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11-21-2018, 07:59 PM
Brexit: Can Theresa May get her deal through the Commons?
By Peter Barnes
Senior Elections and Political Analyst, BBC News
16th November, 2018
The Brexit deal which has been negotiated by the UK and the EU is expected to be agreed at a special EU summit on Sunday 25th November.
After that, MPs will get their say on whether they approve of the deal or not. Several days of debate will be followed by what's known as the "meaningful vote".
Any attempt to work out the parliamentary arithmetic can only be an estimate so all numbers should be treated with caution. As things stand, though, there seems to be a majority against the proposed deal.
Theresa May relies on the 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs for her majority in the House of Commons. Their opposition to the proposed deal alone could make winning the vote tricky but the prime minister's problems don't end there.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/0B0B/production/_104372820_brexit_voting_blocs_in_parliament_640-nc.png
Some 51 Conservative MPs have signed up to the StandUp4Brexit campaign which argues that the proposed deal leaves the UK too close to the EU. (That includes Charlie Elphicke who is currently suspended from the party but generally votes with the government.)
Added to those are the seven pro-Brexit MPs who resigned from government or party jobs on 15th November.
Then there are, perhaps, a further 14 Conservative MPs from the Remain wing of the party who support the People's Vote campaign for another referendum or would like a closer relationship with the EU.
On the other side of the calculation, there are a handful of pro-Brexit Labour MPs who might back the deal. And a further group who could vote for it to stop the possible alternative of a "no deal" Brexit.
There's also one Liberal Democrat MP, Stephen Lloyd, who says he'll vote in favour of the deal to fulfil a pledge he made to his constituents.
As things stand, though, this group isn't big enough to outweigh the DUP and Conservative rebels.
Things can change of course. Mrs May will hope to persuade some of the rebels and more opposition MPs. But she has a long way to go.
By Peter Barnes
Senior Elections and Political Analyst, BBC News
16th November, 2018
The Brexit deal which has been negotiated by the UK and the EU is expected to be agreed at a special EU summit on Sunday 25th November.
After that, MPs will get their say on whether they approve of the deal or not. Several days of debate will be followed by what's known as the "meaningful vote".
Any attempt to work out the parliamentary arithmetic can only be an estimate so all numbers should be treated with caution. As things stand, though, there seems to be a majority against the proposed deal.
Theresa May relies on the 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs for her majority in the House of Commons. Their opposition to the proposed deal alone could make winning the vote tricky but the prime minister's problems don't end there.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/0B0B/production/_104372820_brexit_voting_blocs_in_parliament_640-nc.png
Some 51 Conservative MPs have signed up to the StandUp4Brexit campaign which argues that the proposed deal leaves the UK too close to the EU. (That includes Charlie Elphicke who is currently suspended from the party but generally votes with the government.)
Added to those are the seven pro-Brexit MPs who resigned from government or party jobs on 15th November.
Then there are, perhaps, a further 14 Conservative MPs from the Remain wing of the party who support the People's Vote campaign for another referendum or would like a closer relationship with the EU.
On the other side of the calculation, there are a handful of pro-Brexit Labour MPs who might back the deal. And a further group who could vote for it to stop the possible alternative of a "no deal" Brexit.
There's also one Liberal Democrat MP, Stephen Lloyd, who says he'll vote in favour of the deal to fulfil a pledge he made to his constituents.
As things stand, though, this group isn't big enough to outweigh the DUP and Conservative rebels.
Things can change of course. Mrs May will hope to persuade some of the rebels and more opposition MPs. But she has a long way to go.