Petros Houhoulis
06-14-2012, 08:33 PM
New Democracy shall win with a comfortable margin, but shall be forced to ally with PASOK and (perhaps later) with the Independent Greeks in order to rule.
Synaspismos shall be second. Ironically it won't be able to form a government even if it gets the first place. No possible allies for them.
PASOK, Independent Greeks, the Greek Communists (KKE) and Dimokratiki Aristera (DIMAR) shall lose some of their power.
Golden Dawn (The Fascist clones) shall probably lose some of their power, but not as much as it was expected. Their violent attacks seem to be confirming them as the sole protest vote against the system, and they are trending upwards. They shall appear in the next parliament again, but most likely below their earlier ~6%
Beyond the elections:
Greece won't be able to stick to the austerity pact because the finances are still falling, one of the reasons being the loss of revenue because of a 5% fall in the revenue of the tourist industry this year. Another reason is the restraint of the taxation mechanism because the government is trying not to anger the electorate just before the elections. It doesn't work though, everybody knows that the revenues shall be collected after the elections, and even more.
I doubt that there shall be any swift investments that can produce any sizeable revenue to reverse the situation. The taxation remains at exorbitant levels forcing many potential investors to withdraw their interest.
The worst though is that the major political parties have pledged not to fire any workers in the public sector, something that is in contrast to the austerity pact! Unfortunately the plurality of international commetators who insist to request higher tax revenues instead of fewer public servants do not seem to understand the current situation in Greece (although the rich can be taxed, it won't help much since they can also flee the country).
It's gonna be a hot summer...
I won't be voting. I travel to Alaska this summer. I won't be around for a few more days.
I only hope that the Greek national team won't defeat the Russians by some cheat by the referees. The referees have a tradition of cheating the Russians repeatedly in European football. We have been cheated so far, but a defeat right now would be beneficial to us because we shall concentrate on politics instead of football...
Synaspismos shall be second. Ironically it won't be able to form a government even if it gets the first place. No possible allies for them.
PASOK, Independent Greeks, the Greek Communists (KKE) and Dimokratiki Aristera (DIMAR) shall lose some of their power.
Golden Dawn (The Fascist clones) shall probably lose some of their power, but not as much as it was expected. Their violent attacks seem to be confirming them as the sole protest vote against the system, and they are trending upwards. They shall appear in the next parliament again, but most likely below their earlier ~6%
Beyond the elections:
Greece won't be able to stick to the austerity pact because the finances are still falling, one of the reasons being the loss of revenue because of a 5% fall in the revenue of the tourist industry this year. Another reason is the restraint of the taxation mechanism because the government is trying not to anger the electorate just before the elections. It doesn't work though, everybody knows that the revenues shall be collected after the elections, and even more.
I doubt that there shall be any swift investments that can produce any sizeable revenue to reverse the situation. The taxation remains at exorbitant levels forcing many potential investors to withdraw their interest.
The worst though is that the major political parties have pledged not to fire any workers in the public sector, something that is in contrast to the austerity pact! Unfortunately the plurality of international commetators who insist to request higher tax revenues instead of fewer public servants do not seem to understand the current situation in Greece (although the rich can be taxed, it won't help much since they can also flee the country).
It's gonna be a hot summer...
I won't be voting. I travel to Alaska this summer. I won't be around for a few more days.
I only hope that the Greek national team won't defeat the Russians by some cheat by the referees. The referees have a tradition of cheating the Russians repeatedly in European football. We have been cheated so far, but a defeat right now would be beneficial to us because we shall concentrate on politics instead of football...