A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

[Loki]

SometimesYes posted this on ABF some months ago:



Turkey is emerging as an economic superpower in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East with greater influence in regional politics. Promoting itself as a “model Muslim democracy,” and widely admired by other Middle Eastern nations, Turkey now faces a novel problem that Europe has long contended with: a falling birth rate.

Since the 1990s, Turkey’s fertility rate has steadily declined, due to, among other factors, rising household incomes, expanded access to higher education for women and increased birth control practices.

“The use of birth-control methods has increased in Turkey a lot, but that is not the only reason for the decline in population,” an obstetrician named Kağan Kocatepe told Hürriyet Daily News, a Turkish newspaper.

“Many women want to have a successful career. That’s why the maternity age has increased, as women have started giving birth to their first child in their 30s.”

Indeed, Dr. İsmet Koç, a demographer at Hacettepe University in Ankara, warned that Turkey's fertility rate is now below 2.1, the replacement level, which suggests the population will eventually decline.

The fertility level in more prosperous western Turkey is now about 1.5 -- roughly the same as in western Europe.

The number of children produced by the average Turkish woman has plunged to two from three over just the past two decades, coincident with Turkey's rise as an economic power.

But there is a wrinkle to this whole phenomenon.

The Kurdish community of Turkey, which currently represents at least 15 percent of the population and dominates the southeastern region, has such a high birth rate, that some observers – most prominently Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- believe Kurds could become a majority in Turkey within two generations.

The proposed scenario is somewhat similar to the Palestinian situation in Israel, where Arabs could become the dominant ethnic group in the 'Jewish State' within 30 years or so; or the southwestern United States, where Hispanics and Mexican-Americans are likely to become the majority within a few decades.

According to Turkish government statistics, the average Kurdish woman in Turkey gives birth to about four children, more than double the rate for other Turkish mothers.

Thus, Turkey is facing a demographic time-bomb – Kurds, who tend to be concentrated in the country's impoverished southeast and are generally poorer and less educated, could conceivably outnumber Turks within about 30 years should present patterns persist.

Erdogan seems to be certain this will happen.

"If we continue the existing trend, [the year] 2038 will mark disaster for us," Erdogan warned in May 2010.

[Onur]

The situation is not that bad as it`s presented in the article, tough this is the trend for the last 2-3 decades. The birthrate among the Turks is around 1,5 as it`s been said in the article. Thats quite same as the other struggling European nations in terms of demographics. But Kurds are breeding like rats for a century. They implement this as some kind of deliberate policy, perfectly suitable to their separatist movement. It`s quite common to find Kurds with 4 wives and 40+ children. The first wife being legal and the other 3 illegal. Some children gets registered as grandchildrens, nephews or some children never gets any ID at all since they live in mountainous isolated regions.


Turks are suffering their separatist terrorism for 30 years but all the governments, media constantly feeding a propaganda to the Turkish people like Kurds are supposedly our brothers, they are close to us. This is a blatant lie, a propaganda to prevent a civil war because of kurdish terror. They are just trying to keep Turkish people calm. In fact, the affinity between Kurds and Turks are not closer than between, lets say Croats, Serbs, Macedonians or even Bosnians. Kurds and Turks speaks completely different language, we have completely different culture and also have completely different ethnic roots.

They are just living in Turkish state due to some developments after WW-1 and during our war of independence against the allies. The existence of Kurdish people in today`s republic of Turkey is also closely related with the Armenian issue during WW-1. I can briefly say that the majority of Kurds sided with Turks during and after WW-1 because they perceived the inclusion of eastern Anatolia to the new Turkish republic as their only salvation. They fought vs the Armenians and their Russian masters by the Turks because Turkey`s failure would mean the creation of Armenian kingdom in eastern Anatolia and this would mean total annihilation of kurdish existence in there. Thats why they sided with Turks, then they occupied formerly Armenian owned properties after the war but today, all these things became past and now they want a separate Kurdistan while western world supports that too.


Btw i found the article on the web and the part you linked is only a portion of it. here is the rest of it;

International Business Times spoke with an expert on Turkey and demographics to explore this topic.

Dr. Tino Sanandaji is a PhD in Public Policy at the University of Chicago who does research on demographic change and its link to policy.

IB TIMES: Is the overall fertility rate in Turkey declining because the country is becoming wealthier, household incomes are rising and more women are using birth control methods?

SANANDAJI: Yes, sooner or later this happens in all industrialized countries -- parents prefer to have fewer children and invest more time and resources on them rather than having a large family.

IB TIMES: The birth rate for Kurds is more than double that of Turks. Is this due to the fact that Kurds are generally poorer and less educated?

SANANDAJI: Poorer, less educated and more rural. However, other factors should not be ruled out since low-income Kurdish women also have higher birth rates than low-income Turkish women.

IB TIMES: Prime Minister Erdogan warned that Kurds could become a majority in Turkey by 2038. Is this a realistic prediction?

SANANDAJI: No, that is impossible. Demographic change is a slow process even when birth rates differ sharply, because so many generations are already born and will be around for decades.

In the 1930s, the Kurds constituted about 9 percent of the population of Turkey, and though they had higher birth rates than the Turks it still took until the 1990s until they reached the 18 percent level.

Since it takes a long time, underlying forces can change in the meanwhile. Therefore, we should be careful about extrapolating current trends into the future. Nor can demographic trends be dismissed using the equally silly argument that since demographic predictions were sometimes wrong in the past, all predictions are always wrong in the future. Plenty of predictions turned out to be accurate.

This is a sensitive topic to some. When people read that the population share of their “tribe” is shrinking there is often a primal psychological response of fear, anger or denial, and wide exaggerations in both directions.

IB TIMES: In the event Kurds become a majority in Turkey, will that render the Kurdish nationalist and separatist movements irrelevant and moot?

SANANDAJI: If history is any guide, that development would raise tensions with the Kurdish separatist movement, because they will be more likely to win a democratic or military struggle once they are the majority population.

IB TIMES: If the Kurds are becoming more assimilated, why is this even a problem? If the Ankara government does not even classify Kurds as a separate ethnic group, why would they even care about their higher birth rates?

SANANDAJI: If Kurds are slowly assimilating but growing their population share rapidly, the net effect might still be more voters with an ethnic Kurdish identity. Once Kurds realize time is working on their side, they might become less willing to abandon their national identity, anticipating that if they hold on long enough their sheer numbers will change the balance of power.

If the rate of assimilation into a national Turkish identity is sufficiently rapid, Turkey will not necessarily break apart. But Turkey will likely be a different country in many other ways if Kurds become the majority.

IB TIMES: What, if anything, is the Turkish government doing to prevent these demographic trends?

SANANDAJI: One choice is to try to stabilize the Turkish birth rate, though no country I am aware of has successfully done this in modern times.

A second alternative for the government is to convince the Kurds in Turkey to accept the Turkish national identity, making the population issue less important.

Another option is to lower the Kurdish birth rate by promoting economic development, education and women’s' health in Kurdish areas.

But if current trends continue for generations, Turks might eventually reach a point when they must reluctantly decide between keeping a smaller Turkish nation state or risk becoming the minority population in a Kurdish-majority Turkey.

Read more: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/337754/20120506/turkey-kurdish-demographics-pkk-birth-rate-womens.htm#ixzz20G3JATU7

[Bugarash]

You mean kurds are suffering under turks!

you are pushing them around since forever.

[Bugarash]

Btw I think that turkish women in central Turkey are still primitive enough to have a high birth rate...

As for the parts of Turkey where I have been they were all wearing miniskirts:D

[Loki]

Btw I think that turkish women in central Turkey are still primitive enough to have a high birth rate...

As for the parts of Turkey where I have been they were all wearing miniskirts:D

yeah, for all >> primitive lifestyle = high birthrate. better lifestyle = reduced birthrate

[Arorti]

They are just living in Turkish state due to some developments after WW-1 and during our war of independence against the allies. The existence of Kurdish people in today`s republic of Turkey is also closely related with the Armenian issue during WW-1. I can briefly say that the majority of Kurds sided with Turks during and after WW-1 because they perceived the inclusion of eastern Anatolia to the new Turkish republic as their only salvation. They fought vs the Armenians and their Russian masters by the Turks because Turkey`s failure would mean the creation of Armenian kingdom in eastern Anatolia and this would mean total annihilation of kurdish existence in there. Thats why they sided with Turks, then they occupied formerly Armenian owned properties after the war but today, all these things became past and now they want a separate Kurdistan while western world supports that too.



It's good and strange to hear the word of truth from a turk.

You have genocided civilized nation like armenians with low birthrates and kept the real enemies inside your country. You should have genocided them instead of us,Your eastern part of the country would be part of armenia,but the rest of your country would be 100% turkish with no kurdish problem or danger.

Blame your ancestors.

[Loki]

It's good and strange to hear the word of truth from a turk.

You have genocided civilized nation like armenians with low birthrates and kept the real enemies inside your country. You should have genocided them instead of us,Your eastern part of the country would be part of armenia,but the rest of your country would be 100% turkish with no kurdish problem or danger.

Blame your ancestors.

*sigh* ... Armenians ... :rolleyes:

[shshmuk]

*sigh* ... Armenians ... :rolleyes:

Loki, do you have problems with the Armenians generally, or the above poster's person, or with what he said in that post? Why sighing? It's very offensive, don't you think so?

[Grizzly]

Loki, do you have problems with the Armenians generally, or the above poster's person, or with what he said in that post? Why sighing? It's very offensive, don't you think so?

He likes the Turkish Kebab

know what I'm sayin?

[StonyArabia]

He likes the Turkish Kebab

know what I'm sayin?

Turkish Kebabs taste great.

[Loki]

Loki, do you have problems with the Armenians generally, or the above poster's person, or with what he said in that post? Why sighing? It's very offensive, don't you think so?

I don't have a problem with Armenians :)

It's just that ... they seem to regard their issues as more important than anyone else's ... I have debated tirelessly with some on this forum last year. :(

They also seem to hold grudges over stuff that happened centuries ago ...

[shshmuk]

I don't want to repeat here what I wrote in another thread, but I kindly ask you, Loki and the others, to read this (http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1013267&postcount=305) and this (http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1013277&postcount=306).

[shshmuk]

I don't have a problem with Armenians :)

It's just that ... they seem to regard their issues as more important than anyone else's ...

Not only them. I can see that many people here are suffering from that disease.



I have debated tirelessly with some on this forum last year. :(

No need to debate that long with dumb people, whatever nation they might belong to.


They also seem to hold grudges over stuff that happened centuries ago ...

Not centuries ago, Loki, but what happened, happened to our great grandparents and even grandparents, as in my case. You can't understand this pain, and you will never understand.

[Loki]

Not centuries ago, Loki, but what happened, happened to our great grandparents and even grandparents, as in my case. You can't understand this pain, and you will never understand.

same goes with ALL people in Europe ... remember WW2? The Russians, Poles and Germans have moved on ...

[Onur]

same goes with ALL people in Europe ... remember WW2? The Russians, Poles and Germans have moved on ...
Loki, i already quit surprising about the usual Armenian behavior and mindset. You better do the same because it`s something normal for them. Anti-Turkishness is their water+bread. They cant live without it. It`s the biggest thing which unites all the Armenians in Yerevan with the Armenian diaspora.

Did you know that there is an article in the Armenian state`s constitution which says that it`s duty for every Armenian to preserve their feeling towards western Armenia (eastern Turkey)?

Did you know that Armenian state still doesn't officially recognize their border with Turkey?

Did you know that a mountain in eastern Turkey gets represented on the Armenian state`s flag?

Did you know that all the Armenian school children of 6 years old gives an oath once in a week to get western Armenia (eastern Turkey) inside to the Armenian state`s borders?

Did you know that all the Armenian church organizations in other countries makes sure that all the diaspora children gets raised with the same mindset towards Turkey and Turks?


Now, while this is the case in Armenia and in the diaspora, do you expect a reasonable discussion with them and let them move on about the events of WW-1?

[shshmuk]

Loki, i already quit surprising about the usual Armenian behavior and mindset. You better do the same because it`s something normal for them. Anti-Turkishness is their water+bread. They cant live without it. It`s the biggest thing which unites all the Armenians in Yerevan with the Armenian diaspora.

Did you know that there is an article in the Armenian state`s constitution which says that it`s duty for every Armenian to preserve their feeling towards western Armenia (eastern Turkey)?

Did you know that Armenian state still doesn't officially recognize their border with Turkey?

Did you know that a mountain in eastern Turkey gets represented on the Armenian state`s flag?

Did you know that all the Armenian school children of 6 years old gives an oath once in a week to get western Armenia (eastern Turkey) inside to the Armenian state`s borders?

Did you know that all the Armenian church organizations in other countries makes sure that all the diaspora children gets raised with the same mindset towards Turkey and Turks?


Now, while this is the case in Armenia and in the diaspora, do you expect a reasonable discussion with them and let them move on about the events of WW-1?

And do you know that there is such a thing as Pan-Turkism which threatens the very existence of the Armenian Republic and not only?

And do you know that unlike Turkey, all others who in the recent past committed great crimes against another nation, accepted their sin? While Turkey continues to deny and constantly lie. And this your lie and denial, also your very dangerous pan-Turkistic program brings forth all those anti-Turkish Armenian feelings and actions which are nothing but natural product of the instinct of self-preservation.


Yeeeees, Loki, you do love Turkish kebabs (whatever it means, I don't have an idea) very much to always thank the posts of the Turks, even if they told fairy-tales or said some nonsense.

What can I say? :clap2:

[Demhat]

Btw I think that turkish women in central Turkey are still primitive enough to have a high birth rate...


Not only them, also the one in South Turkey like to bred like cockroaches. Its only the Western Turks who die out.

[Loki]

Yeeeees, Loki, you do love Turkish kebabs (whatever it means, I don't have an idea) very much to always thank the posts of the Turks, even if they told fairy-tales or said some nonsense.

What can I say? :clap2:

I like kebabs, and the vast majority of Turkish people I have met online ... they have truly managed to impress me! :)

Besides the fact that Netherlands has 300 years of cooperation with Turkey/OE, and Germany LOADS as well ... The OE's support for Germany in the Great War actually resulted in the collapse of the OE :(

[shshmuk]

I like kebabs, and the vast majority of Turkish people I have met online ... they have truly managed to impress me! :)

Besides the fact that Netherlands has 300 years of cooperation with Turkey/OE, and Germany LOADS as well ... The OE's support for Germany in the Great War actually resulted in the collapse of the OE :(

If the Turks have impressed you, then you can't distinguish between lies and the truth. Just a recent example: please go to this (http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1012269&postcount=60) recent thread and see what kind of fairy-tale is written by Onur and when I replied to him, asking "Where did you find that information" and showed that what he had written didn't correspond to the reality, he didn't reply at all, thus truly showing he hadn't had any reliable source for his information. Now you read their lies and you are impressed?

Besides, you are the super administrator of this forum and not just an ordinary member, don't you think that it is unwise on your side to show passionate attitude to those inter-national issues which don't directly concern you, as you're neither a Turk, nor an Armenian? What does it mean to demonstrably show how you love and respect the Turks (and that's your right, of course, love whomever you want) against the Armenians? Don't you understand that such your attitude can be translated: "I love the Turks, so they can freely say whatever they want, they have my protection." And will not this make others feel some kind of fear or uneasiness that if they speak freely, they can be soon banned, falling out of your favour. If you really want this forum to be a place where people can freely speak and discuss, please, as the administrator and owner of this forum, don't show such an evident partiality.

And yes, I forgot the most important thing. Don't say to me, "Don't lecture, Missy Armenian".

[Loki]

If the Turks have impressed you, then you can't distinguish between lies and the truth.


I have been a forum administrator for more than 10 years .. and met THOUSANDS of people online ...



Besides, you are the super administrator of this forum and not just an ordinary member, don't you think that it is unwise on your side to show passionate attitude to those inter-national issues which don't directly concern you, as you're neither a Turk, nor an Armenian?

My personal views do not lead me to censor anyone ... those are just my personal views, and you are most welcome to disagree with me! :)

[poiuytrewq0987]

We have the same problem in Macedonia where Albanian rats have at least 4-6 children. It's also not helped with immigration from Kosovo who come for our privileged treatment of Shiptars. These Albanians often live in squalid conditions, especially those who have too many children. Few Albanians who do well are these who work aboard or have organized crime connections. Albanian birth rate is already falling to below replacement level. It's likely to continue falling as decadent Western ideas are introduced to the minds of fertile Albanian girls. ;)

That said, Ohrid Framework already guarantees our territorial integrity. We don't really have to worry about Albanians in Polog pulling a Kosovo because if they try we can always use the Framework to have the NATO back us up again like they backed us in 2001.

[shshmuk]

and you are most welcome to disagree with me! :)

I'm already so sad and disappointed that your words can't change anything...

However, thank you.

[Loki]

I'm already so sad and disappointed that your words can't change anything...

However, thank you.

Don't be sad that I don't share your views darling! :)

And, good to have you on the forum with us. I greatly appreciate a diversity of views here.

[shshmuk]

Don't be sad that I don't share your views darling! :)


If it were just so, I wouldn't be sad. But you're not just and you're very biased.


And, good to have you on the forum with us. I greatly appreciate a diversity of views here.

You greatly appreciate a diversity, I believe you, but you can't notice, sadly, that you yourself, by your partiality, ruin that diversity.

If you could overcome your partiality and dispassionately and calmly think about what I said, without the desire to "justify" yourself by all means, you would see that I was right.

Anyway, good luck!

[Pecheneg]

@shshmuk

Turkish Historians: "let's conduct research on Armenian genocide claims together"
Armenian Historians: "No"

This is the real problem.
btw it was a deportation, not a systematic killing of population.
you can't play the victim, while your armenian armed groups also killed hundreds of thousands of Turks&Kurds in eastern anatolia.

and what was the connection between this thread and armenian genocide?

[Onur]

If the Turks have impressed you, then you can't distinguish between lies and the truth. Just a recent example: please go to this (http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1012269&postcount=60) recent thread and see what kind of fairy-tale is written by Onur and when I replied to him, asking "Where did you find that information" and showed that what he had written didn't correspond to the reality, he didn't reply at all, thus truly showing he hadn't had any reliable source for his information. Now you read their lies and you are impressed?
I see that you responded to me in that thread less than 24h ago and you already concluded that i am a liar because i didnt respond to you at all! ad i am spreading fairytales here!!!

I DIDN'T EVEN SEE YOUR POST FFS. It`s been less than 20h that you sent that msg. Rather than waiting at least a day, you already concluded about me being a liar.

Ohh may God protect all of us from Armenians, sigh... I think the term "pain in the ass" invented by someone who were a subject to an Armenian`s whining and moaning.

OK OK wait a bit, i am gonna respond to you in there.

[Loki]

You greatly appreciate a diversity, I believe you, but you can't notice, sadly, that you yourself, by your partiality, ruin that diversity.


No, good luck to you! You have been here for less than a month, you know nothing about me whatsoever. Needless to say, you are the biased one around here, I can clearly see. And, I am a pretty good judge of character who has friends from every ethnicity ...

[Arorti]

I don't have a problem with Armenians :)

It's just that ... they seem to regard their issues as more important than anyone else's ... I have debated tirelessly with some on this forum last year. :(

They also seem to hold grudges over stuff that happened centuries ago ...



You sighed just cause i responded your turkish moderator and suggested that if they fought against kurds instead of us from the beginning,they would be much happier now,and they wouldnt be outnumbered in their own country.

Is that what you call hoding grudges over sutff that happened centuries ago ? :rolleyes:

If you think that i care about recognition of genocide and such BS you are so mistaken , i just saw a post about this issue and responded to it,thats all.

Also its obvious that you at least dont like armenians, cause i didnt see you doing anything when your turkish mod was crying about how his turkic cousins were beaten from us in karabagh and called for second genocide in karabagh to turn it back to azerbeijan, isnt that holding a grudge over stuff that happened 20 years ago ? :rolleyes:

[Grizzly]

We have the same problem in Macedonia where Albanian rats have at least 4-6 children. It's also not helped with immigration from Kosovo who come for our privileged treatment of Shiptars. These Albanians often live in squalid conditions, especially those who have too many children. Few Albanians who do well are these who work aboard or have organized crime connections. Albanian birth rate is already falling to below replacement level. It's likely to continue falling as decadent Western ideas are introduced to the minds of fertile Albanian girls. ;)

That said, Ohrid Framework already guarantees our territorial integrity. We don't really have to worry about Albanians in Polog pulling a Kosovo because if they try we can always use the Framework to have the NATO back us up again like they backed us in 2001.

lulz, I've never seen so much BS written in one post ever..