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View Full Version : Azerbaijan may invade Armenia proper



Babak
10-14-2023, 06:10 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/blinken-warned-lawmakers-azerbaijan-may-invade-armenia-in-coming-weeks-00121500

Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned a small group of lawmakers last week that his department is tracking the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia, according to two people familiar with the conversation.

The call indicates the depth of concern in the administration about Azerbaijan’s operations against a breakaway region in the west of the country and the possibility of the conflict spreading.

Azerbaijiani President Ilham Aliyev has previously called on Armenia to open a “corridor” along its southern border, linking mainland Azerbaijan to an exclave that borders Turkey and Iran. Aliyev has threatened to solve the issue “by force.”


In an Oct. 3 phone call, lawmakers pressed Blinken on possible measures against Aliyev in response to his country’s invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September, the people said, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive call.

Blinken responded that the State Department was looking at avenues to hold Azerbaijan accountable and isn’t planning to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the U.S. to provide military assistance to Baku. He added that State saw a possibility that Azerbaijan would invade southern Armenia in the coming weeks.

Kess
10-14-2023, 06:55 PM
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/blinken-warned-lawmakers-azerbaijan-may-invade-armenia-in-coming-weeks-00121500

Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned a small group of lawmakers last week that his department is tracking the possibility that Azerbaijan could soon invade Armenia, according to two people familiar with the conversation.

The call indicates the depth of concern in the administration about Azerbaijan’s operations against a breakaway region in the west of the country and the possibility of the conflict spreading.

Azerbaijiani President Ilham Aliyev has previously called on Armenia to open a “corridor” along its southern border, linking mainland Azerbaijan to an exclave that borders Turkey and Iran. Aliyev has threatened to solve the issue “by force.”


In an Oct. 3 phone call, lawmakers pressed Blinken on possible measures against Aliyev in response to his country’s invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September, the people said, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive call.

Blinken responded that the State Department was looking at avenues to hold Azerbaijan accountable and isn’t planning to renew a long-standing waiver that allows the U.S. to provide military assistance to Baku. He added that State saw a possibility that Azerbaijan would invade southern Armenia in the coming weeks.

Since Russia is already occupied with Ukraine and Iran has directed all of its attention to Israel these days, this could be Azerbaijan's opportunity to get what it wants, but I think it's unlikely there will be another conflict on a similar scale to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh due to the fact that both Russia and Turkey are already involved in peacekeeping in the region.

Xyresic
10-15-2023, 08:41 AM
Iran and Azerbaijan have agreed to build a railway from the Zangilan district to Nakhchivan going through Iranian territory.

https://en.trend.az/business/3807969.html

This may well be an alternative to the proposed Zangezur Corridor that would go through Armenian territory.

Will there be a future conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan? I'm not sure. The Iran-Azerbaijan railway may put to bed the possibility of conflict over the proposed Zangezur corridor. It may turn out to be a good thing for everyone.

2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan does say:


9. All economic and transport connections in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the security of transport connections between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to arrange unobstructed movement of persons, vehicles and cargo in both directions. The Border Guard Service of the Russian Federal Security Service shall be responsible for overseeing the transport connections. Subject to agreement between the Parties, the construction of new transport communications to link the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be ensured.
So I'm not sure if Azerbaijan interprets that as meaning that a Zengezur corridor must be created regardless of this railway project between Iran and Azerbaijan.

Unfortunately the Zangezur corridor isn't the only point of contention between Armenia and Azerbaijan. After the first Karabakh War (during which both Armenia and Azerbaijan gained independence from the USSR) which resulted in Armenian forces occupying the 7 Azeri Rayons surrounding Qarabağ. The Border between Armenia itself and the occupied Rayons were not officially demarcated by Armenia and Azerbaijan. So there are issues in terms of where the actual border between Armenia and Azerbaijan lies in places.