s the energy policy? Where are the schools? Where’s the broadband? Where’s the investment in research and development? Where are all the things that this country needed to face the future with confidence?

Will I tell you?

Nowhere. That’s fucking where. Nowhere, because these muppets who’ve been in government for too long didn’t have the imagination to realise that we needed these things.

Why?

Because they’re a sad, incompetent bunch of half-witted, half-educated bums, that’s why.

Because behind it all, they’re a bunch of clumsy, loudmouth buffoons who feel uncomfortable in civilised company, and who are owned, body and soul, by big business. This crowd of arseholes have taken the biggest boom the country has ever known, and they’ve pissed it up against the wall.

If the electorate votes for these gobshites again, we deserve everything we get. And do you know something? The opposition are no better. No fucking better. Just another crowd of half-arsed gobshites in ill-fitting suits and dodgy hairpieces.

What a fucking country.

[Murphy]

Frankly I am very sorry for the Irish but I don't think we should give them the heroine they need (a bailout is like supplying drugs to an addict). We are already cutting back some 17 billion which will basically wreck our country and we already helped the Greeks. Go ask someone else.

I pray Ireland does not. The people need to learn this lesson.

[The Lawspeaker]

I pray Ireland does not. The people need to learn this lesson.
I pray with you but I can't blame them for having weak flesh.

[Jack B]

Hope nobody gives us a penny and we become the poorest country in Western Europe again. Things might get back to how they used to be then. It's mostly the rich fuckers that notice these fluctuations in fortune anyway, if you have nothing you can't lose it.

[Loki]

I pray Ireland does not. The people need to learn this lesson.

It's not the people's fault, it's the govt who guaranteed the banks in 2008, thereby making the entire Irish population responsible for bank debt, effectively. They should be hanged.

[Germanicus]

Hope nobody gives us a penny and we become the poorest country in Western Europe again. Things might get back to how they used to be then. It's mostly the rich fuckers that notice these fluctuations in fortune anyway, if you have nothing you can't lose it.


Ireland is part of the British isles, to have it bankrupt would damage the Union countries by losing trade and commerce, we must help Ireland all we can, to turn our backs would be unthinkable.

[Murphy]

It's not the people's fault, it's the govt who guaranteed the banks in 2008, thereby making the entire Irish population responsible for bank debt, effectively. They should be hanged.

The Irish people were quick enough to jump on the band-wagon. I refuse to blame a rich cabal behind the scenes to give the people a scapegoat. The people have enabled the elite and therefore share the guilt.


Ireland is part of the British isles, to have it bankrupt would damage the Union countries by losing trade and commerce, we must help Ireland all we can, to turn our backs would be unthinkable.

Hardly that badly.. but either way I oppose this vehemently. It's just British Imperialism all over again.

[Loki]

The people have enabled the elite and therefore share the guilt.


Quite literally they will, those who remain in Ireland. Others with more of a sense of self-preservation will probably try to emigrate.

[Graham]

Ireland is part of the British isles, to have it bankrupt would damage the Union countries by losing trade and commerce, we must help Ireland all we can, to turn our backs would be unthinkable.


Well the Uk's 5th biggest trading partner is Ireland.
We've no choice but to help with the UK share of £7 billion going to Ireland.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8141618/British-banks-have-140-billion-exposure-to-Irelands-economic-crisis.html
British banks have £140 billion exposure to Ireland's economic crisis
George Osborne has pledged to help Ireland after new figures showed British banks have a £140 billion exposure to the beleaguered country.

[Murphy]

Well the Uk's 5th biggest trading partner is Ireland.
We've no choice but to help with the UK share of £7 billion going to Ireland.

I stand corrected. It seems it wont do Britain any good either.

[Osweo]

On the radio today, I was impressed to hear an Irish voice say this;

"[foreign/EU/IMF] are not here as friends of the Irish people, but are here to carry out the diktats of the sharks and speculators of international finance."

(or something like that.)

I know we here on these forums often analyse in such terms, but hearing it on the mainstream radio news programme is new to me. Let's hope we hear some more of this sort of finger-pointing in the near future!

[Oinakos Growion]

On the radio today, I was impressed to hear an Irish voice say this;

"[foreign/EU/IMF] are not here as friends of the Irish people, but are here to carry out the diktats of the sharks and speculators of international finance."

(or something like that.)
Yep. You can hear all sort of things on Irish radio and TV. Irish people are not afraid of speaking out most of the time. Having said that, there have been many voices asking for "the Germans to take over this country, because our government is useless and we can't trust any of our politicians" (and things like that), long before the crisis hit this hard.
Let's say that the Irish People are in a state of confusion and mixed emotions: national pride+realisation they have "failed" (sort to speak)... It is painful for everybody and I guess that the most annoying issue is that nobody in the politicians side is able to propose or do anything at all.
Braindead government. Opposition missing in action. Confused population still wondering what the f* is exactly going on...


Others with more of a sense of self-preservation will probably try to emigrate
Some are. The question for them is: "emigrate... where?", because half the planet is a no-go area for one reason or the other.

[Loki]

Ireland fears civil unrest as bank crisis deepens (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/20/ireland-union-devoy-bank-crisis)

Trade union leader warns of riots if government imposes further 'draconian' cuts to public sector

One of Ireland's biggest trade unions warned today that the nation was on the brink of civil unrest as government officials negotiated a multibillion euro bailout for the country's ailing banks.

The Technical Engineering and Electrical Union said further "draconian" public sector cuts of €15bn (£13bn) over four years could lead to street disorder. It urged a campaign of civil disobedience unless the taoiseach, Brian Cowen, calls an immediate election. An emergency cabinet tomorrow will discuss the new round of cuts.

"When the measures being proposed are heaped on top of the €14.5bn cuts already implemented in the last three brutal budgets, life in Ireland will be unbearable," said the TEEU leader, Eamon Devoy. A group of 16 officials from the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank are staying in Dublin's luxury Merrion hotel, holding talks throughout the weekend with the Irish government and Ireland's central bank. Financial sources told the Observer that a strategy could be announced as soon as Monday to stabilise Ireland's banks.

A first priority is to restore confidence and halt an outflow of cash – Anglo Irish Banks revealed on Friday that customers have withdrawn €13bn of deposits this year. Measures under consideration include hiving off rotten loans into a freestanding "bad bank".

An injection of capital into the banks could be followed by a broader sovereign bailout in the form of a multibillion euro "contingency loan" from the IMF and the ECB. Government sources said the loan would be available for Ireland to draw on if it ran out of money from the beginning of 2011. Asked about any preconditions that might be imposed, one senior source within the ruling Fianna Fail party said: "Because it's a loan that we will have to pay back, they won't be seeking anything major in return like higher corporation tax for Ireland."

Ireland's unusually low 12.5% rate of corporation tax, which has lured investment to the country by multinationals such as Google and Microsoft, is a bone of contention among European leaders. France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, today said he expected Ireland to increase the tax.

"There are two levers to use: spending and revenues," he said at a Nato summit in Lisbon. "I cannot imagine that our Irish friends [would not use] this because they have a greater margin for manoeuvre than others, their taxes being lower than others."

Ireland's European allies fear that without swift action Ireland's debt crisis could become contagious, weakening confidence in Greece, Portugal, Spain and in the euro as a currency. William Hague, Britain's foreign secretary, expressed uncertainty about the future of the single currency – asked on the Today programme whether he felt the euro could collapse, he said: "I very much hope not. Who knows?"

David Begg, general secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, said the union movement was calling for mass protests on 27 November to "allow ordinary working people to voice their opposition to a policy that could destroy 90,000 more jobs".

[Foxy]

On Tv while I was watching the report about the economical problems of Ireland, I noticed this statue that impressed me very much:

http://www.urell.ie/Famine%20Memorial%20Dublin.jpg

Let's hope everything will go better for Ireland. Personally I am ready to substain it like with Greece. I love Europe and it is very sad for me to see a country in difficulties.

[antonio]

Let's hope everything will go better for Ireland. Personally I am ready to substain it like with Greece. I love Europe and it is very sad for me to see a country in difficulties.

I love Europe too but I will save my sadness for 80@Sahel-like situations. And, as long as know, nobody at WesternEurope is starving to death by current economical collapse. So dont suffer too much...it's just the end of the Irish party, the previous bubble was the unreal, nowadays what happens is just reality being resumed :thumb001:

[Foxy]

I love Europe too but I will save my sadness for 80@Sahel-like situations. And, as long as know, nobody at WesternEurope is starving to death by current economical collapse. So dont suffer too much...it's just the end of the Irish party, the previous bubble was the unreal, nowadays what happens is just reality being resumed :thumb001:

Well, surely nobody is starving, lucky, but historically Ireland suffered its starving time, as well as Italy, but in less degree. Both the peoples however lived a strong immigration abroad and were discriminated for being catholic, both fraternized. As long as my memory goes, Italians are friends to Irish, so to see Ireland in bad conditions surely doesn't make me smile.
That statue was impressive for me maybe becouse it is pretty similar to what some parts of Italy experienced too and made me thought that we should stay united again and support Ireland.

[poiuytrewq0987]

The Irish economy grew too large for its population to support so I'm not really at all surprised at the crisis. It's like when the stock market got larger than the actual value that it crashed so hard and took two years for it to recover.

[Beorn]

Not that I am a vindictive person or anything, but I would like to see the Irish make a public plea to the British before we gave it money. :D

[Foxy]

Not that I am a vindictive person or anything, but I would like to see the Irish make a public plea to the British before we gave it money. :D

O.O It sounds very bastard...
I would make them do a plea to the Pope. They are loyal, it is time for the Old Man to pay... :D

[Liffrea]

Hmm

So the Irish fought tooth and nail to kick the British out and then less than ninety years later sell their country at a knock down price, there is irony there somewhere.

The Irish always struck me as practical, seems they forgot a couple of lessons, no one gives you anything, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Time to pay.

[Murphy]

So the Irish fought tooth and nail to kick the British out and then less than ninety years later sell their country at a knock down price, there is irony there somewhere.

The British never left. They remained hidden in the banks and behind the scenes.

[SwordoftheVistula]

It's not any grand secret conspiracy, just the same thing as happened in the US (and apparently UK & Spain): temporary artificial inflation of the economy to create the illusion of prosperity, by means of holding down interest rates by the central bank. The middle classes support it because their home values rise (since mortgages are cheap), the working class supports it because it creates lots of high paying jobs in the building trades, and tax revenues go up allowing the government to buy off those without any useful skills by giving them large salaries as government employees. Of course, it all has to come to an end sometime.

I don't know why they bailed out their banks, after seeing our banks get bailed out and the economy still sucks and employment is still high.

Some of the economic growth was real though, getting lots of actual productive, high tech companies to build operations there and create actual productive jobs (Microsoft, Google, HP, etc). Hopefully they don't give in to EU pressure and raise taxes, or they can say goodbye to any hope of attracting real jobs, since unlike France & Germany they don't have a large amount of legacy industry to coast off of. If there's any sort of underhanded conspiracy planning going on, it's probably on the part of these central EU countries to get Ireland under their thumb and force these jobs back over to France etc.

[Loki]

Not that I am a vindictive person or anything, but I would like to see the Irish make a public plea to the British before we gave it money. :D

Actually, we're giving ourselves (the UK) money. Because that loan is directly going to plug debt to mostly UK banks. The Irish people will see none of it. In fact, they will pay us even more by means of interest on the loan. The alternative was that Ireland defaulted on that debt obligation and UK banks losing out. But Cameron would not stand for that, let alone the EU! It's useful to have a nation in financial slavery. Iceland was more clever and defaulted on the debt. They have no worries now, and can concentrate on rebuilding their wealth. They'll become rich again before the Irish.

[Albion]

The Irish economy grew too large for its population to support so I'm not really at all surprised at the crisis. It's like when the stock market got larger than the actual value that it crashed so hard and took two years for it to recover.

That is true.


The British never left. They remained hidden in the banks and behind the scenes.

When things go wrong - blame the British (aka English)... :rolleyes2:


Actually, we're giving ourselves (the UK) money. Because that loan is directly going to plug debt to mostly UK banks. The Irish people will see none of it. In fact, they will pay us even more by means of interest on the loan. The alternative was that Ireland defaulted on that debt obligation and UK banks losing out. But Cameron would not stand for that, let alone the EU! It's useful to have a nation in financial slavery. Iceland was more clever and defaulted on the debt. They have no worries now, and can concentrate on rebuilding their wealth. They'll become rich again before the Irish.

Yes, if Ireland doesn't get lent money it'd hurt us as well.

[Loki]

Alarming comments from CNN (http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/29/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm):



Ireland's government is carrying out severe budget cuts in an effort to curb its debt. Ireland's deficit already accounts for about 12% of its entire gross domestic product, but will nearly triple to 32% of its GDP with the bailout -- a cause for concern, some economists say.

"The Irish bailout is like Irish coffee but without the coffee -- very strong 'medicine,'" economist Robert Brusca of FAO Economics said in a research note, referring to Ireland's burgeoning deficit. "This particular formulation may be too strong."

[The Lawspeaker]

How is the situation in Ireland at the moment ?

[Albion]

How is the situation in Ireland at the moment ?

About the same as in Britain - miserable. Cuts, lack of money, unemployment, gloomy outlook for job hunters and young people.
It'll be like this for years to come yet. :( At least I have some work though at the moment. Work is there if you're willing to travel vast distances and work at the most strenuous, physically demanding and at the same time poorly paid work possible such as myself.

[antonio]

What it had been happen all around Europe with wellfare state is plain mad. I've just read in a Spanish newspaper than some Greeks are suposedly infected themselves with AIDS to get the 700€/month subsidy. For God sake what would be a nice salary on second world countries like Argentine (and even in Portugal) is being payed in Greece for not to work! Well, the probe is something crazy is the people willingly infected with a letal virus not so long ago.

[The Lawspeaker]

What it had been happen all around Europe with wellfare state is plain mad. I've just read in a Spanish newspaper than some Greeks are suposedly infected themselves with AIDS to get the 700€/month subsidy. For God sake what would be a nice salary on second world countries like Argentine (and even in Portugal) is being payed in Greece for not to work! Well, the probe is something crazy is the people willingly infected with a letal virus not so long ago.
Holy shiii... can you link me to the article and google translate it so it can be posted ?

[Siberyak]

European Nationalists need to realize that Economic Problems can be a golden opportunity for us. We can use this to our advantage.

[Albion]

European Nationalists need to realize that Economic Problems can be a golden opportunity for us. We can use this to our advantage.

What? By crashing our economies, reducing ourselves to poverty to get rid of Jews and third-worlders, is that what you are thinking? :rolleyes2:

Maybe I could except us being similar to Poland or Czechia in economy, but not say Bolivia or somewhere in Africa.

I don't think it's a good idea. If it happens it will happen regardless, if it doesn't then the status quo remains.

[Siberyak]

What? By crashing our economies, reducing ourselves to poverty to get rid of Jews and third-worlders, is that what you are thinking? :rolleyes2:

Maybe I could except us being similar to Poland or Czechia in economy, but not say Bolivia or somewhere in Africa.

I don't think it's a good idea. If it happens it will happen regardless, if it doesn't then the status quo remains.

If that's what it takes to save Europe then so be it. It will have to get worse before it gets better.

[antonio]

Holy shiii... can you link me to the article and google translate it so it can be posted ?

I manage to find the original source:

http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/a-greek-tragedy-in-health/

Plain bizarre. Im now into thinking that EU should be at control to stop it all that public hemorrage of money, specially when we're talking about a country not preciselly productive and efficient. System is not good but one thing is for sure: wellfare state (let's call it electoral market) is what is collapsing the system.

Just my conclusion: it's Socialdemocracy by its Frankenstein monster called wellfare state what is rotting to the bones Europe's economy and, what is worse, morality.

[The Lawspeaker]

I manage to find the original source:

http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/a-greek-tragedy-in-health/

Plain bizarre. Im now into thinking that EU should be at control to stop it all that public hemorrage of money, specially when we're talking about a country not preciselly productive and efficient. System is not good but one thing is for sure: wellfare state (let's call it electoral market) is what is collapsing the system.
Good god almighty... Nah the welfare state is not the issue as people would have done so anyway as life doesn't have much meaning for those that are poor.

Blaming the welfare state while the big wigs run off with billions is unfair.

[antonio]

Blaming the welfare state while the big wigs run off with billions is unfair.

Maybe. But welfare state at crisis can forcefully not be the same offered at the good times. And talking about financial system aids, let's face the real deal: banks falling is whole system falling with no studied alternative afterwards. And that's scary.

[The Lawspeaker]

Maybe. But welfare state at crisis can forcefully not be the same offered at the good times. And talking about financial system aids, let's face the real deal: banks falling is whole system falling with no studied alternative afterwards. And that's scary.
No it isn't. Those banks should fall. That's what happened in Iceland and they are getting back on their feet already.

[antonio]

No it isn't. Those banks should fall. That's what happened in Iceland and they are getting back on their feet already.


OK. To what extreme should those banks fall? To the point of clients losing their deposits? For not to talk about Iceland: I suppose it has become into a kind of international paria like Iran or North Korea. They profited (the whole people via taxes) from a cheat financial sector (offering 10% interests) based in their credibility as a country I dont know exactly based on what (on being succesful whale fishers?) and now they vote for assuming no responsability at all. That's not fair.

[The Lawspeaker]

OK. To what extreme should those banks fall? To the point of clients losing their deposits? For not to talk about Iceland: I suppose it has become into a kind of international paria like Iran or North Korea. They profited (the whole people via taxes) from a cheat financial sector (offering 10% interests) based in their credibility as a country I dont know exactly based on what (on being succesful whale fishers?) and now they vote for assuming no responsability at all. That's not fair.
I don't believe that Iceland has fallen into a deep hole. The only solution is: let the banks fall and only compensate the account holders and/or encourage them to leave for another bank. That's what I did: I said "screw you !" to my old bank and went to one that is financially conservative.

I find it funny when "libertarians" or conservatives are against welfare. I am against cooperate welfare. The banks fucked up: let them fall (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/may/18/us-economy-bank-bailout). At least the poor cannot be blamed for this crisis.