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Curtis24
09-14-2011, 03:38 AM
I thought these thoughts from John Bagot Glubb are prescient:


“In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends basically on the loyalty and self-sacrifice of its citizens. The impression that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or human self-dedication, can only lead to collapse.”

“intellectualism leads to discussion, debate and argument, such as is typical of the Western nations today. Debates in elected assemblies or local committees, in articles in the Press, or in interviews on television – endless and incessant talking. Men are interminably different, and intellectual arguments rarely lead to agreement. Thus public affairs drift from bad to worse, amid an unceasing cacophony of argument. But this constant dedication to discussion seems to destroy the power of action. Amid a Babel of talk, the ship drifts onto the rocks.”

“True to the normal course followed by nations in decline, internal differences are not reconciled in an attempt to save the nation. On the contrary, internal rivalries become more acute, as the nation becomes weaker.”

“As the nation declines in power and wealth, a universal pessimism gradually pervades the people, and itself hastens the decline … Frivolity is the frequent companion of pessimism … The resemblance between declining nations in this respect is truly surprising … The Roman mob, as we have seen, demanded free meals and public games … Gladiatorial shows, chariot races and athletic events were their passion. In the Byzantine Empire, the rivalries of the Greens and the Blues in the hippodrome attained the importance of a major crisis … The heroes of declining nations are always the same – the athlete, the singer or the actor.”

“The works of the contemporary historians of Baghdad in the early tenth century are still available. They deeply deplored the degeneracy of the times in which they lived, particularly the indifference to religion, the increasing materialism and the laxity of sexual morals. They lamented also the corruption of the officials of the government and the fact that politicians always seemed to amass large fortunes while they were in office. The historians commented bitterly on the extraordinary influence acquired by popular singers over young people, resulting in a decline in sexual morality. The ‘pop’ singers of Baghdad accompanied their erotic songs on the lute, an instrument resembling the modern guitar. In the second half of the tenth century, as a result, much obscene sexual language came increasingly into use, such as would not have been tolerated in an earlier age.”

“An increase in the influence of women in public life has often been associated with national decline. The later Romans complained that, although Rome ruled the world, women ruled Rome. In the tenth century, a similar tendency was observable in the Arab empire, the women demanding admission to the professions hitherto monopolized by men. “What,” wrote the contemporary historian, Ibn Bessam, “have the professions of clerk, tax collector or preacher to do with women? These occupations have always been limited to men alone.” Many women practiced law, while others obtained positions as university professors. There was an agitation for the appointment of female judges, which, however, does not appear to have succeeded. Soon after this period, government and public order collapsed, and foreign invaders overran the country. The resulting increase in confusion and violence made it unsafe for women to move unescorted in the streets, with the result that this feminist movement collapsed. The disorders following the military take-over in 861, and the loss of the empire, had played havoc with the economy. At such a moment, it might have been expected that everyone would redouble their efforts to save the country from bankruptcy, but nothing of the kind occurred. Instead at this moment of declining trade and financial stringency, the people of Baghdad introduced a five day week.”

“When I first read these contemporary descriptions of tenth-century Baghdad, I could scarcely believe my eyes……The resemblance of all the details was breathtaking – the break-up of the empire, the abandonment of sexual morality, the ‘pop’ singers with their guitars, the entry of women into the professions, the five day week. I would not venture to attempt an explanation! There are so many mysteries of human life that are beyond our comprehension.” [We have a better understanding of this now, thanks to the MRM - Charles Martel]

“The people of the great nations of the past seem normally to have imagined that their pre-eminence would last forever. Rome appeared to its citizens to be destined for all time to be the mistress of the world. The Abbasid Khalifs of Baghdad declared that God had appointed them to rule mankind until the day of judgement. Seventy years ago, many people in Britain believed that the empire would endure for ever … That sentiments like these could be publicly expressed without evoking derision shows that, in all ages, the regular rise and fall of great nations has passed unperceived. The simplest statistics prove the steady rotation of one nation after another at regular intervals.”

“We have not drawn from history the obvious conclusion that material success is the result of courage, endurance and hard work – a conclusion nevertheless obvious from the history of the meteoric rise of our own ancestors. This self-assurance of its own superiority seems to go hand-in-hand with the luxury resulting from wealth, in undermining the character of the dominant race.”

“When the welfare state was first introduced in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water mark in the history of human development. History, however, seems to suggest that the age of decline of a great nation is often a period which shows a tendency to philanthropy and to sympathy for other races … The rights of citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject, and the equality of mankind is proclaimed. The Roman Empire passed through this phase, when equal citizenship was thrown open to all peoples, such provincials even becoming senators and emperors. The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally, perhaps even more, generous. During the Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth century the empire was completely cosmopolitan. State assistance to the young and the poor was equally generous. University students received government grants to cover their expenses while they were receiving higher education. The State likewise offered free medical treatment to the poor. The first free public hospital was opened in Baghdad in the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain to what is now Pakistan. The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin. It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the welfare state as the high-water mark of human attainment. It may prove to be merely one more regular milestone in the life-story of an ageing and decrepit empire.”

“Neither is decadence physical. The citizens of nations in decline are sometimes described as too physically emasculated to be able to bear hardship or make great efforts. This does not seem to be a true picture. Citizens of great nations in decadence are normally physically larger and stronger than those of their barbarian invaders … Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease, resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism, decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity. The citizens of such a nation will no longer make an effort to save themselves, because they are not convinced that anything in life is worth saving.“

Laly
08-26-2020, 12:37 PM
It’s interesting. In fact, historical parallelism is always interesting.

First, I’d insist on the fact that several historians reject the notion of “fall” concerning the Roman Empire, like the famous Belgian historian Henri Pirenne. The latter considers indeed that the Empire continued to exist, under any kind of form, until the VIIth century, when the Arab conquests started to disrupt the Mediterranean trade (reason why the Portuguese started to look for other routes…). Then, Pirenne considers the Frankish Kingdom to be also a continuation of the Roman Empire (views shared by the Gallo-Roman Gregory of Tours), legitimating the coronation of Charlemagne as the Germanic Roman Emperor.

Furthermore, I’ve read a very interesting book by another historian, the German Walloon David Engels, who compares the current period, not with the fall of the Roman empire, but with that of the Roman Republic. The book’s title is The Decline. The crisis of the European Union and the fall of the Roman Republic. Historical analogies (Le déclin. La crise de l’Union euorpéenne et la chute de la République romaine). I quite like that comparison, that approach, because it somehow leaves more place for hope, as after the Republic, something great arrived, the empire. Here are some quotes from that book. I have to say it took me quite a certain time to find the quotes in English...

On immigration:



Sallust

Thus fell, by degrees, the antient Power of the Roman People, who had before been
Lords of the World, and given Laws to all Nations; and they, who jointly exercised
sovereign Authority, have, each Individual separately, sold themselves to Slavery and
Bondage.

So there are a lot of similarities between the two periods, concerning tolerance, immigration, spirituality, individualism, etc.
Now a Multitude, thus disposed, not only corrupted and degenerate in their Manners,
but also, by their different Courses and Pursuits, so alienated from each other, as to be
incapable of any Coalition and Unanimity, are, I apprehend, very ill qualified to
assume the Government of the Commonwealth.

http://oll-resources.s3.amazonaws.com/titles/2357/Gordon_1562_EBk_v6.0.pdf



Juvenal

And What About all Those Greeks?
That race most acceptable now to our wealthy Romans,
That race I principally wish to flee, I’ll swiftly reveal,
And without embarrassment. My friends, I can’t stand
A Rome full of Greeks, yet few of the dregs are Greek!
For the Syrian Orontes has long since polluted the Tiber,
Bringing its language and customs, pipes and harp-strings,
And even their native timbrels are dragged along too,
And the girls forced to offer themselves in the Circus.

https://www.poetryintranslation.com/klineasjuvenal.php



Dionysius of Halicarnassus


Most of these slaves obtained their liberty as a free gift because of meritorious conduct, and this was the best kind of discharge from their masters; but a few paid a ransom raised by lawful and honest labour.

This, however, is not the case in our day, but things have come to such a state of confusion and the noble traditions of the Roman commonwealth have become so debased and sullied, that some who have made a fortune by robbery, housebreaking, prostitution and every other base means, purchase their freedom with the money so acquired and straightway are Romans. 5 Others, who have been confidants and accomplices of their masters in poisonings, receive from them this favour as their reward. Some are freed in order that, when they have received the monthly allowance of cornº given by the public or some other largesse distributed by the men in power to the poor among the citizens, they may bring it to those who granted them their freedom. And others owe their freedom to the levity of their masters and to their vain thirst for popularity. 6 I, at any rate, know of some who have allowed all their slaves to be freed after their death, in order that they might be called good men when they were dead and that many people might follow their biers wearing their liberty-caps;50 indeed, some of those taking part in these processions, as one might have heard from those who knew, have been malefactors just out of jail, who had committed crimes deserving of a thousand deaths. Most people, nevertheless, as they look upon these stains51 that can scarce be washed away from the city, are grieved and condemn the custom, looking upon it as unseemly that a dominant city which aspires to rule the whole world should make such men citizens.

https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Dionysius_of_Halicarnassus/4B*.html


On couple, parenting, birth control :



Tacitus

Who does not know that eloquence and all other arts have declined from their ancient glory, not from dearth of men, but from the indolence of the young, the carelessness of parents, the ignorance of teachers, and neglect of the old discipline? The evils which first began in Rome soon spread through Italy, and are now diffusing themselves into the provinces. But your provincial affairs are best known to yourselves. I shall speak of Rome, and of those native and home-bred vices which take hold of us as soon as we are born, and multiply with every stage of life, when I have first said a few words on the strict discipline of our ancestors in the education and training of children. Every citizen's son, the child of a chaste mother, was from the beginning reared, not in the chamber of a purchased nurse, but in that mother's bosom and embrace, and it was her special glory to study her home and devote herself to her children. It was usual to select an elderly kinswoman of approved and esteemed character to have the entire charge of all the children of the household. In her presence it was the last offence to utter an unseemly word or to do a disgraceful act. With scrupulous piety and modesty she regulated not only the boy's studies and occupations, but even his recreations and games. […] But in our day we entrust the infant to a little Greek servant-girl who is attended by one or two, commonly the worst of all the slaves, creatures utterly unfit for any important work. Their stories and their prejudices from the very first fill the child's tender and uninstructed mind. No one in the whole house cares what he says or does before his infant master. Even parents themselves familiarise their little ones, not with virtue and modesty, but with jesting and glib talk, which lead on by degrees to shamelessness and to contempt for themselves as well as for others.

http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Tac.+Dial.+28&fromdoc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0082



Juvenal


It’s Tragic!
Yet at least such women endure the dangers of childbirth, and all
The effort of nurturing their offspring their lot in life dictates.
Hardly any woman who sleeps in a gilded bed will lie there in labour,
Such is the power of the arts and drugs, of that woman who procures
Abortions, and contracts to murder human embryos in the womb.
Be grateful, you wretch, and offer your wife yourself whatever she has
To take, since if she had chosen to let vigorous boys vex and stretch
Her belly, you might have been father to an Ethiopian! Your dark heir,
Barely visible at dawn, would soon be seen everywhere in the will.

https://www.poetryintranslation.com/klineasjuvenal.php


There was a demographic fall, many people didn’t want children anymore, so measures were taken, such as a tax for single men. (cf. Val. Max. 2, 9,1 – I couldn’t find the quote in English).



Lucan


Where now has fled
The teeming life that once Italia knew?
Not all the earth can furnish her with men:
Untenanted her dwellings and her fields:
Slaves till her soil: one city holds us all:
Crumbling to ruin, the ancestral roof
Finds none on whom to fall; and Rome herself,
Void of her citizens, draws within her gates
The dregs of all the world.[/b
] That none might wage
A civil war again, thus deeply drank
Pharsalia's fight the life-blood of her sons.

http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.02.0134%3Abook%3D7% 3Acard%3D337



[b] Seneca


Is any woman ashamed of being divorced, now that some noble ladies reckon the years of their lives, not by the number of the consuls, but by that of their husbands, now that they leave their homes in order to marry others, and marry only in order to be divorced? Divorce was only dreaded as long as it was unusual; now that no gazette appears without it, women learn to do what they hear so much about. Can any one feel ashamed of adultery, now that things have come to such a pass that no woman keeps a husband at all unless it be to pique her lover? Chastity merely implies ugliness. Where will you find any woman so abject, so repulsive, as to be satisfied with a single pair of lovers, without having a different one for each hour of the day; nor is the day long enough for all of them, unless she has taken her airing in the grounds of one, and passes the night with another. A woman is frumpish and old-fashioned if she does not know that "adultery with one paramour is nick-named marriage." Just as all shame at these vices has disappeared since the vice itself became so widely spread, so if you made the ungrateful begin to count their own numbers, you would both make them more numerous, and enable them to be ungrateful with greater impunity.

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/3794/3794-h/3794-h.htm#link2H_4_0005

Petronius

[T]he men you see in this city are divided into two classes. They are either the prey of legacy-hunting or legacy-hunters themselves. In this city no one brings up children, because anyone who has heirs of his own stock is never invited to dinner or the theatre; he is deprived of all advantages, and lies in obscurity among the base-born. But those who have never married, and have no near relations, reach the highest positions; they alone, that is, are considered soldierly, gallant, or even good. “Yes,” he went on, you will go into a town that is like a plague-stricken plain, where there is nothing but carcasses to be devoured, and crows to devour them.” . .

http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Petr.+116&fromdoc=Perseus%3Atext%3A2007.01.0027



Cassius Dio


For surely it is not your delight in a solitary existence that leads you to live without wives, nor is there one of you who either eats alone or sleeps alone; no, what you want is to have full liberty for wantonness and licentiousness. 2 Yet I allowed you to pay your court to girls still of tender years and not yet ripe for marriage, in order that, classed as prospective bridegrooms, you might live as family men should; and I permitted those not in the senatorial order to wed freedwomen, so that, if anyone through love or intimacy of any sort should be disposed to such a course, he might go about it lawfully. 3 And I did not limit you rigidly even to this, but at first gave you three whole years in which to make your preparations, and later two. Yet not even so, by threatening, or urging, or postponing, or entreating, have I accomplished anything. 4 For you see for yourselves how much more numerous you are than the married men, when you ought by this time to have provided us with as many children besides, or rather with several times your number. How otherwise can families continue? How can the State be preserved, if we neither marry nor have children? 5 For surely you are not expecting men to spring up from the ground to succeed to your goods and to the public interests, as the myths describe! And yet it is neither right nor creditable that our race should cease, and the name of Romans be blotted out with us, and the city be given over to foreigners — Greeks or even barbarians. 6 Do we not free our slaves chiefly for the express purpose of making out of them as many citizens as possible? And do we not give our allies a share in the government in order that our numbers may increase? And do you, then, who are Romans from the beginning and claim as your ancestors the famous Marcii, the Fabii, the Quintii, the Valerii, and the Julii, do you desire that your families and names alike shall perish with you? 8 1 Nay, I for my part am ashamed that I have been forced even to mention such a thing. Have done with your madness, then, and stop at last to reflect, that with many dying all the time by disease and many in war it is impossible for the city to maintain itself, unless its population is continually renewed by those who are ever and anon to be born.

2 "And let none of you imagine that I fail to realize that there are disagreeable and painful things incident to marriage and the begetting of children. But bear this in mind, that we do not possess any other good with which some unpleasantness is not mingled, and that in our most abundant and greatest blessings there reside the most abundant and greatest evils. 3 Therefore, if you decline to accept the latter, do not seek to obtain the former, either, since for practically everything that has any genuine excellence or enjoyment one must strive beforehand, strive at the time, and strive afterwards. But why should I prolong my speech by going into all these details? Even if there are, then, some unpleasant things incident to marriage and the begetting of children, set over against them the advantages, and you will find these to be at once more numerous and more compelling. 4 For, in addition to all the other blessings that naturally inhere in this state of life, the prizes offered by the laws should induce each other to obey me; for a very small part of these inspires many to undergo even death. And is it not disgraceful that for rewards which lead others to sacrifice even their lives you should be unwilling either to marry wives or to rear children?


https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Cassius_Dio/56*.html

sean
09-04-2020, 02:55 AM
John Bagot Glubb was a British Army officer who spent a lot of time in the Middle East and spent a lot of time studying empires and civilisations and tried to find a general pattern which could be used to predict their lives. In his 1978 book The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival, he described a common pattern fitting the history of some fallen empires.

https://i.imgur.com/1cJfcqD.png

He says (using the Romans and Arabs as an example) that this is exactly what usually happens. Woman are granted more personal freedom and entrance to the professions as a result of success and security. Society weakens and older problems re-emerge, and there's an influx of foreigners who don't share the "enlightened" attitudes. One way or another, it's no longer safe for women to walk in the streets unaccompanied, and the feminist changes collapse in on themselves and are forgotten. Welfare, the decline of religion, a sexual revolution, every single empire went through these things and collapsed soon after.

The point was never that empires just vanish in 250 years, but that they enter a period of cultural and economic implosion from which they never recover their great height. They then linger as a shadow, break apart into smaller units, get invaded by a new empire, or all of the above.

However, the bureaucratic character of the modern state is not easily comparable to the old ones.

An ancient "state" could collapse within a generation, at the first succession. This was because of loose communication and transportation networks. Physical barriers made regional power plays across even small territories much more effective.

The modern state doesn't have regional power plays of this nature, and it doesn't have such strong possibility for instability. The modern state is a mess of bureaucracies that simultaneously move state policy, while having very little power vested in any individual. Each is just a placeholder in the system, and the system is almost without a head.

Even massive currency instability has been resolved in less than a decade before. A major collapse in culture could be a sign of a massive renaissance at a later time. Let's not forget that western civilisation needed to have the dark ages before its golden age, renaissance, and enlightenment. Maybe it's time for the west to fall again in the hopes it rises at a later date?