French mainstream in shock after poll puts Le Pen in lead

[The Ripper]

France was shocked yesterday by an opinion poll which suggested that the far-right leader Marine Le Pen could win the first round of the presidential election next spring.

Although the poll was framed in a rather dubious way, and one out of three people gave no opinion, the outcome was a deep humiliation for President Nicolas Sarkozy and a stark warning to his bickering would-be rivals on the centre-left.

Ms Le Pen has now doubled her opinion poll score in the space of four months – from 12 per cent to 23 per cent – revealing a deep anger with French politics-as-usual among voters of both the Right and the Left.

The Harris poll for Le Parisien put Mr Sarkozy in joint second place on 22 per cent with the Socialist party leader, Martine Aubry. This is the first opinion survey in French history to suggest that the Front National could come first in a national election.

Many politicians and commentators suggested that this was a wilfully rogue result. The runaway favourite to win the Socialist primary in November, and then contest the spring election, is Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, not Ms Aubry. All other recent presidential polls have put Mr Strauss-Kahn ahead in the first round next April, followed by Mr Sarkozy and then Ms Le Pen.

All the same, the poll fell like a thunder clap on French politics yesterday. Sources within Mr Sarkozy's centre-right party, the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP) said it would strengthen the hand of parliamentarians already pressing for the president to be dumped in favour of a more consensual centre-right candidate.

In another poll on Saturday, in Le Figaro, a Sarkozy-supporting newspaper, the president fell to the lowest approval rating of any president in the Fifth Republic (that is, since 1958). Only 22 per cent of those questioned said they thought that he was doing a good job.

Socialist politicians suggested yesterday that Mr Sarkzoy had been caught in his own political trap. Since his anti-Rom migrant campaign last summer, he had frequently adopted far-right language and themes, they said. But the benefits have gone, not to Mr Sarkozy but to Ms Le Pen, as the new, avowedly moderate and attractive, face of the far right since she replaced her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in January.

The poll, however wayward, suggests that one of the "mainstream" parties could fail to reach the second-round run-off of two candidates next May.

Ms Le Pen, who has avoided her father's provocative language and declared herself a moderate patriot and a supporter of republican values, said yesterday: "Something big is happening. Faced with an ageing political class with ageing ideas, only the National Front offers people hope."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-mainstream-in-shock-after-poll-puts-le-pen-in-lead-2234262.html

[Guapo]

Magnifique!

[The Lawspeaker]

Le Pen doesn't mean change at all as this guy wants assimilation rather then repatriation. So don't get too excited.

[The Ripper]

Le Pen doesn't mean change at all as this guy wants assimilation rather then repatriation. So don't get too excited.

Its a female Le Pen these days. ;)

Anyway, she has to be tougher on immigration than Sarkozy, not to mention that Front National has co-operated with many other European nationalist parties, which I see as an encouraging sign. Be they republican or not, I think they represent a change in the right direction. Besides, like any party with similar views (unless we're talking about "establishment parties," for whose populism allowances are made), they've been so utterly demonized that the fact that the people are prepared to vote for the "evil ones" shows how tired they are of the current orientation, and that they either see through or simply disregard the media spin. People are getting fed up. All over Europe protest and discontent is brewing.

[Groenewolf]

I hope she wins. But on the other hand this could mean that Sarkozy will win the elections, because the left will vote for him in the second round to prevent Le Pen from winning.

[Osweo]

declared herself a moderate patriot and a supporter of republican values

I'm fascinated that the latter are still considered a vote winner! What is the appeal of these values these days? Is there no resentment among ordinary Frenchmen and women that the ideals of the Republique have been so easy to distort against the good of their own people? What is the constituency for such 'values'? Is local particularism still so weak that this Jacobinism reigns yet?

[SwordoftheVistula]

The runaway favourite to win the Socialist primary in November, and then contest the spring election, is Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, not Ms Aubry. All other recent presidential polls have put Mr Strauss-Kahn ahead in the first round next April, followed by Mr Sarkozy and then Ms Le Pen.


This raises an interesting scenario: it appears that the most likely scenario is that France will become the first country outside of Israel to have 2 jews facing off against eachother for national leader.



I hope she wins. But on the other hand this could mean that Sarkozy will win the elections, because the left will vote for him in the second round to prevent Le Pen from winning.

However, he may have to step up deportations to ensure he actually makes it to the 2nd round.

[gandalf]

As a member of French National Front
in full adequation with Marine Le Pen
I can tell you that she has nothing to do with extremes or "far right" .

All we want is to stop the decadence of our country , the mass immigration ,
the trap of European union that kills nations and states ,
and even ecological problems that kill people and nature
with chimicals and OGM .

We are patriots with no specifical political dogmas ,
just pragmatism , reason , truth , faith and courage .

By the way they just followed the first opinion poll with a second one , where all the potential candidat of the socialist party where facing Marine , Sarkosy and others .

And this poll confirmed the first one , even in the case it would be Strauss-Khan , the man of the FMI or IMF , sherished by the establisment as a probable winner in 2012 ,and the result was :

Marine 24%
Strauss-Kahn 21 or 22 %
Sarkosy 20 or 21 % so OUT for second round .

Yes we are living a deep change in France .
It is like people now realise that they have been abuse for too long ,
with a pseudo alternance between left and right which in fact do the same policy
and lead the country to disaster .

[gandalf]

And this change is actually not a surprise .

In 2002 : 20% of votes for Jean Marie Le Pen and other far righter

Dispite the demonisation of JMLP helped by his public ( and stupid ) provocation about the shoah and WII

In 2007 : Sarkosy has been elected with a program borrowed from the National Front

But did not applied this program , turned to be close cousin of the socialists ...

So with Marine Le Pen witch is much cleaner , more intelligent , more dynamic , and more everything , people now are free and happy to joint in , it is a massive phenomena .

[SwordoftheVistula]

If Le Pen and Strauss-Kahn make it to the 2nd round, who will the Sarkozy voters go for?

[gandalf]

At least half of Sarkosy's would vote for MLP ,

but you don't have to consider just the rightists as potential voters for MLP
because a huge amount of MLP supporters were previous leftists ...

Marine and the National Front is the main vote amongst factory workers
and is getting huge in the youth as well .