Peterski
06-11-2025, 10:39 PM
Estimates of effective population size according to Leonid Vyazov:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyGkhVQk_5s&t=17635s
Year 625 BC:
Slavs - ca. 22,000
Balts - ca. 10,000
Year 1 AD:
Slavs - ca. 36,000
Balts - ca. 14,000
Year 500 AD:
Slavs - ca. 50,000
Balts - ca. 18,000
https://i.imgur.com/wV955yR.png
And according to Fernandes et al. 2021, census (real) population is unlikely to be more than 10 times larger than effective:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03053-2
Quote: "Census sizes are unlikely to be more than tenfold larger than effective population sizes".
=====
So we have the following sizes of real population (assuming that it is 10 times larger than effective) according to Vyazov:
Year 625 BC:
Slavs - ca. 220,000
Balts - ca. 100,000
Year 1 AD:
Slavs - ca. 360,000
Balts - ca. 140,000
Year 500 AD:
Slavs - ca. 500,000
Balts - ca. 180,000
=====
On the other hand Joscha Gretzinger said in his lecture (but he did not say for which year / years are these estimates):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npc5Q2BoGRI#t=1h05m57s
"It can also be used for effective population size, for example we did this for the Slavic populations, Slavic period populations. Using runs of homozygosity one can estimate effective population size between 10,000 and 20,000 individuals."
"You can use of course IBD segments and these probably represent the actual census population sizes. Based on those we can see that for example in Ukraine we have like 50,000-60,000 individuals and in Eastern Germany as well."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyGkhVQk_5s&t=17635s
Year 625 BC:
Slavs - ca. 22,000
Balts - ca. 10,000
Year 1 AD:
Slavs - ca. 36,000
Balts - ca. 14,000
Year 500 AD:
Slavs - ca. 50,000
Balts - ca. 18,000
https://i.imgur.com/wV955yR.png
And according to Fernandes et al. 2021, census (real) population is unlikely to be more than 10 times larger than effective:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03053-2
Quote: "Census sizes are unlikely to be more than tenfold larger than effective population sizes".
=====
So we have the following sizes of real population (assuming that it is 10 times larger than effective) according to Vyazov:
Year 625 BC:
Slavs - ca. 220,000
Balts - ca. 100,000
Year 1 AD:
Slavs - ca. 360,000
Balts - ca. 140,000
Year 500 AD:
Slavs - ca. 500,000
Balts - ca. 180,000
=====
On the other hand Joscha Gretzinger said in his lecture (but he did not say for which year / years are these estimates):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npc5Q2BoGRI#t=1h05m57s
"It can also be used for effective population size, for example we did this for the Slavic populations, Slavic period populations. Using runs of homozygosity one can estimate effective population size between 10,000 and 20,000 individuals."
"You can use of course IBD segments and these probably represent the actual census population sizes. Based on those we can see that for example in Ukraine we have like 50,000-60,000 individuals and in Eastern Germany as well."