Average amount of Balto-Slavic admixture in Germans

[Peterski]

Ethnic Germans can range from 0% Balto-Slavic to 100% Balto-Slavic (such as the Nidden individual tested by Rothaer) but I wonder what is the average amount of Balto-Slavic if you average all Germans and create one weighted average. Has anyone tried to calculate this?

[Russki]

Maybe move your discussion to this thread?

https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?385286-Evidence-for-dynastic-succession-among-early-Celtic-elites-in-Central-Europe&p=7989349&viewfull=1#post7989349


Most present-day Germans can be modelled as three-way admixture between SGermany_EIA (54.5 ± 2%), NGermany_Roman (33.8 ± 2.5%) and a third, northeastern European source (here Latvia_BA, 11.7 ± 1.2%)


I averaged out 841 modern German individuals (with P-values) qpAdm scores in the supplementary excel file (table 4.14)

SGermany_EIA - 0.501530559
NGermany_Roman (Haven) - 0.341509204
Latvia_BA - 0.156960237
P-value - 2.090E-01

Where South German Celts plot in the modern Euro variation. Amazing (still) that some are Spanish and North Italian-like.

https://i.postimg.cc/kXFh9Tqc/Screenshot-2024-06-17-204206.png


I think that the reason why the authors got slightly different admixture proportions is because they attempted to give a proportional weight to their 841 samples based on the population density in the country. 11.7% and 15.7% for Latvia_BA is a pretty big difference and the reason for that is likely because East Germany is a relatively sparsely populated territory and they intentionally lowered the proportional weight of East German samples.


They forgot to take into account that Latvia_BA is a very EEF-depleted source, if they used Polish-like individuals who actually introduced themselves into the genepool, they would've got a somewhat higher proportion than 11.7% at the expense of SGermany_EIA which serves as EEF-enricher for Latvia_BA in this 3-way model. So your admixture proportions are by accident more accurate, just rename the third one and you get 50.15% SGermany_EIA, 34.15% NGermany_Roman and 15.7% EGermany_EMA.

https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?385286-Evidence-for-dynastic-succession-among-early-Celtic-elites-in-Central-Europe

[Feiichy]

Target: German
Distance: 0.0092% / 0.00918987

50.4 Early_Germanic
22.9 Keltic_Central_Euro
17.8 Slavic_Migrations
8.9 Roman

without Roman:

Target: German
Distance: 0.0118% / 0.01176013

41.7 Keltic_Central_Euro
39.3 Early_Germanic
19.0 Slavic_Migrations

[Peterski]

Target: German
Distance: 0.0092% / 0.00918987

50.4 Early_Germanic
22.9 Keltic_Central_Euro
17.8 Slavic_Migrations
8.9 Roman

without Roman:

Target: German
Distance: 0.0118% / 0.01176013

41.7 Keltic_Central_Euro
39.3 Early_Germanic
19.0 Slavic_Migrations

How was this average calculated?

[Feiichy]

How was this average calculated?

Davidski sheets

[Peterski]

Davidski sheets

Well that's probably not a representative average.

[Feiichy]

Well that's probably not a representative average.

Average is meaningless anyhow, almost nobody in Germany plots like "average German" but rather like southern, NW or east German.

[Peterski]

Average is meaningless anyhow, almost nobody in Germany plots like "average German" but rather like southern, NW or east German.

I know but I am curious what is the average.

[Feiichy]

I know but I am curious what is the average.

you have weighted German average on K13, Rothaer made it:


German,42.05,27.91,13.69,6.10,6.31,1.23,0.86,0.16, 0.32,0.43,0.32,0.35,0.29

[Feiichy]

Target: German
Distance: 1.0611% / 1.06111486

41.2 German_Lower_Saxony_North
37.8 French_Central
21.0 Ukrainian_Northwest

[Ketchup]

nvm

[Peterski]

Rothaer do you have any estimate?

[Johnson Reed]

Rothaer do you have any estimate?

I wonder - are Poles more Germanic on average than Germans are Slavic? Pope John Paul II had German or Jewish ancestry.

[Peterski]

I wonder - are Poles more Germanic on average than Germans are Slavic?

Probably we have about as much of Germanic ancestry as Germans have Slavic ancestry.


Pope John Paul II had German or Jewish ancestry.

He had neither German nor Jewish ancestry. Where did you take this information from?

[Johnson Reed]

He had neither German nor Jewish ancestry. Where did you take this information from?

https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?389089-Pope-John-Paul-II-had-German-and-or-Jewish-ancestry&p=8076553#post8076553

He had great-grandparents with the surnames Hess and Scholz. Not sure if they were German or Jewish, both names could be either.

[Peterski]

https://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?389089-Pope-John-Paul-II-had-German-and-or-Jewish-ancestry&p=8076553#post8076553

He had great-grandparents with the surnames Hess and Scholz. Not sure if they were German or Jewish, both names could be either.

Interesting, I didn't know this. So it is possible that he had a few German great-grandparents or more distant ancestors.

[Johnson Reed]

Interesting, I didn't know this. So it is possible that he had a few German great-grandparents or more distant ancestors.

He was probably more Western-shifted than the average Cracovian.

[Peterski]

He was probably more Western-shifted than the average Cracovian.

I don't think so. It is not uncommon to have German-sounding surnames throughout Southern Poland.

There was substantial German Ostsiedlung there during the Late Middle Ages. And they became Polonized.

[rothaer]

Rothaer do you have any estimate?

Yes, I once tried a weighted average and got abt. 15%.

It depends on whether you add Transsilvanian Germans, Alsatians and Swiss Germans and also there is an error margin when making that average. Should you consider Germans from overseas?

My approach was to take the Germans in the German Empire area per November 1938.

+ Danzigers
+ Memellanders as far as they later migrated to remaining Germany (FRG and Austria)
+ interwar Poland Germans
+ all ethnic Germans that later migrated to remaining Germany, i. e. without immigrants from Russia that are notably ethnically mixed and not integrated in the German people, but incuding Transilvanian Germans Danube Swabians and (real) Germans from Russia
+ South Tyrol

- Upper Silesians that stayed there and integrated in Poles

Considering that all this can not be told when just is briefly asked for the average, it seems pointless to give anything else than an approximate figure.

[Mortimer]

Yes, I once tried a weighted average and got abt. 15%.

It depends on whether you add Transsilvanian Germans, Alsatians and Swiss Germans and also there is an error margin when making that average. Should you consider Germans from overseas?

My approach was to take the Germans in the German Empire area per November 1938

+ Danzigers
+ Memellanders as far as they later migrated to remaining Germany
+ interwar Poland Germans
+ all ethnic Germans that migrated to remaining Germany. i. e. without immigrants from Russia that are notably ethnically mixed and not integrated in the German people, but incuding Transilvanian Germans Danube Swabians and (real) Germans from Russia.
+ South Tyrol

- Upper Silesians that stayed there and integrated in Poles.

Considering that all this can not be told when just is briefly asked for the average, it seems pointless to give anything else than an approximate figure.

Hello rothaer, do you think my small baltic percentages are real? And do you think it could be modelled as "eastern german" or "northeastern german" like prussian? Do you know how i could find out if i can be modelled as a very small percent german, or to look if i have any german relatives on myheritage for example or 23andme? Do you know any good model lets say with G25 or Illustrive DNA how i could see if i can be modelled as a small percent german?

[Mortimer]

I searched on myheritage my matches with the search term german and have 12 matches, some are from the USA or netherlands though but they seem to have german surnames

Es werden 1–10 von 12 gefundenen DNA-Matches für ''German'' angezeigt

Alla Aizenberg
von: USA
Alla Aizenberg kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 5. Grades, Cousine 4. Grades des Elternteils, Cousine 4. Grades
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,4% (28,4‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
2
Gemeinsame Segmente
21,1‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 476 Personen, verwaltet von Ellina Mezheritsky aus den USA

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Stefan Smeenk
Alter: 30-39 Jahre
von: Niederlande
Stefan Smeenk kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousin 5. Grades
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,2% (16,1‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
2
Gemeinsame Segmente
8,4‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 692 Personen, von ihm verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
David Hugens
Alter: 20-29 Jahre
von: Niederlande
David kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Sohn d. Cousin/e 4. Grades, Cousin 5. Grades
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,2% (15,5‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
2
Gemeinsame Segmente
8‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 45 Personen, von ihm verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Eva Templin
Alter: 70-79 Jahre
von: USA
Eva kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 4. Grades des Elternteils
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,2% (14,0‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
2
Gemeinsame Segmente
7,5‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 11 Personen, von ihr verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Germana Cicuttini
Alter: 80-89 Jahre
DNA verwaltet von Lorenzo Bigot
Lorenzo kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 4. Grades des Elternteils
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,2% (13,8‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
2
Gemeinsame Segmente
7,1‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 2 Personen, verwaltet von Lorenzo Bigot aus Italien

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Dorothy Nelder
Alter: 40-49 Jahre
von: USA
Dorothy kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 5. Grades
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,2% (10,5‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
1
Gemeinsame Segmente
10,5‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 132 Personen, von ihr verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Anthony Gennaro
Alter: 40-49 Jahre
von: USA
Anthony kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousin 5. Grades
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,1% (10,2‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
1
Gemeinsame Segmente
10,2‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 57 Personen, von ihm verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Carol Jones
Alter: 50-59 Jahre
von: USA
Carol kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 5. Grades, Cousine 4. Grades des Elternteils
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,1% (8,7‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
1
Gemeinsame Segmente
8,7‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 67 Personen, von ihr verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Simone Jungermann
Alter: 50-59 Jahre
von: Deutschland
Simone kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 5. Grades
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,1% (8,5‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
1
Gemeinsame Segmente
8,5‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 3 Personen, von ihr verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Susan Denise Webster
Alter: 50-59 Jahre
DNA verwaltet von Tassiemum
Tassiemum kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 5. Grades
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,1% (8,3‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
1
Gemeinsame Segmente
8,3‎ cM
Größtes Segment


Tassiemum
von: Australien
Tassiemum kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 5. Grades
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,1% (8,3‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
1
Gemeinsame Segmente
8,3‎ cM
Größtes Segment
Erscheint in einem Stammbaum mit 1.649 Personen, von ihr verwaltet

DNA-Match überprüfen

Stammbaum ansehen
Marianne Nelder (born Jahn)
Alter: 80-89 Jahre
DNA verwaltet von Dorothy Nelder
Dorothy kontaktieren
voraussichtliche Verwandtschaft
Cousine 4. Grades des Elternteils
Zuverlässigkeit: Gering
Qualität des DNA-Matches?
0,1% (8,3‎ cM)
Gemeinsame DNA
1
Gemeinsame Segmente
8,3‎ cM
Größtes Segment

[Mortimer]

bump

[Peterski]

Yes, I once tried a weighted average and got abt. 15%.

Seems too low in my opinion. Did you use the 1939 census data for population size of each region?:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volksz%C3%A4hlung_im_Deutschen_Reich_1939

https://www.statistischebibliothek.de/mir/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/DEHeft_derivate_00032929/WiSta-Sonderbeilage-1941-09.pdf

[rothaer]

Seems too low in my opinion. Did you use the 1939 census data for population size of each region?:


It became lower than I first thought too. But the high population figures in Western Germany cause this. Also, Upper Saxons and Sudeten Germans are less Slavic than one might think.

1939 data: Yes, I think so. Ofc, for later immigrations I used the later data. But because of the heavy war losses I considered it okay to go on with the 1939 data without any growth. There are so many unclear relevant aspects that it would become pseudo exact to be very exact in one aspect.

[Peterski]

It become lower than I first thought.

1939 data: Yes, I think so. Ofc, for later immigrations I used the later data. But because of the heavy war losses I considered it okay to go on with the 1939 data without any growth. There are so many unclear relevant aspects that it would become pseudo exact to be very exact in one aspect.

When you look at Global25 results then even West Germans tend to score some Balto-Slavic. For example #Oda# scores about 5% in various calculators IIRC.

[rothaer]

When you look at Global25 results then even West Germans tend to score some Balto-Slavic. For example #Oda# scores about 5% in various calculators IIRC.

Yes, there might be such a real weak signal in Eastfalia. It could be true but the respective results for Alsatians f. i. seem wrong to me and some artefact.

#Oda# has some farer away ancestry from Mecklenburg too. I'm not sure of the proportion but these things have made her results acceptable as being considered applicable to me.

[Peterski]

Also, Upper Saxons and Sudeten Germans are less Slavic than one might think.

Samples labelled as "East_German" in Davidski's official G25 datasheet are Upper Saxons (they are from Leipzig). IIRC they have rather high Slavic.

[rothaer]

Samples labelled as "East_German" in Davidski's official G25 datasheet are Upper Saxons (they are from Leipzig). IIRC they have rather high Slavic.

Let's say 30-40%. They have all a notable Celtic-like admixture that reduces both their Germanic and Slavic.

[Peterski]

Let's say 30-40%. They have all a notable Celtic-like admixture that reduces both their Germanic and Slavic.

in Feiichy's new calculator the ones from Leipzig score 44%:

Target: German_East
Distance: 1.5104% / 0.01510361
44.0 Slavic
36.2 Germanic
14.2 Keltic
5.6 Meddish

How many samples from Upper Saxony do you have in K36?

[Madonna]

You need to read lot of history, Poland was always a place back then when various religious group could free so there were many westerns like Dutch and Germans coming into Poland due to religion freedom in XVI, XVII century. I didnt know this they were coming to all part of Poland, I got it from some historians. I was also surprised to discover in my own maternal line 3 german surnames : Mistal ( who came from Schwabbien area), Scharlei ( which names was polnized to Szarlej and I had seen chruch records how they develop and changed through generation) and the last one Piznal which is Silesian origin. My mother DNA located her somewhere close to Kashubian people. So studing your own tree is very important I was able to find them up till XVII century which is spectacular.

[rothaer]

in Feiichy's new calculator the ones from Leipzig score 44%:

Target: German_East
Distance: 1.5104% / 0.01510361
44.0 Slavic
36.2 Germanic
14.2 Keltic
5.6 Meddish

How many samples from Upper Saxony do you have in K36?

Five.

And four that do also comprise ancestry from directly neigbouring areas. Check your mail. Feel free to tell the Slavic proportions.

[Peterski]

Based on the estimates which you provided the average Balto-Slavic admixture for the whole German Empire is 21%.