Some more from the paper:
In contrast to neighbouring populations, the samples from Medieval South-Eastern (Shtikė, 889-989 calCE) and North-Eastern (Kėnetė, 773-885 calCE) Albania (hereafter Albania Mdv) experience only a minor shift on their PC position from the BA-IA to the Migration Period, hinting at largescale genetic continuity for over 2500-3000 years. This is reflected in the ancestry makeup of Albania Mdv, as in ultimate f4 qpAdm models they derive 17% of their ancestry from Iran N-like sources (2-5% in the BA-IA), while their IGHG ancestry increases only marginally (0-4% in BA-IA, 6% in Medieval times). Proximate qpAdm models comprising Balkan BA-IA sources and proxies for Anatolian-Levantine... The most strongly supported result was a two-way model where Albania Mdv derives 85% of their ancestry from BA-IA-Hellenistic Albania, and 15% from either the Anatolian or Levantine proxy, with equal support. To further resolve the observed ancestry patterns, we ran a second proximate model using Roman era West Balkan sources, together with a Slavic proxy (Russia Ingria IA), where we recovered Albania Mdv as either 100% Roman West Balkan, or 85% Roman West Balkan and 15% Slavic-related.
Furthermore, models using the Avar era outliers as the sole palaeo-Balkan source for Albania Mdv receive high support. However, it is unlikely that the Avar era outliers are realistic local sources due to the fact that such significant ancestry shifts would have pulled Albania Mdv samples towards the direction of southeastern Balkan populations on the PCA, which is not the case...
However, our qpAdm models cannot discriminate whether West palaeo-Balkan ancestry in Medieval Albania originated from indigenous populations or other incoming palaeo-Balkan groups from adjacent regions such as the northern Adriatic coast or the Balkan interior. Indeed, IBD-sharing suggests that the sample from Kėnetė shares small (10.5 cM) segments with BA and Roman individuals from neighbouring Velika Gruda in Montenegro and Zadar in Croatia, respectively. Conversely, the individual from Shtikė shares short segments (11-14.5 cM) with geographically distant Hun and Avar-era commoners from Hungary, suggesting that possible trade networks between Medieval Albania and the Avar Khaganate (based on archaeological artefacts) may have also involved genetic exchange.
In the Roman-Post-Roman PCA, individuals from post-Medieval Bardhoc cluster with the preceding Medieval samples from Kėnetė and Shtikė, except for one outlier who clusters with the Pazhok sample, both of which are pulled towards the Balto-Slavic cline, which was confirmed with f3-statistics... One-way models for Bardhoc PostMdv using Albania Mdv as a source receive very high statistical support, while two-way models with an additional low-level contribution from unadmixed (2%) or admixed (5-10%) Balto-Slavic-related sources are also feasible. However, a one-way f4 qpAdm model for the two Balto-Slavic-shifted outliers from Bardhoc and Pazhok is rejected, suggesting more complex ancestry in these individuals. These outliers are instead recovered as deriving their ancestry from a two-way mixture between a local source (Albania Mdv) and unadmixed (ca. 15%) or admixed (ca. 25-35%) Balto-Slavic-related groups. Heterogeneity in Slavic-related admixture also characterises the modern Albanian samples from Tirana, which ranges from 18-48%. It is likely that modern populations inhabiting areas in Albania that experienced little to no Slavic settlement in Medieval times, such as the south-west (Labėria) and the north (Malėsi e Madhe, Rrethi i Matit), will harbour less Balto-Slavic ancestry than the current modern Albanian samples...
We have shown that modern Albanians from Tirana derive 25-48% of their ancestry from a South Slavic-related source. This ancestry is two to three times higher than the frequency of South-Slavic-associated Y-chromosome haplogroups (R1a-M417, I2a-M423) in the modern Albanian population (15% combined), suggesting that Slavic-related admixture may have been largely female-mediated, as has been shown in 10th century Serbia.
Remarkably, all samples from post-Medieval Bardhoc share large IBD segments (10-70 cM) with the Medieval individuals from Kėnetė and Shtikė, despite the latter being situated 300 km to the south and having lived 500-700 years earlier. However, such a close relationship may be exaggerated by founder effects... We also observe IBD-sharing (9-13 cM) of the Bardhoc samples with a 17th-20th century CE individual from Roopkund lake in India who clusters with modern mainland Greeks. This finding suggests that a population related to Bardhoc may have been involved in the mass migrations of Albanian-speakers into Greece in the 14th-16th centuries CE.
Based on the findings from the PCA, the f4 qpAdm models, and IBD-sharing, we show that the population of Bardhoc PostMdv descends from earlier medieval groups from Albania, which in turn showed continuity with IA and Roman wea western Balkan individuals.
To obtain insights on the ethnogenesis of modern Albanians, we plot the mean Y-Full TMRCAs of Albanian-specific subclades of E-V13, J2b-Z600, R1b-BY611 and other palaeo-Balkan haplogroups (R1b-PF7562, I-M223). Remarkably, a majority of these haplogroups experience a sudden and steep increase in subclade diversity between 500-800 CE, which coincides with the timing proposed by linguistic and historical hypotheses on the origins of Albanians and their language, as well as IBD-sharing analyses. The low number of diversifying subclades prior to 500 CE is likely caused by missing data, probably due to a significant loss of diversity associated with the demographic turmoil of the Migration Period.
Unlike the abovementioned haplogroups, E-V13 exhibits continuous subclade diversification from the Bronze Age to the Roman period, suggesting that populations with a high frequency of E-V13 may have followed a different demographic trajectory from those with J2b-Z600, R1b-BY611, R1b-PF7562, and I-M223. The rate of E-V13 subclade diversification increased steeply from 500 CE onwards, following the pattern of other haplogroups found in modern Albanians. Based on the above, it is possible that currently unsampled populations from the Central-West Balkan interior that were characterised by high frequencies of E-V13 may have entered the region of modern Albania around 500 CE, where they merged and co-expanded with local groups...
Together with qpAdm and IBD data, the principal Y-chromosome haplogroups add further evidence for large-scale continuity of modern Albanians from local groups, without excluding the possibility of admixture with neighbouring palaeo-Balkan populations. Continuity is also mirrored in rarer lineages, such as haplogroup T-Y206597, found in the Medieval individual from Kėnetė, which today comprises almost exclusively Albanians.
However, in agreement with linguistic studies, we find that Albanians likely descend from a surviving West palaeo-Balkan population that experienced significant demographic increase approximately between 500-800 CE, perhaps after a population bottleneck. We show that in contrast to the rest of the Balkans, the Medieval samples from both North and South Albania experienced little to no contribution from surrounding Slavic populations and maintained high levels of BA-IA West Balkan ancestry. Remarkably, the same genetic profile persisted 500-800 years later in most of the post-Medieval samples from Bardhoc, as shown both by the PCA, qpAdm analyses, and IBD data, which indicate significant genetic continuity from the Medieval populations of Albania. However, qpAdm models cannot exclude the possibility of additional admixture with currently unsampled neighbouring late Roman-early Medieval palaeo-Balkan groups with a similar ancestry profile. Based on linguistic data, the area of modern Kosovo and southeastern Serbia may have been such a source.
Despite being largely unaffected by the demographic changes that took place during the Migration period, the historical Albanians did not emerge in isolation. At the peak of the Migration Period, the Medieval population of Albania displayed genetic links as far as Pannonia... Furthermore, two of the post-Medieval samples exhibit significant admixture with South Slavic populations, and modern Albanians display highly variable levels of Slavic ancestry. This indicates complex historical interactions with South Slavic populations, as suggested by toponymy and linguistics.
I don't think the last part has only to do with demographic increase but related to barbarian incursions, before these events Albanians show normal IBD sharing.
rothaer
06-12-2023, 04:23 PM
Preprint on a new Albanian paper out:
“Ancient DNA reveals the origins of the Albanians”
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.05.543790v1
A good and enlightening paper.
If we use the Feiichy G25 ancient Slavic calculator 2.2 scaled to assess the Albanian samples from this paper that are in the current Davidski spreadsheet, then there are two medieval samples that score only "Balkan" and "Celtic-like". These are suitable for being - suggested by Feiichy - a new paleo Balkan reference, replacing the former "Balkan" reference that was represented by two samples from Novo_Selo_Bunje_R3547 and Velic_R3685. Here ALB_MA_I13839 was chosen.
The Feiichy G25 ancient Slavic calculator 2.3 scaled now has this source:
(Balto-)Slavic:HUN_Avar_Szolad_Av2,0.134311,0.126941,0.08 1458,0.065569,0.035391,0.033746,0.00987,0.005769,0 .004704,-0.02278,-0.002436,-0.005395,0.01219,0.020643,-0.015201,-0.003845,0.005867,0.004561,0.008673,5e-04,0.001497,-0.00272,0.013804,-0.007109,0.002634
(Balto-)Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA001,0.129758,0.125 926,0.075424,0.072029,0.046778,0.026774,0.011986,0 .010384,-0.001636,-0.021322,-0.003085,-0.006294,0.008028,0.021194,-0.013843,0.013789,0.019036,-0.005701,0.00352,0.005378,0.004991,-0.008408,0.000986,-0.006145,0.001796
(Balto-)Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA009,0.126344,0.127 957,0.067127,0.070737,0.042162,0.02008,0.011281,0. 014999,-0.001023,-0.032802,-0.001949,-0.01124,0.017542,0.01968,-0.012893,0.007558,0.011604,0.00114,0.005782,0.0115 06,-0.010357,0.003091,0.007765,-0.008796,-0.001676
(Balto-)Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA011,0.125205,0.129 988,0.078818,0.072675,0.047701,0.027889,0.013161,0 .006692,0.005522,-0.020593,-0.00065,-0.009292,0.018583,0.027249,-0.011672,-0.010342,-0.006389,0.00266,0.008045,0.002876,-0.011729,-0.008037,0.007272,-0.003494,0.003952
Celtic-like:AUT_IA_La_Tene:I11699___BC_350___Coverage_73. 92%,0.127482,0.152329,0.050534,0.005814,0.047701,0 .00251,0.004465,0.011307,0.02127,0.026606,-0.002598,0.006594,-0.009366,-0.004954,0.007736,-0.009149,-0.017602,0.003421,0.005908,-0.004627,0.000998,0.002349,-0.004067,-0.005543,-0.006347
Celtic-like:AUT_IA_La_Tene:I11701___BC_350___Coverage_74. 10%,0.126344,0.145221,0.039598,0.000646,0.038469,0 .000279,0.00188,0.006923,0.006954,0.018041,-0.003085,0.005845,-0.014717,0.004129,0.002579,-0.009679,-0.012386,0.007221,0.013575,-0.002876,0.000998,-0.004451,0.004067,-0.00253,-0.006586
Celtic-like:AUT_IA_La_Tene:I11708___BC_350___Coverage_70. 39%,0.134311,0.146236,0.049026,0.008075,0.043085,0 .007809,0.001175,-0.000231,0.017589,0.021868,0.002273,0.007194,-0.007284,-0.008533,-0.005836,0.004508,0.019688,0.006461,0.004399,0.001 626,0.003369,0.001978,-0.010599,0.004579,-0.000359
Finnic-like:Udmurt11,0.102441,-0.021326,0.081458,0.067507,-0.032006,0.007809,0.011986,0.007384,-0.011453,-0.037723,0.022247,-0.001199,0.013082,-0.038672,-0.009365,-0.006762,-0.00352,0.00266,-0.010182,-0.014382,0.006738,0.000866,-0.008134,0.010001,-0.002754
Germanic:ALH_1___AD_450___Coverage_94.81%,0.118376 ,0.129988,0.06939,0.051034,0.048009,0.023148,0.014 101,-0.000692,0.006136,-0.001822,-0.002436,0.003447,-0.008474,-0.012248,0.012486,0.008088,-0.005215,0.004307,0.00817,0.009755,0.009858,0.0046 99,0.001725,0.002771,-0.002395
Germanic:R2204___AD_150___Coverage_65.74%,0.132035 ,0.128972,0.076178,0.057494,0.04647,0.021196,0.006 815,0.011769,0.001227,-0.01221,-0.002436,-0.002398,0.000595,-0.009083,0.020765,0.0118,-0.010431,0.005701,0.006159,0.005753,0.013102,0.003 833,0,0.013496,-0.00012
Germanic:SZ13___AD_488___Coverage_70.31%,0.133173, 0.133034,0.065996,0.059109,0.041238,0.017012,0.004 23,0.001154,-0.005522,-0.004191,-0.007632,0.007493,-0.008622,-0.004542,0.016422,0.006232,0.001043,-0.002407,0.007165,0.002876,0.015473,0.014715,0.003 328,0.01458,0.000359
Germanic:SZ15___AD_508___Coverage_99.90%,0.138864, 0.116786,0.058454,0.042959,0.036314,0.024821,0.002 35,0.010153,0.001227,-0.003827,0.001949,0.001948,-0.013082,-0.015276,0.016558,0.017634,0.012517,0.000127,0.013 073,0.013006,0.003993,0.00272,-0.002342,0.025064,-0.004191
Germanic:SZ16___AD_508___Coverage_54.61%,0.133173, 0.128972,0.068259,0.062662,0.035699,0.019522,0.002 585,0.009923,0.001432,-0.005832,0.001137,0.008992,-0.005946,-0.006881,0.024158,0.006232,-0.008084,-0.000253,-0.003017,0.009004,0.003244,0.005193,0.001109,0.014 219,0.003353
Germanic:SZ22___AD_508___Coverage_59.28%,0.130897, 0.131003,0.057699,0.06137,0.044008,0.011713,0.0051 7,0.002538,-0.000409,0.000547,-0.012991,0.005845,-0.004906,-0.010735,0.010586,0.012463,0.000782,-0.003801,0.002891,0.012381,0.009109,0.004328,-0.004314,0.005663,0.003952
Germanic:SZ2___AD_508___Coverage_99.66%,0.122929,0 .139128,0.070144,0.067184,0.038469,0.018128,0.0061 1,0.006461,-0.000205,-0.009294,-0.000974,-0.00015,-0.008474,-0.00055,0.017372,-0.006629,-0.022296,0.005954,0.005908,-0.004627,0.015597,0.000742,0.007395,0.008555,0.002 634
Germanic:SZ7___AD_508___Coverage_63.80%,0.135449,0 .135065,0.066373,0.062016,0.035083,0.01255,0.00611 ,0.005307,0.003272,0,-0.011205,3.00E-04,-0.007433,-0.010322,0.018729,0.002784,-0.005476,0.000127,0.001885,0.002376,0.009234,0.007 419,0.001602,0.015785,-0.001197
Germanic:CL146___AD_605___Coverage_71.88%,0.129758 ,0.131003,0.063356,0.05491,0.040931,0.015897,0.003 525,0.010384,0.001023,-0.006925,-0.002761,0.004346,-0.017988,-0.007982,0.026873,0.001193,-0.0103,0.003294,0.010056,0.011255,0.006239,0.00432 8,0.003944,0.017954,0.000838
Germanic:CL92___AD_605___Coverage_64.15%,0.135449, 0.132019,0.070144,0.04845,0.037238,0.013945,0.0079 9,0.020307,0.005522,0.002551,-0.013478,-0.001649,-0.005798,-0.004404,0.02348,0.005171,-0.023208,0.005321,0.004777,-0.003502,0.008735,0.008903,-0.00493,0.003615,0.001078
Graeco-Roman:ITA_Rome_Imperial_RMPR76,0.095611,0.142174,-0.042992,-0.064923,-0.011079,-0.015618,-0.006815,-0.007384,-0.007976,0.010934,0.004547,0.001349,0.005798,-0.009909,-0.012079,0.00358,0.026729,-0.008108,-0.002388,0.007003,-0.005116,0.004575,-0.003944,0.008073,-0.000359
Palaeo-Balkan:ALB_MA_I13839,0.120652,0.151314,0.013953,-0.037468,0.030159,-0.012271,-0.001175,-0.001615,0.006136,0.025149,-0.004222,0.003897,-0.015609,0.002202,-0.019815,-0.007425,0.008605,0.006461,0.00817,-0.014257,-0.007112,0.002968,0.006039,-0.003735,-0.000599
Turkic:TUR_Ottoman_MA2195,0.072847,-0.144205,0.035449,-0.000969,-0.045855,-0.02008,0.009165,0.004154,-0.014112,-0.011299,-0.006008,-0.006594,-0.001189,-0.013349,0.004072,0.00053,0.005476,0.002914,-0.005405,0.007879,-0.012104,0.000495,-0.011339,-0.006386,-0.004191
The results in the v2.3 calculator of the made public Albanian members of AG and TA using their G25 coords are displayed here:
https://i.imgur.com/ilJlnos.jpg
The (Albanian) reference for Palaeo Balkan seems notably more "pure" then the mentioned prior "Balkan" references from Novo_Selo_Bunje and Velic, causing some more things to now show up. Amongst others the proto Balto-Slavic proportion of these modern Albanians seem zu be abt. 10-20%, which seems in line with some statements about Slavs having been in Albania to a not irrelevant amount. The Palaeo-Balkan proportion of others like Croats decreases somewhat. Albanians are the top scorers of this component.
There will be a "bouncy-issue" with the calculator as it seems not by coincidence to attribute some Germanic to those testees that happens to get zero Celtic-like.
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