Which of the following do you envisage becoming independent within the next thirty years?

[Tooting Carmen]

Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Flanders, Brittany, Occitania, Corsica, Trento-Alto Adige, Veneto, Sardinia, Sicily, Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia, Transnistria, Chechnya, Dagestan, Palestine, Kurdistan, Balochistan, Kashmir, Tibet, Xinjiang, Mindanao, West Papua, Somaliland.

[Cristiano viejo]

Probably none.

[Rocinante]

Scotland will be the first, Northern Ireland second.

[Tooting Carmen]

Scotland will be the first, Northern Ireland second.

And Wales?:D

[Rocinante]

And Wales?:D

Based on what i saw in this forum, i think the only ones that really seek independence (and this can be seen in the news) are the scottish people. Northern Ireland will seek independence after Scotland leaves the UK. Wales, well, i can´t say anything because i am not sure, what do you think about a possible independence?

[Tooting Carmen]

Based on what i saw in this forum, i think the only ones that really seek independence (and this can be seen in the news) are the scottish people. Northern Ireland will seek independence after Scotland leaves the UK. Wales, well, i can´t say anything because i am not sure, what do you think about a possible independence?

Although support for independence here is still much less widespread than in Scotland, it is growing. A recent poll suggested around 30% of people in Wales now support it.

[Rocinante]

Although support for independence here is still much less widespread than in Scotland, it is growing. A recent poll suggested around 30% of people in Wales now support it.

For what i could investigate, around 1/5 of the welsh people is independentist and wants to leave the UK. Do you advocate for a independent Wales?

[zebruh]

Kurdistan

[Tooting Carmen]

For what i could investigate, around 1/5 of the welsh people is independentist and wants to leave the UK. Do you advocate for a independent Wales?

I'm honestly undecided. While it is true that Wales is economically and culturally intertwined to an extraordinary degree with England, this is at least as much a curse as it is a blessing. An independent Wales would be able to focus on itself more, potentially attract investment through a new tax and business regime much like Ireland has done, and move away from the overly London/City centric economy the UK has become.

[sean]

None.

Scotland can't afford independence (many young Scots are pop culture addled liberal morons who will go along with any movement as long as its optics are subversive 'sticking up for the underdog against the man' just like BLM negroes), Ireland can't afford Northern Ireland and Wales can't afford independence (#indywales is honestly the most faggoty name I've ever seen for an independence campaign lel).

[Tooting Carmen]

None.

Scotland can't afford independence (many young Scots are pop culture addled liberal morons who will go along with any movement as long as its optics are subversive 'sticking up for the underdog against the man' just like BLM negroes), Ireland can't afford Northern Ireland and Wales can't afford independence (#indywales is honestly the most faggoty name I've ever seen for an independence campaign lel).

OK, but what about all the other options I listed outside the British Isles?

[Dard]

Somaliland, the movie Black Panther was an Illuminati foreshadowing of an independent wakanda.

[Rocinante]

I'm honestly undecided. While it is true that Wales is economically and culturally intertwined to an extraordinary degree with England, this is at least as much a curse as it is a blessing. An independent Wales would be able to focus on itself more, potentially attract investment through a new tax and business regime much like Ireland has done, and move away from the overly London/City centric economy the UK has become.

Ireland has done very well actually, their GDP Per Capita is almost the same as Norway, and we all know what this means.

[XenophobicPrussian]

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Transnistria, Artsakh(technically won't be a new country, will join Armenia most likely), Kurdistan(but only in Iraq, not Turkey, Turks too sociopath even in 2050 to support free will), Palestine.

Reasons are = Iraq is barely a state anymore, doesn't have much power | Transnistria/Artsakh backed by Russia, only places really backed up by a major power(I'd also include South Ossetia but while they're backed by Russia, I think they only support the current situation or annexation, an independent North Caucasus state would set a precedent for others) | The world is getting more and more pro-Palestine, not less, neo-cons will eventually have to fold, West Bank is also getting more developed/educated so maybe less support for stuff like Hamas in the future.

Doubt anything will happen in W. Europe, most likely are Scotland or Catalonia, but the time of Europeans worrying about imaginary lines in the ground is all about done(unfortunately, fences make good neighbours). Flanders and most of the others, no way they're happening.

Least likely are the nations within modern China/Pakistan. Also, free Tannu Tuva!

[Tooting Carmen]

Don't forget to vote people.

[ShieldWolf]

Probably none.
^ This.

[sean]

OK, but what about all the other options I listed outside the British Isles? Flanders, Brittany, Occitania, Corsica, Trento-Alto Adige, Veneto, Sardinia, Sicily, Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia, Transnistria

I will just answer the European part as I don't care about third-world shitholes.

Flanders won't happen because in the last elections, roughly half of the Flemish vote (47% if I remember correctly) went to two Flemish nationalist parties. But most of the people voting for these parties just want more autonomy, not necessarily full independence. They just want more government competences to be transferred from the national government/parliament to the regional governments/parliaments. Most people in Belgium don't even feel like Flanders and Wallonia is in the same country. Everything, to the smallest behaviour is very different (that's what you get when you put a Germanic culture and a Frankish culture together in one country).

Brittany is a lost cause because for the most part Breton autonomy and nationalism was always (still is) backed by the left for which Brittany is a stronghold, mostly because Breton regionalism was a counterweight to the heavily Catholic, royalist, anti-revolutionary background of most of Brittany. The Breton language was only ever spoken in the western half, the rest (including the main cities of Rennes and Nantes) is as French as Champagne, Normandy or Picardy (heartland). Bretons have a tendency of alcoholism and radical leftist antifa militantism, they are known to export both ANTIFA and especially "gutter punks" all over France. However, Breton nationalists collaborated a lot with Nazi Germany during WW2, because they had a chance for independence as Hitler was quite respectful on such matters.

Occitan separatism is marginal. What is absolutely mainstream is the feeling of mistreatment that they get from France (starting from La vergonha). You can see it in the Yellow Vest protests. They are poorer than Parisians, feel left behind, and are constantly mocked by frogs (a leftist politician mocked a reporter in front of a crowd some time ago because of her accent).

Corsica wouldn't survive as an independent nation. It is still majority Corsican-speaking, but they also speak French. Corsican separatists are advocating for greater autonomy which they don't get, but it would stop at a specific regional status and they know why (FLNC went dormant years ago).

Padanian separatism is a dead ideology of the 90s, ever since Salvini took over Padanian independence has been largely forgotten. The history of the Northern League has been erased, and even its name has been changed, from Northern League (Lega Nord) to just "League" (Lega).

Veneto separatism is not possible because all their economy is based on small enterprises, and the economic power of Veneto is currently staggering, even compared to other northern regions which are very productive.

Sardinia will never become independent because the support for independence has failed to translate into electoral success for pro-independence parties. Even during Middle Ages they were always a colony of Genoa or Pisa.

Sicilian separatism died in late 1940's. The separatists actually petitioned US President Harry Truman and begged his help in turning Sicily into America’s 49th state. Salvatore Giuliano, in a letter to Truman, wrote that Sicily would become a buffer zone and prevent the Soviets from extending their influence in the Mediterranean. Unfortunately for the separatists, infighting within their ranks and Italy’s political concessions to Sicily ultimately killed their dream.

Catalonia would never happen because 'letting them be independent' without Spain's approval would have meant a veto for their entrance in the EU (as Catalonia wants to leave Spain but remain in the EU), which went against EU interests.

Basque separatism is a dead horse because young Basques don't want to associate themselves with ETA anymore. They just want to live in peace and more and more simply started to see themselves as being Basque and Spanish/French. ETA did more harm than good to the cause of Basque independence and now lost the support of its own people it fought for as well.

Galicia has no future because Bloque Nacionalista Galego (their largest separatist group) remains something of a fringe bloc (their electoral performance has typically been very modest), with this in mind, it seems that the dream of Galician independence is unlikely to become a reality within the next few years.

Transnistria has never been recognised by a single member state of the United Nations, and is thus officially still considered part of Moldova. Ironically, it was the only thing that kept Moldova from not uniting with Romania back in the 90s. The whole point of this place is to act like a parking lot for the Russian military. It provides protection from afar of their warm-water port now in Crimea, and secures their power in the region while acting as a check against NATO. It's basically a southern Koenigsberg, in fact you can assert that all of Moldova is Russia's parking lot. And there are no friendly routes from Russia to Transnistria, it's totally isolated by land and air.

[JamesBond007]

Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Flanders, Brittany, Occitania, Corsica, Trento-Alto Adige, Veneto, Sardinia, Sicily, Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia, Transnistria, Chechnya, Dagestan, Palestine, Kurdistan, Balochistan, Kashmir, Tibet, Xinjiang, Mindanao, West Papua, Somaliland.

I see the opposite I see a trend towards worldwide digital dictatorship by IT corporations and the turning of the populace into docile slaves via genetic modification. I'm not so sure about the latter but I'm sure about the former.

[PaleoEuropean]

None of those really have a shot.

[PaleoEuropean]

I see the opposite I see a trend towards worldwide digital dictatorship by IT corporations and the turning of the populace into docile slaves via genetic modification. I'm not so sure about the latter but I'm sure about the former.

Disney filmed Mulan at the concentration camps so they can learn how to push it forward.

[JamesBond007]

Disney filmed Mulan at the concentration camps so they can learn how to push it forward.

Actually, American hillbilly neanderthals such as you don't read but the praised intellectual of Silicon Valley types Yuval Noah Hararri wrote about digital dictatorships arising in 2018 in his book "21 lessons for the 21st century" and Elias Davidson talks about it here :


https://www.unz.com/audio/kbarrett_elias-davidsson-theyre-planning-to-genetically-modify-us-to-make-us-docile-obedient-slaves/

^ instead of reading you can listen to a podcast LULZ

The mainstream media is on rampage trying discredit such things being applied to the Coronavirus plandemic as 'crazy conspiracy theories' because they learned their lessons from the staged 9/11 attacks that ushered in the police state.

[PaleoEuropean]

Actually, American hillbilly neanderthals such as you don't read but the praised intellectual of Silicon Valley types Yuval Noah Hararri wrote about digital dictatorships arising in 2018 in his book "21 lessons for the 21st century" and Elias Davidson talks about it here :


https://www.unz.com/audio/kbarrett_elias-davidsson-theyre-planning-to-genetically-modify-us-to-make-us-docile-obedient-slaves/

^ instead of reading you can listen to a podcast LULZ

The mainstream media is on rampage trying discredit such things being applied to the Coronavirus plandemic as 'crazy conspiracy theories' because they learned their lessons from the staged 9/11 attacks that ushered in the police state.

The chad English hillbilly vs the virgin Irish American

[Melki]

I voted for Somaliland and West Papua. I didn't see Palestine was included in the poll. Otherwise I would have voted for it too. Palestine was almost granted UN-membership. Somaliland is already independent de facto.

New Caledonia should have deserved to be in the poll.

I can't imagine any new European territory becoming independent within the next three decades, except maybe for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Because welfare and political stability often means status quo.

If a new nation was to emerge, it would probably be a third-world territory in Africa, Asia or Oceania.
The two last states that gained international recognition were Timor-Leste in 2002 and South Sudan in 2011.

[Nurzat]

Scotland and Catalonia most chances. some chances to Wales and Basque Country too, maybe. hopefully also for Western (proper) Moldova

[alnortedelsur]

The Spanish options NEVER EVER. They should not even be in the poll to start with.

[Aspirin]

hopefully also for Western (proper) Moldova

This is impossible, individuals in this region are hardcore Romanos today.

[Cristiano viejo]

Scotland and Catalonia most chances. some chances to Wales and Basque Country too, maybe. hopefully also for Western (proper) Moldova

Catalonia and vascongadas have zero chances. This same week they got a poll, only 28% of basques support the independence.

Catalan politicians tried exactly three years ago. Well, many of them are in jail and a few of them had to flee to Belgium and Switzerland, including the in that moment president of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont (so Catalan and different of the rest of spaniards, racial and culturally, that his grandmother was from Andalusia and his wife is... Romanian).

[Nurzat]

This is impossible, individuals in this region are hardcore Romanos today.


Catalonia and vascongadas have zero chances. This same week they got a poll, only 28% of basques support the independence.

Catalan politicians tried exactly three years ago. Well, many of them are in jail and a few of them had to flee to Belgium and Switzerland, including the in that moment president of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont (so Catalan and different of the rest of spaniards, racial and culturally, that his grandmother was from Andalusia and his wife is... Romanian).

lol @ both.

Spain is as artificial as Romania or Yugoslavia or Belgium or UK.. confederations are good only when no leading nation or region tries to impose everything on the others, but that is what Wallachia, Castilla, or England do..

the entire countryside is hardcore Moldovan, the small towns as well. proper Moldovan I mean, not Russified Bessarabians. you must understand the standard for Moldovan everything is Vaslui, not Kishiniov. but anyway I would not say no to Russification for Western Moldova either xD I am pro- Russian/Romanian bilinguism for Moldova (not speaking of Bessarabia, where that already happens)

[Melki]

The Spanish options NEVER EVER. They should not even be in the poll to start with.

That's what the Commies were saying about the USSR in 1982...:p

[Dr_Maul]

Only northern Iraqi Kurdistan has a chance. Maybe by some miracle, Somaliland as well but I doubt it.

[Ion Basescul]

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Transnistria

Nah, nobody is going to recognise them. This conflict nowadays is largely artificial for Russia to put pressure on us. In reality, half of Transnistria comes to Chisinau every morning and leaves in the evening.

[Ion Basescul]

you must understand the standard for Moldovan everything is Vaslui, not Kishiniov.

Not really, that's the hick version of Moldova, also available in every village of Republic of Moldova. The standard is first of all Chisinau, being the largest urban settlement and centre of culture, and after that Iasi. And if we are russified, then you are gypsified. So nobody is "pure".

[Tooting Carmen]

I voted for Somaliland and West Papua. I didn't see Palestine was included in the poll. Otherwise I would have voted for it too. Palestine was almost granted UN-membership. Somaliland is already independent de facto.

New Caledonia should have deserved to be in the poll.

I can't imagine any new European territory becoming independent within the next three decades, except maybe for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Because welfare and political stability often means status quo.

If a new nation was to emerge, it would probably be a third-world territory in Africa, Asia or Oceania.
The two last states that gained international recognition were Timor-Leste in 2002 and South Sudan in 2011.

Kosovo has had partial international recognition since 2008, and Montenegro gained full independence around the same time too.

[Nurzat]

Not really, that's the hick version of Moldova, also available in every village of Republic of Moldova. The standard is first of all Chisinau, being the largest urban settlement and centre of culture, and after that Iasi. And if we are russified, then you are gypsified. So nobody is "pure".

Wallachia yes, but Moldova as a whole not in the slightest - you have no clue

[Veneda]

My personal independence will be grateful if I don't have to wear a mask when traveling to these countries

[Hithaeglir]

Scotland.

[Teutone]

I hope Flanders.
Belgium is a failed state.
Walonians are lazy cunts.

[Ion Basescul]

Wallachia yes, but Moldova as a whole not in the slightest - you have no clue

I know, I was just teasing. I don't agree with Aspirin that Moldova has received Wallachian or Transylvanian migrations, mixed marriages and other influences. That region is not interesting for those from Wallachia and Transylvania. The direction of migration relating to Romania's Moldova is only out and almost never in. The only people that come to Romania's Moldova are those from Republic of Moldova and those along the border in Ukraine.
Aspirin just saw that people from Republic of Moldova are more Northern than he believed before I started gathering regional K13 results, and now his agenda changed from us being the same people in all of Moldavia region to us in Republic of Moldova being pure and you becoming Southern mutts that must have mixed with Wallachians. This is such an Apricity way of looking at things :lol:

[Nurzat]

I know, I was just teasing. I don't agree with Aspirin that Moldova has received Wallachian or Transylvanian migrations, mixed marriages and other influences. That region is not interesting for those from Wallachia and Transylvania. The direction of migration relating to Romania's Moldova is only out and almost never in. The only people that come to Romania's Moldova are those from Republic of Moldova and those along the border in Ukraine.
Aspirin just saw that people from Republic of Moldova are more Northern than he believed before I started gathering regional K13 results, and now his agenda changed from us being the same people in all of Moldavia region to us in Republic of Moldova being pure and you becoming Southern mutts that must have mixed with Wallachians. This is such an Apricity way of looking at things :lol:

as the Steppe-like / Northern-like genes came from the East and from the North (relative to Great Moldova's borders) in different waves over the past thousands of years it's only normal to have a gradient from East to West and from North to South, the regions that have been in more direct contact to the Slavs having slightly more steppe-like and less Mediterranean-like admix. this also shows there was no serious displacement of peoples recently - the countryside being a stronghold on both sides of the Prut, while the towns and cities are quite unstable through the ages, everywhere

[Ion Basescul]

as the Steppe-like / Northern-like genes came from the East and from the North (relative to Great Moldova's borders) in different waves over the past thousands of years it's only normal to have a gradient from East to West and from North to South, the regions that have been in more direct contact to the Slavs having slightly more steppe-like and less Mediterranean-like admix. this also shows there was no serious displacement of peoples recently - the countryside being a stronghold on both sides of the Prut, while the towns and cities are quite unstable through the ages, everywhere

Yeah, I'm personally not surprised. Let's not forget how Southern some of the villagers in the monoethnic Caplani village (2km away from Ukraine) from Stefan Voda district in Republic of Moldova are, both in relation to the rest of Republic of Moldova and even Romania's Moldova. In my opinion, everyone is the same mix of Vlachic and Slavic, but in varying proportions depending on the location and sometimes even personal history of the family. Where there were more Slavs, people are more Northern today, and viceversa where there were more Vlachs. Since everyone identifies as Moldovan/Romanian despite the results, it is foolish to say that one is more purer than other. In fact, if one wants to go that route then the Southern ones are going to be purer, since they swing closer towards the Vlachic profile.

[Aspirin]

the entire countryside is hardcore Moldovan

"Hardcore Moldovan" pe ritmuri de manele.

[Melki]

Kosovo has had partial international recognition since 2008, and Montenegro gained full independence around the same time too.

Yes, I forgot to mention Montenegro. However Kosovo is not recognized by all countries.

[Jehan]

I would bet on flanders.
We never heard of any violence related to independance there. But the region have a strong culture and even a different language than the rest of Belgium.
Belgium for the second time struggle to make a government. It looks lile a failed state from the outdoor.


For the french region Corsica might be a serious challenger but economically it will be hard for them to succeed outside of France. They know it and that's what keep them inside.
Also the high presence of criminal organization and criminality on the island might scare some people. France already failed to really control them. Without it will literrally be the far west.

A french place who haven't been quote is "New caledonia". A french island on the pacific who have two referendum about independance. They vote against each time, but the vote is clearly different according to the ethnicity of the population. The population there is multiracial (oceanians, locals and so on...). If the population changes, the result will change.


Another place that you don't talk about is feroe island who are part of Danemark.
A referendum in 1946 about independance had been voted and the yes won. The king cancelled the government and next election independantist loose.
It seems the island is divide half half on the subject.
What might change everything is the oil exploration. Because again the only bareer is money.

[Tooting Carmen]

I also forgot to mention Quebec and Puerto Rico.:picard1: All the same, if people want to vote for either of them (or any other unmentioned option, such as New Caledonia) they can do so in the "any other (please state)" category.

[Graham]

Latest poll in last hour.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkSPlGeXYAAFzLN?format=jpg&name=medium

Another poll today done by Survation. Economic risk holds it back otherwise most people want out.

I would vote for independence if I was convinced that it would be good for the Scottish economy.


Agree 75%
Disagree 25%
Net: +50


Control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish parliament/government, regardless of which political party is in power.


Agreed 70%
Disagree 30%
Net: +40

[Tooting Carmen]

Latest poll in last hour.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkSPlGeXYAAFzLN?format=jpg&name=medium

Another poll today done by Survation. Economic risk holds it back otherwise most people want out.

I would vote for independence if I was convinced that it would be good for the Scottish economy.


Agree 75%
Disagree 25%
Net: +50


Control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish parliament/government, regardless of which political party is in power.


Agreed 70%
Disagree 30%
Net: +40


Given the state of politics in Westminster, this is hardly surprising.

[Tooting Carmen]

bump

[Valkyrion]

It's hard to believe that any country in Europe or North America, generally in developed part of the world will soon get dissolved, because separatism usually occurs among poor and unsatisfied populations.

Why would some Dutch speaker from Belgium want to separate Flanders making oneself non-EU citizen outside of Schengen zone, when can have high quality life standard and freely travel across the Europe anyway?

[Tooting Carmen]

bump

[Tooting Carmen]

It's hard to believe that any country in Europe or North America, generally in developed part of the world will soon get dissolved, because separatism usually occurs among poor and unsatisfied populations.

Why would some Dutch speaker from Belgium want to separate Flanders making oneself non-EU citizen outside of Schengen zone, when can have high quality life standard and freely travel across the Europe anyway?

Ethnicity, language, culture, a sense of autonomy?

[axel.aleman]

I hope Antioquía, Choco, Atlantic Coast department of Colombia

[Tooting Carmen]

I hope Antioquía, Choco, Atlantic Coast department of Colombia

You can vote in "Any other (please state)" then.

[axel.aleman]

You can vote in "Any other (please state)" then.

North Ireland, Scotland and Wales then

[Tooting Carmen]

North Ireland, Scotland and Wales then

Funny how you want to see both of my nationalities dismembered. xD

[axel.aleman]

Funny how you want to see both of my nationalities dismembered. xD

Only the Colombian, the english no but Is More probable