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Guapo
06-27-2009, 07:10 AM
The CIA predicts Europe in three parts: Western Europe, New Europe in including Croatia, and East or Orthodox Europe.


The American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has made predictions which should occur by 2020, which conceives Europe as a whole comprised of three parts: and one part would be called the Balkan federation. This should include the south-east of Europe, which is mainly inhabited by Orthodox peoples, writes Biznis.ba.

The CIA wants Europe to be split into three parts: a Western part which would be made from Germany, France, Great Britain and Austria, and another called New Europe which would include Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. Croatia should also join New Europe.

The divisions of the agency should stir the already not too calm waters in Bosnia Herzegovina, considering that this country has been marked into the ones that should be Orthodox, together with Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Macedonia and Greece. The interesting thing is that this division has appeared at a time when there has been fierce talks about constitutional changes in Bosnia Herzegovina, and in a time when they repeat that Belgrade should become a centre of power and decisions for that country.

After what has been mentioned, the question must be asked if the Croatian from Bosnia Herzegovina will accept entering that “Orthodox zone”, in which Bosnia Herzegovina should find itself with its Dayton management, and two entities.

Also, according to the CIA projection, in the “Catholic zone” the countries of eastern Europe would be under the military patronage of the USA, and Kosovo and Albania would fall under the “Orthodox zone”.

Collapse of EU and Croatia as a member of Catholic Europe

Another view comes from the other side of the world, Russia. But the CIA predicts that the EU could collapse because of the great economic crisis that Europe has found itself in, and that the entry of Balkan nations into it could not be carried out.

Of course, Moscow uses its plan in the moment of the economic crisis, in which they try to destabilize the position of the other side. Only time will be able to tell how much Russia’s speculations will influence the USA’s stance.

In the mean time, the CIA wants a division of Europe into three parts: a Western part which would be made from Germany, France, Great Britain and Austria, and another called New Europe which would include Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. Croatia should also join New Europe.

This would create a Catholic east Europe, that would also be under the military patronage of the USA.

http://www.javno.com/en-world/eu-collapse-by-2020-croatia-with-west_241061




CIA gives grim warning on European prospects



Published Date: 16 January 2005
By NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.


http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp

Útrám
06-27-2009, 09:34 AM
CIA's predictions have been Considerably InAccurate in the past and the ones which did materialize in some manner or another were self-fulfilling because of the CIA's own intervention. This however, is an exceptional article, nice to see all that American tax money go to something with credibility for once.

Kempenzoon
06-27-2009, 01:30 PM
The destruction of the EU would be wonderful. It would create a good opportunity for a new European cooperation model to begin. I like the idea of Europe being three blocks.

Phlegethon
06-27-2009, 01:41 PM
I predict the collapse of the CIA far sooner than that.

Poltergeist
06-27-2009, 08:09 PM
CIA's "predictions" simply means that what they are planning to set up and expecting that they would succeed in their endeavour. That's it.

Brännvin
06-28-2009, 12:34 PM
The predictions them is what matters to American foreign policy, that's all.

A german guy made this map in an other forum,

After the European Union dissolved.... hehe..the green is so real :D

<img src="http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/aa47/Fichtenbrenner/new%20album/europe_map.gif" border="0" alt="" />

SwordoftheVistula
06-28-2009, 04:52 PM
'United States of the Balkans'? What kind of fantasy is this guy living in :rolleyes: :D

Äike
06-28-2009, 05:13 PM
The predictions them is what matters to American foreign policy, that's all.

A german guy made this map in an other forum,

After the European Union dissolved.... hehe..the green is so real :D

<img src="http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/aa47/Fichtenbrenner/new%20album/europe_map.gif" border="0" alt="" />

That map is weird, Estonia doesn't fit into the USA area. Light blue USN would be more logical, as all our banks are owned by Scandinavian countries and the fact that Estonians speak Finnish and Swedish. Also the strong cultural ties between Estonia and the fellow Nordic countries. While cultural ties with the "USA" countries on the weird map are almost zero.

On what is the map based on anyway? Culture, religion, economy and geography are completely ignored on the map.

Northern-European/Nordic countries:
http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5488/europenortheuropeancoun.png

Brännvin
06-28-2009, 05:33 PM
Hey Karl, it was not me who made the map, but a funny german guy in an another forum, but I quite agree with you in case of Estonia..

I posted it here just for fun :P

Äike
06-28-2009, 05:38 PM
Hey Karl, it was not me who made the map, but a funny german guy in an another forum, but I quite agree with you in case of Estonia..

I posted it here just for fun :P

Yeah, it's quite a fun map. "United States of the Balkans" :laugh:

Lenny
07-02-2009, 04:09 AM
The title "CIA Predicts EU Collapse" is not accurate.

The CIA report they allude to is from 2004 or so. It approaches things from "How will the USA have to regard Europe geopolitically in light of changing population makeup?".
It outlines three scenarios; all three predict E.U. decline, but only one predicts ethnoreligious civil war(s) and "collapse". It specifically states that the civil-war scenario is the least likely.


Not a bang, but a whimper; as a poet once wrote.

Jarl
07-02-2009, 01:06 PM
That map is weird, Estonia doesn't fit into the USA area. Light blue USN would be more logical...

Oh, hell no! Are you nuts, Karl?! That would leave us in same union with the Balts! :mad:

Plz, don't go!

Äike
07-02-2009, 01:20 PM
Oh, hell no! Are you nuts, Karl?! That would leave us in same union with the Balts! :mad:

Plz, don't go!

Poland and Lithuania should have many historical and cultural ties. Especially the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Lithuanian_Commonwealth)
Latvia was also part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. So a new union shouldn't be that bad;)

sturmwalkure
07-05-2009, 10:40 PM
I hope the EU does collapse, along with the UN and NATO.