Tollense Valley Bronze Age battle: ancient DNA

[Peterski]

http://eurogenes.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/tollense-valley-bronze-age-battle.html


The 21 samples available to this study stem from skeletal remains found in the Tollense valley in north eastern Germany and date to the bronze age (ca. 3200 BP), except for sample WEZ16, which dates to the neolithic (ca. 5000 BP) and was found in a burial context. Although several samples from the Welzin site have been dated using the C 14 method, from the samples used for this study only the neolithic WEZ16 (2960BC ±66) and the Bronze Age sample WEZ15 (1007BC ±102) were radiocarbon dated. All individuals except WEZ16 were found in a non burial context, widely dispersed and dis-articulated [48] along the river bank of the Tollense river.

...

The PCA in Figure 4.24 shows modern Eurasian individuals in grey and ancient individuals in colour according to their assigned population (for details on the modern populations see Figure A.48). The majority of Welzin individuals fall within the variation of modern populations from the northern central part of Europe (compare Figure A.48), with hunter gatherers, the Yamnaya and the LBK populations appearing on the outer range of PC1 and PC2.

...

Outliers from the Welzin cluster are: WEZ16, which falls closer to the Sardinians and neolithic LBK along PC2, WEZ54, which clusters with the Basques and also fall closer to LBK individuals along PC2, WEZ57, which falls in between the former individual and the Welzin cluster, and WEZ56, which separates from the main cluster of Welzin individuals along PC2 in the opposite direction as the former three, towards the Corded Ware or Yamnaya.

...

The ancient population that share the most drift with the Welzin group are WHG and the SHG population followed by the Unetice, the Bell Beaker and the Corded Wear. Starting with the Unetice the following f3 values fall in the range of the standard error of each other. The average difference between two consecutive f3 values is 0.0021 ± 0.0024 and the average standard error in each f3 value is 0.0037 ± 0.0007. The most similar modern populations are the Polish, Austrians and the Scottish.

...

Any interpretation regarding possible parties that might have been involved in the conflict in the Tollense valley ∼ 3200 ago can only be speculative with regards to the here shown data. With the resolution given here, an educated guess for different involved parties could be, that both parties were relatively local and more closely related than any ancient DNA study was able to separate so far. Maybe similar to people from Hessen versus people from Rhineland-Palatinate in modern Germany.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pSFcxgwJXso/We1zQSb6PfI/AAAAAAAAGJ0/2gF9-1RbbwUjfUVKsDsU1aovc0aAhKF8wCLcBGAs/s1600/Tollense_fallen_PCA.png

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pSFcxgwJXso/We1zQSb6PfI/AAAAAAAAGJ0/2gF9-1RbbwUjfUVKsDsU1aovc0aAhKF8wCLcBGAs/s1600/Tollense_fallen_PCA.png

[Kelmendasi]

Haplogroups?

[Peterski]

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tGCJMNhmH70/We1zazE_A_I/AAAAAAAAGJ4/YbohFTJqjZMVWE6bhSUKnjF_B8vxRZFlACLcBGAs/s1600/Tollense_fallen_F3.png


Haplogroups?

No idea. Maybe they had R1a? Considering that autosomally they were similar to modern Poles.

[Peterski]

This study proves that Poles are indigenous to the Elbe-Vistula region since the Bronze Age:

https://publications.ub.uni-mainz.de/theses/frontdoor.php?source_opus=100001279&la=en

https://publications.ub.uni-mainz.de/theses/volltexte/2017/100001279/pdf/100001279.pdf

[Peterski]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoYj4BZdB1w

[Lucas]

Two PCA combined, first with WEZ, second with modern clusters. Sorry but Polish cluster (blue) is on the north.

https://s1.postimg.org/7h8suzlydp/welzin-thetruth.jpg

[Peterski]

I guess only GEDmatch results will show who those warriors really were.

PCA graphs from this study suck, because one PCA shows them HG-shifted (more HG ancestry than modern North Europeans) and the other PCA shows them clustering close to modern South Europeans.

[Lucas]

But on both Polish cluster is far away from them en masse. If F3 is only to measure drift? Not for population connections? Usually I don't see F3 plots discussed only PCA.

[Peterski]

But on both Polish cluster is far away from them en masse. If F3 is only to measure drift? Not for population connections? Usually I don't see F3 plots discussed only PCA.

F3 statistics show that they had a lot of shared drift with modern Poles, but on PCA graphs most of them don't cluster with Poles (only few individuals cluster close to Poles). What does it mean? A population ancestral to Poles but not the only one (modern Poles are a mix of Welzin-like people + other groups)?

F3 stats explained: http://gaworkshop.readthedocs.io/en/latest/contents/06_f3/f3.html

Welzin/Tollense samples:

https://seafile.rlp.net/d/2ac8729845/

https://s1.postimg.org/9fn91a3j7j/index11.png

https://s1.postimg.org/9j6uyzwtn3/index12.png

https://s1.postimg.org/6drd022mfz/index13.png

https://s1.postimg.org/3x54l4vy9b/index14.png

[Peterski]

These ones have North-Eastern affinities and are similar to modern Poles:

Sample - GEDmatch kit (uploaded by mlukas):

WEZ15 - Z468191
WEZ58 - Z594501
WEZ83 - Z468191

WEZ51, WEZ56 and WEZ24 should also be North-Eastern (based on the other PCA).

Based on F3 statistics, these ones have the highest affinity to Poles:

WEZ15 (affinity to Poles confirmed by PCA)
WEZ58 (affinity to Poles confirmed by PCA)
WEZ51 (affinity to Poles confirmed by PCA)
WEZ56 (affinity to Poles confirmed by PCA)

WEZ64 (not confirmed by PCA)
WEZ74 (not confirmed by PCA)
WEZ53 (not confirmed by PCA)

WEZ24 - Finnish (so also North-Eastern but not Polish-like)

[Peterski]

Why are these two PCAs so different from each other?:

https://publications.ub.uni-mainz.de/theses/volltexte/2017/100001279/pdf/100001279.pdf

The first PCA is in Figure 3.20. The 2nd PCA is in Figures 4.24 and A.48.

The 2nd PCA shows that WEZ56 and WEZ51 are relatively close to Poles.

The 1st PCA shows that WEZ15, WEZ58 and WEZ83 are close to Poles.

==============

The 2nd PCA:

https://i.imgur.com/uhkOGir.png

The 1st PCA:

https://i.imgur.com/yWmfqiJ.jpg

==========================

WEZ56 is actually closer to Lithuanians than to Poles, if we take a look here (does it mean that Balts or Proto-Balts were present as far west as Mecklenburg-Vorpmmern during the Bronze Age?):

https://s1.postimg.org/74gnl21s3x/Bez-nazwy-1.jpg

[Peterski]

WEZ15 in Eurogenes K13:

Kit Z468191

Admix Results (sorted):

# Population Percent
1 Baltic 42.56
2 North_Atlantic 35.12
3 West_Med 18.04
4 South_Asian 1.59
5 Oceanian 1.58
6 East_Med 1.12

Single Population Sharing:

# Population (source) Distance
1 Polish 10.17
2 South_Polish 10.49
3 Ukrainian 10.97
4 Ukrainian_Lviv 11.53
5 Southwest_Finnish 11.98
6 East_German 12.3
7 Estonian_Polish 12.97
8 Russian_Smolensk 13.07
9 Belorussian 13.38
10 Estonian 13.41
11 Croatian 13.87
12 North_Swedish 14.54
13 Austrian 14.87
14 Southwest_Russian 14.87
15 Finnish 15
16 Hungarian 15.16
17 Lithuanian 15.57
18 Ukrainian_Belgorod 15.64
19 Kargopol_Russian 16.51
20 East_Finnish 16.92

[cosmoo]

This study proves that Poles are indigenous to the Elbe-Vistula region since the Bronze Age:

https://publications.ub.uni-mainz.de/theses/frontdoor.php?source_opus=100001279&la=en

https://publications.ub.uni-mainz.de/theses/volltexte/2017/100001279/pdf/100001279.pdf

Largest part of the Poland was settled after it was depopulated from previous inhabitants (East Germanic tribes).

[Peterski]

from previous inhabitants (East Germanic tribes).

There were no any East Germanic tribes in Bronze Age Poland.

They came to Poland much later, during the Iron Age.

These genomes are from a Bronze Age battlefield at Tollense:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tollense#Presumed_Tollense_battle_site


Largest part of the Poland was settled after it was depopulated

Depopulation is assumed because archeological findings from this era are rare.

But recently there have been new findings which show continuity of settlement.

[cosmoo]

There were no any East Germanic tribes in Bronze Age Poland.

They came to Poland much later, during the Iron Age.

Of course there weren't, but continuity between Bronze Age and modern Poland can hardly be called unbroken.

[Peterski]

continuity between Bronze Age and modern Poland can hardly be called unbroken.

Actually in the last 15-20 years there have been a lot of new archeological findings.

New Migration Period settlements were discovered during construction of highways.

So this so called "depopulation" was nowhere near complete.

Just a large drop of population size, but not total depopulation.

[Peterski]

And for these who claim that modern Polish R1b was brought by the German Ostsiedlung after 1250-1300 AD, rather than being indigenous to Poland, here is a surprise. Sample from Early Medieval Gniezno (the first capital city of Poland), dated to 1000-1200 AD, has positive calls for R1b:

https://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/data/view/PRJNA354503

Gniezno (1000AD-1200AD):

Gnie1 http://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/data/view/SAMN06046900
Gnie2 http://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/data/view/SAMN06046901

Y-DNA calls for one of these Gniezno samples:

L150.1/PF6274.1/S351.1 = R1b1a2
PF6274.1/L150.1/S351.1 = R1b1a2
S351.1/L150.1/PF6274.1 = R1b1a2

So we have R1b in Poland long before any German settlements.

========================

Summary of Y-DNA from Early Medieval Polish samples (tested so far):

ME_7, Markowice (1000-1200 AD), I1a2a2a5-Y5384
GO_1, Gniezno (1000-1200 AD), R1b1a2-L150.1
NA_13, Niemcza, (900-1000 AD), I2a1b2-L621
NA_18, Niemcza, (900-1000 AD), J2a1a-L26

I'm surprised by lack of R1a. But these are only 4 samples, only the beginning:

https://www.ncn.gov.pl/finansowanie-nauki/przyklady-projektow/figlerowicz?language=en

https://s4.postimg.org/3n9kl6d5p/mapa.jpg

[Lucas]

Why are these two PCAs so different from each other?:

https://publications.ub.uni-mainz.de/theses/volltexte/2017/100001279/pdf/100001279.pdf

The first PCA is in Figure 3.20. The 2nd PCA is in Figures 4.24 and A.48.

The 2nd PCA shows that WEZ56 and WEZ51 are relatively close to Poles.

The 1st PCA shows that WEZ15, WEZ58 and WEZ83 are close to Poles.

==============

The 2nd PCA:

https://i.imgur.com/uhkOGir.png

The 1st PCA:

https://i.imgur.com/yWmfqiJ.jpg

==========================

WEZ56 is actually closer to Lithuanians than to Poles, if we take a look here (does it mean that Balts or Proto-Balts were present as far west as Mecklenburg-Vorpmmern during the Bronze Age?):

https://s1.postimg.org/74gnl21s3x/Bez-nazwy-1.jpg



It's very simple. One PCA is only with those pops which are also tested by F3. Second PCA is with bigger dataset from Hoffmanova.

[Peterski]

K36 similarities to modern populations:

WEZ58 - https://s6.postimg.org/h9v2lt56n/WEZ58.png

WEZ15 - https://s6.postimg.org/cnyydgbxr/WEZ15.png

[Lucas]

For comparison WEZ83

Correlation map (Tolan map is useless in such cases of unusual percentages, and show even results). Althought I must admit top correlation is very low (ususally is about 0.9 for living persons).

google map: https://fusiontables.google.com/embedviz?q=select+col39%3E%3E1+from+1Uh6shD0P1f_L3 q0cv8tU0c1wBe83SFdj9OqHvYhw&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=54.05267384807858&lng=10.417780000000008&t=1&z=4&l=col39%3E%3E1&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML


https://s1.postimg.org/2k6h006fb1/Bez-nazwy-3.jpg

[Peterski]

So the average of 21 warriors looks mixed Slavic-Germanic. But does it make sense to create one average from all warrios, considering that they were from 2 different, opposing armies? It makes sense to create one average only if it was a "civil war". But if each army consisted of people from a different ethnic group, then we should expect genetic differences between them. These 21 warriors should be plotted on a PCA and we will see if they form 2 distinct clusters - "western" and "eastern" - or one "central" cluster.

Something tells me that there will be 2 distinct cluster, because WEZ83 looks fully Germanic. If the average of 21 is Slavo-Germanic, but some look fully Germanic, then some must look fully Balto-Slavic.

Average in K36 Eurogenes for 21 WEZians (as I wrote above, I think there should be 2 averages, because those warriors were from two opposing armies and were killing each other):

Amerindian 0,11
Arabian 0,26
Armenian 0,00
Basque 3,20
Central_African 0,01
Central_Euro 6,01
East_African 0,20
East_Asian 0,00
East_Balkan 2,67
East_Central_Asian 0,09
East_Central_Euro 18,20
East_Med 0,38
Eastern_Euro 7,99
Fennoscandian 7,01
French 5,93
Iberian 11,21
Indo0Chinese 0,00
Italian 6,16
Malayan 0,00
Near_Eastern 0,05
North_African 0,31
North_Atlantic 9,91
North_Caucasian 0,45
North_Sea 11,52
Northeast_African 0,18
Oceanian 0,13
Omotic 0,09
Pygmy 0,04
Siberian 0,00
South_Asian 0,00
South_Central_Asian 0,01
South_Chinese 0,00
Volga0Ural 3,14
West_African 0,37
West_Caucasian 0,28
West_Med 4,11

[Peterski]

Phenotype SNPs:

https://genetiker.wordpress.com/2017/10/25/phenotype-snps-for-bronze-age-german-warriors/

[Peterski]

Isotopes suggest, that there were two major groups of warriors, of different origin:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12520-017-0529-y

"Abstract

Although the Bronze Age is best known for its remarkable metal weapons, there is little evidence of conflict. Traumatic wounds in human skeletal remains are rare, and there have been few recognized scenes of warfare such as those known from later periods. Recent discoveries, however, have revealed evidence of a major battle in a small valley in the northeast of Germany, some 3250 years ago. Both military equipment and human and animal remains have been encountered in surveys and excavations along almost 3 km of the Tollense Valley. More than 130 human individuals have been recovered in the investigations, for the most, part young men between 20 and 40 years of age. In addition, horse bones have been found among the human remains in the riverbed and banks. This study reports on the isotopic proveniencing of the excavated remains utilizing strontium, lead, oxygen, and carbon isotopes to learn about place of origin and past diet. Two major groups can be distinguished in the isotope data, along with evidence for different homelands for some of the individuals who died in the Tollense Valley."

[Rethel]

Of course there weren't, but continuity between Bronze Age and modern Poland can hardly be called unbroken.

Some were unbroken, some were newcomers. What big deal? Why
do you have to generalize for every single person... it has no sense.

[Rethel]

Early Medieval Gniezno (the first capital city of Poland), dated to 1000-1200 AD, has positive calls for R1b:

Could be Piastowic...

[Rethel]

This study proves that Poles are indigenous to the Elbe-Vistula region since the Bronze Age:

Don;t be a pietrzak. Au is. Some people are.
But not Poles. And probably not Slavs.

[Tschaikisten]

OCA2, rs1800414, Mongoloid light skin

This one will be R1.
https://genetiker.wordpress.com/2017/10/25/phenotype-snps-for-bronze-age-german-warriors/

[Peterski]

Nobody has Mongoloid light skin in that sample. :p

They are all TT (and derived allele for this is G).

[Lucas]

PCA based on K36 averages of moderns and WEZ samples.

https://s1.postimg.org/9owld20c3h/pca2.png

[Lucas]

OCA2, rs1800414, Mongoloid light skin

This one will be R1.
https://genetiker.wordpress.com/2017/10/25/phenotype-snps-for-bronze-age-german-warriors/

It's shitposting from Genetiker. The have such small snp counts (2000 - 20 000) that it's impossible to predict how they look.

[Peterski]

It's shitposting from Genetiker.

Also Genetiker says that he didn't find Y-SNPs but you say that there are some?

[Lucas]

Also Genetiker says that he didn't find Y-SNPs but you say that there are some?

Before conversion to format readable by Gedmatch (in bim file). Maybe not in all. I'll check later.

[Dick]

It's shitposting from Genetiker. The have such small snp counts (2000 - 20 000) that it's impossible to predict how they look.


Who is Genetiker and how come they have Gedmatch kit #'s with low SNPs. What's the point.

[Lucas]

Who is Genetiker and how come they have Gedmatch kit #'s with low SNPs. What's the point.

Guy who analyzing Tollense genomes on his blog and make predictions about their phenotype alleles. But those genoems are very bad coveraged. So such predictions are meaningless.

[Dick]

Guy who analyzing Tollense genomes on his blog and make predictions about their phenotype alleles. But those genoems are very bad coveraged. So such predictions are meaningless.

"Genetiker" sounds like a pseudonym for an evil scientist in a sci-fi novel or movie.

[Rethel]

Y desperatly needed.