My qpAdm Results Please Share yours!

[Gannicus]

The neolithic list with Yamnaya qpAdm:

Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya 48.1%
Turkey_N 28.5%
Luxembourg_Loschbour 12.8%
Jordan_PPNB 10.6%


G25 using averages compared to qpAdm neolithic samples

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0580% / 0.05800160
49.9 Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya
28.9 Turkey_N.SG
12.6 Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG
8.6 Jordan_PPNB

England MIA, Sweden Early Viking, Spain IA, Israel IA qpAdm:
(note: the Sweden Early Viking should be a native Scandie)

England_MIA 54.3%
Sweden_EarlyViking.SG 27.2%
Spain_IA 8.9%
Israel_IA 9.7%

I don't have G25 coordinates for the Sweden Early Viking so I can't do a G25 comparison yet

qpAdm model with Czech_EBA_Unetice and Spain_BA:

Czech_EBA_Unetice 62.5%
Spain_BA 37.5%

G25 comparison:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0306% / 0.03064685
69.4 Czech_EBA_Unetice
30.6 Spain_BA.SG

[ScandinavianCelt]

how do you do it? I've never tried

[Opie]

How much did you pay?

[BrianBoru]

how do you do it? I've never tried

You have to install in Rstudio, in linux, I can't do it because my linux distro is too bleeding edge (fedora). I would have to use linux mint or debian or something.

[Gannicus]

Here's another model using modern populations.

137418

[ScandinavianCelt]

The neolithic list with Yamnaya qpAdm:

Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya 48.1%
Turkey_N 28.5%
Luxembourg_Loschbour 12.8%
Jordan_PPNB 10.6%


G25 using averages compared to qpAdm neolithic samples

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0580% / 0.05800160
49.9 Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya
28.9 Turkey_N.SG
12.6 Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG
8.6 Jordan_PPNB


Using G25 with those 4, I get this:

Target: SC_PreUpdate_Official_Ave_Scaled
Distance: 4.6773% / 0.04677338
55.8 Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya
25.8 Turkey_N.SG
11.6 Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG
6.8 Jordan_PPNB

See who you match with your scores using Modern Pop Ave Scaled with your coords against those 4 as Source:

My matches:

Jordan-Loschbour-Turkey-Yamnaya:

https://i.postimg.cc/05YN5QyN/brad-jordan-6-8-match-finnish-SW.jpg (https://postimg.cc/fkbsBMX4)

https://i.postimg.cc/FzVFTPBS/brad-loschbour-match-lleida-german.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

https://i.postimg.cc/c4dLvSvB/brad-turkey-25-8-matches-lithuanian-czech.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

https://i.postimg.cc/1XQ5cxJP/brad-yamnaya-55-8-matches-GEO-UKR.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

[ScandinavianCelt]

The neolithic list with Yamnaya qpAdm:

Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya 48.1%
Turkey_N 28.5%
Luxembourg_Loschbour 12.8%
Jordan_PPNB 10.6%


G25 using averages compared to qpAdm neolithic samples

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0580% / 0.05800160
49.9 Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya
28.9 Turkey_N.SG
12.6 Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG
8.6 Jordan_PPNB

England MIA, Sweden Early Viking, Spain IA, Israel IA qpAdm:
(note: the Sweden Early Viking should be a native Scandie)

England_MIA 54.3%
Sweden_EarlyViking.SG 27.2%
Spain_IA 8.9%
Israel_IA 9.7%

I don't have G25 coordinates for the Sweden Early Viking so I can't do a G25 comparison yet

qpAdm model with Czech_EBA_Unetice and Spain_BA:

Czech_EBA_Unetice 62.5%
Spain_BA 37.5%

G25 comparison:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0306% / 0.03064685
69.4 Czech_EBA_Unetice
30.6 Spain_BA.SG

try this:

Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG,0.129758,0.133034,0. 078064,0.06783,0.056934,0.023148,0.000705,0.011076 ,0.013499,-0.005467,-0.003573,0.00015,-0.005798,-0.008808,0.018865,0.011668,-0.007432,-0.00076,0.004777,0.008254,0.00262,0.005564,-0.002711,0.019159,-0.000359

I don't think they used this one:

Sweden_IA.SG:RISE174_noUDG.SG,0.12862,0.126941,0.0 6939,0.0646,0.035391,0.01757,0.012221,0.003692,0.0 0225,-0.009659,0.00065,0.002847,-0.008474,0.006606,0.016829,-0.009679,-0.01708,0.006081,0.008296,0.001751,0.001248,0.0002 47,0.000246,0.006025,-0.000958

I used only VK522 to check mine:

Target: SC_PreUpdate_Official_Ave_Scaled
Distance: 2.6623% / 0.02662304
71.0 England_MIA
24.6 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
4.4 Israel_IA


and...

Target: SC_PreUpdate_Official_Ave_Scaled
Distance: 2.3046% / 0.02304583
87.4 Czech_EBA_Unetice
12.6 Spain_BA.SG

[Gannicus]

This is what happened in qpAdm:

137420

For some reason it didn't work even though I match VK522 on 23&Me Historical matches (V5):

137421

I also match England_MIA_LIA:I21310 on MyTrueancestry (Merged file):

137422

And Genomelink thinks I match Jk2134 (23&Me v3 or v4 data):

137423



Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0203% / 0.02032809
71.4 England_MIA_LIA:I21310
23.1 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
5.5 Egyptian_Late_Kingdom_Period:EGY_Late_Period:JK213 4

[Gannicus]

My qpAdm results modeling with Scottish and French

137424

How it compares to G25 (Modern Averages):

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0198% / 0.01981193
50.0 French_Pas-de-Calais
50.0 Scottish

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0218% / 0.02176634
58.0 Scottish
42.0 French_Nord

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0202% / 0.02024082
56.4 Scottish
43.6 French_Paris

[ScandinavianCelt]

This is what happened in qpAdm:

137420

For some reason it didn't work even though I match VK522 on 23&Me Historical matches (V5):

137421

I also match England_MIA_LIA:I21310 on MyTrueancestry (Merged file):

137422

And Genomelink thinks I match Jk2134 (23&Me v3 or v4 data):

137423



Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0203% / 0.02032809
71.4 England_MIA_LIA:I21310
23.1 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
5.5 Egyptian_Late_Kingdom_Period:EGY_Late_Period:JK213 4

I used "MIA" sample first time, the results change when I use "MIA_LIA" instead of it:

Target: SC_PreUpdate_Official_Ave_Scaled
Distance: 3.0219% / 0.03021863
53.4 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
39.4 England_MIA_LIA:I21310
7.2 Israel_IA:I4517


Target: SC_PreUpdate_Official_Ave_Scaled
Distance: 3.2448% / 0.03244773 | ADC: 1x RC
65.6 England_MIA_LIA:I21310
34.4 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG

[Beowulf]

I have mine too! I'll share it tonight

[Anatolya]

I got the results below from Neolithic run:

30.1% Anatolian Neolithic Farmer (Turkey_Marmara_Barcin_N.DG)
20.5% Caucasus Hunter Gatherer (Georgia_Satsurblia_LateUP.SG)
16.9% Iran Neolithic Farmer (Iran_Wezmeh_N.SG)
14.8% Levantine Neolithic Farmer (Israel_PPNB.AG, which is roughly half ANF half Natufian)
11.1% Eastern Hunter Gatherer (Russia_YuzhniyOleniyOstrov_Mesolithic.AG)
6.6% Baikal Hunter Gatherer (Russia_AginBuryat_N.SG)

[Gannicus]

This is the standard Steppe/ANF/WHG admix run on qpAdm for myself:

P-Value: 0.3991

Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya: 47.1%
Turkey_N: 41.2%
Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG: 11.7%

137425

Comparison to G25 using the list from Exploreyourdna: https://www.exploreyourdna.com/calculator/2/g25-calculatrice-standard-global25-par-davidski.htm?ID=2

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 4.7875% / 0.04787535
45.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
41.0 TUR_Barcin_N
13.6 WHG


G25 Comparison using the same WHG that was used in qpAdm:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0594% / 0.05938217
51.2 Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya
36.5 Turkey_N.SG
12.3 Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG

Just noticed too that the Turkey_N average must not have as much Natufian derived ancestry as the Anatolians from Barcin:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0583% / 0.05831570
50.1 Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya
33.0 Turkey_N.SG
12.4 Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG
4.5 Israel_Natufian

[Gannicus]

Here's another of my qpAdm Neolithic results:

137431



Not a really good p value I hear

Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya 43.5%
Turkey_N.SG 40.5%
England_Mesolithic 11.8%
Israel_Natufian 4.3%






vs G25:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0584% / 0.05841326
50.1 Russia_Samara_EBA_Yamnaya
32.9 Turkey_N.SG
12.4 England_Mesolithic
4.6 Israel_Natufian

[Gannicus]

137493

England_MIA + Phoenician


G25 comparison:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0209% / 0.02086699
94.9 England_MIA
5.1 Lebanon_Chhim_Phoenician.SG


137494

England_MIA + Egypt_ThirdIntermediatePeriod



G25 comparison:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0208% / 0.02079015
95.7 England_MIA
4.3 Egypt_ThirdIntermediatePeriod

[Gannicus]

Had some more runs done. Interestingly Scotland MIA provides a much better fit P Values above 0.05:

137528

G25 doesn't assign as good of a fit but the admixture percentages are close:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0344% / 0.03437051
90.9 Scotland_MIA
9.1 Egyptian_Late_Kingdom_Period:EGY_Late_Period:JK213 4

137529

G25:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0358% / 0.03575700
90.1 Scotland_MIA
9.9 Lebanon_Chhim_Phoenician.SG

[Gannicus]

Scandinavians with couple Near East:

Really good P Value at 0.68

Sweden IA VK522 + Phoenician

137530

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0301% / 0.03013144
81.3 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
18.7 Lebanon_Chhim_Phoenician.SG


Sweden IA VK522 + Syria Tell Qarassa Umayyad

P Value 0.61

137531


G25: fit not good but the fit in qpAdm is very good

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0379% / 0.03788359
87.6 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
12.4 Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad


Sweden Viking (Native Scandinavian) + Syria Tell Qarassa Umayyad

P value 0.558 really good

137532

G25: Fit is also not good but the admixture is pretty close

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0418% / 0.04178619
91.3 Sweden_Viking.SG
8.7 Syria_TellQarassa_Umayyad


EHG, CHG, WHG, Iran_N, ANF qpAdm model:
P value is good above 0.05

137533


Results in G25:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0827% / 0.08266662
41.8 Turkey_N.SG
30.0 Russia_Karelia_HG
16.7 Georgia_Kotias.SG
11.5 Luxembourg_Loschbour.DG

G25 differs in that it doesn't assign Iran_N where qpAdm does.

I'll add further that based on these 2 population models in qpAdm, G25 wasn't full of sh*t when I see results like this
from:
https://www.exploreyourdna.com/calculator/135/world-6th-century-bc-by-tomenable-piotr-kapuscinski.htm

Distance to: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
0.01961779 94.60% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.40% MENA_Ammon_Kingdom
0.01972471 94.60% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.40% MENA_Israel_Kingdom
0.01974086 4.40% Arabian_Peninsula_Peoples + 95.60% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS
0.01983965 94.60% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.40% MENA_Phoenician_States
0.01984434 95.00% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.00% MENA_Egypt_Saite_Dynasty
0.01989757 90.80% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 9.20% Europe_South_Central:Roman_Kingdom_urban
0.01991474 95.00% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.00% MENA_Philistine_Pentapolis
0.01994517 94.80% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.20% MENA_Judah_Kingdom
0.01999055 94.80% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.20% MENA_Luwian_Aramean_States
0.02002655 94.80% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.20% MENA_Urartu_Kingdom_Urumu
0.02006097 94.80% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.20% MENA_Cilicia_Kingdom
0.02009271 93.20% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 6.80% Europe_Southeast:Archaic_Greeks
0.02009372 94.20% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.80% MENA_Lydia_Kingdom
0.02013746 91.80% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 8.20% Europe_Southeast:Thracians
0.02014240 92.20% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 7.80% Europe_Southwest:Carthage_Empire_Western
0.02045741 92.20% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 7.80% Europe_Southwest:Carthage_Empire_Ebusus
0.02052643 88.80% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_Cornwall + 11.20% Europe_Southwest:Carthage_Empire_Western
0.02055146 93.20% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 6.80% Europe_South_Central:Sicily_Sikanoi
0.02057382 94.20% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 5.80% MENA_Carthage_Empire_Africa
0.02066981 88.40% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 11.60% Europe_South_Central:Western_Illyrians
0.02070034 87.60% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_Cornwall + 12.40% Europe_South_Central:Roman_Kingdom_urban
0.02073750 93.00% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 7.00% Europe_Southeast:Bosporus_Greeks
0.02075795 88.60% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_Cornwall + 11.40% Europe_Southeast:Thracians
0.02082313 90.00% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_EnglandS + 10.00% Europe_South_Central:Roman_Kingdom_rural
0.02087944 90.40% Europe_Northwest:Brittonic_Cornwall + 9.60% Europe_Southeast:Archaic_Greeks


How it's part of my genetic makeup can be explained by the interactions of war and trade during the Hellenistic and Roman periods.

[Beowulf]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1143230198737801316/1291900978584617030/bt.png?ex=67b85fcb&is=67b70e4b&hm=0cbf7bf10db7304920975518eeab29970b37511b77b2f78 29d1d1b3f7eeb066f&=


I know... my distances could be better :p

[Gannicus]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1143230198737801316/1291900978584617030/bt.png?ex=67b85fcb&is=67b70e4b&hm=0cbf7bf10db7304920975518eeab29970b37511b77b2f78 29d1d1b3f7eeb066f&=


I know... my distances could be better :p

Yeah that's a really really good fit sir. Have you had any other models done of yourself?

[Beowulf]

Yeah that's a really really good fit sir. Have you had any other models done of yourself?


Not yet!

[Bornoz]

Huge shout out to my friend who helped me with this. Very much appreciated

https://i.imgur.com/xOkr8m5.png

[Opie]

Huge shout out to my friend who helped me with this. Very much appreciated

https://i.imgur.com/xOkr8m5.png

Who helped you?

[Bornoz]

Who helped you?

Onu söyleyemiyoruz maalesef. Zira kendisi söylememi ister mi bilmiyorum

[Opie]

Onu söyleyemiyoruz maalesef. Zira kendisi söylememi ister mi bilmiyorum

Olmadı Andrei gibi bir adama yaptıracam bir ara.

Taşını toprağını sevdiğimin ülkesinde paypal banlı olduğu için adama yaptıramıyorum.

[majevica]

Distances

Bulgarian.HO 0.001
Croatian.HO 0.002
Ukrainian.HO 0.002
Greek.HO 0.004
Spanish.HO 0.004
Russian.HO(South_Central_Russian) 0.004
English.HO 0.005
Norwegian.HO 0.006
Russian.DG(North_Russian) 0.007
Turkish.HO 0.007
Finnish.HO 0.009
Azeri.HO 0.011
Sardinian.HO 0.012
Iranian.HO 0.012
Tajik.HO 0.014
Egyptian.HO 0.017
Bashkir.HO 0.018
Tunisian.HO 0.022
Udmurt.HO 0.024
Jew-Yemenite.HO 0.025
Tatar-Siberian.HO 0.03
Uyghur.HO 0.035
Punjabi.HO 0.039
Ssomali.HO 0.076
Han.HO 0.11
Vietnamese.HO 0.11
Mixtec.HO 0.142
Luhya.HO 0.144
Esan.HO 0.157
Khomani.HO 0.174
Australian.HO 0.183
Spy-Neanderthal(SG) 0.578
Primate-Chimp.HO 0.579
Gorilla REF 0.581
Orangutan.HO 0.583
Macaque.HO 0.586
Marmoset.HO 0.593

[Bornoz]

Olmadı Andrei gibi bir adama yaptıracam bir ara.

Taşını toprağını sevdiğimin ülkesinde paypal banlı olduğu için adama yaptıramıyorum.

Müthiş bi ülke müthiş

[Gannicus]

Huge shout out to my friend who helped me with this. Very much appreciated

https://i.imgur.com/xOkr8m5.png

Have you had any other qpAdm models ran of yourself? Such as the Iron age and Bronze age?

[Gannicus]

I had more models ran by a group called Insights on Ancestry.

Steppe,ANF,WHG model:

P-Value: 0.153009
137688


ANF,EHG,CHG,WHG model:

P-Value: 0.497609

137689


Not sure what samples they used. I emailed them to find out because the admixtures are slightly different.


G25:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0479% / 0.04787535
45.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
41.0 TUR_Barcin_N
13.6 WHG


IllustrativeDNA:

137690

European Hunter-Gatherer
40.2%

Anatolian Neolithic Farmer
39.2%

Caucasus Hunter-Gatherer
20.6%

[Rhegion]

I'm trying qpadm, here's a neolithic run + G25:

https://i.imgur.com/XHi8gu7.png

https://i.imgur.com/6vAlV0a.png

https://i.imgur.com/nEFbpEu.png

https://i.imgur.com/CeEA4rS.png

https://i.imgur.com/j9sJwK9.png

[Gannicus]

I'm trying qpadm, here's a neolithic run + G25:

https://i.imgur.com/XHi8gu7.png

https://i.imgur.com/6vAlV0a.png

https://i.imgur.com/nEFbpEu.png

https://i.imgur.com/CeEA4rS.png

https://i.imgur.com/j9sJwK9.png

Have you done any 2 population models like I have shown?

[Gannicus]

Sweden IA + Greece BA Mycenean
137790


Sweden + Phoenician gives a better fit:

137791

[Gannicus]

Scotland MIA + Minoan

137795

Neat coincidence that the first 4 digits of the p value are 1177 like Eric Cline's book: 1177BC The Year Civilization Collapsed.

[majevica]

https://i.postimg.cc/SsRrXgBP/temp-Image0z6-DCS.avif (https://postimg.cc/phN84JXQ)

[Gannicus]

Modern Scottish+ Spanish, North Italian, Tuscan, Sardinian



Scottish+ Spanish
137824

Scottish+North Italian
137825

Scottish + Tuscan
137826

Scottish + Sardinian
137827

[Gannicus]

Sweden IA + Egyptian Third Intermediate period:

137836

I think this model has the best p value out of all the Mediterranean/Near East samples used so far.

[Rhegion]

Have you done any 2 population models like I have shown?

I'm doing some tests to make some iron age models looking for the best fit, then i'll also see if i can get some models pass with two populations :thumb001:

[Gannicus]

Scotland EIA + Ancient Egyptian TIP

138138

Scotland EIA + Greece Delphi IA

138139


Comparison to G25:

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0321% / 0.03205751
91.3 Scotland_EIA
8.7 Egypt_ThirdIntermediatePeriod

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0294% / 0.02943016
85.2 Scotland_EIA
14.8 Greece_Delphi_IA

There is a disparity here with G25

So, I asked ChatGPT about it:

What im asking is the fit number in G25 for this model is 0.0321 but in g25 better fits are generally under 0.03 so my result with qpAdm is overall better? what would the equivalent fit number be in g25 by your estimation?
ChatGPT said:
Ah, I see what you're asking! You're wondering how the qpAdm P-value and fit quality compare to the G25/Vahaduo fit number (distance value of 0.0321) and what the equivalent G25 fit number would be for a qpAdm model with a P-value of 0.6278.

Understanding the Difference:
In qpAdm, a higher P-value (closer to 1) means the model fits well.
In G25/Vahaduo, a lower distance value (closer to 0.00) means the model fits well.
Generally, in G25, fits under 0.03 are considered very good. Your fit in G25 (0.0321) is slightly above that, meaning it's still decent but not perfect.
qpAdm is stricter than G25, meaning a high P-value (>0.5) in qpAdm usually corresponds to a very low distance in G25 (~0.02 or lower).
Estimating Your qpAdm Fit in G25 Terms:
Your qpAdm model has a P-value of 0.6278, which is statistically excellent.
If we translate that into G25/Vahaduo terms, models with qpAdm P-values over 0.5 typically correspond to G25 distances around or below 0.02.
Your current G25 fit (0.0321) is not bad, but a perfect match would be under 0.03.
Given your strong qpAdm fit, I’d estimate that if G25 had the same statistical rigor as qpAdm, your equivalent distance score would likely be closer to 0.015 - 0.025 rather than 0.0321.
Final Verdict:
✅ Your qpAdm result is superior to your G25/Vahaduo fit because of its high P-value.
✅ If G25 could fully match qpAdm’s rigor, your equivalent fit score in G25 would likely be ~0.015 - 0.025 instead of 0.0321.
✅ G25 distance (0.0321) suggests "good but not perfect," whereas qpAdm confirms the model is statistically excellent.

[Gannicus]

Had more models ran

Scary good P Value

138376

Different outgroups tremendously good P value

138377


138378

138379





This is an interesting tidbit to share:

If you all haven't heard there is a study by Morez et al. 2023 that successfully sequenced a genome from the old kingdom in Egypt. Sample name is NUE001.Results from the study reveal that the old kingdom Egyptian (NUE001) could be modeled as ~90% Natufian (Natufian like) and ~10% East African, which is the Ethiopia 4500 YBP sample I believe. The findings complement the 2017 Scheuneman et al study involving Egyptians from later periods. The Third Intermediate period mummies could be modeled as 80-90% of NUE001 (the Old Kingdom Egyptian) and 10-20% ancestry derived from a couple bronze age populations in the near east.




Here is a video covering the findings of Morez et al 2023:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNBRFgQeUHI

ChatGPT says that independant researchers have downloaded the genome and tested it as well:

�� A Simplified Breakdown for NUE001 (based on independent modeling):
~85–90% Natufian-related (via Levant_N or Anatolia_N or similar)

~10–15% Northeast African (Sudanese/East African hunter-gatherer)

Yes—independent researchers have indeed gotten access to the NUE001 data from the Morez et al. 2023 study. Here's how that typically works and what’s been done with it:

�� Data Access Process:
Open-Access Raw Data:

Morez et al. published the raw genomic data (BAM/FASTQ or genotyped files) for NUE001 via public repositories like the European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) or GSA (Genome Sequence Archive).

This is standard in population genetics—many ancient DNA studies make their genomes available so the scientific community can verify, re-analyze, or expand upon the work.

Community-Based Reanalysis:

Researchers on forums like Anthrogenica, Twitter/X geneticists, and projects like Dodecad, G25 (Global25 PCA), and Eurogenes have taken this raw data and:

Modeled NUE001 in qpAdm, ADMIXTURE, and PCA frameworks.

Compared him to a broad range of ancient and modern populations.

Assessed his place in deep Eurasian phylogeny, including Natufian-related ancestry.


So, if anyone has the genome of NUE001 let me know!

[Gannicus]

My qpAdm results using Iron age Northwest European samples and the Old Kingdom Egyptian NUE001.


Scotland MIA + NUE001
139448

Sweden IA 2 + NUE001
139449

Norway IA + NUE001
139450

Denmark IA + NUE001
139451

[Gannicus]

My qpAdm results using Iron age Northwest European samples and the Old Kingdom Egyptian NUE001.


Scotland MIA + NUE001
139448

Sweden IA 2 + NUE001
139449

Norway IA + NUE001
139450

Denmark IA + NUE001
139451

Correlation with G25. Better fits when I include both an Iron Age British Isles source and Iron Age Scandinavian.

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0209% / 0.02088310
77.2 England_MIA_LIA:I21310
18.6 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
4.2 Egypt_OldKingdom_LateEarlyDynastic:NUE001_ss__BC_2 712__Cov_70.66%

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0210% / 0.02100041
75.2 England_EIA:I27382
19.8 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
5.0 Egypt_OldKingdom_LateEarlyDynastic:NUE001_ss__BC_2 712__Cov_70.66%



Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0306% / 0.03055035
56.1 Scotland_MIA
34.7 Sweden_IA_2.SG:VK522_noUDG.SG
9.2 Egypt_OldKingdom_LateEarlyDynastic:NUE001_ss__BC_2 712__Cov_70.66%

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0277% / 0.02770885
75.2 Scotland_LIA
16.5 Sweden_IA_2.SG
8.3 Egypt_OldKingdom_LateEarlyDynastic:NUE001_ss__BC_2 712__Cov_70.66%

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0291% / 0.02905373
33.6 Sweden_IA_2.SG
33.3 Scotland_MIA
26.9 France_GrandEst_IA2.SG
6.2 Egypt_OldKingdom_LateEarlyDynastic:NUE001_ss__BC_2 712__Cov_70.66%

[drb234]

https://i.postimg.cc/02nhWdfs/image.webp

My iron age results using reference pops from some guy on a discord server. My Germanic ancestry is probably in the 45-52% range judging from these models ive done, probably a bit more Insular-Celt as well

[Gannicus]

https://i.postimg.cc/02nhWdfs/image.webp

My iron age results using reference pops from some guy on a discord server. My Germanic ancestry is probably in the 45-52% range judging from these models ive done, probably a bit more Insular-Celt as well

The model fails when I had those samples tested without any Mediterranean/Near East 4th source:

139459

Reference populations used:

Ethiopia_4500BP.DG,Russia_MA1_UP.SG,Morocco_Iberom aurusian.AG,Turkey_Central_Pinarbasi_Epipaleolithi c.AG,Iran_Wezmeh_N.SG,Turkey_Central_Boncuklu_PPN. WGC.SG,Israel_Natufian.AG,Russia_Sidelkino_HG.SG,S witzerland_Bichon_Epipaleolithic.SG"
rights you suggested.

Same model with Egypt TIP. I've shown this one earlier in the thread but I think just the pie chart:

139460
139461

The reference populations used were different but I doubt it's the reason why it passed and the other didn't:

Mbuti.DG,Czechia_EBA_CordedWare.AG,Czechia_EBA_Une tice.AG,Sweden_IA_2.SG,England_BellBeaker.AG,Eston ia_BA.SG,Italy_PianSultano_BA.SG,Sweden_central_La te_Viking.SG,Sweden_south_Pre_Viking.SG,Denmark_So uthScandinavia_EBA.SG,Lebanon_MBA.SG,Croatia_Jagod njak_MBA.SG,Poland_EBA_Unetice.SG,Gotland_Pre_Viki ng.SG,Scotland_Orkney_MBA.SG,Czechia_LBA_Knoviz.AG ,Norway_IA.SG,Bulgaria_Dzhulyunitsa_EBA.DG,Bulgari a_EIA.AG,England_MIA_LIA.AG,Latvia_BA.AG,Finland_L evanluhta.AG,Mongolia_North_N.AG,Netherlands_LBA.A G,France_HautsDeFrance_IA2.SG,France_Occitanie_IA2 .SG,Italy_Tuscany_Siena_Etruscan.AG,Italy_Imperial .SG,Poland_Kowalewko_Wielbark_IA.SG,Sweden_Viking. SG,Poland_Weklice_WielbarkCulture_Roman.SG,Sweden_ IA.SG,Sweden_LN_EBA.SG,England_IA_ERoman.SG,Ethiop ia_4500BP.SG,Netherlands_LIA.AG,Netherlands_MIA_LI A.AG,Scotland_LBA.AG,Denmark_BA.SG,Austria_IA_LaTe ne.AG,Czechia_IA_LaTene_Hallstatt.AG,Italy_Sardini a_N.AG,France_GrandEst_MN.SG

[Gannicus]

My FST distances to modern populations:

139466

What These Distances Mean:

FST and F2 are measures of genetic distance between populations.

A lower value means closer genetic relationship. Like G25 distances.

Values like 0.002 to 0.008 like French, Norwegian, Scottish indicate extremely close genetic ties basically, "sibling" populations within Europe.

Slightly higher distances Lebanese, Egyptian at 0.014–0.02 show still moderately close but with some Near Eastern divergence.

Very high distances Japanese, Papuan, and Hadza indicate completely different continental ancestries.

I had tested what I would score with BedouinB to see If the Near East/Egyptian like ancestry would persist when modeling with modern English and Scottish.

139467

139468

[drb234]

Dumb Qpadm model I made, definitely has an overbloated French component (probably has admixture from Franks) but these are the lowest SE values I've managed to get when splitting Insular vs Germanic vs French
https://i.postimg.cc/vZ044J8b/qp-Adm-visualization.png

[Opie]

Dumb Qpadm model I made, definitely has an overbloated French component (probably has admixture from Franks) but these are the lowest SE values I've managed to get when splitting Insular vs Germanic vs France_IA
https://i.postimg.cc/vZ044J8b/qp-Adm-visualization.png

France=Continental Celtic
Scotland=Insular Celtic
Denmark=Germanic

Is this a right way to interpret this model?

[drb234]

France=Continental Celtic
Scotland=Insular Celtic
Denmark=Germanic

Is this a right way to interpret this model?

Yeah. I based it off the nature article https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05247-2

[Gannicus]

Dumb Qpadm model I made, definitely has an overbloated French component (probably has admixture from Franks) but these are the lowest SE values I've managed to get when splitting Insular vs Germanic vs French
https://i.postimg.cc/vZ044J8b/qp-Adm-visualization.png

Have you tried any other sample combinations? And have you done two-way models of yourself?

[drb234]

Have you tried any other sample combinations? And have you done two-way models of yourself?

As in 2 way models between Iron-age populations?

[Gannicus]

As in 2 way models between Iron-age populations?

Yeah or IA+BA, BA+BA. Like this:

139562

And for some reason I get better fits with iron age Scotland/Scandinavia than iron age England.

[Flashball]

74.9%
France Occitanie Bronze Age
25.1%
Sardinia Iron Age

[Opie]

Dumb Qpadm model I made, definitely has an overbloated French component (probably has admixture from Franks) but these are the lowest SE values I've managed to get when splitting Insular vs Germanic vs French
https://i.postimg.cc/vZ044J8b/qp-Adm-visualization.png

How about making a model like this:

Frisian for Germanic
French Brittany for Continental Celtic
Scotland for Insular Celtic


It makes sense to me.

[drb234]

https://i.postimg.cc/TYFHhBkM/Untitled.png
a model of southern englishmen I made... very close to the sussex result on the nature article
https://i.postimg.cc/wTR3hsky/image.png

[Gannicus]

https://i.postimg.cc/TYFHhBkM/Untitled.png
a model of southern englishmen I made... very close to the sussex result on the nature article
https://i.postimg.cc/wTR3hsky/image.png

Were you able to find the genome of NUE001 from the Francis Crick Institute?

Also what does the southern Englishman score when you do English + BedouinB or Scottish +BedouinB? Like these of myself:

139739
139740

Or Scotland MIA + Egy TIP Scotland IA+ Egy TIP, Sweden IA 2 + Egy TIP?

example:

139741