If there was no Holocaust and all Polish Jews mixed with Poles - G25 coordinates

[Peterski]

I created two simulated G25 averages for such a scenario, the first one assumes that Poles and Polish Jews (Ashkenazi_Poland) mixed in proportion 9:1, while the second one assumes that they mixed in proportion 85:15 (because in the territory of Russian Poland and Austrian Poland the percent of Jews among the population was actually closer to 15%):


Polish_New_A,0.1286677,0.1300273,0.0621474,0.04766 42,0.0375881,0.0180008,0.0077221,0.0096873,-0.0000199,-0.0152702,-0.0037977,-0.0058364,0.0120717,0.0167827,-0.0067361,-0.0006714,0.0010149,-0.0000634,0.0023448,0.0007519,-0.0030839,-0.0030343,0.0052143,-0.0027828,0.0000735
Polish_New_B,0.1270816,0.130406,0.0582871,0.042627 3,0.0360442,0.0161447,0.0072442,0.0090994,0.000436 6,-0.0136288,-0.003522,-0.0055451,0.011561,0.0158596,-0.0065922,-0.0007271,0.0007494,-0.0000581,0.0021697,0.0004844,-0.0030614,-0.002992,0.0050184,-0.0025077,0.0001542

Here the one which is 90% Polish + 10% Jewish:


<tbody>
Distance to:
Polish_New_A


0.01099459
Ukrainian_Lviv


0.01266113
Ukrainian_Zakarpattia


0.01714532
Czech


0.01997395
Slovakian


0.02145615
Polish_Silesian


0.02147247
Moldovan_o


0.02201096
Ukrainian_Rivne


0.02216868
Ukrainian_Zhytomyr


0.02257949
Ukrainian_Sumy


0.02334087
Hungarian

</tbody>

And the one which is 85% Polish + 15% Jewish:


<tbody>
Distance to:
Polish_New_B


0.00988084
Ukrainian_Zakarpattia


0.01414263
Ukrainian_Lviv


0.01712680
Czech


0.01816393
Hungarian


0.01862710
Croatian


0.01942804
Slovenian


0.02210898
Moldovan_o


0.02232119
Slovakian


0.02439542
Polish_Silesian


0.02531935
German_East

</tbody>

[Peterski]

Wandal thumbed down my post, I wonder why?

[cass]

Target: Polish_New_B
Distance: 0.2110% / 0.00211032 | ADC: 0.25x RC
49.8 Polish
27.0 Croatian
12.0 Ukrainian_Zakarpattia
4.6 Ukrainian_Lviv
3.2 German_East
2.6 SaudiB
0.8 EmiratiA

Target: Polish_New_A
Distance: 0.1442% / 0.00144152 | ADC: 0.25x RC
66.0 Polish
18.0 Croatian
8.6 Ukrainian_Zakarpattia
3.0 Ukrainian_Lviv
2.2 German_East
2.2 SaudiB


It nicely illustrates their route. You can see that they brought Yiddish with them.

Target: Polish_New_B
Distance: 0.1077% / 0.00107680 | R5P
82.6 Polish
9.4 Ashkenazi_Latvia
5.0 Ukrainian_Zhytomyr_o
3.0 Hungarian

Target: Polish_New_A
Distance: 0.0077% / 0.00007683 | R5P
89.2 Polish
9.8 Ashkenazi_Poland
0.8 Croatian
0.2 Russian_Voronez

[Dušan]

2-way models for me


0.025 Dušan_scaled = 60% Polish_New_A + 40% Greek_Macedonia
0.025 Dušan_scaled = 78% Serbian + 22% Polish_New_A
0.025 Dušan_scaled = 57% Polish_New_A + 43% Torbeši_Polog
0.026 Dušan_scaled = 65% Polish_New_A + 35% Greek_Arcadia


0.025 Dušan_scaled = 75% Serbian + 25% Polish_New_B
0.026 Dušan_scaled = 65% Polish_New_B + 35% Greek_Macedonia
0.026 Dušan_scaled = 62% Polish_New_B + 38% Torbeši_Polog
0.026 Dušan_scaled = 86% Moldovan + 14% Polish_New_B

[rothaer]

Your scenario presupposes an immediate complete mixing. A realistic mixing would take longer time and then the very different reproduction rates of Poles and Jews would become very important for the mixing. The Jewish proportion would then become notably higher in the mixture.

[Peterski]

Your scenario presupposes an immediate complete mixing. A realistic mixing would take longer time and then the very different reproduction rates of Poles and Jews would become very important for the mixing. The Jewish proportion would then become notably higher in the mixture.

But Jews no longer had higher reproduction rates than Poles in the Inter-War Period.

In fact their percentage was already declining between the censuses of 1921 and 1931.

Religions in Poland in 1921 (in thousands):

Roman Catholics - 17365 (63.9%)
Greek Catholics - 3031 (11.1%)
Orthodox Christians - 2848 (10.5%)
Protestants - 1002 (3.7%)
Jews - 2846 (10.5%)
others and atheists - 84 (0.3%)

Religions in Poland in 1931 (in thousands):

Roman Catholics - 20824 (64.9%)
Greek Catholics - 3359 (10.4%)
Orthodox Christians - 3787 (11.8%)
Protestants - 841 (2.6%)
Jews - 3137 (9.8%)
others and atheists - 159 (0.5%)

=====

Average annual natural increase per 1000 inhabitants:

Roman Catholics:

Years 1926 - 1930 = 15.9
Years 1931 - 1935 = 13.1
Years 1936 - 1938 = 11.5

Jews:

Years 1926 - 1930 = 9.7
Years 1931 - 1935 = 9.5
Years 1936 - 1938 = 8.5

So actually Jews had a lower natural increase than Poles during the Inter-War Period.

[Gotse]

Wait, so the results are not some kind of average that you would get after several generations of mixing?(on the other hand I have no clue if genetic calculators are able for such calculations)

[Dušan]

Peterski, how much time is needed for My DNA Origin analysis of your 2 reports?
I paid and send request. :)

[Peterski]

Peterski, how much time is needed for My DNA Origin analysis of your 2 reports?
I paid and send request. :)

Yes I saw an order from Dušan, I thought it was you! :)

Up to 3 working days, but I will do it tomorrrow. Today I have two other reports to make so your has to wait until tomorrow.

[Peterski]

Wait, so the results are not some kind of average that you would get after several generations of mixing?

Yes, I made a weighted average using this tool:

https://dna-tools.xyz/

[Dušan]

Yes I saw an order from Dušan, I thought it was you! :)

Up to 3 working days, but I will do it tomorrrow. Today I have two other reports to make so your has to wait until tomorrow.

Dziękuję :)

[cass]

The Zionist Betar movement, supported—including militarily—by the Polish state, was so dynamic, that by the 1960s probably 80% of Polish Jews would have emigrated to Palestine. Those who remained would likely have been followers of the Bundist socialist movement, and assimilation would probably have followed that direction. What remains an open question is whether such a Poland could have survived in close proximity to an increasingly militarized Soviet Union.

[Feiichy]

But Jews no longer had higher reproduction rates than Poles in the Inter-War Period.

In fact their percentage was already declining between the censuses of 1921 and 1931.

Religions in Poland in 1921 (in thousands):

Roman Catholics - 17365 (63.9%)
Greek Catholics - 3031 (11.1%)
Orthodox Christians - 2848 (10.5%)
Protestants - 1002 (3.7%)
Jews - 2846 (10.5%)
others and atheists - 84 (0.3%)

Religions in Poland in 1931 (in thousands):

Roman Catholics - 20824 (64.9%)
Greek Catholics - 3359 (10.4%)
Orthodox Christians - 3787 (11.8%)
Protestants - 841 (2.6%)
Jews - 3137 (9.8%)
others and atheists - 159 (0.5%)

=====

Average annual natural increase per 1000 inhabitants:

Roman Catholics:

Years 1926 - 1930 = 15.9
Years 1931 - 1935 = 13.1
Years 1936 - 1938 = 11.5

Jews:

Years 1926 - 1930 = 9.7
Years 1931 - 1935 = 9.5
Years 1936 - 1938 = 8.5

So actually Jews had a lower natural increase than Poles during the Inter-War Period.

weren't there Ashkenazi converts to Catholicism?
That could explain why so many Poles score trace levels of AJ admixture.

[Peterski]

weren't there Ashkenazi converts to Catholicism?
That could explain why so many Poles score trace levels of AJ admixture.

Yeah there were some, already in the 18th century.

[Peterski]

The Zionist Betar movement, supported—including militarily—by the Polish state, was so dynamic, that by the 1960s probably 80% of Polish Jews would have emigrated to Palestine. Those who remained would likely have been followers of the Bundist socialist movement, and assimilation would probably have followed that direction. What remains an open question is whether such a Poland could have survived in close proximity to an increasingly militarized Soviet Union.

Do you think there would be enough space in Palestie to accommodate so many Jews?

[cass]

Do you think there would be enough space in Palestie to accommodate so many Jews?

Since Israel has a population of 9.5 million today, why couldn't it have absorbed 4 million European Jews back then?

[rothaer]

(...)

So actually Jews had a lower natural increase than Poles during the Inter-War Period.

But just due to an ongoing immigration, I guess. Austria, the German Empire and the USA became permanently flooded by Polish Jews (Rozalia Luksenburg, Herszel Grynszpan etc.). It depends on what szenario you would like to enlighten. To me most natural would be to consider interwar Poland a closed system.

[rothaer]

Since Israel has a population of 9.5 million today, why couldn't it have absorbed 4 million European Jews back then?

Yes. And it's stunning that you do have eduringly propspering entities like Hong Kong and Singapur that harbour well living millions without being able to produce all needed food themselves. I don't state that Israel cannot but I guess there will be a lot of things imported too.