Septentrional
12-30-2010, 05:57 PM
I view the history of the world through two basic prisms: Race and Ideas.
Ideas can change the world but race shapes them.
I've read Michael Hart's book about the history of the world from a perspective mainly based in race where he studied a lot of different peoples throughout history and noted that it usually did not require a lot of people of high intellect to rule (and indeed conquer) a foreign people - just think about the whites and Africa.
Still, today's policies of mass immigration and multiculturalism is deeply worrying as the Western world might fall into the path of Portugal, which had a lively European stock once upon a time but when they got a lot of wealthy colonies and some began to pick spouses from the natives, there was a clear lack of warning against this behaviour. The result was extensive crossbreeding where the IQ and the features of the peoples were drastically lowered.
Britain stood in sharp contrast to this where even 300 africans from Sierra Leone were treated as a public health danger and roundly deported back to Africa. Anyone who also bred with an African woman was socially shunned and the children were decried as 'halfbreeds'.
It is clear that some countries, like the U.S., may be past the point of no return where the country will increasingly become a Latin American bananarepublic. Europe's fate is still in the decider and where the trends are looking up.
Still, without a major crisis, Europes fate will be the same.
So what could this crisis be?
Peak Oil is a concept some of you may have heard of. To put it short, the entire world economy is based on cheap energy. Energy is very tightly corrolated with economic growth. And we power our planet on fossil fuels, as you all know. For all the hype about renewable energy, it's still a pipe dream to make the Earth self-sufficient and make economic growth sustainable.
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/3978/worldprimaryenergysuppl.gif
The lion's share of this fossil fuel mix is oil. Oil is making the world, literally. Medications are made out of oil, although very refined petrolium, but still. So is plastic, computer parts. Even make-up.
But perhaps most critically, oil is fundamental to our food production. You need cheap oil for both the production, harvesting and transportation of food. With very expensive oil comes less production or at least severely delayed production which results in food riots. We already saw this in 2008 when the oil price was spiking. We are now soon spiking as well. Just a few years ago, 40$ per oilbarell was seen as "expensive". Now 90$ is the new normal.
Since oil is so central to our energysupply(not just as a transportation fuel), there is an extremely tight link between growth and oil production. The recession in 1980 in the U.S. was caused by the second oil shock as Iran tightened it's supplies as a response to the attempt to rescure the hostages in Iran, it wasn't inflation or anything else. The same was true in the early 70s in the first oil shock. Take a look at the close relationship:
http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/3666/stilladdicted.gif
So are we running out? Well, no, not exactly. Peak Oil is not about running out, it's about passing a peak of production. A maximal output possible after going, inevitably, downhill. Oil, after all, is a finite resource. It's almost beyond explaining that all things which are finite have a limit of their maximum possible production until they fall into irreversible decline.
The problem is that especially China and India are having two deadly symptoms: A) They're both very populous. B) They're both growing at a brisk pace.
Even if the Western world is getting more efficient, it's more than eaten up by the verocious appetite of these two countries. As I previously wrote: economic growth requires energy. We're still deeply addicted to Oil as our main energy source, which means more oil is needed.
Now here is the dealbreaker: We're passed or at Peak.
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PeakOil1.png
Notice that it's almost 2011 now and I've looked at the numbers and we dont have a higher production today than in 2008, it's slightly lower(although not as a low as this prediction).
This is why oil is now more expensive. It's at 90 $ per barrel. Goldman Sachs has said that this year will mean much higher oil prices - again.
Shell's ex-CEO has even went out and said that gas will cost 5$ a gallon by 2012.
http://parkerspitzer.blogs.cnn.com/2010/12/28/hofmeister-gas-will-cost-5-a-gallon-by-2012/
Can we reverse the tide? Well, no. It takes about 10-15 years for new oil fields to be at maximum capacity. The problem is that we have a chronic lack of new oil fields, before the maximum production capacity is reached there needs to be a maximum discovery capacity.
http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/5456/productionfollowsdiscov.gif
And even mitigation attempts takes time.
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/218/hirschbestcasemitigatio.gif
Since China and India won't stop their economic growth because we ask nicely, this means there will be classic resource wars as well as severe stress. Africa, as always, will be hardest hit. Large parts of the Middle-East too, considering that the OPEC-countries need more and more oil to burn for themselves and the rest of the world will be able to outbid, say, Jordan or Syria. The Arab world has nothing except oil and is also in a dire situation water-wise. This will prompt mass migrations Northwards, to Europe.
Mexico's federal budget is made up out of 40 % of oil revenues. The problem that they have is that their oil fields, especially the largest Cantarell field, is already in decline, or post-peak as the term is.
The state is already a joke with the Mafia running large swaths of the country. Expect a similar mass migration Northwards, this time to the U.S.
As the situation won't have any quick fixes(including any QE2's or any other financial wizardry from the Fed or other central banks, this is imposed by nature not Man), and mass famine, mass migrations will continue in their intensity, it becomes inevitable, in my view, of racial wars coupled with resource wars.
Here's a final graph to show how much of the world's population is kept fed thanks to what kinds of fossil fuels:
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/5904/fossilfuelsallowedhighe.gif
Even disrupting this slightly means millions will die, and this is just from the natural side of things. You can never factor in extra deaths in racial and resource wars that will follow irregardless.
This is also an opportunity for the West to rid itself of Africans and non-Western immigrants from the Middle-East and beyond.
Naturally, I'm not advocating fullblown genocide but since people will die in the West as everywhere else, in just 5 years' time and onwards, I see it as inevitable that in a place like Europe, there will be muslim-christian clashes but these might spread between immigrant communities as well as ethnic Britons, ethnic Germans and so on against most(if not all) else. Add to this the mass migrations of starved Africans and a political elite obsessed with national suicde, and it is hard not to see serious social upheaval on the horizon.
I am a bit skeptical about America though, since it is already so late. The Whites are barely 60 % there. Europe, on the other hand, has the holocaust hanging over it's neck. On the other hand, reading the genetic and genelogical history of the world shows over and over how you don't need large amounts of intellectually superior people to conquer large swaths of inferior ones. What ultimately decides is not really the opposition but the willingness to kill and conquer. Genocidal imperialism is what once made the West great before it got soft. Is it time for a return?
Ideas can change the world but race shapes them.
I've read Michael Hart's book about the history of the world from a perspective mainly based in race where he studied a lot of different peoples throughout history and noted that it usually did not require a lot of people of high intellect to rule (and indeed conquer) a foreign people - just think about the whites and Africa.
Still, today's policies of mass immigration and multiculturalism is deeply worrying as the Western world might fall into the path of Portugal, which had a lively European stock once upon a time but when they got a lot of wealthy colonies and some began to pick spouses from the natives, there was a clear lack of warning against this behaviour. The result was extensive crossbreeding where the IQ and the features of the peoples were drastically lowered.
Britain stood in sharp contrast to this where even 300 africans from Sierra Leone were treated as a public health danger and roundly deported back to Africa. Anyone who also bred with an African woman was socially shunned and the children were decried as 'halfbreeds'.
It is clear that some countries, like the U.S., may be past the point of no return where the country will increasingly become a Latin American bananarepublic. Europe's fate is still in the decider and where the trends are looking up.
Still, without a major crisis, Europes fate will be the same.
So what could this crisis be?
Peak Oil is a concept some of you may have heard of. To put it short, the entire world economy is based on cheap energy. Energy is very tightly corrolated with economic growth. And we power our planet on fossil fuels, as you all know. For all the hype about renewable energy, it's still a pipe dream to make the Earth self-sufficient and make economic growth sustainable.
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/3978/worldprimaryenergysuppl.gif
The lion's share of this fossil fuel mix is oil. Oil is making the world, literally. Medications are made out of oil, although very refined petrolium, but still. So is plastic, computer parts. Even make-up.
But perhaps most critically, oil is fundamental to our food production. You need cheap oil for both the production, harvesting and transportation of food. With very expensive oil comes less production or at least severely delayed production which results in food riots. We already saw this in 2008 when the oil price was spiking. We are now soon spiking as well. Just a few years ago, 40$ per oilbarell was seen as "expensive". Now 90$ is the new normal.
Since oil is so central to our energysupply(not just as a transportation fuel), there is an extremely tight link between growth and oil production. The recession in 1980 in the U.S. was caused by the second oil shock as Iran tightened it's supplies as a response to the attempt to rescure the hostages in Iran, it wasn't inflation or anything else. The same was true in the early 70s in the first oil shock. Take a look at the close relationship:
http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/3666/stilladdicted.gif
So are we running out? Well, no, not exactly. Peak Oil is not about running out, it's about passing a peak of production. A maximal output possible after going, inevitably, downhill. Oil, after all, is a finite resource. It's almost beyond explaining that all things which are finite have a limit of their maximum possible production until they fall into irreversible decline.
The problem is that especially China and India are having two deadly symptoms: A) They're both very populous. B) They're both growing at a brisk pace.
Even if the Western world is getting more efficient, it's more than eaten up by the verocious appetite of these two countries. As I previously wrote: economic growth requires energy. We're still deeply addicted to Oil as our main energy source, which means more oil is needed.
Now here is the dealbreaker: We're passed or at Peak.
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PeakOil1.png
Notice that it's almost 2011 now and I've looked at the numbers and we dont have a higher production today than in 2008, it's slightly lower(although not as a low as this prediction).
This is why oil is now more expensive. It's at 90 $ per barrel. Goldman Sachs has said that this year will mean much higher oil prices - again.
Shell's ex-CEO has even went out and said that gas will cost 5$ a gallon by 2012.
http://parkerspitzer.blogs.cnn.com/2010/12/28/hofmeister-gas-will-cost-5-a-gallon-by-2012/
Can we reverse the tide? Well, no. It takes about 10-15 years for new oil fields to be at maximum capacity. The problem is that we have a chronic lack of new oil fields, before the maximum production capacity is reached there needs to be a maximum discovery capacity.
http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/5456/productionfollowsdiscov.gif
And even mitigation attempts takes time.
http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/218/hirschbestcasemitigatio.gif
Since China and India won't stop their economic growth because we ask nicely, this means there will be classic resource wars as well as severe stress. Africa, as always, will be hardest hit. Large parts of the Middle-East too, considering that the OPEC-countries need more and more oil to burn for themselves and the rest of the world will be able to outbid, say, Jordan or Syria. The Arab world has nothing except oil and is also in a dire situation water-wise. This will prompt mass migrations Northwards, to Europe.
Mexico's federal budget is made up out of 40 % of oil revenues. The problem that they have is that their oil fields, especially the largest Cantarell field, is already in decline, or post-peak as the term is.
The state is already a joke with the Mafia running large swaths of the country. Expect a similar mass migration Northwards, this time to the U.S.
As the situation won't have any quick fixes(including any QE2's or any other financial wizardry from the Fed or other central banks, this is imposed by nature not Man), and mass famine, mass migrations will continue in their intensity, it becomes inevitable, in my view, of racial wars coupled with resource wars.
Here's a final graph to show how much of the world's population is kept fed thanks to what kinds of fossil fuels:
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/5904/fossilfuelsallowedhighe.gif
Even disrupting this slightly means millions will die, and this is just from the natural side of things. You can never factor in extra deaths in racial and resource wars that will follow irregardless.
This is also an opportunity for the West to rid itself of Africans and non-Western immigrants from the Middle-East and beyond.
Naturally, I'm not advocating fullblown genocide but since people will die in the West as everywhere else, in just 5 years' time and onwards, I see it as inevitable that in a place like Europe, there will be muslim-christian clashes but these might spread between immigrant communities as well as ethnic Britons, ethnic Germans and so on against most(if not all) else. Add to this the mass migrations of starved Africans and a political elite obsessed with national suicde, and it is hard not to see serious social upheaval on the horizon.
I am a bit skeptical about America though, since it is already so late. The Whites are barely 60 % there. Europe, on the other hand, has the holocaust hanging over it's neck. On the other hand, reading the genetic and genelogical history of the world shows over and over how you don't need large amounts of intellectually superior people to conquer large swaths of inferior ones. What ultimately decides is not really the opposition but the willingness to kill and conquer. Genocidal imperialism is what once made the West great before it got soft. Is it time for a return?