Russia's economy in sharp decline, world economy in modest decline [Archive] - The Apricity Forum: A European Cultural Community

Lenny

05-17-2009, 06:38 AM

Russian economy shrinks 23 per cent in Q1

MOSCOW — Russia's economy shrank by a staggering 23.2 per cent in the first three months of the year compared with the previous quarter, as the country's industry buckled under the pressures of the global economic crisis, government figures showed Friday.

Russia's economic output declined by 9.5 per cent compared with a year earlier, the Federal State Statistics Service said Friday, confirming earlier government estimates. Officials had boasted that GDP would decline by only 2.2 per cent this year.

Russia has experienced a stunning reversal to its eight-year economic and consumer boom, when growth averaged about seven per cent on the back of soaring oil prices. The economy started to nosedive last fall after the price of oil, its key export, collapsed, investors pulled billions of dollars out of the country and industrial output slowed.

link (http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5g052a3JJ5LAnmOL12YToq0d85NYA)

World GDP is set to shrink this year. For the first time since 1945 (http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2942). Russia seems to be in worst shape among the large economies in the world.

Quarter-to-quarter growth rate Q4-2008 to Q1-2009 for select major economies:
- (Negative) 3.8% : GERMANY
- (Negative) 2.4% : ITALY
- (Negative) 2.8% : AUSTRIA
- (Negative) 2.8% : NETHERLANDS
- (Negative) 1.9% : BRITAIN
- (Negative) 1.8% : SPAIN
- (Negative) 1.2% : FRANCE

- (Negative)23.2% : RUSSIA
- (Negative) 6.1% : USA link (http://www.fundstrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=185565&d=560&h=527&f=518)
- (.Positive) 2.0%? : CHINA link (http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3222479) - no one trusts their official number of +6%

The lesser economies in Europe were hit hard (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1182915/Record-fall-Germanys-GDP-manufacturing-slumps.html) but not nearly as badly as Russia:
-(Negative)11.2% : SLOVAKIA
-(Negative)11.2% : LATVIA
- (Negative) 9.5% : LITHUANIA
- (Negative) 6.5% : ESTONIA
- (Negative) 6.4% : HUNGARY
- (Negative) 6.4% : ROMANIA

"Already we have real GDP levels that are up only about 3pc from 2000 in Germany and Italy – i.e. growth has been only a little over ¼pc a year – making this a lost decade for much of continental Europe on a worse scale than Japan in the 1990s." link (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5331129/Europe-in-deepest-recession-since-War-as-Germany-suffers.html).

Lenny

05-17-2009, 06:41 AM

"Already we have real GDP levels that are up only about 3pc from 2000 in Germany and Italy – i.e. growth has been only a little over ¼pc a year – making this a lost decade for much of continental Europe on a worse scale than Japan in the 1990s."

So there you have it. The post-1945 boom witnessed by the capitalist-liberal-democracies in both Europe and the European-derived states overseas is over. A similar realization happened in the Soviet-model socialist states in the early to mid 1980s, which had also boomed post-1945. (A similar fate to the socialist bloc in 1980s will probably not befall the capitalist-liberal-democracies no matter how bad it gets, simply because there is no competing Weltanschauung to take over as there was in Europe in the 1980s.)

In civilization-level-analysis, we can say one thing.
Europe and the European-derived states have -- in general, we can say -- peaked. The above-quoted excerpt is more proof and is quantitative. Europe and the European-derived states seem to have peaked sometime in the bustling 1990s, when the hard-to-truly-grasp civilizational tidal forces began to ebb. The seeds of that decline were planted well beforehand, of course.

Treffie

05-17-2009, 06:51 AM

This goes to show that Russia really is reliant on the west for her wealth.

23%? Geez!

Inese

05-17-2009, 10:57 AM

23% shrink??? :eek::eek: That is a funny information!!! You know i know a person from Russia who laugh about my " dirty and inferor " Latvia for our problems in economy crisis times ----- saying that Russia has good and " superior "economy and will not be hit hard by the world crisis.....:rolleyes::rolleyes: But 23% decline is more than double of Latvian decline!!!

I can not hold back with a little Schadenfreude sooooorry!! :p:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl2 It is not a mature post but please let me have my some funny seconds okay?! ^_^

Vargtand

05-17-2009, 11:42 AM

Not good:( Guess we will be getting more Russians then :/

Groenewolf

05-17-2009, 11:53 AM

-23% for Russia. They got hit pretty bad. Also intresting to see is the Western-European countries got hit less hard.

And indeed Vargtand it could mean that more Russians will look for work abroad to make a living.

Hors

05-17-2009, 12:33 PM

British and Proud

05-17-2009, 12:43 PM

The story is just primitive manipulation with figures.

Russians do not work half of January, it's official holidays. With the same "success "you may compare non-working Sunday's and working Monday's GDP. The difference is always sharp.

The real decline, as compared with January of 2008 is 9.5%. Another thing is that it's mostly due to decline in investments.

In 2009 the Russian GDP is expected to drop by 2% by national authorities/bodies and down to 6-7% by international organizations. The latter is, of course, silly propaganda.

As Russia dropped its currency value and closed the borders for foreign goods it could happen only if the oil price is lower than USD 30 per barrel.

And if the oil price is USD 50 per barrel the Russian economy will grow.

The oil price will soar soon, due to peak oil. Russia has so much wealth tied up in natural resources - gas, oil, minerals, etc - that obviously a downturn in the global economy will have an impact.

Could this be good for Russia, though? Will people me more likely to vote for ultra-nationalist parties? Will Russia repatriate the hordes of foreigners who have come from the Central Asian countries?

Groenewolf

05-17-2009, 12:48 PM

As Russia dropped its currency value and closed the borders for foreign goods it could happen only if the oil price is lower than USD 30 per barrel.

And if the oil price is USD 50 per barrel the Russian economy will grow.

Wich somes across as if Russia is higly depended on one thing for it economy. Has Russia any other economic strenghts besides natural resources?

Hors

05-17-2009, 01:04 PM

Wich somes across as if Russia is higly depended on one thing for it economy. Has Russia any other economic strenghts besides natural resources?

Oil and natural gas and their derivatives (used to) account for 14% of Russian GDP, but half of export revenue, and thus are/were very important for the exchange rate of the rouble, which, in turn, influence investments which are included in GDP calculation.

Q1 prices really mark the bottom of the Russian economy, as with such prices (which hardly compensate the expenses) there is little differnce either Russia has oil and gas or hasn't.

So the rest (90.5%) is non natural resources economy. But, of course, the 9.5% in question, in connection with the rouble/investments is the big difference for Russia, the difference between prosperity and the need to be competetive to be prosperous.

Hors

05-17-2009, 01:07 PM

The oil price will soar soon, due to peak oil. Russia has so much wealth tied up in natural resources - gas, oil, minerals, etc - that obviously a downturn in the global economy will have an impact.

Could this be good for Russia, though? Will people me more likely to vote for ultra-nationalist parties? Will Russia repatriate the hordes of foreigners who have come from the Central Asian countries?

Yes and yes.

And Central Asians are already leaving Moscow en masse, being out of work, as construction works are virtually stopped.

Lenny

05-17-2009, 01:31 PM

The oil price will soar soon, due to peak oil. Russia has so much wealth tied up in natural resources - gas, oil, minerals, etc - that obviously a downturn in the global economy will have an impact.

So Russia is a petro-state on par with the Middle Eastern oil states and statelets - totally dependent upon resource extraction? This reflects rather badly on Russia.

Could this be good for Russia, though? Will people me more likely to vote for ultra-nationalist parties? Will Russia repatriate the hordes of foreigners who have come from the Central Asian countries?The "Great Russia" types want to reannex those regions and more. Heck, Russian "nationalists" are often so clownish that they demand Alaska "back"!

British and Proud

05-17-2009, 01:41 PM

So Russia is a petro-state on par with the Middle Eastern oil states and statelets - totally dependent upon resource extraction? This reflects rather badly on Russia.

How so?

I look at the British economy in which we manufacture virtually nothing, and wonder how we will prosper in the future - what are we going to export, management consultants? As resources become scarcer and the world's population grows, Russia will be in an enviable position because of her wealth of resources.

Lenny

05-17-2009, 01:43 PM

Russians do not work half of JanuaryOr half of Feburary, half of March, half of April, etc.:D

Hm.

Q. Does Hors ever contribute anything to any thread besides inane kneejerk "proRussian" bloviating that annoys half the membership here but doesn't add anything of value? If Russia has problems then t-- oops, yes Russia never has problems, ever, I forgot...it's the evil Western-Nazi propaganda that lies about Russia's greatness daily.:rolleyes:

If you're not Walter Duranty, refrain from commenting on Russia, ever, or risk Hors' ire.

Hors

05-17-2009, 01:53 PM

Or half of Feburary, half of March, half of April, etc.:D

February to January GDP increase is 106%, March to February GDP increase is 111%.

Hm.

Ehm...

Q. Does Hors ever contribute anything to any thread besides inane kneejerk "proRussian" bloviating that annoys half the membership here but doesn't add anything of value? If Russia has problems then t-- oops, yes Russia never has problems, ever, I forgot...it's the evil Western-Nazi propaganda that lies about Russia's greatness daily.:rolleyes:

You're retarded.

The Lawspeaker

05-17-2009, 02:21 PM

I think that Russia has several mayor weaknesses:

1. the immense distances and her antiquated infrastructure.

2. Apart from her resources she doesn't seem to produce much- so if the outside world doesn't need those resources because of an economic crisis Russia's economy hits rock bottom. We have seen it couple of times in for instance the Middle East and Latin America as well. Besides- fifteen years ago the Lada was quite popular here: where did it go ?

3. System of government and her judicial system as well as perhaps the entire economic structure. It's centralized, corrupt, antiquated. And not fit for the 21th century, her businesses are led by semi-criminals rather then smooth businessmen. The question I am asking myself is this one: what kind of economy does Russia have ? I think it's a war economy and those are sound for warfare and disastrous for anything else hence the reason why the West always quickly got rid of them after wars. The Eastern Block has maintained one until well in the 1990's. Russia still has one. For what I have heard and seen the industry itself seems to be somewhat antiquated as well btw.
The fact that Russia uses her resources for geopolitical games, namely to blackmail other countries rather then just establishing commerce with them shows that my theory can't be too far off.

4. The people. Although a decent part of the population receives relatively good education they seem to be unable to develop themselves in any way. I wonder whether the sharp decline in population is a sign of lost confidence...

The Lawspeaker

05-17-2009, 02:58 PM

Now that I am at it I am going to post some samples of Russian "infrastructure".

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9b/E105%2C_M2._Russia._Moskovskaya_oblast.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c7/Belgorod_Region_E105.JPG

Now I know that severe frost damages the pavement of roads. It's the same problem in for instance Canada or Scandinavia but it seems to me that it is hardly getting any maintenance.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/1_%D0%B8_2_%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B8_%D0%9D%D 0%92%D0%90%D0%AD%D0%A1.JPG
Unit 1 and 2 of the Novovoronezh Nuclear Power Plant which is also situated very close to the city of Novovoronezh.

http://knowledge.allianz.com/nopi_downloads/images/russia_pipeline_permafrost__1.jpg
Damaged by permafrost..

Of course, Russia has some modern infrastructure too but they seem to be too preoccupied with other countries. They should be looking after their country first: repair their infrastructure--- let alone from their leaking reactors, link remote regions, install modern government etc etc etc.

If they were to do that they would be busy enough for the coming 50 years...
And before you throw it into the face of the Americans here: I know (and I am sure they do too) that the U.S has it's fair share of equally outdated infrastructure too.

Lenny

05-17-2009, 03:08 PM

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/9106/clfclose.gif

Notice that oil was in the $30s-$40s range for the entire Q1 of 2009, (the period in question.)

The Lawspeaker

05-17-2009, 03:14 PM

Well.. Russia will profit little then from the oil prices as also the gas prices (at least here- I am not sure from Russia) are linked to the price of oil.
Even if that's not the case the demand will plummet and I have the feeling that the short Russian boom was on the never-never.

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 03:19 PM

Wich somes across as if Russia is higly depended on one thing for it economy. Has Russia any other economic strenghts besides natural resources?

No (unless you count mail-order brides and crime).

Hors

05-17-2009, 03:40 PM

Keep jerking each other off, laddies. See ya when you're finished :)

The Lawspeaker

05-17-2009, 03:42 PM

Come on, Hors. At least come up with a sensible reply. Stop being such a troll :D

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 04:02 PM

Q. Does Hors ever contribute anything to any thread besides inane kneejerk "proRussian" bloviating that annoys half the membership here but doesn't add anything of value? If Russia has problems then t-- oops, yes Russia never has problems, ever, I forgot...it's the evil Western-Nazi propaganda that lies about Russia's greatness daily.:rolleyes:

If you're not Walter Duranty, refrain from commenting on Russia, ever, or risk Hors' ire.

I think Hors would be better off on a Russian nationalist forum. European preservation doesn't seem to be his thing, since he seems to hate (or at least look down on) anyone or anything that isn't Russian.

Hors

05-17-2009, 04:06 PM

Come on, Hors. At least come up with a sensible reply. Stop being such a troll :D

I just explained that it's normal for Russia to have economy's decline in Q1 because of long holidays in January, and that in comparison with Q1 of 2008 the decline is 9.5%. The rest is Lenny's BS.

Loki

05-17-2009, 04:11 PM

I think Hors would be better off on a Russian nationalist forum. European preservation doesn't seem to be his thing, since he seems to hate (or at least look down on) anyone or anything that isn't Russian.

And guys like you hate anything and anyone that is Russian. Where's the difference? When Hors is away, you guys gladly insult Russians and Russia at will. When he is here, you encounter some resistance to it. That is only natural. I think Russia-bashing is so common that people don't even notice it any more. When arguments from the other side come up, everyone is up in arms.

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 04:13 PM

And guys like you hate anything and anyone that is Russian. Where's the difference? When Hors is away, you guys gladly insult Russians and Russia at will. When he is here, you encounter some resistance to it. That is only natural. I think Russia-bashing is so common that people don't even notice it any more. When arguments from the other side come up, everyone is up in arms.

I don't hate Russians or Russia, thank you.

Edit: And please point out where I have demeaned Russia and its people the way Hors has to other ethnicities/nationalities here (like Latvians, for example).

Loki

05-17-2009, 04:23 PM

Edit: And please point out where I have demeaned Russia and its people the way Hors has to other ethnicities/nationalities here (like Latvians, for example).

Just sayin', mate. I don't hate time to trawl through all your posts, and I didn't mean you specifically either. Fact remains that anti-Russian comments are far more likely to be accepted and applauded on here.

Hors

05-17-2009, 04:30 PM

I don't hate Russians or Russia, thank you.

Edit: And please point out where I have demeaned Russia and its people

For example, several posts up, this very thread

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=47617&postcount=20

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 04:35 PM

For example, several posts up, this very thread

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=47617&postcount=20

That's nothing compared to your constant rants about non-Russians. Is that all you've got?

Hors

05-17-2009, 04:41 PM

That's nothing compared to your constant rants about non-Russians. Is that all you've got?

And please point out where I have demeaned Russia and its people

:rolleyes:

The Law about denial of role of Russia in WWII is not enacted yet, but after it's in force, come in Russia, and I promise you a full account of your hate rants about Russia and Russians presented to you by a prosecutor in a local court :D

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 04:42 PM

Just sayin', mate. I don't hate time to trawl through all your posts, and I didn't mean you specifically either.

When you say "guys like you", I assume you mean, you know, me.

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 04:44 PM

:rolleyes:

The Law about denial of role of Russia in WWII is not enacted yet, but after it's in force, come in Russia, and I promise you a full account of your hate rants about Russia and Russians presented to you by a prosecutor in a local court :D

If you're going to quote me, please use the whole quote instead of cutting parts out to suit your agenda.

My comment was:

"Edit: And please point out where I have demeaned Russia and its people the way Hors has to other ethnicities/nationalities here (like Latvians, for example)."

Hors

05-17-2009, 04:47 PM

The difference in ways is that I've submitted facts backing my claims while all you posted was unsubstantiated BS, mostly libel.

Lenny

05-17-2009, 04:48 PM

Hors and "Hors-related discussion" has derailed this thread. It's become one of the dime-a-dozen boring flamefests involving...Hors. I apologize for my part in instigating it.:eek:

[Leaves thread].:p

Loki

05-17-2009, 04:48 PM

When you say "guys like you", I assume you mean, you know, me.

Well, you aren't exactly known for a pro-Russian stance. I don't have anything against it. You are welcome to have any opinion on here. But you have to tolerate other opinions as well, as they will present themselves. What grinds my gears is when people try to shut others up who voice opinions different than theirs. You don't have to be a fan of Russia, but Hors doesn't have to be a fan of America. Opinions and tolerance work both ways. Apricity does not have a stance on this issue. We are neutral as a forum. You, on the other hand, can express whatever you like. And so can Hors.

Strong debate makes a forum interesting. No-one wants to be on a forum where everyone always agrees and there is no debating excitement. It becomes extremely dull after a while. Therefore, I welcome a whole range of views on here, including those of Hors. You are very welcome to counter them or whatever you like. But he has as much right to be here as you. That is my whole point.

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 05:08 PM

The difference in ways is that I've submitted facts backing my claims while all you posted was unsubstantiated BS, mostly libel.

Many times you back up your claims with conspiracy theories (like when you claimed it was American soldiers dressed like Russians who actually invaded Afghanistan).

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 05:12 PM

Well, you aren't exactly known for a pro-Russian stance. I don't have anything against it. You are welcome to have any opinion on here. But you have to tolerate other opinions as well, as they will present themselves. What grinds my gears is when people try to shut others up who voice opinions different than theirs. You don't have to be a fan of Russia, but Hors doesn't have to be a fan of America. Opinions and tolerance work both ways. Apricity does not have a stance on this issue. We are neutral as a forum. You, on the other hand, can express whatever you like. And so can Hors.

Strong debate makes a forum interesting. No-one wants to be on a forum where everyone always agrees and there is no debating excitement. It becomes extremely dull after a while. Therefore, I welcome a whole range of views on here, including those of Hors. You are very welcome to counter them or whatever you like. But he has as much right to be here as you. That is my whole point.

I'm not trying to shut up Hors. My point was that someone who seems to dislike everyone except Russians would be better suited to a Russian Nationalist forum. I'm not arguing that Hors should be banned.

Anyway; I don't consider Russians to be genetically inferior (which Hors seems to believe about other types of Europeans). I just disagree with many of their imperialistic policies towards their neighbors and find Hors' endless defense of everything they do to be bizarre.

Loki

05-17-2009, 05:20 PM

I'm not trying to shut up Hors. My point was that someone who seems to dislike everyone except Russians would be better suited to a Russian Nationalist forum. I'm not arguing that Hors should be banned.

Anyway; I don't consider Russians to be genetically inferior (which Hors seems to believe about other types of Europeans). I just disagree with many of their imperialistic policies towards their neighbors and find Hors' endless defense of everything they do to be bizarre.

Hors can undoubtably benefit from going on a soft skills course. :thumb001:

Hors

05-17-2009, 05:36 PM

Many times you back up your claims with conspiracy theories (like when you claimed it was American soldiers dressed like Russians who actually invaded Afghanistan).

You're delusional.

However, it's true I that I totally debunked your silly claims with solid US sources in that thread. :thumb001:

Manifest Destiny

05-17-2009, 06:57 PM

You're delusional.

However, it's true I that I totally debunked your silly claims with solid US sources in that thread. :thumb001:

I'm delusional?

Here is the post where I asked, "So it was the US official who invaded Afghanistan, disguised as the Soviet army?"

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=36473&postcount=96

Here is the post where you answered, "Yes."

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=36492&postcount=101

:thumbs up

Hors

05-17-2009, 07:19 PM

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/12/02

Q: When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight against a secret involvement of the United States in Afghanistan, people didn't believe them. However, there was a basis of truth. You don't regret anything today?

Brzezinski: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it?

www.michaelparenti.org/afghanistan%20story%20untold.html

National security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski publicly admitted--months before Soviet troops entered the country--that the Carter administration was providing huge sums to Muslim extremists to subvert the reformist government. Part of that effort involved brutal attacks by the CIA-backed mujahideen against schools and teachers in rural areas.

Now, Yankee, FO, I'm tired of your senseless BS.