Split: discussion regarding Russia's future

[Loki]

The average Russian is very anti-Western and anti-American.

Can you blame them? Anti-Russian sentiment is so evident in the Western media, if I were a Russian I'd have been paranoid as well. What the ordinary Russian does not fail to notice, is NATO encircling it, talk of missile shields in Poland, the US arming Georgia to the teeth, Russia being prevented from joining the WTO, America meddling in Russian domestic matters, etc etc. It is no wonder that the West (especially UK and America) is viewed with suspicion.

As for Russia being allies with Venezuela, China, etc ... it is basically being forced into that by being sidelined by Europe and the US. It didn't have to be that way. Any friends are better than no friends.

[Joe McCarthy]

Can you blame them? Anti-Russian sentiment is so evident in the Western media, if I were a Russian I'd have been paranoid as well. What the ordinary Russian does not fail to notice, is NATO encircling it, talk of missile shields in Poland, the US arming Georgia to the teeth, Russia being prevented from joining the WTO, America meddling in Russian domestic matters, etc etc. It is no wonder that the West (especially UK and America) is viewed with suspicion.

As for Russia being allies with Venezuela, China, etc ... it is basically being forced into that by being sidelined by Europe and the US. It didn't have to be that way. Any friends are better than no friends.

To some extent I agree with what you're saying here, though I think the anti-Western thinking of Russia is much deeper than post-Cold War or even Cold War distrust. Russian-Western distance goes back centuries. They are literally a different civilization, despite being white, with all of the complications that implies.

Still, despite the many problems on both sides, I have some hope that eventually the rise of China will bring about a recognition of a common threat that will unite us. My experience though is that for now at least, Russians are not taking the China threat nearly as seriously as they should. In a way it is similar to the US myopia toward Mexico.

[Loki]

My experience though is that for now at least, Russians are not taking the China threat nearly as seriously as they should. In a way it is similar to the US myopia toward Mexico.

I think Russia is more aware of it than anyone else, since it's Russia's neighbour. But, are you suggesting that Russia be unfriendly towards China? What good will it do them? China is a very important trading partner to Russia, it imports most of its oil for starters. Russians would be foolish to promote enmity with China. Isn't there something like peaceful co-existence?

[Joe McCarthy]

I think Russia is more aware of it than anyone else, since it's Russia's neighbour. But, are you suggesting that Russia be unfriendly towards China? What good will it do them? China is a very important trading partner to Russia, it imports most of its oil for starters. Russians would be foolish to promote enmity with China. Isn't there something like peaceful co-existence?

China and Russia were enemies for most of the Cold War, and though it got ugly a few times, it never flared up beyond border conflict. China though teaches its children that Russia stole part of Siberia from China, and China is steadily colonizing Siberia. I don't think Russia will have any choice but to view China as a hostile regime. To consider someone an ally under such circumstances is an exercise in self-delusion.

[Loki]

China though teaches its children that Russia stole part of Siberia from China,


Source please?



and China is steadily colonizing Siberia.


Can you please substantiate this with facts? I'm not disagreeing, but would like to see more evidence for that.



I don't think Russia will have any choice but to view China as a hostile regime. To consider someone an ally under such circumstances is an exercise in self-delusion.

I don't think any diplomats or economists would agree with you on that one. International geopolitics is not a video game. Neither Russia nor China would benefit from aggression toward each other, and anyone with an above-par intelligence knows that.

[Joe McCarthy]

Originally Posted by Loki
Source please?



Can you please substantiate this with facts? I'm not disagreeing, but would like to see more evidence for that.


Here is one article that deals with the teaching in schools, the demographic situation, etc.

http://www.thevanguard.org/thevanguard/other_writers/wheeler_jack/061102.shtml


I don't think any diplomats or economists would agree with you on that one. International geopolitics is not a video game. Neither Russia nor China would benefit from aggression toward each other, and anyone with an above-par intelligence knows that.

Unfortunately, few geopoliticians take immigration into account as the new form of warfare. Increasingly, hostile states don't so much openly attack each other as they promote the influx of their peoples into target countries. Indeed, the fact that sending countries work hard to get European states to take their immigrants is given too little attention.

[Loki]

Here is one article that deals with the teaching in schools, the demographic situation, etc.

http://www.thevanguard.org/thevanguard/other_writers/wheeler_jack/061102.shtml



The source does not look very reputable, nor does it seem to be objective in analysis.



Unfortunately, few geopoliticians take immigration into account as the new form of warfare. Increasingly, hostile states don't so much openly attack each other as they promote the influx of their peoples into target countries. Indeed, the fact that sending countries work hard to get European states to take their immigrants is given too little attention.

Do you really think immigration is a type of warfare, waged and planned behind the scenes by the immigrant source nations? This is ridiculous. Immigration is a personal thing, done for personal improvement reasons. They leave poor nations to look for a better life in richer nations. The blame for out-of-control immigration should rest squarely on the shoulders of the recipient countries who are incapable (or unwilling) of managing their own borders.

[Eldritch]

Can you please substantiate this with facts? I'm not disagreeing, but would like to see more evidence for that.


If memory serves, the chapter on Russia in Walter Laqueur's book The Last Days of Europe: Epitaph for an Old Continent features a fairly good basic rundown on how Russia is basically having to withdraw from Siberia. The Asian part of Russia is simply too big for them to handle with their plummeting demographics.

Unfortunately, I was unable to find an online summary or a review that deals with that part of the book.

And just to avoid any misunderstandings: I take no joy in this development. I wish it were not the case, but it is.

[Loki]

If memory serves, the chapter on Russia in Walter Laqueur's book The Last Days of Europe: Epitaph for an Old Continent features a fairly good basic rundown on how Russia is basically having to withdraw from Siberia. The Asian part of Russia is simply too big for them to handle with their plummeting demographics.

Unfortunately, I was unable to find an online summary or a review that deals with that part of the book.

And just to avoid any misunderstandings: I take no joy in this development. I wish it were not the case, but it is.

I think Russians are quite nationalistic and would never give away Siberia, with all its rich resources, to China. Unless of course America manages to install a puppet ruler like Kodorkhovski or Kasparov, which is very unlikely to happen anytime soon.

[Joe McCarthy]

Originally Posted by Loki
The source does not look very reputable, nor does it seem to be objective in analysis.


I wouldn't say that. Wheeler is generally regarded as the architect of the Reagan Doctrine - which was designed to oppose Soviet influence globally. He can't be accused of being a pro-Russia partisan who is likely to overstate the case.


Do you really think immigration is a type of warfare, waged and planned behind the scenes by the immigrant source nations? This is ridiculous.

Hmmm, take a look at this article for one:

http://www.americanpatrol.com/RECONQUISTA/GreatMexInvasDeMola820720.html

States like the KSA are also financing mosques in Europe. It is a form of colonization. Also, Qadhafi's comments on Turkey's EU accession should be weighed carefully, especially as it is clearly in the Islamic world's interests that Turkey, and Muslims, be in the EU:

http://www.algathafi.org/html-english/cat_03_04.htm

[Eldritch]

I think Russians are quite nationalistic and would never give away Siberia, with all its rich resources, to China.

....

No, absolutely not. They'll hang on to it with the skin of their teeth, for as long as they possibly can. Russians may be a lot of things, but the one thing they are not is cowardly, or defeatist, or inclined to giving up without a fight.

Besides, they know that if some part, any part, of Russia manages to break away from the Motherland, that'll open an entire Pandora's Box of currently more-or-less dormant territorial disputes all over the Russian Federation, from Finland to Japan.

[Loki]

I wouldn't say that. Wheeler is generally regarded as the architect of the Reagan Doctrine - which was designed to oppose Soviet influence globally. He can't be accused of being a pro-Russia partisan who is likely to overstate the case.


Hmmm ... I'm sorry, but it sounds as if he has lost his mind since then:



The geopolitical bottom line is that there is no way Russia is going to be able to hold on to Siberia for much longer. Within 20 years or less, it's going to be Chinese Siberia.


^^ C'mon, that is not at all a likely scenario.



Hmmm, take a look at this article for one:

http://www.americanpatrol.com/RECONQUISTA/GreatMexInvasDeMola820720.html

States like the KSA are also financing mosques in Europe. It is a form of colonization. Also, Qadhafi's comments on Turkey's EU accession should be weighed carefully, especially as it is clearly in the Islamic world's interests that Turkey, and Muslims, be in the EU:

http://www.algathafi.org/html-english/cat_03_04.htm

You could consider financing of mosques as 'a form of colonization', but it's not exactly what we are talking about. We're talking about immigration, whether it is orchestrated by states or individuals. My vote goes for individuals.

[Osweo]

WESTERN PATRIOT!
Here are the official Ten Holy Tr00faxx to believe about Russia:

1. Russia is experiencing demographic collapse!!1111!
2. The Russian state is still as oppressive as in Stalin's heyday!
3. Minorities in Russia are crushed with the Iron Fist of the Kremlin!!!11!
4. Caucasian terrorists are gallant 'freedom-fighters'!!!111!
5. Siberia will be Chinese in at least twenty years time!!!1111!!!!1!1!
6. Russia is an ever looming threat to the West, looking to re-establish her Evil Empiretm
7. Russians are all violent unpredictable alcoholics.
8. Russia is the most corrupt society on Earth.
9. A heroic pro-Western opposition exists that is ruthlessly suppressed.
10. Savage bears roam the Moscow streets.


:cheer_icoon: :cheer_icoon: :usa2: :cheer_icoon: :cheer_icoon:


Believe, and OBEY!

[Loki]

5. Siberia will be Chinese in at least twenty years time!!!1111!!!!1!1!


The probability of this happening is on par with Texas or California becoming part of the Mexican state - i.e. not impossible, but very unlikely.

[Osweo]

Damn, I forgot to include the nice little paradoxical pair;
* Russia is an evil RACISTtm country and
* Russians are EVIL cos they're all part Mongol!!11!

;)

[poiuytrewq0987]

The probability of this happening is on par with Texas or California becoming part of the Mexican state - i.e. not impossible, but very unlikely.

This brings up an interesting point. It may be impossible for all of California and Texas to become part of Mexico anytime soon but if demographics progress stays the same; Southern California and Texas, New Mexico and Arizona will most certainly have the capability to vote for secession.

[Äike]

1. Russia is experiencing demographic collapse!!1111!

True


2. The Russian state is still as oppressive as in Stalin's heyday!

False



3. Minorities in Russia are crushed with the Iron Fist of the Kremlin!!!11!

True, there are a lot of examples, like the the Izhorians. The last Izhorian villages are "destroyed" with the development of the Ust-Luga Sea Port. You could call the Ust-Luga Sea Port, Putin's project. Russia of course doesn't give a damn about the natives of the region.

A few years ago I met some Udmurts and one of them was talking(in Estonian, she has learned in the Tartu University) about how they are trying to preserve Udmurt culture, language and people in front of 150 people. She started crying in front of the crowd and had to sit down as the reality did hit her once again. You couldn't say that Russia's policies have solely one goal, to assimilate all the natives, but it is starting to look like it.

There's a reason why almost all the Seto people moved to Estonia, although the majority of Setomaa(Seto territory) was taken from Estonia in the 1940's and Russia to this day continues to occupy it.


4. Caucasian terrorists are gallant 'freedom-fighters'!!!111!

False



5. Siberia will be Chinese in at least twenty years time!!!1111!!!!1!1!

False


6. Russia is an ever looming threat to the West, looking to re-establish her Evil Empiretm

True


7. Russians are all violent unpredictable alcoholics.

False, but they have more of such people, than most other European nationalities



8. Russia is the most corrupt society on Earth.

False, maybe the most corrupt in Europe, but African countries are way more corrupt.


9. A heroic pro-Western opposition exists that is ruthlessly suppressed.

True


10. Savage bears roam the Moscow streets.

...False[/realist]

[Joe McCarthy]

Originally Posted by Loki
^^ C'mon, that is not at all a likely scenario.


Much the same could have been said about predictions in 1970 that Serbia would lose Kosovo, and given the circumstances at the time that would have seemed significantly less probable than a prediction today that Russia would lose Siberia.

But then the point is not that China might take Siberia in 20, 40, or 50 years. The point is that such ongoing developments are not at all conducive to Russian-Chinese amity in the coming years and decades, and that is the argument before us.


You could consider financing of mosques as 'a form of colonization', but it's not exactly what we are talking about.

Immigration and financing of mosques go hand-in-hand. Muslim states encourage Europe to take their people, and finance mosques for them once they get there.


We're talking about immigration, whether it is orchestrated by states or individuals. My vote goes for individuals.

Yet it isn't an either-or proposition. Like any policy, immigration is driven by a confluence of factors. One reason why Germany got Turks in the first place was that the Turkish government pressured West Germany to take them.


The probability of this happening is on par with Texas or California becoming part of the Mexican state - i.e. not impossible, but very unlikely.

I'd say Russia is considerably worse off than the US. Mexican immigrants are moving into an area that is already heavily populated, thus they are assimilating to some extent. Conversely, Chinese are moving into a sparsely populated Siberia, which means they will be far more likely to remain Chinese in outlook.

[Joe McCarthy]

Originally Posted by Osweo
10. Savage bears roam the Moscow streets.


Fascinating that you mention that of all things. During the reign of Ivan the Terrible he in fact set wild bears on crowds of his Muscovite subjects for shits and giggles.

Anyhow, there is a great deal of middle ground between the sort of Russophobe you've cariacatured and the much sillier Russophile who sees Russia as the last bastion for the white man or some kind of viable alternative to the West. The more thoughtful Russophobes at least have some validity to their argument. Russia is an authoritarian state that falls far below the standards of democratic normalcy, has a crappy human rights record, and has been selling weapons to China since 1992 - long before it was 'rejected' by the West.

[Joe McCarthy]

Originally Posted by Karl
False, maybe the most corrupt in Europe, but African countries are way more corrupt.


Actually, many if not most African states are less corrupt than Russia. Have a look at this thread:

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22240

This is revealing:


Russia corruption "may force Western firms to quit"

By Michael Stott

MOSCOW | Mon Mar 15, 2010 6:56am EDT

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Extortion by corrupt officials in Russia has got so bad that some Western multinationals are considering pulling out altogether, the head of a U.S. anti-bribery group said in an interview.

Alexandra Wrage, whose non-profit organization TRACE International advises firms on how to avoid bribery, told Reuters the "rampant endemic" corruption in Russia was much worse than in other big emerging economies.

"My recommendation is: 'Maybe you should reconsider doing business in Russia,'" she said. "I am considerably more optimistic about Nigeria than I am about Russia on this issue."



Berlin-based NGO Transparency International rates Russia joint 146th out of 180 nations in its Corruption Perception Index, saying bribe-taking is worth about $300 billion a year.

"A lot of the conversations (with businesses) around Russia are: 'Can we stay there ?'," Wrage said during a visit to Moscow last week to run a workshop for over 100 mainly Western firms.

[Osweo]

demographic collapseTrue
I can only talk about my own direct experiences. But I've never FELT the kind of MALAISE in Russia that you can in England. If they're collapsing, they're taking it very well! I see a confident people, who remember who they are, and feel a national sense of mission still. All my friends out there of my age have babies.

There IS a rural problem, and this needs serious attention, but I don't feel the 'doom and gloom' of the Western reports when I'm actually IN Russia.

True, there are a lot of examples, like the the Izhorians. The last Izhorian villages are "destroyed" with the development of the Ust-Luga Sea Port. You could call the Ust-Luga Sea Port, Putin's project. Russia of course doesn't give a damn about the natives of the region.

A few years ago I met some Udmurts and one of them was talking(in Estonian, she has learned in the Tartu University) about how they are trying to preserve Udmurt culture, language and people in front of 150 people. She started crying in front of the crowd and had to sit down as the reality did hit her once again. You couldn't say that Russia's policies have solely one goal, to assimilate all the natives, but it is starting to look like it.
I've not met Izhors or Udmurts. I HAVE met Mordva, Kabarda, Tatars, Chechens, Komi, Buryat and Kazakhs, and they've not talked about it like this. Most of them bewail their own people's relative lack of interest in preserving things, actually. Whose duty is it to preserve a culture if the people themselves won't!?


looming threat to the WestTrue
This is a question of 'spin' really. Russia is a huge powerful country. It should have an influence in the wider world. Denying this and actively hampering it only creates artificial situations that cannot last. Holding back the inevitable only increase the damage when the tide DOES finally break through the barriers.


drunks False, but they have more of such people, than most other European nationalities
I fear MY nation can rival them. :(


Heroic pro Western oppositionTrue
What? Fifth Columnist NErusskie like Kasparov and hakamada, Khodorkovsky and Berezovsky!?!? Yeah, right! :rotfl:

These people have NO wide support. THey are UNABLE to relate to the real Russian, they have no access into that different ethnicity's mind. They are nothing.

*******************************


But then the point is not that China might take Siberia in 20, 40, or 50 years. The point is that such ongoing developments are not at all conducive to Russian-Chinese amity in the coming years and decades, and that is the argument before us.
China itself has more sense than to stir trouble there. They've got all of Sinkiang, Manchuria, Tibet and so on to play with, anyway. Their hands are full.

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/9724/russiachina052208thumb.jpg:p
(I saw that on telly in 2007. Putin was hosting some conference with the Middle Kingdom's bosses.)


Nothing can be ruled out in the future, but it would take a really stupid militant clique to take power in either country to make serious trouble.

I'd say Russia is considerably worse off than the US. Mexican immigrants are moving into an area that is already heavily populated, thus they are assimilating to some extent. Conversely, Chinese are moving into a sparsely populated Siberia, which means they will be far more likely to remain Chinese in outlook.
:lol: Chinkies don't go and live in new settlements in the endless conifer ocean that is the Taiga, you know! They are huddled round Russian-founded towns in the far south, dealing in trinkets on the markets and having little allotments to grow marrows and spuds and whatever. They are dependent on Russians, and can be booted out in the flick of an eyelid if it comes to it.

[poiuytrewq0987]

It'll be pretty cool once the economic situation improves in Russia and they end up having larger families and build large metropolises across Siberia.

[Basil]

The probability of this happening is on par with Texas or California becoming part of the Mexican state - i.e. not impossible, but very unlikely.
Texas and California are full of Mexicans, while it can't be said there's any significant presence of the Chinese in Siberia. There are far more favorable immigration destinations in Europe and America for them than this freezing land. As Osweo said they live mainly in towns in a short proximity to the border, and most of them are either businessmen or temporary workers waiting when their contracts are expired, as a rule they are not settlers or colonizers, or full-time immigrants. The Chinese threat for Siberia is highly overrated.

[The Ripper]

I've not met Izhors or Udmurts. I HAVE met Mordva, Kabarda, Tatars, Chechens, Komi, Buryat and Kazakhs, and they've not talked about it like this. Most of them bewail their own people's relative lack of interest in preserving things, actually. Whose duty is it to preserve a culture if the people themselves won't!?


Stalin managed to do enough damage, Putinists just give the finishing touch.

[Joe McCarthy]

Originally Posted by Osweo
China itself has more sense than to stir trouble there. They've got all of Sinkiang, Manchuria, Tibet and so on to play with, anyway. Their hands are full.


Needless to say, things can change drastically in a few decades. I've little reason to assume China will go out of its way to avoid conflict. It went so far as to start a war with India over a territorial dispute when it was much weaker. In the coming years the power gap between it and Russia is likely to increase markedly, and that spells trouble.


Chinkies don't go and live in new settlements in the endless conifer ocean that is the Taiga, you know! They are huddled round Russian-founded towns in the far south, dealing in trinkets on the markets and having little allotments to grow marrows and spuds and whatever.

Erm, do you suppose I think Chinese are setting up towns around Lake Baikal? I'd no more expect that than I would wetbacks living in dugouts in the Sonoran Desert. :rolleyes:

The important thing to keep in mind is that the whole of Siberia has less population than California all by itself. That coupled with the fact that China is over ten times larger than Mexico - and is very overpopulated - portends conflict and possible disaster for Russia in the coming years.


They are dependent on Russians, and can be booted out in the flick of an eyelid if it comes to it.

LOL. You make it sound as if Russia can just flip a switch and these people will vanish. That would be quite a revelation to all of the Russian anti-immigration activists who've been protesting the inflow of workers from Central Asia, believe me! ;)

[Joe McCarthy]

Originally Posted by Basil
Texas and California are full of Mexicans

All told, Russia has about as many illegal immigrants as the US (both are at about 12 million) even though Russia has less than half of America's population. And while the US is getting Mexicans, Russia is getting Muslims.

As for Chinese in Siberia, even Russians on the eastern side of the Urals see the problem:

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Chinese_Come_To_Russia.html


Moscow should act quickly and decisively to limit Chinese immigration into the Russian Far East lest the growing number of Chinese there "polarize" the country, weaken Russian national identity, and give Beijing a lever over Russia in the future, according to a Sakhalin native who works for an international consulting group.

In an article posted on the Kreml.org website this week, Yevgeniy Kolesnikov says that that the number of Chinese residents in the Russian Far East has jumped from 2,000 in 1989 to just under a million now, only one-quarter of whom are officially registered with the government.

Those numbers may seem relatively small relative to the population of the Russian Federation as a whole, the Royal Haskoning consultant says. However, they are quite large in comparison to the 4.9 million people living in the southern portion of the Russian Far East and even the 7.9 million who live in that region as a whole.

Moreover, Kolesnikov suggests the Chinese there are increasingly settling in for the long haul. Polls show that "half live with their families, more than half speak Russian, 70 percent of the youth plan to live in Russia, and their children are studying in Russian schools," even though the Chinese "do not mix with the local population."


Moreover, he continues, "the majority of residents of the Far East are negatively disposed to the Chinese immigration, not only because of their maintenance of a distinct community but also because as a result of their numbers, there has arisen a "de facto new national territorial formation ever less attractive for migrants belonging to European culture."



Another study from Israel in 2002 stated the number of Chinese in Siberia was even higher.

[Osweo]

I don't live in this world of statistics. Siberia's a huge place, and in the little bits that I was in, it didn't seem a problem, that's all I can say.

I can say this about illegal immigrants, though; In America, they're scattered everywhere. A new interactive map came out for census results of 2010 in the US, you've probably seen it. What impressed me most, was the presence of 'Hispanics' almost everywhere. Sure, most are down by Texas and California, but they're up in Michigan and everywhere! In Russia's case, the ilegals that I've seen most of will be those Central Asians employed on building sites. These are housed ON the site, in container sort of things, and I hear are often kept pretty much prisoner. They certainly don't have mass parades where they wave their flags! And it's not families, either. The 'anchor baby' is unknown.

That chips away at the figure a lot, but so will this; there are lots of Russians from Central Asia and the Ukraine and so on that have 'come home', but neglected to do this through official channels. I know a girl in this position from the Crimea.

[Joe McCarthy]

I don't live in this world of statistics. Siberia's a huge place, and in the little bits that I was in, it didn't seem a problem, that's all I can say.

I can say this about illegal immigrants, though; In America, they're scattered everywhere. A new interactive map came out for census results of 2010 in the US, you've probably seen it. What impressed me most, was the presence of 'Hispanics' almost everywhere. Sure, most are down by Texas and California, but they're up in Michigan and everywhere! In Russia's case, the ilegals that I've seen most of will be those Central Asians employed on building sites. These are housed ON the site, in container sort of things, and I hear are often kept pretty much prisoner. They certainly don't have mass parades where they wave their flags! And it's not families, either. The 'anchor baby' is unknown.

That chips away at the figure a lot, but so will this; there are lots of Russians from Central Asia and the Ukraine and so on that have 'come home', but neglected to do this through official channels. I know a girl in this position from the Crimea.

America certainly has serious problems with illegal immigrants, yes. I'm just trying to add a bit of perspective here. I largely blame David Duke for promoting this illusion that Russia is an oasis for white people, though I appreciate the fact that you've lived there and can relate your experiences.

[Osweo]

I like David Duke. :laugh:

You and your Botox fetish... :tsk:

[Basil]

All told, Russia has about as many illegal immigrants as the US (both are at about 12 million) even though Russia has less than half of America's population. And while the US is getting Mexicans, Russia is getting Muslims.

As for Chinese in Siberia, even Russians on the eastern side of the Urals see the problem:

Russia indeed has lots of immigrants from Central Asia and other places of the former USSR. As for Chinese, I myself live to the east of the Urals and haven't noticed so far that we are flooded with them. I have no idea where they hide.

[Fortis in Arduis]

You and your Botox fetish... :tsk:

She's looking good. :D