Balto-Slavic scale

[Jana]

https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?316490-Slavic-G25-(ancient)-calculator

EAST SLAVS

Target: Ukrainian
Distance: 1.0938% / 0.01093765 | ADC: 0.25x

93.2 Slavic
5.6 Baltic
1.2 Greco-Roman

Target: Cossack_Ukrainian
Distance: 1.5351% / 0.01535052 | ADC: 0.25x

91.6 Slavic
5.4 Baltic
3.0 Turkic

Target: Russian_Voronez
Distance: 1.2042% / 0.01204195 | ADC: 0.25x

85.0 Slavic
14.4 Baltic
0.6 Turkic

Target: Russian_Orel
Distance: 1.1321% / 0.01132058 | ADC: 0.25x

82.2 Slavic
15.8 Baltic
2.0 Turkic

Target: Russian_Kursk
Distance: 1.3664% / 0.01366360 | ADC: 0.25x

80.2 Slavic
16.4 Baltic
3.4 Turkic

Target: Russian_Smolensk
Distance: 1.3334% / 0.01333423 | ADC: 0.25x

77.2 Slavic
22.0 Baltic
0.8 Germanic

Target: Belarusian
Distance: 0.8887% / 0.00888739 | ADC: 0.25x

77.0 Slavic
23.0 Baltic

Target: Russian_Tver
Distance: 1.3907% / 0.01390705 | ADC: 0.25x

70.2 Slavic
22.6 Baltic
4.0 Finnic
3.2 Turkic

Target: Cossack_Kuban
Distance: 2.5871% / 0.02587057 | ADC: 0.25x

66.0 Slavic
20.2 Baltic
11.6 Finnic
2.2 Turkic

Target: Russian_Kostroma
Distance: 1.1661% / 0.01166087 | ADC: 0.25x

59.6 Slavic
20.4 Finnic
20.0 Baltic

Target: Russian_Pinega
Distance: 1.1871% / 0.01187116 | ADC: 0.25x

36.4 Finnic
34.6 Baltic
29.0 Slavic

[Jana]

WEST SLAVS

Target: Polish
Distance: 1.0294% / 0.01029432 | ADC: 0.25x

86.0 Slavic
9.6 Germanic
4.4 Baltic

Target: Slovakian
Distance: 1.9145% / 0.01914454 | ADC: 0.25x

84.2 Slavic
10.8 Balkan
4.2 Germanic
0.8 Baltic

Target: Sorb_Niederlausitz
Distance: 1.9298% / 0.01929826 | ADC: 0.25x

67.0 Slavic
18.2 Baltic
14.8 Balkan

Target: Czech
Distance: 1.1885% / 0.01188460 | ADC: 0.25x

56.6 Slavic
34.2 Germanic
5.2 Balkan
2.6 Greco-Roman
1.4 Celtic

[Leto]

Target: Leto_scaled
Distance: 2.0593% / 0.02059328 | ADC: 0.25x
69.0 Slavic
15.4 Baltic
11.2 Finnic
4.4 Turkic

[Jana]

SOUTH SLAVS

Target: Slovenian
Distance: 1.0270% / 0.01026978 | ADC: 0.25x

64.2 Slavic
20.0 Balkan
6.4 Celtic
5.4 Germanic
4.0 Greco-Roman

Target: Bosnian
Distance: 1.3965% / 0.01396526 | ADC: 0.25x

63.6 Slavic
23.0 Balkan
13.4 Greco-Roman

Target: Croatian
Distance: 0.8581% / 0.00858078 | ADC: 0.25x

63.4 Slavic
16.8 Balkan
10.2 Germanic
9.6 Greco-Roman

Target: Serbian
Distance: 1.1471% / 0.01147061 | ADC: 0.25x

51.0 Slavic
37.6 Balkan
11.4 Greco-Roman

Target: Montenegrin
Distance: 1.2279% / 0.01227887 | ADC: 0.25x

46.8 Balkan
46.6 Slavic
6.6 Greco-Roman

Target: Macedonian
Distance: 1.3930% / 0.01392968 | ADC: 0.25x

44.4 Slavic
39.0 Balkan
16.6 Greco-Roman

Target: Bulgarian
Distance: 1.2016% / 0.01201572 | ADC: 0.25x

46.0 Balkan
38.2 Slavic
15.8 Greco-Roman

[Ford]

Target: Ford
Distance: 2.0068% / 0.02006836 | ADC: 0.25x
64.0 Slavic
29.8 Balkan
4.2 Celtic
2.0 Greco-Roman

[Jana]

BALTS

Target: Lithuanian_PA
Distance: 1.1976% / 0.01197584 | ADC: 0.25x

71.6 Slavic
28.4 Baltic

Target: Lithuanian_VA
Distance: 1.1512% / 0.01151199 | ADC: 0.25x

63.2 Slavic
36.8 Baltic

Target: Lithuanian_RA
Distance: 1.3470% / 0.01347033 | ADC: 0.25x

56.6 Slavic
43.4 Baltic

Target: Lithuanian_VZ
Distance: 1.3510% / 0.01350972 | ADC: 0.25x

50.8 Slavic
49.2 Baltic

Target: Lithuanian_SZ
Distance: 0.9941% / 0.00994124 | ADC: 0.25x

58.6 Baltic
41.4 Slavic

Target: Latvian
Distance: 1.0416% / 0.01041556 | ADC: 0.25x

62.6 Baltic
36.6 Slavic
0.4 Finnic
0.4 Turkic

Target: Lithuanian_PZ
Distance: 1.1195% / 0.01119473 | ADC: 0.25x

65.0 Baltic
34.6 Slavic
0.4 Germanic

[Leto]

Run Estonians please, they're related after all.

[Jana]

Interesting how it detects minor Turkic input in Cossacks. :)

[Leto]

Interesting how it detects minor Turkic input in Cossacks. :)
The Turkic is BS most likely. Tver has no "Turkic" in reality, neither do I.

[Jana]

Run Estonians please, they're related after all.

URALICS

Target: Mordovian
Distance: 1.3357% / 0.01335686 | ADC: 0.25x

59.0 Slavic
19.8 Baltic
13.6 Finnic
7.6 Turkic

Target: Hungarian
Distance: 0.7988% / 0.00798832 | ADC: 0.25x

52.8 Slavic
23.8 Germanic
21.8 Balkan
1.6 Greco-Roman

Target: Vepsian
Distance: 1.4608% / 0.01460836 | ADC: 0.25x

36.0 Slavic
32.8 Baltic
31.2 Finnic

Target: Estonian
Distance: 1.4208% / 0.01420832 | ADC: 0.25x

49.2 Baltic
32.6 Slavic
12.0 Germanic
6.2 Finnic

Target: Ingrian
Distance: 1.4901% / 0.01490079 | ADC: 0.25x

32.4 Baltic
31.0 Slavic
21.8 Finnic
14.8 Germanic

Target: Karelian
Distance: 1.2532% / 0.01253188 | ADC: 0.25x

39.4 Baltic
29.8 Finnic
23.0 Slavic
7.8 Germanic

Target: Komi
Distance: 1.7756% / 0.01775551 | ADC: 0.25x

52.8 Finnic
29.4 Slavic
12.0 Baltic
5.8 Turkic

Target: Finnish
Distance: 1.4784% / 0.01478370 | ADC: 0.25x

34.2 Baltic
32.4 Germanic
21.0 Finnic
12.4 Slavic

Target: Udmurt
Distance: 3.6613% / 0.03661306 | ADC: 0.25x

74.6 Finnic
16.8 Turkic
8.6 Slavic

Target: Finnish_East

Distance: 1.5728% / 0.01572783 | ADC: 0.25x
44.0 Baltic
31.0 Finnic
20.4 Germanic
4.6 Slavic

Mari, Khanty and Mansy score no Balto-Slavic admixture.

[Jana]

The Turkic is BS most likely. Tver has no "Turkic" in reality, neither do I.

It's not like you know personally people from Tver who gave samples, they can be from anywhere. As I said, this is all using ancient samples. People don't score something if they don't have it.
Small Turkic in Cossacks in expected.

[Dušan]

How to get these results?

[Leto]

It's not like you know personally people from Tver who gave samples, they can be from anywhere. As I said, this is all using ancient samples. People don't score something if they don't have it.
Small Turkic in Cossacks in expected.
Oh yeah, you created a bogus run just yesterday and now it's supposed to be very accurate. No offense but some people love the "Tatar" in us which they seriously exaggerate.

[Jana]

Oh yeah, you created a bogus run just yesterday and now it's supposed to be very accurate. No offense but some people love the "Tatar" in us which they seriously exaggerate.

I am just amazed at your hysteria over scoring 3% Turkic. Turkic I used are Ottoman and Kazakhstan Turk samples, complain to people who sampled them.

[Leto]

I am just amazed at your hysteria over scoring 3% Turkic. Turkic I used are Ottoman and Kazakhstan Turk samples, complain to people who sampled them.
Okay, never mind. I really don't want to ruin the thread. Sorry.

[Jana]

How to get these results?

You need to get G25 coordinates from Davidski for 12 USD.
https://bga101.blogspot.com/2017/10/genetic-ancestry-online-store-to-be.html

[Jana]

Okay, never mind. I really don't want to ruin the thread. Sorry.

Stears scores it too, it it makes you feel better. I don't know, maybe your extra Siberian spilling over. But than again most Finnics don't score it.

[Leto]

Stears scores it too, it it makes you feel better. I don't know, maybe your extra Siberian spilling over.
Yes, it does make me feel better. Stears is a Western man :cool:

[Jana]

Yes, it does make me feel better. Stears is a Western man :cool:

Target: Feiichy_scaled
Distance: 2.8143% / 0.02814278 | ADC: 0.25x

68.0 Slavic
30.0 Balkan
2.0 Greco-Roman

Target: Stears_scaled
Distance: 1.5190% / 0.01518989 | ADC: 0.25x

55.8 Slavic
27.0 Balkan
13.0 Germanic
3.0 Turkic
1.2 Greco-Roman

[Jana]

GERMANICS

Target: German_East
Distance: 1.1977% / 0.01197665 | ADC: 0.25x

42.6 Slavic
40.4 Germanic
8.6 Celtic
7.6 Balkan
0.8 Baltic

Target: Austrian
Distance: 0.8938% / 0.00893755 | ADC: 0.25x

35.2 Slavic
29.4 Germanic
26.6 Balkan
8.8 Celtic

Target: German
Distance: 0.9219% / 0.00921927 | ADC: 0.25x

60.4 Germanic
16.6 Balkan
14.8 Slavic
8.2 Celtic

Target: Swedish
Distance: 1.5870% / 0.01587048 | ADC: 0.25x

80.2 Germanic
8.8 Baltic
5.6 Celtic
5.0 Slavic
0.4 Finnic

Target: Icelandic
Distance: 2.1379% / 0.02137914 | ADC: 0.25x

97.2 Germanic
2.8 Baltic


Dutch, English, Norwegian and Swiss-Germans score no Balto-Slavic. Danish average is missing.

[Jana]

TATARS

Target: Tatar_Mishar
Distance: 1.6149% / 0.01614918 | ADC: 0.25x

55.4 Slavic
24.6 Turkic
20.0 Finnic

Target: Tatar_Kazan
Distance: 1.5410% / 0.01541028 | ADC: 0.25x

36.8 Slavic
32.0 Turkic
31.2 Finnic

Target: Tatar_Lipka
Distance: 2.1234% / 0.02123428 | ADC: 0.25x

64.4 Turkic
29.4 Slavic
5.8 Finnic
0.4 Baltic

Siberian Tatars score no Balto-Slav admixture.

[Jana]

ROMANCE

Target: Romanian
Distance: 1.0632% / 0.01063249 | ADC: 0.25x

51.2 Balkan
39.2 Slavic
9.6 Greco-Roman

Target: Moldavian
Distance: 1.1341% / 0.01134094 | ADC: 0.25x

38.8 Slavic
37.2 Balkan
24.0 Greco-Roman

Target: Italian_Northeast
Distance: 0.9346% / 0.00934607 | ADC: 0.25x

12.2 Slavic

Didn't post other admix because this calc is nonsensical for SW Europeans othwerwise. Other Romance groups score no Balto-Slavic obviously.

[Leto]

TATARS

Target: Tatar_Mishar
Distance: 1.6149% / 0.01614918 | ADC: 0.25x

55.4 Slavic
24.6 Turkic
20.0 Finnic

Target: Tatar_Kazan
Distance: 1.5410% / 0.01541028 | ADC: 0.25x

36.8 Slavic
32.0 Turkic
31.2 Finnic

Target: Tatar_Lipka
Distance: 2.1234% / 0.02123428 | ADC: 0.25x

64.4 Turkic
29.4 Slavic
5.8 Finnic
0.4 Baltic

Siberian Tatars score no Balto-Slav admixture.
Add the Chuvash to that list, they are Oghur Turkic, no other member in that group.

[Jana]

GREEKS AND ALBANIANS

Target: Greek_Thrace
Distance: 3.3719% / 0.03371884 | ADC: 0.25x

42.8 Balkan
29.4 Greco-Roman
27.8 Slavic

Target: Greek_Central_Macedonia
Distance: 1.2254% / 0.01225401 | ADC: 0.25x

48.2 Balkan
29.4 Greco-Roman
22.4 Slavic

Target: Albanian
Distance: 1.3211% / 0.01321126 | ADC: 0.25x

61.2 Balkan
19.6 Greco-Roman
19.2 Slavic

Target: Greek_Thessaly
Distance: 1.0292% / 0.01029166 | ADC: 0.25x

58.6 Balkan
30.6 Greco-Roman
10.8 Slavic

Target: Greek_Izmir
Distance: 1.0765% / 0.01076521 | ADC: 0.25x

53.0 Greco-Roman
37.0 Balkan
9.2 Slavic
0.8 Baltic

Target: Greek_Crete
Distance: 1.0445% / 0.01044522 | ADC: 0.25x

91.6 Greco-Roman
7.2 Slavic
1.2 Baltic

Target: Greek_Peloponnese
Distance: 1.4910% / 0.01491038 | ADC: 0.25x

59.0 Balkan
36.2 Greco-Roman
4.8 Baltic

Greeks from Trabzon, Kos and Central Anatolia score no Balto-Slavic.

[Jana]

Add the Chuvash to that list, they are Oghur Turkic, no other member in that group.

Target: Chuvash
Distance: 5.6101% / 0.05610102 | ADC: 0.25x

75.4 Finnic
11.4 Turkic
8.6 Slavic
4.6 Balkan

[Cumansky]

Target: Cossack_Ukrainian
Distance: 1.5351% / 0.01535052 | ADC: 0.25x

91.6 Slavic
5.4 Baltic
3.0 Turkic


Target: Cossack_Ukrainian:GS000035238
Distance: 4.0738% / 0.04073780
58.6 WHITE:Icelandic
21.6 Kazakh
12.0 Iraqi_Jew
3.4 Karaite_Egypt
1.8 BLACK:Gambian
1.2 BLACK:Ethiopian_Oromo
1.0 Selkup
0.4 AMERICAN:Chipewyan

[Cumansky]

Feiichy in 650 AD where was your Slavic ancestors?

[Ljubic]

Feiichy in 650 AD where was your Slavic ancestors?

Cumanskyland

[Cumansky]

Cumanskyland

Slovenians are from Northern Russia in 650 AD

Draguvity my ancestor was in Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Turkey, etc we are Slavs too ;)

[Ljubic]

Slovenians are from Northern Russia in 650 AD

Draguvity my ancestor was in Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Turkey, etc we are Slavs too ;)

Her ancestors are from all of Europe if were talking about all of them until 650 AD. I thought you were talking about Paternal ancestry which in fact is from Ukraine/Poland if the Haplogroup PH908.

[Cumansky]

Her ancestors are from all of Europe if were talking about all of them until 650 AD. I thought you were talking about Paternal ancestry which in fact is from Ukraine/Poland if the Haplogroup PH908.

I don't know about Yugoslav clades, we have good records in my country, and the other countries where my ancestors came from

[JohnnyP]

deleted.

[Teutonski]

How you do this?

[Art23]

Me

Distance: 2.8516% / 0.02851567 | ADC: 0.25x
91.8 Slavic
4.6 Baltic
3.0 Greco-Roman
0.6 Balkan

The calculator is quite anti-Balkan, isn't it?

Without ADC:

Distance: 2.6334% / 0.02633418
38.6 Baltic
31.8 Slavic
19.8 Balkan
5.8 Greco-Roman
4.0 Turkic

[Jana]

How you do this?

You need G25 coordinates from Eurogenes web shop.

[Jana]

Me

Distance: 2.8516% / 0.02851567 | ADC: 0.25x
91.8 Slavic
4.6 Baltic
3.0 Greco-Roman
0.6 Balkan

The calculator is quite anti-Balkan, isn't it?

Without ADC:

Distance: 2.6334% / 0.02633418
38.6 Baltic
31.8 Slavic
19.8 Balkan
5.8 Greco-Roman
4.0 Turkic

It's not, there are more Paleo-Balkan samples than old Slavic ones (5 vs 3)

I might add Bulgar sample for Turkics.

[Karol Klačansky]

Target: Karol_scaled
Distance: 0.0308% / 0.03077132 | ADC: 0.25x
65.4 Slavic
14.2 Germanic
8.6 Balkan
7.4 Celtic
4.2 Baltic
0.2 Finnic

I think this might be one of the lowest distances I've ever gotten on G25. Nice Calc Feichy

[Karol Klačansky]

Is there a western Ukrainian average on G25? If so can you do that one.

Also where @peterski at, he should share his results.

[Bosniensis]

Target: Bosniensis_scaled
Distance: 1.8284% / 0.01828440
46.6 Slavic
31.4 Greco-Roman
13.8 Balkan
8.2 Baltic

[Jana]

Target: Bosniensis_scaled
Distance: 1.8284% / 0.01828440
46.6 Slavic
31.4 Greco-Roman
13.8 Balkan
8.2 Baltic

Calculator is designed for 0.25X, not 0 pen which gives innacurate results.

[cass]

Target: Sorb_Niederlausitz
Distance: 1.9298% / 0.01929826 | ADC: 0.25x

67.0 Slavic
18.2 Baltic
14.8 Balkan

0 Germanic?
It seems to be wrongly calibrated.

[Jana]

Target: Sorb_Niederlausitz
Distance: 1.9298% / 0.01929826 | ADC: 0.25x

67.0 Slavic
18.2 Baltic
14.8 Balkan

0 Germanic?
It seems to be wrongly calibrated.

They score no similarity with medieval Germanic samples, sorry. Not weird considering they plot east of Czechs.
However Balkan samples have some western european drift, especially those from Croatia.

My guess is David handpicked purest Sorbs for his average he could find. His Polish average is also very Slavic and eastern shifted.

[Skiz-gaaR]

WEST SLAVS

Target: Polish
Distance: 1.0294% / 0.01029432 | ADC: 0.25x

86.0 Slavic
9.6 Germanic
4.4 Baltic

Target: Slovakian
Distance: 1.9145% / 0.01914454 | ADC: 0.25x

84.2 Slavic
10.8 Balkan
4.2 Germanic
0.8 Baltic

Target: Sorb_Niederlausitz
Distance: 1.9298% / 0.01929826 | ADC: 0.25x

67.0 Slavic
18.2 Baltic
14.8 Balkan

Target: Czech
Distance: 1.1885% / 0.01188460 | ADC: 0.25x

56.6 Slavic
34.2 Germanic
5.2 Balkan
2.6 Greco-Roman
1.4 Celtic


How do Slovaks and Sorbs have Balkan but Poles don't? Sorbs are further west than Poles

[-Scar-]

WEST SLAVS

Target: Polish
Distance: 1.0294% / 0.01029432 | ADC: 0.25x

86.0 Slavic
9.6 Germanic
4.4 Baltic




Best model based on historical data.
Before the Slavic migration the people in Western Poland were Swedish-like, clearly there was a large scale replacement.

[Token]

Target: Hungarian
Distance: 0.7988% / 0.00798832 | ADC: 0.25x

52.8 Slavic
23.8 Germanic
21.8 Balkan
1.6 Greco-Roman

I've been playing with this Hungarian academic average with qpAdm. Apparently they don't need anything besides Germanic and Slavic, the Balkan stuff is just Global25 overfitting the data. This is one of the models that i ran (obs: qpAdm does not distinguish North Europeans, so Germany_EMedieval is a stand in for both Slavic and Germanic. The exact proportions of both should be analysed using G25):

Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval 0.873 +- 0.100
Lech_MBA 0.127 +- 0.100
chisq 10.154
tail prob 0 516617

So Lech_MBA isn't required (and neither are Hungary_Scythian and Croatia_EIA) since the std.error is basically equal to the admixture coefficient, so the nested model with only Germany_EMedieval (p-value: 0.14) is closer to optimal.

Full output:

left pops:
Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval.SG
Germany_Lech_MBA

right pops:
Czech_Vestonice16
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG
Russia_MA1_HG.SG
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
Jordan_PPNB
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG
Morocco_Iberomaurusian
Iran_GanjDareh_N
Cameroon_SMA.DG
Anatolia_N
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic
Russia_HG_Karelia

0 Hungarian 20
1 Germany_EMedieval.SG 35
2 Germany_Lech_MBA 7
3 Czech_Vestonice16 1
4 Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1
5 Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1
6 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 1
7 Jordan_PPNB 4
8 Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 4
9 Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 1
10 Morocco_Iberomaurusian 6
11 Iran_GanjDareh_N 8
12 Cameroon_SMA.DG 1
13 Anatolia_N 22
14 Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 3
15 Russia_HG_Karelia 2
jackknife block size: 0.050
snps: 593124 indivs: 117
number of blocks for block jackknife: 711
dof (jackknife): 602.170
numsnps used: 46474
codimension 1
f4info:
f4rank: 1 dof: 11 chisq: 10.154 tail: 0.51661742 dofdiff: 13 chisqdiff: -10.154 taildiff: 1
B:
scale 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.491
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.268
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.060
Jordan_PPNB -0.175
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.095
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.757
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.364
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.759
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.266
Anatolia_N 0.177
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.180
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.621
A:
scale 941.312
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.204
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.399


full rank 1
f4info:
f4rank: 2 dof: 0 chisq: 0.000 tail: 1 dofdiff: 11 chisqdiff: 10.154 taildiff: 0.51661742
B:
scale 1.000 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.520 -0.475
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.145 0.221
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.102 0.032
Jordan_PPNB -0.226 1.608
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.080 0.028
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.674 1.886
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.357 1.491
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.776 0.505
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.309 -0.603
Anatolia_N 0.145 1.543
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.170 0.137
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.692 -0.584
A:
scale 991.102 3066.804
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.674 1.243
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.243 0.674


best coefficients: 0.873 0.127
ssres:
0.000479023 0.000581661 0.000056186 0.000515624 0.000479649 0.001012712 0.000723984 0.000529943 0.000338111 0.000651928 0.000560565 0.000512255
0.828304055 1.005779384 0.097153245 0.891591578 0.829385221 1.751132727 1.251877553 0.916352117 0.584644749 1.127281671 0.969301143 0.885767176

Jackknife mean: 0.864886518 0.135113482
std. errors: 0.100 0.100

error covariance (* 1000000)
10007 -10007
-10007 10007


fixed pat wt dof chisq tail prob
00 0 11 10.154 0.516617 0.873 0.127
01 1 12 12.339 0.418882 1.000 -0.000
10 1 12 41.981 3.35445e-05 0.000 1.000
best pat: 00 0.516617 - -
best pat: 01 0.418882 chi(nested): 2.185 p-value for nested model: 0.139368

[Aren]

I've been playing with this Hungarian academic average with qpAdm. Apparently they don't need anything besides Germanic and Slavic, the Balkan stuff is just Global25 overfitting the data. This is one of the models that i ran (obs: qpAdm does not distinguish North Europeans, so Germany_EMedieval is a stand in for both Slavic and Germanic. The exact proportions of both should be analysed using G25):

Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval 0.873 +- 0.100
Lech_MBA 0.127 +- 0.100
chisq 10.154
tail prob 0 516617

So Lech_MBA isn't required (and neither are Hungary_Scythian and Croatia_EIA) since the std.error is basically equal to the admixture coefficient, so the nested model with only Germany_EMedieval (p-value: 0.14) is closer to optimal.

Full output:

left pops:
Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval.SG
Germany_Lech_MBA

right pops:
Czech_Vestonice16
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG
Russia_MA1_HG.SG
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
Jordan_PPNB
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG
Morocco_Iberomaurusian
Iran_GanjDareh_N
Cameroon_SMA.DG
Anatolia_N
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic
Russia_HG_Karelia

0 Hungarian 20
1 Germany_EMedieval.SG 35
2 Germany_Lech_MBA 7
3 Czech_Vestonice16 1
4 Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1
5 Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1
6 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 1
7 Jordan_PPNB 4
8 Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 4
9 Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 1
10 Morocco_Iberomaurusian 6
11 Iran_GanjDareh_N 8
12 Cameroon_SMA.DG 1
13 Anatolia_N 22
14 Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 3
15 Russia_HG_Karelia 2
jackknife block size: 0.050
snps: 593124 indivs: 117
number of blocks for block jackknife: 711
dof (jackknife): 602.170
numsnps used: 46474
codimension 1
f4info:
f4rank: 1 dof: 11 chisq: 10.154 tail: 0.51661742 dofdiff: 13 chisqdiff: -10.154 taildiff: 1
B:
scale 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.491
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.268
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.060
Jordan_PPNB -0.175
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.095
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.757
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.364
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.759
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.266
Anatolia_N 0.177
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.180
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.621
A:
scale 941.312
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.204
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.399


full rank 1
f4info:
f4rank: 2 dof: 0 chisq: 0.000 tail: 1 dofdiff: 11 chisqdiff: 10.154 taildiff: 0.51661742
B:
scale 1.000 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.520 -0.475
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.145 0.221
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.102 0.032
Jordan_PPNB -0.226 1.608
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.080 0.028
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.674 1.886
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.357 1.491
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.776 0.505
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.309 -0.603
Anatolia_N 0.145 1.543
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.170 0.137
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.692 -0.584
A:
scale 991.102 3066.804
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.674 1.243
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.243 0.674


best coefficients: 0.873 0.127
ssres:
0.000479023 0.000581661 0.000056186 0.000515624 0.000479649 0.001012712 0.000723984 0.000529943 0.000338111 0.000651928 0.000560565 0.000512255
0.828304055 1.005779384 0.097153245 0.891591578 0.829385221 1.751132727 1.251877553 0.916352117 0.584644749 1.127281671 0.969301143 0.885767176

Jackknife mean: 0.864886518 0.135113482
std. errors: 0.100 0.100

error covariance (* 1000000)
10007 -10007
-10007 10007


fixed pat wt dof chisq tail prob
00 0 11 10.154 0.516617 0.873 0.127
01 1 12 12.339 0.418882 1.000 -0.000
10 1 12 41.981 3.35445e-05 0.000 1.000
best pat: 00 0.516617 - -
best pat: 01 0.418882 chi(nested): 2.185 p-value for nested model: 0.139368

Your right pops are too old and basic for such a recent run(migration era samples).
There’s absolutely no way Hungarians don’t have any more Southern ancestry than the Belarussian-like early Slavs and the Scandinavian-like early Germanics, Hungarians score significantly more Barcin than both these populations. There’s some East Eurasian there too albeit noise level.

[knez01]

Target: Knez_scaled
Distance: 2.2982% / 0.02298201
33.2 Slavic
31.8 Greco-Roman
23.0 Baltic
12.0 Balkan

Target: Knez_scaled
Distance: 2.4368% / 0.02436807 | ADC: 0.25x
66.4 Slavic
23.0 Greco-Roman
10.6 Balkan

[vbnetkhio]

I've been playing with this Hungarian academic average with qpAdm. Apparently they don't need anything besides Germanic and Slavic, the Balkan stuff is just Global25 overfitting the data. This is one of the models that i ran (obs: qpAdm does not distinguish North Europeans, so Germany_EMedieval is a stand in for both Slavic and Germanic. The exact proportions of both should be analysed using G25):

Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval 0.873 +- 0.100
Lech_MBA 0.127 +- 0.100
chisq 10.154
tail prob 0 516617

So Lech_MBA isn't required (and neither are Hungary_Scythian and Croatia_EIA) since the std.error is basically equal to the admixture coefficient, so the nested model with only Germany_EMedieval (p-value: 0.14) is closer to optimal.

Full output:

left pops:
Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval.SG
Germany_Lech_MBA

right pops:
Czech_Vestonice16
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG
Russia_MA1_HG.SG
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
Jordan_PPNB
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG
Morocco_Iberomaurusian
Iran_GanjDareh_N
Cameroon_SMA.DG
Anatolia_N
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic
Russia_HG_Karelia

0 Hungarian 20
1 Germany_EMedieval.SG 35
2 Germany_Lech_MBA 7
3 Czech_Vestonice16 1
4 Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1
5 Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1
6 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 1
7 Jordan_PPNB 4
8 Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 4
9 Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 1
10 Morocco_Iberomaurusian 6
11 Iran_GanjDareh_N 8
12 Cameroon_SMA.DG 1
13 Anatolia_N 22
14 Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 3
15 Russia_HG_Karelia 2
jackknife block size: 0.050
snps: 593124 indivs: 117
number of blocks for block jackknife: 711
dof (jackknife): 602.170
numsnps used: 46474
codimension 1
f4info:
f4rank: 1 dof: 11 chisq: 10.154 tail: 0.51661742 dofdiff: 13 chisqdiff: -10.154 taildiff: 1
B:
scale 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.491
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.268
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.060
Jordan_PPNB -0.175
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.095
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.757
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.364
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.759
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.266
Anatolia_N 0.177
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.180
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.621
A:
scale 941.312
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.204
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.399


full rank 1
f4info:
f4rank: 2 dof: 0 chisq: 0.000 tail: 1 dofdiff: 11 chisqdiff: 10.154 taildiff: 0.51661742
B:
scale 1.000 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.520 -0.475
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.145 0.221
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.102 0.032
Jordan_PPNB -0.226 1.608
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.080 0.028
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.674 1.886
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.357 1.491
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.776 0.505
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.309 -0.603
Anatolia_N 0.145 1.543
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.170 0.137
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.692 -0.584
A:
scale 991.102 3066.804
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.674 1.243
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.243 0.674


best coefficients: 0.873 0.127
ssres:
0.000479023 0.000581661 0.000056186 0.000515624 0.000479649 0.001012712 0.000723984 0.000529943 0.000338111 0.000651928 0.000560565 0.000512255
0.828304055 1.005779384 0.097153245 0.891591578 0.829385221 1.751132727 1.251877553 0.916352117 0.584644749 1.127281671 0.969301143 0.885767176

Jackknife mean: 0.864886518 0.135113482
std. errors: 0.100 0.100

error covariance (* 1000000)
10007 -10007
-10007 10007


fixed pat wt dof chisq tail prob
00 0 11 10.154 0.516617 0.873 0.127
01 1 12 12.339 0.418882 1.000 -0.000
10 1 12 41.981 3.35445e-05 0.000 1.000
best pat: 00 0.516617 - -
best pat: 01 0.418882 chi(nested): 2.185 p-value for nested model: 0.139368


Hungarians are a Nordo-Slavic mix like northeast Germans? this doesn't make sense.

could you try it with these outgroups?

set 1: Anatolia_N (25), CHG (2), EHG (4), ElMiron (1), Iran_Ganj_Dareh_N (3),
Jordan_PPNB (1), MA1 (1), Mbuti (10), Natufian (6), Ust_Ishim (1), Vestonice16 (1), WHG (6),
Russia_Yamnaya_Samara (9)

set 2: Anatolia_N (25), CHG (2), EHG (4), ElMiron (1), GoyetQ116-1 (1), Iran_Ganj_Dareh_N (3),
Jordan_PPNB (1), Kostenki14 (1), MA1 (1), Morocco_Iberomaurusian (6), Mota (1), Natufian (6),
Ust_Ishim (1), Vestonice16 (1), Italy_Villabruna (1), WHG (6), Russia_Yamnaya_Samara (9).

that's what was used in the Rome study

[Chris596]

Target: Chris_scaled
Distance: 1.9340% / 0.01933960 | ADC: 0.25x
45.8 Slavic
41.0 Balkan
9.2 Celtic
4.0 Greco-Roman

Target: ChrisFather
Distance: 4.3609% / 0.04360857 | ADC: 0.25x
50.6 Balkan
33.6 Slavic
15.8 Greco-Roman

[Token]

Your right pops are too old and basic for such a recent run(migration era samples).
There’s absolutely no way Hungarians don’t have any more Southern ancestry than the Belarussian-like early Slavs and the Scandinavian-like early Germanics, Hungarians score significantly more Barcin than both these populations. There’s some East Eurasian there too albeit noise level.

No, my right pops are very solid for my purpose, have you bothered reading Patterson's notes or looking at the supp. files of genetic papers? Actually i am being quite restrictive here.

Your observations are all based on Global25 so they are meaningless for formal stats, run your qpAdm model and prove me wrong (spoiler: they will show the same). There is no East Eurasian in this Hungarian sample, albeit i am pretty sure Hungarians from the Great Plain will show some.

[Token]

Hungarians are a Nordo-Slavic mix like northeast Germans? this doesn't make sense.

could you try it with these outgroups?

set 1: Anatolia_N (25), CHG (2), EHG (4), ElMiron (1), Iran_Ganj_Dareh_N (3),
Jordan_PPNB (1), MA1 (1), Mbuti (10), Natufian (6), Ust_Ishim (1), Vestonice16 (1), WHG (6),
Russia_Yamnaya_Samara (9)

set 2: Anatolia_N (25), CHG (2), EHG (4), ElMiron (1), GoyetQ116-1 (1), Iran_Ganj_Dareh_N (3),
Jordan_PPNB (1), Kostenki14 (1), MA1 (1), Morocco_Iberomaurusian (6), Mota (1), Natufian (6),
Ust_Ishim (1), Vestonice16 (1), Italy_Villabruna (1), WHG (6), Russia_Yamnaya_Samara (9).

that's what was used in the Rome study

I will when i get home, but i can tell you in advance that they will show the same thing ('ve tried similar setups).

[Aren]

No, my right pops are very solid for my purpose, have you bothered reading Patterson's notes or looking at the supp. files of genetic papers? Actually i am being quite restrictive here.

Your observations are all based on Global25 so they are meaningless for formal stats, run your qpAdm model and prove me wrong (spoiler: they will show the same). There is no East Eurasian in this Hungarian sample, albeit i am pretty sure Hungarians from the Great Plain will show some.

My observation is sollely based on what someone else who is very much an expert of qpAdm who I've talked to regarding these things. I personally don't use it.
qpAdm is easily manipulated and gives different results if one isn't careful with the right pops from what I've heard. You right pops seem indeed very restrictive for the run you're making. Probably needs more recent samples.
Like I said I don't use qpAdm but every study I've viewed which used qpAdm to modell modern populations clearly shows higher Barcin related admixture for Hungarians than either Scandinavians or Northern Slavs(such as Haak et al just on top of my mind).

I'm not willing to discuss this though, to me it's very much a no brainer that Hungarians and other central Europeans have non-Germanic and non-Slavic input which shifts them south, whether is Celtic, Paleo-Balkan or Greco-Roman.

[Token]

...
Like I said I don't use qpAdm but every study I've viewed which ...
Sure you don't.

[Freeroostah]

Target: VangosH_scaled
Distance: 2.0434% / 0.02043351
55.0 Greco-Roman
21.8 Balkan
12.2 Slavic
11.0 Baltic


Balto-Slavic is equally distributed

[Jana]

Target: VangosH_scaled
Distance: 2.0434% / 0.02043351
55.0 Greco-Roman
21.8 Balkan
12.2 Slavic
11.0 Baltic


Balto-Slavic is equally distributed

Calculator is designed to run at 0.25X, not 0 pen.

[Ljubic]

Target: Greatuncle_scaled
Distance: 3.1536% / 0.03153571 | ADC: 0.25x
60.8 Slavic
34.0 Balkan
3.4 Greco-Roman
1.8 Baltic

Target: Father_scaled
Distance: 2.7417% / 0.02741686 | ADC: 0.25x
60.2 Slavic
21.8 Balkan
14.4 Greco-Roman
3.6 Baltic

Target: Ljubic_scaled
Distance: 1.9318% / 0.01931850 | ADC: 0.25x
67.2 Slavic
26.4 Balkan
6.4 Greco-Roman

Edit: Should have read the post above

[Token]

I've been playing with this Hungarian academic average with qpAdm. Apparently they don't need anything besides Germanic and Slavic, the Balkan stuff is just Global25 overfitting the data. This is one of the models that i ran (obs: qpAdm does not distinguish North Europeans, so Germany_EMedieval is a stand in for both Slavic and Germanic. The exact proportions of both should be analysed using G25):

Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval 0.873 +- 0.100
Lech_MBA 0.127 +- 0.100
chisq 10.154
tail prob 0 516617

So Lech_MBA isn't required (and neither are Hungary_Scythian and Croatia_EIA) since the std.error is basically equal to the admixture coefficient, so the nested model with only Germany_EMedieval (p-value: 0.14) is closer to optimal.

Full output:

left pops:
Hungarian
Germany_EMedieval.SG
Germany_Lech_MBA

right pops:
Czech_Vestonice16
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG
Russia_MA1_HG.SG
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG
Jordan_PPNB
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG
Morocco_Iberomaurusian
Iran_GanjDareh_N
Cameroon_SMA.DG
Anatolia_N
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic
Russia_HG_Karelia

0 Hungarian 20
1 Germany_EMedieval.SG 35
2 Germany_Lech_MBA 7
3 Czech_Vestonice16 1
4 Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1
5 Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1
6 Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 1
7 Jordan_PPNB 4
8 Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 4
9 Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 1
10 Morocco_Iberomaurusian 6
11 Iran_GanjDareh_N 8
12 Cameroon_SMA.DG 1
13 Anatolia_N 22
14 Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 3
15 Russia_HG_Karelia 2
jackknife block size: 0.050
snps: 593124 indivs: 117
number of blocks for block jackknife: 711
dof (jackknife): 602.170
numsnps used: 46474
codimension 1
f4info:
f4rank: 1 dof: 11 chisq: 10.154 tail: 0.51661742 dofdiff: 13 chisqdiff: -10.154 taildiff: 1
B:
scale 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.491
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.268
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.060
Jordan_PPNB -0.175
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.095
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.757
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.364
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.759
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.266
Anatolia_N 0.177
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.180
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.621
A:
scale 941.312
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.204
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.399


full rank 1
f4info:
f4rank: 2 dof: 0 chisq: 0.000 tail: 1 dofdiff: 11 chisqdiff: 10.154 taildiff: 0.51661742
B:
scale 1.000 1.000
Russia_Ust_Ishim.DG 1.520 -0.475
Russia_MA1_HG.SG 1.145 0.221
Italy_North_Villabruna_HG 0.102 0.032
Jordan_PPNB -0.226 1.608
Romania_Mesolithic_IronGates 1.080 0.028
Georgia_Satsurblia.SG 0.674 1.886
Morocco_Iberomaurusian 0.357 1.491
Iran_GanjDareh_N 0.776 0.505
Cameroon_SMA.DG 1.309 -0.603
Anatolia_N 0.145 1.543
Russia_Steppe_Eneolithic 1.170 0.137
Russia_HG_Karelia 1.692 -0.584
A:
scale 991.102 3066.804
Germany_EMedieval.SG 0.674 1.243
Germany_Lech_MBA -1.243 0.674


best coefficients: 0.873 0.127
ssres:
0.000479023 0.000581661 0.000056186 0.000515624 0.000479649 0.001012712 0.000723984 0.000529943 0.000338111 0.000651928 0.000560565 0.000512255
0.828304055 1.005779384 0.097153245 0.891591578 0.829385221 1.751132727 1.251877553 0.916352117 0.584644749 1.127281671 0.969301143 0.885767176

Jackknife mean: 0.864886518 0.135113482
std. errors: 0.100 0.100

error covariance (* 1000000)
10007 -10007
-10007 10007


fixed pat wt dof chisq tail prob
00 0 11 10.154 0.516617 0.873 0.127
01 1 12 12.339 0.418882 1.000 -0.000
10 1 12 41.981 3.35445e-05 0.000 1.000
best pat: 00 0.516617 - -
best pat: 01 0.418882 chi(nested): 2.185 p-value for nested model: 0.139368


Update: after rotating outgroups many times i was able to flesh out some Balkan admixture in present-day Hungarians. I obtained 0.77 North European + 0.23 Lech_MBA, std error 0.1. That is almost identical to the results obtained with G25, which certainly strenghtens the hypothesis, even though you could call the analysis 'biased'.

[oszkar07]

Target: Oszkar Hungarian/British
Distance: 1.9092% / 0.01909200 | ADC: 0.5x RC
42.8 Germanic
27.2 Slavic
17.8 Balkan
12.2 Celtic

[MandM]

Almost identical, so close hehe

Target: Serbian
Distance: 1.1471% / 0.01147061 | ADC: 0.25x

51.0 Slavic
37.6 Balkan
11.4 Greco-Roman

Target: Milenko_scaled
Distance: 1.8421% / 0.01842136 | ADC: 0.25x RC
50.4 Slavic
38.6 Balkan
11.0 Greco-Roman

[Scandal]

WEST SLAVS

Target: Polish
Distance: 1.0294% / 0.01029432 | ADC: 0.25x

86.0 Slavic
9.6 Germanic
4.4 Baltic

Target: Slovakian
Distance: 1.9145% / 0.01914454 | ADC: 0.25x

84.2 Slavic
10.8 Balkan
4.2 Germanic
0.8 Baltic

Target: Sorb_Niederlausitz
Distance: 1.9298% / 0.01929826 | ADC: 0.25x

67.0 Slavic
18.2 Baltic
14.8 Balkan

Target: Czech
Distance: 1.1885% / 0.01188460 | ADC: 0.25x

56.6 Slavic
34.2 Germanic
5.2 Balkan
2.6 Greco-Roman
1.4 Celtic

I am surprised Sorbs score zero germanic. I guess the ones who did mix with the germans assimilated into the ethnic german population.

[Jana]

I am surprised Sorbs score zero germanic. I guess the ones who did mix with the germans assimilated into the ethnic german population.

I don't know how realisitic that reference is, G25 has some fishy references. Sorbs on K13 are bit different:

Distance: 1.1167% / 1.11670865
Target: Sorb_Lusatia | ADC: 0.25x RC

58.6 Czech
35.3 Belorussian
6.1 Swedish

[Peterski]

Poles scored more Germanic than Slovaks and Slovenians in your model.

No any Celtic in Slovaks?

[Ülev]

we, the Balts aren't Slavic!!!!
https://www.eupedia.com/images/content/Slavic_Europe.png

[Jana]

I don't care for this thread aymore, it's pretty obsolete. G25 is poor for modern populations (bad references) and ancients got lot of updates since than. Lock.