A lot of genetic studies are jokes

[Peterski]

For example here is a 2009 study about lactase persistence:

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/mace-lab/publications/articles/2009/Ingram_HumGen09_LCT_Review.pdf

^^^
Look carefully at Figures 1b and 1c. Those two figures falsely depict Poland and Czechia as generally lacking the -13910*T allele which generally gives Northern Europeans lactase persistence:

https://i.imgur.com/f3YBgUZ.png

Here is the Supplementary Data Table 3 used for the map:

https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00439-008-0593-6/MediaObjects/439_2008_593_MOESM6_ESM.pdf

The two datapoints causing distortion are:

- Ashkenazi Jews in Warsaw, representing Poland
- Roma in Prague, representing the Czech Republic

https://i.imgur.com/SJmmQIa.png

That's how "representative" really are samples in some of these genetic studies. Always remember to check Supplementary Info to see what samples are being used, and how many.

Latitude / longitude info is also important, it shows from which region(s) are samples.

================

Some other studies like Nelson et al. 2008 and Novembre et al. 2008 also used ridiculously imbalanced sample sizes for different countries (for example 1 sample from Ukraine and 959 samples from Switzerland). They also used 1 sample from Slovakia (8 from Czechia - in total 9 from Czechoslovakia) and that one sample was a Jew, which is why Slovakia (SK) clustered with South Italy in their PCA:

https://i.imgur.com/DqgYnQg.png

[Peterski]

It would be nice to be able to say, that it only applies to old studies. But unfortunately that's not true. For example the 2015 study "Genetic Heritage of the Balto-Slavic Speaking Populations" - by scientists from the Estonian Biocentre of the University of Tartu - used mostly Estonian Poles (citizens of Estonia who declare Polish national identity) to represent autosomal DNA of Poland. In addition to Estonian Poles, they also used samples from Mazovia (North-Eastern Poland, where Warsaw is located). But: 1) no Polish samples from other regions were used and 2) samples from Estonia outnumbered those from Mazovia anyway. Most of their Polish samples - the ones from Estonia - had Siberian admixture.

Behar 2013, "No Evidence from Genome-Wide Data of a Khazar Origin for the Ashkenazi Jews", also has 18 Poles - 11 from Estonia and 7 from Mazovia (see Supplemental File 1).

[Peterski]

I don't know what are they smoking, but I want it too!:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcBid6t6P-k

[Peterski]

Other studies cited that 2009 study or used the same samples (Jews and Gypsies), see below:

https://bmcevolbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2148-10-36

Again, Warsaw and Prague are shown in this map as having nearly no lactose-tolerant people:

http://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2F1471-2148-10-36/MediaObjects/12862_2009_Article_1252_Fig3_HTML.jpg

^^^
This is from 2010 "A worldwide correlation of lactase persistence phenotype and genotypes".

[Leto]

It would be nice to be able to say, that it only applies to old studies. But unfortunately that's not true. For example the 2015 study "Genetic Heritage of the Balto-Slavic Speaking Populations" - by scientists from the Estonian Biocentre of the University of Tartu - used mostly Estonian Poles (citizens of Estonia who declare Polish national identity) to represent autosomal DNA of Poland. In addition to Estonian Poles, they also used samples from Mazovia (North-Eastern Poland, where Warsaw is located). But: 1) no Polish samples from other regions were used and 2) samples from Estonia outnumbered those from Mazovia anyway. Most of their Polish samples - the ones from Estonia - had Siberian admixture.

Behar 2013, "No Evidence from Genome-Wide Data of a Khazar Origin for the Ashkenazi Jews", also has 18 Poles - 11 from Estonia and 7 from Mazovia (see Supplemental File 1).
Why do they use Estonian Poles as a reference? Eurogenes has it too. There's like a thousand self-declared Poles in Estonia. Why not Lithuanian Poles who are more like a real community and national minority?

[Peterski]

Why do they use Estonian Poles as a reference?

Don't ask me why. :dunno: Even Latvian Poles are much more numerous than Estonian:

https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?232709-Classify-Pole-from-Livonia

And Lithuania has more Poles than Latvia, but Belarus has even more than Lithuania:

https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?218770-Subdivisions-of-Polish-people&p=4633997&viewfull=1#post4633997

Quote (from my post in the link above):

"According to official Soviet Union's 1959 census there were still 538,881 Poles in Belarus, of whom 454,348 (84,3%) were rural population – as flights and deportations of 1944-1959 as well as previous wartime mortality affected urban Poles more than rural Poles.

Number of Poles in Belarus by Oblast according to 1959 census:

In provinces located entirely in what used to be Polish part of Belarus before WW2:

Grodno Oblast – 332,300
Brest Oblast – 42,100

In provinces located mostly in former Polish territory, but partially in Soviet Belarus:

Vitebsk Oblast – 83,800
Minsk Oblast – 64,400

And in provinces located entirely in what was Soviet Belarus before WW2:

Gomel Oblast – 7,200
City Minsk – 5,600
Mogilev Oblast – 3,500

Districts of North-Western Belarus with highest percentages (between 90% and 30%) of Poles according to 1959 census (and there were many more districts in 1959 with between 15% and 30% Poles, but I won't list them here. Many of them had over 50% Poles in 1938):

Radun - 25,842 Poles (87,4%) and 1,705 Belarusians
Voranava – 16,117 Poles (86,8%) and 1,342 Belarusians
Ivyanets – 27,529 Poles (75,6%) and 7,830 Belarusians
Svir – 20,898 Poles (72,0%) and 6,320 Belarusians
Astravyets – 17,966 Poles (65,5%) and 6,831 Belarusians
Lida – 40,117 Poles (55,1%) and 22,048 Belarusians
Vidzy – 9,468 Poles (51,2%) and 5,176 Belarusians
Shchuchyn – 19,032 Poles (50,4%) and 14,781 Belarusians
Vasilishki – 16,496 Poles (49,9%) and 15,648 Belarusians
=================
Pastavy – 18,912 Poles (43,3%) and 17,173 Belarusians
Braslaw – 14,873 Poles (40,6%) and 14,482 Belarusians
=================
Dunilovichi – 13,857 Poles (47,0%) and 14,024 Belarusians
Ivye – 12,877 Poles (41,5%) and 16,552 Belarusians
Grodno – 50,159 Poles (38,1%) and 51,570 Belarusians
Valozhyn – 14,063 Poles (37,8%) and 21,652 Belarusians
Vawkavysk – 21,924 Poles (35,4%) and 32,140 Belarusians
Zelva – 11,175 Poles (29,1%) and 26,001 Belarusians

In total according to 1959 census these 17 districts had 713,988 inhabitants, including 351,305 Poles, 275,275 Belarusians, 66,537 Russians and 20,871 people of other nationalities (including the Romani people and others brought in to replace expelled Poles).

(...)

Below some data illustrating the effects of post-war deportations on ethnic Polish population in the Grodno-Vilna areas of Belarus:

This data is from an article written (in Polish) by a Belarusian from Grodno - Siarhiej Tokć:

http://kamunikat.fontel.net/pdf/bzh/22/03.pdf

Examples from three raions (counties) - Wasiliszki, Wołkowysk and Skidel. If we count these three counties altogether then their total population in 1945-1947 (Skidel in 1947, the other two counties in 1945) was - according to Belarusian data - 124.451 including 60.615 Poles, 61.295 Belarusians, 1.407 Russians and 1.134 others. By 1959 their population was 136.382 including 43.356 Poles, 80.307 Belarusians, 9.637 Russians and 3.082 others. So as we can see the percentage of Russians among the population increased from 1.13% in 1945-1947 to 7.07% in 1959.

In 1945 Poles were an absolute majority in Wasiliszki and Wołkowysk. By 1959 they were still a relative majority (49.2%) only in Wasiliszki:

https://i.imgur.com/RQV1rdk.png

(...)

Modern studies carried out recently by the Grodno University and by the Minsk University show that vast majority of Roman Catholics in Belarus identify as Poles and an even larger percent declare Polish ancestry (i.e. some no longer identify as fully Poles, but still declare Polish ancestry).

For research carried out by Grodno University, which shows that 83,3% of Roman Catholics in the Grodno Oblast identify as fully Poles (the rest of Roman Catholics there identify as both Poles and Belarusians or just Belarusians) and even more - because 95% - declare Polish ancestry (including also mixed Polish-Belarusian ancestry) check this source:

https://i.imgur.com/l0WhAId.png

In another survey from 2003, as many as 82% of Catholics in Belarus declared that they have Polish ancestry, including 66% with fully Polish ancestry and 16% from mixed families. In the westernmost Diocese of Grodno 95% of Catholics declared Polish ancestry, while in the easternmost Archdiocese of Minsk-Mogilev still as many as 73%.

This 2003 survey found out that 80% of Catholics in the Diocese of Grodno identify as fully Poles - so slightly less than according to that 2000 research by the University of Grodno (which showed 83,3%). In other dioceses percentages of Roman Catholics who identify as fully Polish are 70% in the Diocese of Pinsk, 57% in the Diocese of Vitebsk and just 35% in the Archdiocese of Minsk-Mogilev (compared to 73% who declared Polish ancestry in the Archdiocese of Minsk-Mogilev).

In the nationwide scale (entire Belarus on average), 63% of Roman Catholics identify as fully Poles (2003 data), 66% declare fully Polish ancestry, and 16% declare mixed Polish-Belarusian or Polish-other ancestry (in total 82% declare Polish ancestry). Regional breakdowns above.

There are also a lot of Non-Catholic (Atheist, Orthodox, etc.) Poles in Belarus, because in some regions % of Poles is higher than % of Catholics."

=====

And a map from 1964 "Atlas Narodov Mira" (Poles = 4 yellowish color and red bar):

https://s1.postimg.org/47zbdhp3t9/p0016.jpg

And a map based on Soviet 1959 census:

http://images70.fotosik.pl/207/d393f526745778ae.jpg

Here some Polish maps for comparison:

Map from Mariusz Kowalski (in Polish):

Light + dark = Polish majority in ca. year 1920
Dark alone = Polish majority in ca. year 2000

http://s29.postimg.org/75avmte2f/Poles_in_Lithuania_Belarus.png

Map from Piotr Eberhardt (in English):

C = Polish majority before the census of 1959
B = Polish majority before the census of 1999
A = still Polish majority in the 21st century

http://s15.postimg.org/nhlnazeij/Shrinking_Poles.png

[Peterski]

By the way Leto, do you have a map showing administrative divisions of Belarus (I'm interested in raions / counties, not just Oblasts) as of year 1959? Or as of 1945-1959? :confused:

[Leto]

Yeah, there's still over 200k Poles in Belarus. My paternal grandfather was baptized Roman Catholic. Presumably he was at least half Polish. His parents died when he was young, so no one knows for sure now.

[Leto]

By the way Leto, do you have a map showing administrative divisions of Belarus (I'm interested in raions / counties, not just Oblasts) as of year 1959? Or as of 1945-1959? :confused:
Um, maybe this one?
https://www.archives.gov.by/download/map4.jpg

[Peterski]

Thanks!


Yeah, there's still over 200k Poles in Belarus.

I think it must be much more in reality. In 1959 there were 538,881 according to official census, and they did not evaporate just like that. I think that more recent censuses are just artificially underestimating the number of Poles. I trust more the 1959 census.

Also surveys carried out by the University of Grodno show that most of Roman Catholics in Belarus either identify as ethnic Poles, or at least acknowledge having Polish ancestry. Contrary to claims that "ethnically Belarusian Roman Catholics are common".

[Peterski]

This is data from the 1931 Polish census for North-Eastern Poland:

It is often considered that it inflated the number of Poles - but it mainly refers to Orthodox Poles, most of whom were in fact Belarusians. The number of Roman Catholic Poles is perfectly fine, though:

http://s4.postimg.org/qisk5fc1p/Kresy1.png
http://s17.postimg.org/g3mfdsxbj/Kresy2.png

[Peterski]

^^^
Poleshuks are "intermediate" between Belarusians and Ukrainians:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poleshuks

[Leto]

It must be much more in reality. In 1959 there were 538,881 according to official census, and they did not evaporate just like that. I think that more recent censuses are just artificially underestimating the number of Poles. I trust more the 1959 census.

Also surveys carried out by the University of Grodno show that most of Roman Catholics in Belarus either identify as Poles, or at least acknowledge having Polish ancestry. Contrary to claims that "ethnically Belarusian Roman Catholics are common".
Well, I doubt there is a conspiracy against Poles in Belarus or anything like that. I'm sure their number has decreased naturally (nearly all Europeans have low birth rates and Eastern Europe has high death rates) and due to emigration and assimilation. Back in the early 20th century many rural people didn't even know what they were, they just said "tuteishy" which means "someone from here". I didn't know most Roman Catholics were Poles though. That makes sense.

In 1989 (shortly before the Soviet collapse) Poles made up 4.1% of the population (417,720).

Languages spoken at home among the Poles (2009 Census):
40.9% Belorussian
50.9% Russian

They are very assimilated, barely different from the general population. Look the same, speak the same, etc.

[Leto]

This is data from the 1931 Polish census for North-Eastern Poland:

It is often considered that it inflated the number of Poles - but it mainly refers to Orthodox Poles, most of whom were in fact Belarusians. The number of Roman Catholic Poles is perfectly fine, though:
Ukrainians and Belorussians in Poland are also largely Polonized as far as I know. That's normal, especially similar groups assimilate fast.

[Peterski]

Well, I doubt there is a conspiracy against Poles in Belarus or anything like that. I'm sure their number has decreased naturally (nearly all Europeans have low birth rates and Eastern Europe has high death rates) and due to emigration and assimilation.

I doubt there was so much of emigration of ethnic Poles from Belarus after 1959. Organized population transfers ended officially in 1959, after that there surely was some spontaneous emigration, but I doubt it was so large. I know one Polish guy who has family in Belarus and he visits them from time to time. They no longer speak fluent Polish, and probably are counted as Belarusians on censuses (I think he even said that they now identify as Belarusians on censuses). But they used to be ethnic Poles and did not disappear, they are still there. It is just easier to identify as Belarusians or Russians under Lukashenko.

[Peterski]

Languages spoken at home among the Poles (2009 Census):
40.9% Belorussian
50.9% Russian

Yes many Poles speak Belarusian. Even higher %, than in case of Belarusians! In 1959 only 6,8% of people who declared Belarusian ethnicity declared that Russian is their native language. By comparison, in 1999 only 41,3% of people who declare Belarusian ethnicity declared that they speak Belarusian in daily life (among urban population who declare Belarusian ethnicity, only 23% spoke Belarusian in daily life in 1999). So ethnic Belarusians speak mostly Russian, and ethnic Poles speak Belarusian.

Weird but true.

[Ülev]

I can not drink fresh milk right from cow, but when I buy "it" in shop (processed in dairies) I can, am I Asian?

[Graham]

True, but then some have changed how we view history and have been fantastic.

[Leto]

Yes many Poles speak Belarusian. Even higher %, than in case of Belarusians! In 1959 only 6,8% of people who declared Belarusian ethnicity declared that Russian is their native language. By comparison, in 1999 only 41,3% of people who declare Belarusian ethnicity declared that they speak Belarusian in daily life (among urban population who declare Belarusian ethnicity, only 23% spoke Belarusian in daily life in 1999). So ethnic Belarusians speak mostly Russian, and ethnic Poles speak Belarusian.

Weird but true.
Yep. Only around 26% of Belorussians speak Belorussian/Belarusian at home. Don't know why so many Poles speak Bel at home. Speaking Russian is nothing surprising though, it's one of the biggest languages in the world, close to 200 million use it on a daily basis and there is a huge body of literature both original and translated available in Russian. Not to mention the Internet. It's difficult to do without a major language nowadays when you're an educated urban person. Even Poles, being a large nation, study English and German massively. And Belorussian wasn't even considered a separate language up until 1917 (you see the same in Italy, Germany with local dialects, so it's not the Russians' fault).